Elastic (ESTC)
Market Price (5/13/2026): $50.1 | Market Cap: $5.2 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Elastic (ESTC)
Market Price (5/13/2026): $50.1Market Cap: $5.2 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -44% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 50% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cybersecurity, and Cloud Computing. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -96%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -29 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.7% Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 190x Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.5% Key risksESTC key risks include [1] a history of net losses and challenges in achieving consistent profitability, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -44% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 50% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cybersecurity, and Cloud Computing. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -96%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -29 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.7% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 190x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.5% |
| Key risksESTC key risks include [1] a history of net losses and challenges in achieving consistent profitability, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Despite beating Q3 FY2026 earnings estimates, Elastic's stock experienced a significant drop.
On February 26, 2026, Elastic reported its third-quarter fiscal 2026 results, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.73, exceeding analyst estimates of $0.66 to $0.64. Revenue also beat expectations, reaching $449.88 million against estimates of $438.37 million to $447.24 million, representing an 18% year-over-year increase. However, the stock price declined by 12.15% immediately following the earnings release. This suggests that despite strong operational performance, investors reacted negatively to other factors.
2. Revenue guidance for Q4 and the full fiscal year 2026 was perceived as soft, coupled with potential deceleration in cloud growth.
Elastic projected total revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 to be between $445 million and $447 million, indicating a 15% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. For the full fiscal year 2026, the company guided total revenue between $1.769 billion and $1.772 billion, a 17% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. While these figures represent growth, some analyses pointed to a possible deceleration in cloud growth compared to other vendors. Additionally, consensus revenue forecasts for fiscal year 2026 were later slightly downgraded from $1.69 billion to $1.67 billion.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -24.0% change in ESTC stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -28.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 65.93 | 50.09 | -24.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,609 | 1,677 | 4.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 4.4 | 3.1 | -28.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 107 | 105 | 2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -24.0% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ESTC | -24.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | 22.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | 21.9% | 32.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -43.9% change in ESTC stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -48.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 89.22 | 50.09 | -43.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,551 | 1,677 | 8.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 6.1 | 3.1 | -48.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 106 | 105 | 1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -43.9% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ESTC | -43.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.8% | 24.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | 16.9% | 34.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -41.9% change in ESTC stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -50.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 86.20 | 50.09 | -41.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,430 | 1,677 | 17.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 6.3 | 3.1 | -50.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 104 | 105 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -41.9% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ESTC | -41.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 34.6% | 24.8% |
| Sector (XLK) | 67.8% | 32.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -12.5% change in ESTC stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -41.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 57.25 | 50.09 | -12.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,028 | 1,677 | 63.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 5.3 | 3.1 | -41.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 96 | 105 | -8.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -12.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ESTC | -12.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 84.4% | 37.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 137.2% | 38.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ESTC Return | -16% | -58% | 119% | -12% | -24% | -33% | -66% |
| Peers Return | 39% | -48% | 90% | 11% | -4% | 16% | 70% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ESTC Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 58% | 67% | 50% | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 33% | 65% | 57% | 50% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ESTC Max Drawdown | -30% | -60% | -7% | -38% | -30% | -43% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -14% | -53% | -9% | -21% | -25% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DDOG, DT, CRWD, PANW, S. See ESTC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/12/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ESTC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -13.3% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.3% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 121 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -10.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -13.3% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.4% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 39 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -55.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 125.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 618 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -40.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -13.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.7% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 12 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Elastic's stock fell -13.3% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 15.4% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | ESTC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -55.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 125.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 618 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -40.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Elastic's stock fell -13.3% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 15.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Elastic (ESTC)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Elastic (ESTC):
The Google search engine for a company's own internal data and applications.
An enterprise-grade Splunk, but with a strong open-source foundation for search, logging, and security analytics.
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- Elasticsearch: A distributed, real-time search and analytics engine and data store for various types of data.
- Kibana: A user interface for managing, configuring, and visualizing data within the Elastic Stack.
- Beats: Single-purpose data shippers for sending data from edge machines to Elasticsearch or Logstash.
- Elastic Agent: An integrated agent that provides host protection and central management services.
- Logstash: A data processing pipeline for ingesting and transforming data before sending it to Elasticsearch or other storage systems.
- Elastic Solutions: Pre-built applications on the Elastic Stack addressing specific use cases such as app search, site search, logging, metrics, application performance management, and security analytics.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Elastic (ESTC) sells primarily to other companies (B2B), as evidenced by its focus on "enterprise applications" and solutions such as "logging, metrics, application performance management, business analytics, and security analytics," which are typically used by organizations. However, the provided background description does not list the specific names of major customer companies. The description broadly states that its "products are used by individual developers and organizations of a range of industries." Since specific names of major customer companies are not provided in the background, and the request explicitly asks for names if the company sells primarily to other companies, this request cannot be fully satisfied with the given information. nullAI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Ashutosh Kulkarni, Chief Executive Officer (CEO)
Ashutosh Kulkarni became the CEO of Elastic in January 2022, after joining the company as Chief Product Officer in 2021. Before his time at Elastic, Kulkarni held senior product leadership and management roles at several technology companies, including McAfee, Akamai, Informatica, and Sun Microsystems. Specifically, he served as SVP & GM of Web Security and Web Performance Businesses at Akamai Technologies, Inc. and as Chief Product Officer & Executive Vice President at McAfee Corp. He holds a Bachelor of Engineering from the University of Mumbai, a Master of Science in computer engineering from the University of Texas at Austin, and an MBA from the University of California, Berkeley.
Navam Welihinda, Chief Financial Officer (CFO)
Navam Welihinda serves as the Chief Financial Officer for Elastic.
Shay Banon, Founder and Chief Technology Officer (CTO)
Shay Banon is the founder of Elastic and currently serves as its Chief Technology Officer. His journey with search technology began in 2004 when he started building a recipe application, which led him to write the initial code for Elasticsearch in 2009. He founded Elastic in 2012, and the company went public in 2018. Before founding Elastic, Banon was the Director of Technology at GigaSpaces Technologies and also founded the open-source Java Search Engine library, Compass, in 2004.
Ken Exner, Chief Product Officer
Ken Exner is Elastic's Chief Product Officer. In this role, he leads the cross-functional product teams, focusing on developing customer-oriented solutions that balance flexibility and ease of use to help customers derive actionable insights from their data.
Carolyn Herzog, Chief Legal Officer
Carolyn Herzog holds the position of Chief Legal Officer at Elastic.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to Elastic (symbol: ESTC):- Intense Competition and Market Fragmentation: Elastic operates in a highly competitive software industry, facing strong rivals across its key segments, especially in Security and Observability. Competition also comes from large cloud providers, often referred to as "hyperscalers," who may offer similar services or leverage open-source technologies without direct compensation to Elastic. This intense competitive landscape makes it challenging for Elastic to maintain market share and pricing power.
- Challenges in Achieving Consistent Profitability and Managing Cloud Transition: Elastic has a history of losses and may struggle to achieve consistent profitability due to increasing operating expenses and potential revenue slowdowns. The ongoing shift towards cloud-based offerings and consumption-based revenue models introduces unpredictability to financial results, making it difficult to accurately forecast long-term customer adoption and the impact on revenue and operating margins.
- Risks Related to AI Integration and Innovation: Despite positioning itself as a "Search AI Company," Elastic faces uncertainty regarding the long-term impact of generative AI (GenAI) on its business models and margins. The company must constantly innovate to remain competitive, and there is a risk that competitors could integrate AI more effectively. Additionally, regulatory scrutiny and ethical concerns related to AI could present new challenges.
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The following are clear emerging threats for Elastic (ESTC):
- AWS OpenSearch: A direct, open-source fork of Elasticsearch and Kibana developed and managed by Amazon Web Services. This offering directly competes with Elastic's core products and its cloud services, particularly within the vast AWS ecosystem, presenting an ongoing and significant competitive challenge for market share and customer adoption.
- Specialized Vector Databases and the AI-native search paradigm: The rapid advancement and adoption of AI, particularly large language models (LLMs) and vector embeddings, are giving rise to specialized vector databases (e.g., Pinecone, Weaviate, Qdrant). These technologies are optimized for semantic search and retrieval augmented generation (RAG) on unstructured data, potentially offering a fundamentally different and more powerful approach to 'search' and 'analysis' than traditional keyword-based or inverted index systems. This shift could challenge Elastic's established position in certain advanced search and data intelligence use cases.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Elastic N.V. (ESTC) estimates its current total addressable market (TAM) to be $143 billion, with the potential to double by 2029. This market size is considered global.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Elastic (NYSE: ESTC) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market trends:
- Increased Elastic Cloud Adoption and Consumption: Elastic Cloud continues to be a significant growth engine, with a higher year-over-year revenue growth rate compared to the company's total revenue. This is fueled by continued customer traction in the cloud and increased consumption against contractual commitments. Customers are increasingly migrating and consolidating their workloads onto the Elastic platform in the cloud, contributing to this growth.
- Demand from Generative AI (GenAI) Use Cases: Elastic is experiencing strong customer interest and adoption in leveraging its platform, particularly Elasticsearch Relevance Engine (ESRE), to build Generative AI applications and power context for AI needs. The company is also enhancing its AI-powered platform with innovations like Agent Builder and integrations with partners like NVIDIA and Dell to accelerate AI deployments, further capitalizing on this market trend.
- Expansion within Existing Customers and Acquisition of High-Value Customers: Elastic's revenue growth is supported by a healthy net revenue retention rate, indicating that existing customers are increasing their spend and expanding their use of Elastic's solutions over time. The company is also consistently acquiring a significant number of new high-value customers, specifically those with an Annual Contract Value (ACV) greater than $100,000, which contributes to overall revenue expansion.
- Platform Consolidation and Broadening Use Cases Across Search, Security, and Observability: Customers are choosing to consolidate various data workloads onto the unified Elastic Stack for search, security, and observability. This consolidation helps customers lower their total spend while gaining comprehensive capabilities, thereby deepening their reliance on Elastic's platform. Elastic's continuous product innovation and ability to address diverse enterprise applications, from app search to security analytics, further drive demand and broader adoption of its offerings.
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Share Repurchases
- Elastic announced a share repurchase program of up to $500 million on October 9, 2025, which does not have an expiration date.
- The company anticipates utilizing more than 50% of this authorized amount in its fiscal year 2026.
- Elastic intends to return 50% of its free cash flow to shareholders through these repurchases, unless more compelling acquisition opportunities arise.
Share Issuance
- Elastic's shares outstanding increased from 0.087 billion in 2021 to 0.104 billion in 2024, with a slight decline of 0.31% from 2024 to 2025.
- As of October 31, 2025, the number of shares outstanding was 0.107 billion, reflecting a 3.24% year-over-year increase.
- Stock-based compensation, which was approximately 17% of revenues in a recent quarter, contributes to share issuance and is part of the company's equity incentive plan.
Outbound Investments
- Elastic completed the acquisition of Jina AI on October 9, 2025, to enhance its capabilities in vector search, retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), and context engineering for its Search AI Platform.
- The company acquired Keep Alerting Ltd ("Keep") on May 21, 2025, an open-source AIOps company, to integrate workflow automation into Search AI-powered applications and improve alert management.
- Elastic also made a strategic investment in Siren on December 2, 2025, to further develop Siren's AI-driven platform for national security, law enforcement, and financial crime agencies.
Capital Expenditures
- Elastic's capital expenditures have been consistently low, reported as less than 1% of revenue in November 2025.
- In the most recent 12 months, capital expenditures amounted to -$4.31 million.
- The company's capital expenditures growth is projected to be -16.5% for the current period, with an average growth forecast of 10.6% over the next five fiscal years.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to ESTC.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | PLTR | Palantir Technologies | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | ADSK | Autodesk | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.5% | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | BSY | Bentley Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | BL | BlackLine | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.2% | 3.2% | -3.0% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 125.02 |
| Mkt Cap | 41.2 |
| Rev LTM | 2,802 |
| Op Inc LTM | -27 |
| FCF LTM | 711 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 611 |
| CFO LTM | 806 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 679 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 20.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 23.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 19.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 28.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 29.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -1.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -1.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 24.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 41.2 |
| P/S | 10.7 |
| P/Op Inc | -98.5 |
| P/EBIT | 64.2 |
| P/E | 26.1 |
| P/CFO | 50.8 |
| Total Yield | 0.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.2% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 35.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 22.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -5.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -5.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 53.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 20.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 15.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -12.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -32.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -15.1% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $50.09 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 5.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/05/2018 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -47.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $49.99 | $71.05 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 0.2% | -29.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 60.1% | 49.0% |
| Downside Capture | 188.05 | 231.36 |
| Upside Capture | 47.66 | 90.15 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 15.0% | 25.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.68 | 0.54 | 1.16 | 1.11 | 1.06 | 1.37 |
| Up Beta | -0.16 | -0.35 | -0.03 | -0.05 | 0.45 | 1.09 |
| Down Beta | 1.02 | -0.15 | 0.29 | 0.91 | 0.27 | 1.25 |
| Up Capture | 44% | 66% | 89% | 74% | 97% | 287% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 19 | 29 | 60 | 126 | 376 |
| Down Capture | 692% | 147% | 251% | 193% | 169% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 24 | 35 | 65 | 125 | 373 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ESTC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESTC | -43.0% | 49.7% | -0.96 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 62.3% | 20.9% | 2.21 | 33.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 32.5% | 12.4% | 1.98 | 26.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 41.3% | 26.9% | 1.26 | -6.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 47.5% | 18.0% | 2.10 | 2.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.8% | 13.5% | 0.65 | 5.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -21.0% | 41.7% | -0.46 | 23.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ESTC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESTC | -15.1% | 58.6% | -0.05 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 21.7% | 24.8% | 0.77 | 51.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.7% | 17.1% | 0.63 | 49.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.0% | 17.9% | 0.95 | 4.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 13.4% | 19.1% | 0.57 | 11.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.9% | 18.8% | 0.11 | 33.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.2% | 55.9% | 0.34 | 26.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ESTC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESTC | -3.5% | 57.8% | 0.16 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 25.0% | 24.4% | 0.92 | 52.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 48.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.70 | 4.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.7% | 17.7% | 0.46 | 15.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 32.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.2% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 20.4% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/26/2026 | -15.4% | -13.9% | -21.2% |
| 11/20/2025 | -14.7% | -13.4% | -6.2% |
| 8/28/2025 | -3.1% | -1.2% | -0.9% |
| 5/29/2025 | -12.1% | -6.2% | -8.4% |
| 2/27/2025 | 14.9% | -1.9% | -9.5% |
| 11/21/2024 | 14.8% | 16.3% | 9.1% |
| 8/29/2024 | -26.5% | -32.3% | -25.9% |
| 5/30/2024 | 11.7% | 21.4% | 23.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 8 | 10 |
| # Negative | 14 | 16 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 13.7% | 18.8% | 16.5% |
| Median Negative | -9.3% | -7.0% | -10.7% |
| Max Positive | 37.1% | 40.9% | 32.6% |
| Max Negative | -26.5% | -32.3% | -28.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 01/31/2026 | 02/27/2026 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2025 | 11/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 06/10/2025 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2025 | 02/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2024 | 11/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 08/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 06/14/2024 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2024 | 03/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2023 | 12/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 09/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 08/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 06/21/2022 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Revenue | 445.00 Mil | 446.00 Mil | 447.00 Mil | 1.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 438.00 Mil for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Sales-led Subscription Revenue | 371.00 Mil | 372.00 Mil | 373.00 Mil | 1.9% | Higher New | Guidance: 365.00 Mil for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Operating Margin | 14.5% | -17.1% | -3.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 17.5% for Q3 2026 | ||
| Q4 2026 EPS | 0.55 | 0.56 | 0.57 | -12.5% | Lower New | Guidance: 0.64 for Q3 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue | 1.73 Bil | 1.74 Bil | 1.74 Bil | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 1.72 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Sales-led Subscription Revenue | 1.43 Bil | 1.44 Bil | 1.44 Bil | 1.1% | Raised | Guidance: 1.42 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Operating Margin | 16.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | Raised | Guidance: 16.25% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 EPS | 2.5 | 2.52 | 2.54 | 3.7% | Raised | Guidance: 2.43 for 2026 | |
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 11/20/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | 437.00 Mil | 438.00 Mil | 439.00 Mil | 5.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 416.00 Mil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Sales-led Subscription Revenue | 364.00 Mil | 365.00 Mil | 366.00 Mil | ||||
| Q3 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Margin | 17.5% | 9.4% | 1.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 16.0% for Q2 2026 | ||
| Q3 2026 Non-GAAP Diluted EPS | 0.63 | 0.64 | 0.65 | 12.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.57 for Q2 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue | 1.72 Bil | 1.72 Bil | 1.72 Bil | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 1.68 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Sales-led Subscription Revenue | 1.42 Bil | 1.42 Bil | 1.42 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Margin | 16.25% | 1.6% | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 16.0% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Diluted EPS | 2.4 | 2.43 | 2.46 | 4.7% | Raised | Guidance: 2.32 for 2026 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kulkarni, Ashutosh | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 3102026 | 52.28 | 17,756 | 928,284 | 21,390,101 | Form |
| 2 | Welihinda, Navam | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3102026 | 52.28 | 3,240 | 169,387 | 6,306,746 | Form |
| 3 | Herzog, Carolyn | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 3102026 | 52.28 | 3,989 | 208,545 | 4,461,314 | Form |
| 4 | Exner, Ken | Chief Product Officer | Direct | Sell | 3102026 | 52.28 | 4,310 | 225,327 | 11,644,220 | Form |
| 5 | Dodds, Mark Eugene | Chief Revenue Officer | Direct | Sell | 3102026 | 52.28 | 3,723 | 194,638 | 7,975,994 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Resources |
| The Verge |
| TechRadar |
| Tom’s Hardware |
| PCMag |
| CNET |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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