Tearsheet

Elastic (ESTC)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $74.68 | Market Cap: $8.0 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software

Elastic (ESTC)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $74.68
Market Cap: $8.0 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Application Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -10%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -79%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -38%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -34 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.1%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 310x
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cybersecurity, and Cloud Computing. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more.
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.5%
3   Key risks
ESTC key risks include [1] a history of net losses and challenges in achieving consistent profitability, Show more.
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -10%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cybersecurity, and Cloud Computing. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -79%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -38%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -34 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.1%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 310x
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.5%
7 Key risks
ESTC key risks include [1] a history of net losses and challenges in achieving consistent profitability, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ESTC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Elastic's shares experienced a significant 12% drop in November 2025, driven by broader market volatility, even though the company reported second-quarter results that surpassed expectations and raised its full-year guidance.

2. In late August 2025, Elastic's stock fell 3.6% as investors reacted to mixed guidance, where an improved full-year outlook was overshadowed by a missed earnings per share forecast for the upcoming third quarter, contributing to downward pressure near the start of the period.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ESTC Return127%-16%-58%119%-12%-24%17%
Peers Return-48%90%11%-2%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ESTC Win Rate75%50%33%58%67%50% 
Peers Win Rate67%33%65%57%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ESTC Max Drawdown-31%-30%-60%-7%-38%-30% 
Peers Max Drawdown-53%-9%-21%-25% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DDOG, DT, CRWD, PANW, S. See ESTC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventESTCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-74.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven289.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-40.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven67.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven62 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-40.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven68.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven252 days120 days

Compare to DDOG, DT, BMR, BTTC, CCC


In The Past

Elastic's stock fell -74.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -74.3% loss requires a 289.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Elastic (ESTC)

Better Bets than Elastic (ESTC)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ESTC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
10.4%10.4%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.7%10.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.2%12.2%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.2%4.2%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
10.4%10.4%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.7%10.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.2%12.2%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.2%4.2%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Elastic

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ESTCDDOGDTCRWDPANWSMedian
NameElastic Datadog DynatraceCrowdStr.Palo Alt.Sentinel. 
Mkt Price74.52136.7143.91470.02183.4414.48105.62
Mkt Cap7.947.713.2118.1138.35.930.5
Rev LTM1,6093,2121,8534,5659,5579562,532
Op Inc LTM-34-43226-3921,265-309-39
FCF LTM3028654731,1043,69145669
FCF 3Y Avg1906984131,0233,231-17555
CFO LTM3069885071,4603,97769748
CFO 3Y Avg1947894411,3123,4285615

Growth & Margins

ESTCDDOGDTCRWDPANWSMedian
NameElastic Datadog DynatraceCrowdStr.Palo Alt.Sentinel. 
Rev Chg LTM17.0%26.6%18.5%22.0%15.3%24.1%20.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg18.1%28.0%21.2%31.1%18.1%39.0%24.6%
Rev Chg Q15.9%28.4%18.1%22.2%15.7%22.9%20.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.7%6.5%4.3%5.2%3.6%5.3%4.7%
Op Mgn LTM-2.1%-1.3%12.2%-8.6%13.2%-32.4%-1.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-7.2%-1.1%10.4%-4.0%10.2%-47.8%-2.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.2%-0.8%0.9%0.1%-0.2%3.8%-0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM19.0%30.8%27.4%32.0%41.6%7.2%29.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg13.3%30.3%28.0%35.8%41.1%-1.2%29.2%
FCF/Rev LTM18.8%26.9%25.5%24.2%38.6%4.7%24.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg13.1%26.8%26.3%28.0%38.8%-4.1%26.6%

Valuation

ESTCDDOGDTCRWDPANWSMedian
NameElastic Datadog DynatraceCrowdStr.Palo Alt.Sentinel. 
Mkt Cap7.947.713.2118.1138.35.930.5
P/S4.915.57.925.914.56.111.2
P/EBIT309.9363.564.7-578.6--187.3
P/E-72.7465.028.9-376.0123.8-14.27.3
P/CFO25.950.228.880.934.885.142.5
Total Yield-1.4%0.2%3.5%-0.3%0.8%-7.0%-0.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.2%1.8%2.8%1.6%--2.0%
D/E0.10.00.00.0--0.0
Net D/E-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0---0.1

Returns

ESTCDDOGDTCRWDPANWSMedian
NameElastic Datadog DynatraceCrowdStr.Palo Alt.Sentinel. 
1M Rtn-14.8%-24.2%-2.7%-11.3%-9.6%-10.4%-10.8%
3M Rtn-14.5%1.8%-8.6%5.5%-9.7%-21.1%-9.2%
6M Rtn-10.7%5.1%-21.1%-3.1%-8.2%-17.8%-9.4%
12M Rtn-30.5%-12.9%-20.9%24.9%-8.8%-39.5%-16.9%
3Y Rtn34.2%75.7%13.5%321.5%143.0%3.6%54.9%
1M Excs Rtn-15.5%-24.9%-3.5%-12.0%-10.3%-11.1%-11.6%
3M Excs Rtn-18.2%-1.4%-11.0%-7.8%-12.2%-24.0%-11.6%
6M Excs Rtn-23.1%-7.3%-33.5%-15.5%-20.6%-30.2%-21.8%
12M Excs Rtn-39.5%-21.7%-30.4%16.6%-17.8%-50.5%-26.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-38.1%9.1%-53.8%228.1%58.3%-77.2%-14.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single Segment1,267    
Elastic Cloud 424299166 
Other subscription 561500401 
Services 84644135
License – self-managed    54
Subscription    339
Total1,2671,069862608428


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,720,108
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-13.2%
Average Daily Volume3,140,765
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.18
Basic Shares Quantity106,586,670
Short % of Basic Shares3.5%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/20/2025-14.7%-13.4% 
8/28/2025-3.1%-1.2%-0.9%
5/29/2025-12.1%-6.2%-8.4%
2/27/202514.9%-1.9%-9.5%
11/21/202414.8%16.3%9.1%
8/29/2024-26.5%-32.3%-25.9%
5/30/202411.7%21.4%23.9%
2/29/2024-12.6%-20.2%-24.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive11910
# Negative141615
Median Positive12.7%16.3%16.5%
Median Negative-9.3%-7.0%-11.6%
Max Positive37.1%40.9%32.6%
Max Negative-26.5%-32.3%-28.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
103120251124202510-Q 10/31/2025
7312025829202510-Q 7/31/2025
4302025610202510-K 4/30/2025
1312025228202510-Q 1/31/2025
103120241125202410-Q 10/31/2024
7312024830202410-Q 7/31/2024
4302024614202410-K 4/30/2024
1312024301202410-Q 1/31/2024
103120231201202310-Q 10/31/2023
7312023901202310-Q 7/31/2023
4302023616202310-K 4/30/2023
1312023303202310-Q 1/31/2023
103120221202202210-Q 10/31/2022
7312022829202210-Q 7/31/2022
4302022621202210-K 4/30/2022
1312022310202210-Q 1/31/2022

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Bone Jane EGVP & CAO10142025Sell87.221,250109,0253,282,350Form