Dynatrace (DT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $44.45 | Market Cap: $13.4 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Dynatrace (DT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $44.45Market Cap: $13.4 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -67%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -52% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 65x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, and Cybersecurity. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, and Cybersecurity. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -67%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -52% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 65x |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
DT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining Dynatrace's (DT) stock movement by -12.2% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Continued Impact of Data Breach: The repercussions of a data breach in August 2025, where attackers compromised OAuth tokens and exfiltrated data from several companies including Dynatrace, continued to be a concern for investors as data stolen in the breach was reported to have been recently leaked. This ongoing security incident likely contributed to negative market sentiment due to potential reputational damage and future security risks.
2. Significant Drop in Free Cash Flow Margin: In its Q2 FY26 financial results, reported on November 5, 2025, Dynatrace's free cash flow margin saw a substantial decrease to 5.6%, down from 54.9% in the prior quarter. This significant reduction in cash generation could have been a major point of concern for investors.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DT Return | 71% | 39% | -37% | 43% | -1% | -17% | 77% |
| Peers Return | 14% | 8% | 8% | 33% | 69% | 852% | 2752% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DT Win Rate | 75% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 33% | 30% | 32% | 56% | 55% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DT Max Drawdown | -23% | -8% | -50% | -6% | -26% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -7% | -10% | -19% | -9% | -34% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FICO, MANH, DOX, BMR, BTTC. See DT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -61.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 161.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -46.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 64 days | 148 days |
Compare to FICO, MANH, DOX, BMR, BTTC
In The Past
Dynatrace's stock fell -61.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/22/2021. A -61.8% loss requires a 161.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to DT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 09192025 | DT | Dynatrace | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.2% | -7.2% | -10.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 09192025 | DT | Dynatrace | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.2% | -7.2% | -10.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Dynatrace
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 60.22 |
| Mkt Cap | 12.1 |
| Rev LTM | 1,853 |
| Op Inc LTM | 276 |
| FCF LTM | 556 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 508 |
| CFO LTM | 622 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 534 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 29.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 28.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 12.1 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| P/EBIT | 41.5 |
| P/E | 41.9 |
| P/CFO | 32.2 |
| Total Yield | 2.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -6.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -12.7% |
| 6M Rtn | -15.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -23.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 41.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -17.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -30.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -36.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -25.5% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5222025 | 10-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1302025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5232024 | 10-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2082024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5252023 | 10-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2012023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5262022 | 10-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2022022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |