Chegg (CHGG)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $0.9124 | Market Cap: $97.5 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services
Chegg (CHGG)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $0.9124Market Cap: $97.5 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Education Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -141%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -170% | Penny stockMkt Price is 0.9 |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 25% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -117 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -23% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Education. Themes include Online Learning Platforms, Digital Learning Resources, and AI-Powered Education. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -26%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -36% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -214% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 114% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Education. Themes include Online Learning Platforms, Digital Learning Resources, and AI-Powered Education. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -141%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -170% |
| Penny stockMkt Price is 0.9 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -117 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -23% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -26%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -36% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -214% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 114% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CHGG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Significant impact of AI competition and free alternatives. The rise of free artificial intelligence software, such as ChatGPT, has profoundly impacted Chegg's business model by offering competitive and free alternatives to its paid subscription services. This has led to a reduction in customer willingness to pay and has been cited as a primary reason for past significant stock drops.
2. Consistent decline in subscriber numbers and revenue. Chegg has reported a steady decrease in both total net revenues and subscription services revenues year-over-year. For example, Q4 2024 financial results, reported on February 24, 2025, showed total net revenues decreased by 24% year-over-year, and subscription services revenues decreased by 23% year-over-year, with a 21% reduction in subscribers.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CHGG Return | 138% | -66% | -18% | -55% | -86% | -44% | -98% |
| Peers Return | -3% | 48% | -5% | 42% | 16% | -2% | 121% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CHGG Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 17% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 27% | 37% | 37% | 47% | 43% | 36% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CHGG Max Drawdown | -27% | -72% | -46% | -70% | -87% | -71% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -4% | -25% | -4% | -20% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LRN, COCO, GDEN, MATW, FCHL. See CHGG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CHGG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -93.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1413.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 48 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -37.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 216 days | 120 days |
Compare to LRN, COCO, GDEN, MATW, FCHL
In The Past
Chegg's stock fell -93.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -93.4% loss requires a 1413.5% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CHGG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.1% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.6% |
| 01312023 | CHGG | Chegg | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -50.2% | -52.6% | -63.9% |
| 05312022 | CHGG | Chegg | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 44.5% | -53.9% | -53.9% |
| 11302021 | CHGG | Chegg | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -30.1% | 7.1% | -40.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.1% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.6% |
| 01312023 | CHGG | Chegg | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -50.2% | -52.6% | -63.9% |
| 05312022 | CHGG | Chegg | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 44.5% | -53.9% | -53.9% |
| 11302021 | CHGG | Chegg | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -30.1% | 7.1% | -40.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Chegg
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 26.43 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.8 |
| Rev LTM | 643 |
| Op Inc LTM | 40 |
| FCF LTM | 53 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 67 |
| CFO LTM | 77 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 102 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -11.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -2.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | -4.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.8 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/EBIT | 17.3 |
| P/E | 20.5 |
| P/CFO | 17.0 |
| Total Yield | 2.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -23.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -18.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -14.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -29.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -7.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -28.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -89.0% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2242025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4292024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2202024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10302023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8072023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5012023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2212023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5022022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11012021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |