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Udemy (UDMY)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.185 | Market Cap: $777.3 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services

Udemy (UDMY)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.185
Market Cap: $777.3 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Education Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -34%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -115%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -139%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.3 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.7%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 291x
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 6.1%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.5%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Future of Education. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more.
  
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -34%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 6.1%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Future of Education. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -115%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -139%
5 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.3 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.7%
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 291x
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.5%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

UDMY Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points highlighting why Udemy (UDMY) stock moved by -23.9% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:

1. Weaker Q4 2025 Revenue Guidance: Despite beating Wall Street's revenue forecasts for Q3 2025, Udemy provided revenue guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025 that was below analysts' estimates. The midpoint of the guidance was $192.5 million, which was 2% below the analyst consensus of $196.4 million, suggesting a slower growth outlook.

2. Stalled or Flat Revenue Growth: Multiple reports indicated that Udemy's revenue growth was flat year-over-year in Q3 2025, and overall revenue growth was barely moving and expected to decelerate. This stalled growth in a competitive market led investors to cool on the stock.

3. Decline in Consumer Segment Revenue: The consumer segment of Udemy's business experienced a year-over-year revenue decline of 9.3% in Q3 2025. While the company is strategically shifting towards a subscription-first and enterprise-focused model, a shrinking consumer base can raise concerns among investors.

4. Decreased Free Cash Flow Margin: Udemy's free cash flow margin saw a significant decrease, falling from 19.5% in Q2 2025 to 6.2% in Q3 2025. A substantial drop in free cash flow generation can be viewed negatively by the market, impacting investor confidence.

5. Bearish Analyst Sentiment and Price Forecasts: During this period, analyst sentiment leaned bearish, with the consensus rating for UDMY shares being "Hold" based on a mix of buy, hold, and sell ratings. Furthermore, stock forecasts published in late November 2025 predicted a significant drop in UDMY's value, with a bearish sentiment and the "Fear & Greed Index" indicating "Fear."

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
UDMY Return---46%40%-44%-39%-74%
Peers Return24%-2%-18%-5%0%-12%-17%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
UDMY Win Rate-0%33%50%33%40% 
Peers Win Rate27%10%19%25%21%22% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
UDMY Max Drawdown---49%-20%-53%-40% 
Peers Max Drawdown-18%-6%-26%-19%-18%-15% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LOPE, FCHL, GV, MH, MKTR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventUDMYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-72.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven268.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to LOPE, FCHL, GV, MH, MKTR


In The Past

Udemy's stock fell -72.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/18/2021. A -72.9% loss requires a 268.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Udemy (UDMY)

Better Bets than Udemy (UDMY)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to UDMY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Udemy

Peers to compare with:

Financials

UDMYLOPEFCHLGVMHMKTRMedian
NameUdemy Grand Ca.Fitness .VisionaryMcGraw H.Monkey T. 
Mkt Price5.22153.720.341.4717.27-5.22
Mkt Cap0.84.3----2.5
Rev LTM7961,091--1,948-1,091
Op Inc LTM-5297--224-224
FCF LTM64242----153
FCF 3Y Avg16223----119
CFO LTM82279----180
CFO 3Y Avg31262----147

Growth & Margins

UDMYLOPEFCHLGVMHMKTRMedian
NameUdemy Grand Ca.Fitness .VisionaryMcGraw H.Monkey T. 
Rev Chg LTM2.5%7.0%--13.3%-7.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg10.1%6.5%----8.3%
Rev Chg Q0.1%9.6%--27.8%-9.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.0%2.1%--6.4%-2.1%
Op Mgn LTM-0.7%27.2%--11.5%-11.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-10.8%26.6%--6.2%-6.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.3%0.1%--4.4%-2.3%
CFO/Rev LTM10.3%25.6%----17.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg3.8%25.8%----14.8%
FCF/Rev LTM8.1%22.2%----15.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg1.8%21.8%----11.8%

Valuation

UDMYLOPEFCHLGVMHMKTRMedian
NameUdemy Grand Ca.Fitness .VisionaryMcGraw H.Monkey T. 
Mkt Cap0.84.3----2.5
P/S1.35.6----3.5
P/EBIT290.819.2----155.0
P/E-281.928.8-----126.5
P/CFO12.921.8----17.3
Total Yield-0.4%3.5%----1.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.8%5.1%----3.4%
D/E0.00.0----0.0
Net D/E-0.3-0.0-----0.2

Returns

UDMYLOPEFCHLGVMHMKTRMedian
NameUdemy Grand Ca.Fitness .VisionaryMcGraw H.Monkey T. 
1M Rtn-5.8%-16.1%-25.0%-5.2%58.4%--5.8%
3M Rtn-22.3%-25.2%--4.5%15.8%--13.4%
6M Rtn-32.1%-21.1%--31.3%---31.3%
12M Rtn-38.2%-7.6%--0.7%---7.6%
3Y Rtn-63.7%40.6%--85.8%---63.7%
1M Excs Rtn-5.7%-16.1%-25.0%-5.1%58.5%--5.7%
3M Excs Rtn-27.6%-30.4%-97.3%-6.0%11.2%--27.6%
6M Excs Rtn-46.8%-35.8%--46.0%---46.0%
12M Excs Rtn-48.0%-20.2%--14.8%---20.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-139.0%-33.7%--158.0%---139.0%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,941,631
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-7.9%
Average Daily Volume1,997,597
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.47
Basic Shares Quantity149,917,275
Short % of Basic Shares3.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024219202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024506202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023226202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021325202210-K 12/31/2021