Direct Digital (DRCT)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $0.1007 | Market Cap: $1.0 MilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Advertising
Direct Digital (DRCT)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $0.1007Market Cap: $1.0 MilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Advertising
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, and Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -149%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -169% | Penny stockMkt Price is 0.1 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -15 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -40% | ||
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 666% | ||
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -75%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -54% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -173% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 916% | ||
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 43% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, and Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -149%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -169% |
| Penny stockMkt Price is 0.1 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -15 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -40% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 666% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -75%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -54% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -173% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 916% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 43% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
DRCT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points explaining the approximate -78.7% stock movement for Direct Digital (DRCT) from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:
1. Significant Decline in Sell-Side Revenue and Overall Revenue: Direct Digital reported a substantial year-over-year consolidated revenue decrease in both Q2 2025 (reported August 5, 2025) and Q3 2025 (reported November 6, 2025). The Q2 2025 consolidated revenue was $10.1 million, down from $21.9 million in Q2 2024, with sell-side revenue dropping sharply from $14.3 million to $2.5 million due to decreased impression inventory. This trend continued into Q3 2025, with consolidated revenue decreasing 12% to $8.0 million from $9.1 million in Q3 2024, and sell-side advertising revenue falling further to $0.6 million from $2.2 million.
2. Increased Net Losses and Adjusted EBITDA Losses: The company reported increased net losses and adjusted EBITDA losses in its financial results. The net loss in Q2 2025 was $4.2 million, up from $3.1 million in Q2 2024, and the adjusted EBITDA loss was $1.5 million compared to $1.3 million in the prior year. For Q3 2025, the adjusted EBITDA loss was $3.0 million, compared to a loss of $2.9 million in Q3 2024.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DRCT Return | - | - | - | 514% | -89% | -94% | -96% |
| Peers Return | 94% | 12% | -23% | 25% | 16% | -29% | 71% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DRCT Win Rate | - | - | 40% | 33% | 42% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 51% | 40% | 58% | 55% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DRCT Max Drawdown | - | - | - | -14% | -96% | -91% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -36% | -18% | -43% | -14% | -19% | -39% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DV, TTD, OMC, IPG, MGNI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DRCT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -72.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 260.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 211 days | 464 days |
Compare to DV, TTD, OMC, IPG, MGNI
In The Past
Direct Digital's stock fell -72.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/31/2022. A -72.2% loss requires a 260.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to DRCT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -25.1% | -25.1% | -25.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -25.1% | -25.1% | -25.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Direct Digital
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 14.38 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.5 |
| Rev LTM | 1,762 |
| Op Inc LTM | 307 |
| FCF LTM | 420 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 382 |
| CFO LTM | 551 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 473 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.5 |
| P/S | 1.8 |
| P/EBIT | 16.4 |
| P/E | 31.9 |
| P/CFO | 10.2 |
| Total Yield | 2.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.0% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -14.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -29.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -28.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -48.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -22.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -15.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -33.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -43.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -61.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -92.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11132024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 10152024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 10152024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 10152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8112023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5152023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 4172023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8152022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5162022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3312022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 12312020 | 2142022 | 424B4 12/31/2020 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |