Tearsheet

Elastic (ESTC)


Market Price (5/13/2026): $50.1 | Market Cap: $5.2 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals

Elastic (ESTC)


Market Price (5/13/2026): $50.1
Market Cap: $5.2 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%

Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -44%

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 50%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cybersecurity, and Cloud Computing. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -96%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91%

Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -29 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.7%

Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 190x

Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%

Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.5%

Key risks
ESTC key risks include [1] a history of net losses and challenges in achieving consistent profitability, Show more.

0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -44%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 50%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cybersecurity, and Cloud Computing. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -96%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91%
6 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -29 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.7%
7 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 190x
8 Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%
9 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.5%
10 Key risks
ESTC key risks include [1] a history of net losses and challenges in achieving consistent profitability, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Elastic (ESTC) stock has lost about 25% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Despite beating Q3 FY2026 earnings estimates, Elastic's stock experienced a significant drop.

On February 26, 2026, Elastic reported its third-quarter fiscal 2026 results, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.73, exceeding analyst estimates of $0.66 to $0.64. Revenue also beat expectations, reaching $449.88 million against estimates of $438.37 million to $447.24 million, representing an 18% year-over-year increase. However, the stock price declined by 12.15% immediately following the earnings release. This suggests that despite strong operational performance, investors reacted negatively to other factors.

2. Revenue guidance for Q4 and the full fiscal year 2026 was perceived as soft, coupled with potential deceleration in cloud growth.

Elastic projected total revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 to be between $445 million and $447 million, indicating a 15% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. For the full fiscal year 2026, the company guided total revenue between $1.769 billion and $1.772 billion, a 17% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. While these figures represent growth, some analyses pointed to a possible deceleration in cloud growth compared to other vendors. Additionally, consensus revenue forecasts for fiscal year 2026 were later slightly downgraded from $1.69 billion to $1.67 billion.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -24.0% change in ESTC stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -28.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120265122026Change
Stock Price ($)65.9350.09-24.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,6091,6774.2%
P/S Multiple4.43.1-28.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1071052.0%
Cumulative Contribution-24.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2026 to 5/12/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ESTC-24.0% 
Market (SPY)7.0%22.5%
Sector (XLK)21.9%32.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The -43.9% change in ESTC stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -48.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)103120255122026Change
Stock Price ($)89.2250.09-43.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,5511,6778.1%
P/S Multiple6.13.1-48.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1061051.4%
Cumulative Contribution-43.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 5/12/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ESTC-43.9% 
Market (SPY)8.8%24.5%
Sector (XLK)16.9%34.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The -41.9% change in ESTC stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -50.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)43020255122026Change
Stock Price ($)86.2050.09-41.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,4301,67717.3%
P/S Multiple6.33.1-50.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)104105-0.4%
Cumulative Contribution-41.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2025 to 5/12/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ESTC-41.9% 
Market (SPY)34.6%24.8%
Sector (XLK)67.8%32.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The -12.5% change in ESTC stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -41.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)43020235122026Change
Stock Price ($)57.2550.09-12.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,0281,67763.1%
P/S Multiple5.33.1-41.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)96105-8.1%
Cumulative Contribution-12.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2023 to 5/12/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ESTC-12.5% 
Market (SPY)84.4%37.1%
Sector (XLK)137.2%38.7%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
ESTC Return-16%-58%119%-12%-24%-33%-66%
Peers Return39%-48%90%11%-4%16%70%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%8%97%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ESTC Win Rate50%33%58%67%50%20% 
Peers Win Rate65%33%65%57%50%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%60% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ESTC Max Drawdown-30%-60%-7%-38%-30%-43% 
Peers Max Drawdown-14%-53%-9%-21%-25%-24% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-7% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DDOG, DT, CRWD, PANW, S. See ESTC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/12/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventESTCS&P 500
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-13.3%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven15.3%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven121 days18 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-10.2%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven11.4%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven4 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-13.3%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven15.4%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven39 days31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-55.7%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven125.6%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven618 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-40.0%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven66.7%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven62 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-13.5%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven15.7%23.7%
  Time to Breakeven12 days105 days

Compare to DDOG, DT, CRWD, PANW, S

In The Past

Elastic's stock fell -13.3% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 15.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventESTCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-55.7%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven125.6%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven618 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-40.0%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven66.7%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven62 days140 days

Compare to DDOG, DT, CRWD, PANW, S

In The Past

Elastic's stock fell -13.3% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 15.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Elastic (ESTC)

Elastic N.V., a search company, delivers technology that enables users to search through structured and unstructured data for a range of consumer and enterprise applications. It primarily offers Elastic Stack, a set of software products that ingest and store data from various sources and formats, as well as perform search, analysis, and visualization. The company's Elastic Stack product comprises Elasticsearch, a distributed, real-time search and analytics engine, and data store for various types of data, including textual, numerical, geospatial, structured, and unstructured; Kibana, a user interface, management, and configuration interface for the Elastic Stack; Beats, a single-purpose data shippers for sending data from edge machines to Elasticsearch or Logstash; Elastic Agent that includes integrated host protection and central management services; and Logstash, a data processing pipeline for ingesting data into Elasticsearch or other storage systems. It also provides software solutions on the Elastic Stack that address cases, including app search, site search, workplace search, logging, metrics, application performance management, business analytics, and security analytics. Its products are used by individual developers and organizations of a range of industries. Elastic N.V. has a strategic partnership with Confluent, Inc. to enhance existing product integrations and jointly develop new capabilities that helps users to combine the benefits of the Elastic Stack and Kafka. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Elastic (ESTC):

  • The Google search engine for a company's own internal data and applications.

  • An enterprise-grade Splunk, but with a strong open-source foundation for search, logging, and security analytics.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Elasticsearch: A distributed, real-time search and analytics engine and data store for various types of data.
  • Kibana: A user interface for managing, configuring, and visualizing data within the Elastic Stack.
  • Beats: Single-purpose data shippers for sending data from edge machines to Elasticsearch or Logstash.
  • Elastic Agent: An integrated agent that provides host protection and central management services.
  • Logstash: A data processing pipeline for ingesting and transforming data before sending it to Elasticsearch or other storage systems.
  • Elastic Solutions: Pre-built applications on the Elastic Stack addressing specific use cases such as app search, site search, logging, metrics, application performance management, and security analytics.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Elastic (ESTC) sells primarily to other companies (B2B), as evidenced by its focus on "enterprise applications" and solutions such as "logging, metrics, application performance management, business analytics, and security analytics," which are typically used by organizations. However, the provided background description does not list the specific names of major customer companies. The description broadly states that its "products are used by individual developers and organizations of a range of industries." Since specific names of major customer companies are not provided in the background, and the request explicitly asks for names if the company sells primarily to other companies, this request cannot be fully satisfied with the given information. null

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

Ashutosh Kulkarni, Chief Executive Officer (CEO)

Ashutosh Kulkarni became the CEO of Elastic in January 2022, after joining the company as Chief Product Officer in 2021. Before his time at Elastic, Kulkarni held senior product leadership and management roles at several technology companies, including McAfee, Akamai, Informatica, and Sun Microsystems. Specifically, he served as SVP & GM of Web Security and Web Performance Businesses at Akamai Technologies, Inc. and as Chief Product Officer & Executive Vice President at McAfee Corp. He holds a Bachelor of Engineering from the University of Mumbai, a Master of Science in computer engineering from the University of Texas at Austin, and an MBA from the University of California, Berkeley.

Navam Welihinda, Chief Financial Officer (CFO)

Navam Welihinda serves as the Chief Financial Officer for Elastic.

Shay Banon, Founder and Chief Technology Officer (CTO)

Shay Banon is the founder of Elastic and currently serves as its Chief Technology Officer. His journey with search technology began in 2004 when he started building a recipe application, which led him to write the initial code for Elasticsearch in 2009. He founded Elastic in 2012, and the company went public in 2018. Before founding Elastic, Banon was the Director of Technology at GigaSpaces Technologies and also founded the open-source Java Search Engine library, Compass, in 2004.

Ken Exner, Chief Product Officer

Ken Exner is Elastic's Chief Product Officer. In this role, he leads the cross-functional product teams, focusing on developing customer-oriented solutions that balance flexibility and ease of use to help customers derive actionable insights from their data.

Carolyn Herzog, Chief Legal Officer

Carolyn Herzog holds the position of Chief Legal Officer at Elastic.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key risks to Elastic (symbol: ESTC):
  1. Intense Competition and Market Fragmentation: Elastic operates in a highly competitive software industry, facing strong rivals across its key segments, especially in Security and Observability. Competition also comes from large cloud providers, often referred to as "hyperscalers," who may offer similar services or leverage open-source technologies without direct compensation to Elastic. This intense competitive landscape makes it challenging for Elastic to maintain market share and pricing power.
  2. Challenges in Achieving Consistent Profitability and Managing Cloud Transition: Elastic has a history of losses and may struggle to achieve consistent profitability due to increasing operating expenses and potential revenue slowdowns. The ongoing shift towards cloud-based offerings and consumption-based revenue models introduces unpredictability to financial results, making it difficult to accurately forecast long-term customer adoption and the impact on revenue and operating margins.
  3. Risks Related to AI Integration and Innovation: Despite positioning itself as a "Search AI Company," Elastic faces uncertainty regarding the long-term impact of generative AI (GenAI) on its business models and margins. The company must constantly innovate to remain competitive, and there is a risk that competitors could integrate AI more effectively. Additionally, regulatory scrutiny and ethical concerns related to AI could present new challenges.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The following are clear emerging threats for Elastic (ESTC):

  • AWS OpenSearch: A direct, open-source fork of Elasticsearch and Kibana developed and managed by Amazon Web Services. This offering directly competes with Elastic's core products and its cloud services, particularly within the vast AWS ecosystem, presenting an ongoing and significant competitive challenge for market share and customer adoption.
  • Specialized Vector Databases and the AI-native search paradigm: The rapid advancement and adoption of AI, particularly large language models (LLMs) and vector embeddings, are giving rise to specialized vector databases (e.g., Pinecone, Weaviate, Qdrant). These technologies are optimized for semantic search and retrieval augmented generation (RAG) on unstructured data, potentially offering a fundamentally different and more powerful approach to 'search' and 'analysis' than traditional keyword-based or inverted index systems. This shift could challenge Elastic's established position in certain advanced search and data intelligence use cases.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Elastic N.V. (ESTC) estimates its current total addressable market (TAM) to be $143 billion, with the potential to double by 2029. This market size is considered global.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Elastic (NYSE: ESTC) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market trends:

  1. Increased Elastic Cloud Adoption and Consumption: Elastic Cloud continues to be a significant growth engine, with a higher year-over-year revenue growth rate compared to the company's total revenue. This is fueled by continued customer traction in the cloud and increased consumption against contractual commitments. Customers are increasingly migrating and consolidating their workloads onto the Elastic platform in the cloud, contributing to this growth.
  2. Demand from Generative AI (GenAI) Use Cases: Elastic is experiencing strong customer interest and adoption in leveraging its platform, particularly Elasticsearch Relevance Engine (ESRE), to build Generative AI applications and power context for AI needs. The company is also enhancing its AI-powered platform with innovations like Agent Builder and integrations with partners like NVIDIA and Dell to accelerate AI deployments, further capitalizing on this market trend.
  3. Expansion within Existing Customers and Acquisition of High-Value Customers: Elastic's revenue growth is supported by a healthy net revenue retention rate, indicating that existing customers are increasing their spend and expanding their use of Elastic's solutions over time. The company is also consistently acquiring a significant number of new high-value customers, specifically those with an Annual Contract Value (ACV) greater than $100,000, which contributes to overall revenue expansion.
  4. Platform Consolidation and Broadening Use Cases Across Search, Security, and Observability: Customers are choosing to consolidate various data workloads onto the unified Elastic Stack for search, security, and observability. This consolidation helps customers lower their total spend while gaining comprehensive capabilities, thereby deepening their reliance on Elastic's platform. Elastic's continuous product innovation and ability to address diverse enterprise applications, from app search to security analytics, further drive demand and broader adoption of its offerings.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • Elastic announced a share repurchase program of up to $500 million on October 9, 2025, which does not have an expiration date.
  • The company anticipates utilizing more than 50% of this authorized amount in its fiscal year 2026.
  • Elastic intends to return 50% of its free cash flow to shareholders through these repurchases, unless more compelling acquisition opportunities arise.

Share Issuance

  • Elastic's shares outstanding increased from 0.087 billion in 2021 to 0.104 billion in 2024, with a slight decline of 0.31% from 2024 to 2025.
  • As of October 31, 2025, the number of shares outstanding was 0.107 billion, reflecting a 3.24% year-over-year increase.
  • Stock-based compensation, which was approximately 17% of revenues in a recent quarter, contributes to share issuance and is part of the company's equity incentive plan.

Outbound Investments

  • Elastic completed the acquisition of Jina AI on October 9, 2025, to enhance its capabilities in vector search, retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), and context engineering for its Search AI Platform.
  • The company acquired Keep Alerting Ltd ("Keep") on May 21, 2025, an open-source AIOps company, to integrate workflow automation into Search AI-powered applications and improve alert management.
  • Elastic also made a strategic investment in Siren on December 2, 2025, to further develop Siren's AI-driven platform for national security, law enforcement, and financial crime agencies.

Capital Expenditures

  • Elastic's capital expenditures have been consistently low, reported as less than 1% of revenue in November 2025.
  • In the most recent 12 months, capital expenditures amounted to -$4.31 million.
  • The company's capital expenditures growth is projected to be -16.5% for the current period, with an average growth forecast of 10.6% over the next five fiscal years.

Better Bets vs. Elastic (ESTC)

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ENPH_4102026_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy04102026ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
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Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ESTCDDOGDTCRWDPANWSMedian
NameElastic Datadog DynatraceCrowdStr.Palo Alt.Sentinel. 
Mkt Price50.09199.9439.21546.18215.6015.74125.02
Mkt Cap5.270.611.8138.0151.85.341.2
Rev LTM1,6773,6721,9324,8129,8931,0012,802
Op Inc LTM-29-25251-2931,422-309-27
FCF LTM2579594631,2413,56652711
FCF 3Y Avg2028204031,0793,140-10611
CFO LTM2611,1134981,6123,97477806
CFO 3Y Avg2069274311,3873,38214679

Growth & Margins

ESTCDDOGDTCRWDPANWSMedian
NameElastic Datadog DynatraceCrowdStr.Palo Alt.Sentinel. 
Rev Chg LTM17.3%29.5%18.2%21.7%15.4%21.9%20.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg17.7%27.0%20.8%29.1%17.2%33.8%23.9%
Rev Chg Q17.7%32.2%18.2%23.3%14.9%20.2%19.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.2%7.1%4.3%5.4%3.5%4.8%4.5%
Op Inc Chg LTM65.5%-182.4%57.2%-152.0%50.9%6.2%28.6%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg46.0%17.2%40.8%-190.1%877.4%8.4%29.0%
Op Mgn LTM-1.7%-0.7%13.0%-6.1%14.4%-30.9%-1.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-5.9%0.3%10.6%-3.2%11.1%-43.6%-1.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.4%0.6%0.8%2.4%1.1%1.5%1.0%
CFO/Rev LTM15.6%30.3%25.8%33.5%40.2%7.7%28.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg14.0%31.9%26.3%35.5%39.0%0.3%29.1%
FCF/Rev LTM15.3%26.1%23.9%25.8%36.0%5.2%24.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg13.7%28.4%24.6%27.7%36.4%-2.7%26.2%

Valuation

ESTCDDOGDTCRWDPANWSMedian
NameElastic Datadog DynatraceCrowdStr.Palo Alt.Sentinel. 
Mkt Cap5.270.611.8138.0151.85.341.2
P/S3.119.26.128.715.35.310.7
P/Op Inc-180.0-2,868.247.0-470.4106.7-17.1-98.5
P/EBIT190.3425.147.0-1,394.081.4-17.164.2
P/E-61.9520.664.0-849.0118.4-11.726.1
P/CFO20.063.423.785.638.268.850.8
Total Yield-1.6%0.2%1.6%-0.1%0.8%-8.6%0.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.2%2.1%2.7%1.3%2.8%0.0%2.2%
D/E0.10.00.00.00.00.00.0
Net D/E-0.1-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1

Returns

ESTCDDOGDTCRWDPANWSMedian
NameElastic Datadog DynatraceCrowdStr.Palo Alt.Sentinel. 
1M Rtn15.7%89.8%21.2%44.1%38.4%31.8%35.1%
3M Rtn-21.0%54.2%6.5%32.1%30.3%14.6%22.5%
6M Rtn-47.0%1.1%-16.3%-1.9%-1.2%-8.9%-5.4%
12M Rtn-46.0%76.3%-22.3%27.2%11.4%-21.8%-5.2%
3Y Rtn-14.3%129.2%-15.8%319.4%116.4%-10.4%53.0%
1M Excs Rtn2.4%74.2%8.7%28.3%25.2%15.6%20.4%
3M Excs Rtn-27.6%47.6%-0.1%25.5%23.6%8.0%15.8%
6M Excs Rtn-54.3%-5.4%-27.0%-8.8%-8.4%-17.0%-12.9%
12M Excs Rtn-72.2%54.6%-50.2%2.3%-15.4%-48.6%-32.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-90.5%82.2%-89.7%267.1%55.5%-85.7%-15.1%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single Segment1,267    
Elastic Cloud 424299166 
Other subscription 561500401 
Services 84644135
License – self-managed    54
Subscription    339
Total1,2671,069862608428


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$50.09 
Market Cap ($ Bil)5.2 
First Trading Date10/05/2018 
Distance from 52W High-47.0% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$49.99$71.05
DMA Trenddowndown
Distance from DMA0.2%-29.5%
 3M1YR
Volatility60.1%49.0%
Downside Capture188.05231.36
Upside Capture47.6690.15
Correlation (SPY)15.0%25.4%
ESTC Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.680.541.161.111.061.37
Up Beta-0.16-0.35-0.03-0.050.451.09
Down Beta1.02-0.150.290.910.271.25
Up Capture44%66%89%74%97%287%
Bmk +ve Days15223166141428
Stock +ve Days9192960126376
Down Capture692%147%251%193%169%111%
Bmk -ve Days4183056108321
Stock -ve Days13243565125373

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ESTC
ESTC-43.0%49.7%-0.96-
Sector ETF (XLK)62.3%20.9%2.2133.4%
Equity (SPY)32.5%12.4%1.9826.2%
Gold (GLD)41.3%26.9%1.26-6.4%
Commodities (DBC)47.5%18.0%2.102.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)12.8%13.5%0.655.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-21.0%41.7%-0.4623.1%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ESTC
ESTC-15.1%58.6%-0.05-
Sector ETF (XLK)21.7%24.8%0.7751.8%
Equity (SPY)13.7%17.1%0.6349.9%
Gold (GLD)21.0%17.9%0.954.5%
Commodities (DBC)13.4%19.1%0.5711.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)3.9%18.8%0.1133.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)7.2%55.9%0.3426.9%

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Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ESTC
ESTC-3.5%57.8%0.16-
Sector ETF (XLK)25.0%24.4%0.9252.7%
Equity (SPY)15.5%17.9%0.7448.7%
Gold (GLD)13.4%15.9%0.704.8%
Commodities (DBC)9.7%17.7%0.4615.6%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.6%20.7%0.2432.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)68.2%66.8%1.0720.4%

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Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date4302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5.3 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 415202615.4%
Average Daily Volume1.7 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.1 days
Basic Shares Quantity104.5 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares5.1%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
2/26/2026-15.4%-13.9%-21.2%
11/20/2025-14.7%-13.4%-6.2%
8/28/2025-3.1%-1.2%-0.9%
5/29/2025-12.1%-6.2%-8.4%
2/27/202514.9%-1.9%-9.5%
11/21/202414.8%16.3%9.1%
8/29/2024-26.5%-32.3%-25.9%
5/30/202411.7%21.4%23.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive10810
# Negative141614
Median Positive13.7%18.8%16.5%
Median Negative-9.3%-7.0%-10.7%
Max Positive37.1%40.9%32.6%
Max Negative-26.5%-32.3%-28.7%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
01/31/202602/27/202610-Q
10/31/202511/24/202510-Q
07/31/202508/29/202510-Q
04/30/202506/10/202510-K
01/31/202502/28/202510-Q
10/31/202411/25/202410-Q
07/31/202408/30/202410-Q
04/30/202406/14/202410-K
01/31/202403/01/202410-Q
10/31/202312/01/202310-Q
07/31/202309/01/202310-Q
04/30/202306/16/202310-K
01/31/202303/03/202310-Q
10/31/202212/02/202210-Q
07/31/202208/29/202210-Q
04/30/202206/21/202210-K

Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]

Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q4 2026 Revenue445.00 Mil446.00 Mil447.00 Mil1.8% Higher NewGuidance: 438.00 Mil for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 Sales-led Subscription Revenue371.00 Mil372.00 Mil373.00 Mil1.9% Higher NewGuidance: 365.00 Mil for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 Operating Margin 14.5% -17.1%-3.0%Lower NewGuidance: 17.5% for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 EPS0.550.560.57-12.5% Lower NewGuidance: 0.64 for Q3 2026
2026 Revenue1.73 Bil1.74 Bil1.74 Bil1.0% RaisedGuidance: 1.72 Bil for 2026
2026 Sales-led Subscription Revenue1.43 Bil1.44 Bil1.44 Bil1.1% RaisedGuidance: 1.42 Bil for 2026
2026 Operating Margin 16.3% 0.3%0.0%RaisedGuidance: 16.25% for 2026
2026 EPS2.52.522.543.7% RaisedGuidance: 2.43 for 2026

Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 11/20/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q3 2026 Revenue437.00 Mil438.00 Mil439.00 Mil5.3% Higher NewGuidance: 416.00 Mil for Q2 2026
Q3 2026 Sales-led Subscription Revenue364.00 Mil365.00 Mil366.00 Mil   
Q3 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Margin 17.5% 9.4%1.5%Higher NewGuidance: 16.0% for Q2 2026
Q3 2026 Non-GAAP Diluted EPS0.630.640.6512.3% Higher NewGuidance: 0.57 for Q2 2026
2026 Revenue1.72 Bil1.72 Bil1.72 Bil2.0% RaisedGuidance: 1.68 Bil for 2026
2026 Sales-led Subscription Revenue1.42 Bil1.42 Bil1.42 Bil   
2026 Non-GAAP Operating Margin 16.25% 1.6%0.2%RaisedGuidance: 16.0% for 2026
2026 Non-GAAP Diluted EPS2.42.432.464.7% RaisedGuidance: 2.32 for 2026

Insider Activity

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#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Kulkarni, AshutoshChief Executive OfficerDirectSell310202652.2817,756928,28421,390,101Form
2Welihinda, NavamChief Financial OfficerDirectSell310202652.283,240169,3876,306,746Form
3Herzog, CarolynChief Legal OfficerDirectSell310202652.283,989208,5454,461,314Form
4Exner, KenChief Product OfficerDirectSell310202652.284,310225,32711,644,220Form
5Dodds, Mark EugeneChief Revenue OfficerDirectSell310202652.283,723194,6387,975,994Form

Industry Resources

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