Udemy (UDMY)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.185 | Market Cap: $777.3 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services
Udemy (UDMY)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.185Market Cap: $777.3 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Education Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -34% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -115%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -139% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.3 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.7% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 291x | |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.1% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.5% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Future of Education. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -34% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.1% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Future of Education. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -115%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -139% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.3 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.7% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 291x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.5% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
UDMY Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points highlighting why Udemy (UDMY) stock moved by -23.9% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Weaker Q4 2025 Revenue Guidance: Despite beating Wall Street's revenue forecasts for Q3 2025, Udemy provided revenue guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025 that was below analysts' estimates. The midpoint of the guidance was $192.5 million, which was 2% below the analyst consensus of $196.4 million, suggesting a slower growth outlook.
2. Stalled or Flat Revenue Growth: Multiple reports indicated that Udemy's revenue growth was flat year-over-year in Q3 2025, and overall revenue growth was barely moving and expected to decelerate. This stalled growth in a competitive market led investors to cool on the stock.
3. Decline in Consumer Segment Revenue: The consumer segment of Udemy's business experienced a year-over-year revenue decline of 9.3% in Q3 2025. While the company is strategically shifting towards a subscription-first and enterprise-focused model, a shrinking consumer base can raise concerns among investors.
4. Decreased Free Cash Flow Margin: Udemy's free cash flow margin saw a significant decrease, falling from 19.5% in Q2 2025 to 6.2% in Q3 2025. A substantial drop in free cash flow generation can be viewed negatively by the market, impacting investor confidence.
5. Bearish Analyst Sentiment and Price Forecasts: During this period, analyst sentiment leaned bearish, with the consensus rating for UDMY shares being "Hold" based on a mix of buy, hold, and sell ratings. Furthermore, stock forecasts published in late November 2025 predicted a significant drop in UDMY's value, with a bearish sentiment and the "Fear & Greed Index" indicating "Fear."
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| UDMY Return | - | - | -46% | 40% | -44% | -39% | -74% |
| Peers Return | 24% | -2% | -18% | -5% | 0% | -12% | -17% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| UDMY Win Rate | - | 0% | 33% | 50% | 33% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 27% | 10% | 19% | 25% | 21% | 22% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| UDMY Max Drawdown | - | - | -49% | -20% | -53% | -40% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -6% | -26% | -19% | -18% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LOPE, FCHL, GV, MH, MKTR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | UDMY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -72.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 268.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to LOPE, FCHL, GV, MH, MKTR
In The Past
Udemy's stock fell -72.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/18/2021. A -72.9% loss requires a 268.5% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Is Udemy Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | Return | ||
| Udemy (UDMY) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Udemy (UDMY) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Udemy (UDMY) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| Udemy (UDMY) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Udemy (UDMY) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Udemy (UDMY) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Udemy (UDMY) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Why Udemy Stock Moved: UDMY Stock Has Lost 75% Since 2021 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Unfavorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S) | |||
| UDMY Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | November 20th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to UDMY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.1% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.1% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Udemy
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 5.22 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.5 |
| Rev LTM | 1,091 |
| Op Inc LTM | 224 |
| FCF LTM | 153 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 119 |
| CFO LTM | 180 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 147 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.5 |
| P/S | 3.5 |
| P/EBIT | 155.0 |
| P/E | -126.5 |
| P/CFO | 17.3 |
| Total Yield | 1.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -13.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -31.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -7.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -63.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -27.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -46.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -20.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -139.0% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |