Krispy Kreme (DNUT)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $4.455 | Market Cap: $762.5 MilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Krispy Kreme (DNUT)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $4.455Market Cap: $762.5 MilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.7% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -110%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -137% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -58 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.8% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Experiential Retail, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 212% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 42x | ||
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -10%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.2% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.4% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -79% | ||
| Key risksDNUT key risks include [1] a precarious financial position due to net losses and significant debt, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.7% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Experiential Retail, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -110%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -137% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -58 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.8% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 212% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 42x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -10%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.2% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.4% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -79% |
| Key risksDNUT key risks include [1] a precarious financial position due to net losses and significant debt, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
DNUT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Krispy Kreme's Q3 2025 Earnings Significantly Surpassed Expectations on Profitability.
On November 6, 2025, Krispy Kreme (DNUT) reported an adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.01 for its third quarter, which considerably exceeded analysts' consensus estimates of a $0.05 loss per share. This positive earnings surprise led to a substantial increase in the stock price, with shares surging over 7% in pre-market trading and 10.08% in regular trading following the announcement.
2. The Company Demonstrated Significant Improvement in Adjusted EBITDA.
Krispy Kreme's adjusted EBITDA increased by 17% year-over-year, reaching $40.6 million in Q3 2025. The adjusted EBITDA margin also expanded by 170 basis points to 10.8%, signaling enhanced operational efficiency and effective cost management, which positively impacted investor confidence.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DNUT Return | � | � | -45% | 48% | -33% | -55% | � |
| Peers Return | 12% | 21% | 8% | -9% | -8% | -9% | 12% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DNUT Win Rate | � | 60% | 33% | 58% | 33% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 63% | 53% | 40% | 45% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DNUT Max Drawdown | � | � | -45% | 0% | -39% | -74% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -6% | -15% | -19% | -13% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SBUX, SJM, FLO, MDLZ, HSY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DNUT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -50.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 103.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to WMT, DG, WMK, IMKTA, COST
In The Past
Krispy Kreme's stock fell -50.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/1/2021. A -50.9% loss requires a 103.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to DNUT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.9% | -5.9% | -7.5% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.4% | 15.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.7% | 6.7% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.7% | -3.7% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.9% | -5.9% | -7.5% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.4% | 15.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.7% | 6.7% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.7% | -3.7% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Krispy Kreme
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 69.52 |
| Mkt Cap | 25.0 |
| Rev LTM | 10,034 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,744 |
| FCF LTM | 1,107 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,167 |
| CFO LTM | 1,557 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,730 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 25.0 |
| P/S | 1.7 |
| P/EBIT | 13.7 |
| P/E | 18.5 |
| P/CFO | 19.0 |
| Total Yield | 5.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 0.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -9.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | -20.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -12.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -21.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -90.1% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | 3.7% | 6.9% | 15.1% |
| 8/7/2025 | -7.0% | -0.6% | -1.2% |
| 5/8/2025 | -24.7% | -29.1% | -32.6% |
| 2/25/2025 | -21.9% | -33.1% | -40.6% |
| 11/7/2024 | -4.5% | -12.4% | -17.6% |
| 8/8/2024 | 13.5% | 12.2% | 25.3% |
| 5/9/2024 | 1.8% | -7.0% | -16.4% |
| 2/13/2024 | -4.8% | -4.7% | -13.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| # Negative | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.7% | 10.2% | 14.8% |
| Median Negative | -7.0% | -8.0% | -15.4% |
| Max Positive | 13.5% | 20.8% | 25.3% |
| Max Negative | -24.7% | -33.1% | -40.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/28/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/29/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/29/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11132023 | 10-Q 10/1/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8102023 | 10-Q 7/2/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5112023 | 10-Q 4/2/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3022023 | 10-K 1/1/2023 |
| 9302022 | 11152022 | 10-Q 10/2/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8172022 | 10-Q 7/3/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5112022 | 10-Q 4/3/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3112022 | 10-K 1/2/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |