Tearsheet

Elastic (ESTC)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $75.19 | Market Cap: $8.0 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software

Elastic (ESTC)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $75.19
Market Cap: $8.0 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Application Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -10%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -56%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -43%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -30 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.0%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 393x
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cybersecurity, and Cloud Computing. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more.
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.2%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -10%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cybersecurity, and Cloud Computing. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -56%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -43%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -30 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.0%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 393x
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.2%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ESTC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback



1. Elastic's Q1 Fiscal 2026 earnings, reported on August 28, 2025, showed a significant miss on earnings per share (EPS), reporting ($0.08) against a consensus estimate of $0.42.

2. Throughout October and November 2025, several analyst firms downgraded Elastic or reduced their price targets, signaling a more cautious outlook. For example, Scotiabank downgraded the stock from "Sector Outperform" to "Sector Perform" and lowered its price target by over 25% on October 6, 2025.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ESTC Return127%-16%-58%119%-12%-27%12%
Peers Return46%24%-19%21%54%848%2487%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ESTC Win Rate75%50%33%58%67%50% 
Peers Win Rate27%27%17%40%38%30% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ESTC Max Drawdown-31%-30%-60%-7%-38%-30% 
Peers Max Drawdown-9%-7%-22%-19%-12%-42% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DDOG, DT, BMR, BTTC, CCC. See ESTC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventESTCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-74.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven289.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-40.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven67.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven62 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-40.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven68.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven252 days120 days

Compare to DDOG, DT, BMR, BTTC, CCC


In The Past

Elastic's stock fell -74.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -74.3% loss requires a 289.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Elastic (ESTC)

Better Bets than Elastic (ESTC)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ESTC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Elastic

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ESTCDDOGDTBMRBTTCCCCMedian
NameElastic Datadog DynatraceBeamr Im.Black Ti.CCC Inte. 
Mkt Price75.02155.8344.452.223.427.5626.01
Mkt Cap7.954.313.4---13.4
Rev LTM1,5513,2121,853-21,0261,551
Op Inc LTM-30-43226--065-0
FCF LTM314865473--255393
FCF 3Y Avg185698413--216314
CFO LTM318988507--310412
CFO 3Y Avg188789441--271356

Growth & Margins

ESTCDDOGDTBMRBTTCCCCMedian
NameElastic Datadog DynatraceBeamr Im.Black Ti.CCC Inte. 
Rev Chg LTM17.4%26.6%18.5%--10.6%18.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg19.1%28.0%21.2%--10.2%20.2%
Rev Chg Q19.5%28.4%18.1%--12.0%18.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.6%6.5%4.3%--2.9%4.4%
Op Mgn LTM-2.0%-1.3%12.2%--3.8%6.3%-1.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-8.6%-1.1%10.4%--6.9%2.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.7%-0.8%0.9%---0.1%0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM20.5%30.8%27.4%--30.2%28.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg13.5%30.3%28.0%--29.0%28.5%
FCF/Rev LTM20.2%26.9%25.5%--24.9%25.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg13.2%26.8%26.3%--23.1%24.7%

Valuation

ESTCDDOGDTBMRBTTCCCCMedian
NameElastic Datadog DynatraceBeamr Im.Black Ti.CCC Inte. 
Mkt Cap7.954.313.4---13.4
P/S5.815.57.9---7.9
P/EBIT393.5363.564.7---363.5
P/E-107.0465.028.9---28.9
P/CFO28.150.228.8---28.8
Total Yield-0.9%0.2%3.5%---0.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%---0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.1%1.8%2.8%---2.1%
D/E0.10.00.0---0.0
Net D/E-0.1-0.1-0.1----0.1

Returns

ESTCDDOGDTBMRBTTCCCCMedian
NameElastic Datadog DynatraceBeamr Im.Black Ti.CCC Inte. 
1M Rtn-17.3%-3.9%-11.9%-12.3%-3.1%-13.3%-12.1%
3M Rtn-13.1%17.5%-11.5%-20.1%-14.5%-64.8%-13.8%
6M Rtn-10.5%30.2%-17.8%-30.6%-14.5%-64.8%-16.2%
12M Rtn-33.6%0.5%-22.4%-27.5%4,785.7%-64.8%-24.9%
3Y Rtn33.9%108.6%13.8%-3,320.0%-64.8%33.9%
1M Excs Rtn-17.3%-3.8%-11.9%-12.2%-3.1%-13.3%-12.1%
3M Excs Rtn-16.8%12.9%-16.0%-23.1%-19.8%-70.2%-18.3%
6M Excs Rtn-25.2%15.5%-32.6%-45.3%-29.2%-79.6%-30.9%
12M Excs Rtn-45.0%-11.5%-34.4%-45.7%4,643.1%-78.4%-39.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-42.9%39.3%-51.9%-3,299.3%-137.6%-42.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single Segment1,2671,069   
Elastic Cloud  299166 
Other subscription  500401 
Services  644135
License – self-managed    54
Subscription    339
Total1,2671,069862608428


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,288,171
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120253.8%
Average Daily Volume1,497,430
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.86
Basic Shares Quantity105,961,879
Short % of Basic Shares4.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
7312025829202510-Q 7/31/2025
4302025610202510-K 4/30/2025
1312025228202510-Q 1/31/2025
103120241125202410-Q 10/31/2024
7312024830202410-Q 7/31/2024
4302024614202410-K 4/30/2024
1312024301202410-Q 1/31/2024
103120231201202310-Q 10/31/2023
7312023901202310-Q 7/31/2023
4302023616202310-K 4/30/2023
1312023303202310-Q 1/31/2023
103120221202202210-Q 10/31/2022
7312022829202210-Q 7/31/2022
4302022621202210-K 4/30/2022
1312022310202210-Q 1/31/2022
103120211209202110-Q 10/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Bone Jane EGVP & CAO10142025Sell87.221,250109,0253,282,350Form