Krispy Kreme (DNUT)
Market Price (3/14/2026): $3.28 | Market Cap: $561.4 MilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Krispy Kreme (DNUT)
Market Price (3/14/2026): $3.28Market Cap: $561.4 MilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 3.2% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -106%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -145% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -58 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.8% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Experiential Retail, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 251% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 35x | ||
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -10%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.2% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.4% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -92% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 3.2% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Experiential Retail, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -106%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -145% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -58 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.8% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 251% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 35x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -10%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.2% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.4% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -92% |
Qualitative Assessment
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Krispy Kreme (DNUT) stock has lost about 20% since 11/30/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Strategic Restructuring Leading to Near-Term Revenue Declines.
Krispy Kreme's ongoing strategic shift towards a capital-light, franchise-driven model involved the closure of underperforming U.S. locations, resulting in a 2.9% year-over-year decrease in Q4 2025 net revenue and a 3.9% decline in organic revenue. This deliberate reduction in sales, while aimed at long-term profitability, created significant near-term pressure on the company's top-line performance, dampening investor sentiment.
2. Persistent Unprofitability and High Financial Leverage.
Despite exceeding adjusted EPS estimates in Q4 2025, Krispy Kreme reported a GAAP net loss of $29.1 million for the quarter, contributing to a substantial full-year GAAP net loss of $523.8 million. The company's net leverage ratio remained elevated at 6.7x at the end of 2025, indicating a significant debt burden and weak profitability metrics, which raised investor concerns about its financial health and long-term sustainability.
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1. Strategic Restructuring Leading to Near-Term Revenue Declines.
Krispy Kreme's ongoing strategic shift towards a capital-light, franchise-driven model involved the closure of underperforming U.S. locations, resulting in a 2.9% year-over-year decrease in Q4 2025 net revenue and a 3.9% decline in organic revenue. This deliberate reduction in sales, while aimed at long-term profitability, created significant near-term pressure on the company's top-line performance, dampening investor sentiment.
2. Persistent Unprofitability and High Financial Leverage.
Despite exceeding adjusted EPS estimates in Q4 2025, Krispy Kreme reported a GAAP net loss of $29.1 million for the quarter, contributing to a substantial full-year GAAP net loss of $523.8 million. The company's net leverage ratio remained elevated at 6.7x at the end of 2025, indicating a significant debt burden and weak profitability metrics, which raised investor concerns about its financial health and long-term sustainability.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -21.8% change in DNUT stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -21.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.18 | 3.27 | -21.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,534 | 1,534 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.5 | 0.4 | -21.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 171 | 171 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -21.8% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DNUT | -21.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | -3.1% | 9.6% |
| Sector (XLP) | 6.8% | 7.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -7.9% change in DNUT stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -7.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.55 | 3.27 | -7.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,539 | 1,534 | -0.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.4 | 0.4 | -7.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 171 | 171 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -7.9% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DNUT | -7.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.0% | 18.2% |
| Sector (XLP) | 5.6% | 13.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -46.9% change in DNUT stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -42.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.16 | 3.27 | -46.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,665 | 1,534 | -7.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.6 | 0.4 | -42.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 170 | 171 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -46.9% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DNUT | -46.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.4% | 27.4% |
| Sector (XLP) | 4.0% | 18.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -74.1% change in DNUT stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -74.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 12.62 | 3.27 | -74.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,496 | 1,534 | 2.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.4 | 0.4 | -74.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 167 | 171 | -2.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -74.1% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DNUT | -74.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.4% | 22.3% |
| Sector (XLP) | 26.5% | 17.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DNUT Return | -10% | -45% | 48% | -33% | -59% | -19% | -84% |
| Peers Return | 21% | 8% | -9% | -8% | -11% | 7% | 6% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 80% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DNUT Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 58% | 33% | 33% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 53% | 40% | 45% | 38% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DNUT Max Drawdown | -39% | -45% | 0% | -39% | -74% | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -15% | -19% | -13% | -19% | -6% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -2% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: SBUX, SJM, FLO, MDLZ, HSY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DNUT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -50.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 103.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to SBUX, SJM, FLO, MDLZ, HSY
In The Past
Krispy Kreme's stock fell -50.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/1/2021. A -50.9% loss requires a 103.5% gain to breakeven.
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About Krispy Kreme (DNUT)
Krispy Kreme, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates through an omni-channel business model to provide doughnut experiences and produce doughnuts. The company operates through three segments: U.S. and Canada, International, and Market Development. It also produces cookies, brownies, cookie cakes, ice cream, cookie-wiches, and cold milk, as well as doughnut mixes, other ingredients, and doughnut-making equipment. As of January 2, 2022, the company had 1,810 Krispy Kreme and Insomnia Cookies-branded shops in approximately 30 countries worldwide, which include 971 company owned and 839 franchised. It serves through doughnut shops, delivered fresh daily outlets, ecommerce, and delivery business. The company was formerly known as Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. and changed its name to Krispy Kreme, Inc. in May 2021. Krispy Kreme, Inc. was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.
AI Analysis | Feedback
It's like the Starbucks of doughnuts and sweet treats.
Think of it as the McDonald's of doughnuts and quick-serve desserts.
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```html- Doughnuts: Their signature baked goods, offered through various channels like shops, delivery, and e-commerce.
- Other Baked Goods: Includes products such as cookies, brownies, and cookie cakes.
- Desserts and Beverages: Features items like ice cream, cookie-wiches, and cold milk.
- Doughnut Production Supplies: Comprises doughnut mixes, other ingredients, and doughnut-making equipment.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Krispy Kreme (symbol: DNUT) primarily sells to individuals. The company serves the following categories of customers:- Walk-in and Shop Customers: Individuals who purchase doughnuts, cookies, and other beverages directly from Krispy Kreme and Insomnia Cookies-branded retail shops for immediate consumption or to take home.
- Online and Delivery Customers: Individuals who order Krispy Kreme products through the company's e-commerce platforms (website or app) or via third-party delivery services for convenient home or office delivery.
- Customers of Retail Partners: Individuals who purchase Krispy Kreme products from grocery stores, convenience stores, and other "delivered fresh daily" outlets where Krispy Kreme supplies its products.
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The proliferation of agile, low-overhead virtual dessert brands and ghost kitchens represents an emerging threat. These entities leverage technology and a direct-to-consumer model via delivery platforms, allowing them to compete directly with Krispy Kreme's e-commerce and delivery business segments without the significant capital investment and operational overhead of traditional brick-and-mortar shops. This enables rapid product innovation, niche targeting, and potentially more competitive pricing in the delivered treat market, analogous to how Uber challenged traditional taxi services by offering a different operational model.
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Trade Ideas
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02272026 | BRBR | BellRing Brands | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | STZ | Constellation Brands | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | KMB | Kimberly-Clark | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -1.7% |
| 02062026 | AVO | Mission Produce | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.1% | 1.1% | -2.7% |
| 01022026 | CALM | Cal-Maine Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.0% | 12.0% | -7.7% |
| 11302021 | DNUT | Krispy Kreme | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.3% | 7.0% | -21.2% |
Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 77.02 |
| Mkt Cap | 27.7 |
| Rev LTM | 10,310 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,372 |
| FCF LTM | 1,360 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,276 |
| CFO LTM | 1,783 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,818 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 27.7 |
| P/S | 1.6 |
| P/EBIT | 14.6 |
| P/E | 25.5 |
| P/CFO | 17.5 |
| Total Yield | 4.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 1.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -6.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | -16.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 6.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -2.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -27.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -84.7% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $3.27 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/01/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -42.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $3.46 | $3.53 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -5.5% | -7.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 73.8% | 80.0% |
| Downside Capture | 128.42 | 150.75 |
| Upside Capture | -39.30 | 71.19 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 8.5% | 26.3% |
DNUT Betas & Captures as of 2/28/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.32 | 0.53 | 0.56 | 1.22 | 1.13 | 0.91 |
| Up Beta | 1.08 | 0.77 | 1.44 | 2.42 | 1.02 | 1.18 |
| Down Beta | 1.83 | 0.17 | 0.37 | 1.86 | 1.05 | 0.87 |
| Up Capture | 2% | 33% | 15% | 61% | 87% | 14% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 14 | 24 | 54 | 106 | 339 |
| Down Capture | -265% | 125% | 89% | 65% | 134% | 102% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 27 | 37 | 70 | 141 | 403 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DNUT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DNUT | -34.8% | 79.6% | -0.20 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 8.4% | 13.9% | 0.34 | 18.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.6% | 18.9% | 0.81 | 25.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 71.9% | 26.3% | 2.05 | -4.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.3% | 17.3% | 0.89 | 4.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.2% | 16.3% | 0.19 | 32.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -15.0% | 44.2% | -0.24 | 10.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DNUT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DNUT | -29.1% | 58.2% | -0.41 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 8.1% | 13.1% | 0.40 | 21.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.0% | 0.61 | 27.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.1% | 17.3% | 1.14 | 2.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 5.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 24.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.4% | 56.7% | 0.33 | 13.3% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DNUT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DNUT | -15.8% | 58.2% | -0.41 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.8% | 14.7% | 0.40 | 21.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 27.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.4% | 15.6% | 0.77 | 2.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 5.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 24.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.5% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 13.3% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/26/2026 | 27.8% | 23.7% | |
| 11/6/2025 | 3.7% | 6.9% | 15.1% |
| 8/7/2025 | -7.0% | -0.6% | -1.2% |
| 5/8/2025 | -24.7% | -29.1% | -32.6% |
| 2/25/2025 | -21.9% | -33.1% | -40.6% |
| 11/7/2024 | -4.5% | -12.4% | -17.6% |
| 8/8/2024 | 13.5% | 12.2% | 25.3% |
| 5/9/2024 | 1.8% | -7.0% | -16.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 9 |
| # Negative | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.7% | 11.1% | 14.8% |
| Median Negative | -7.0% | -8.0% | -15.4% |
| Max Positive | 27.8% | 23.7% | 25.3% |
| Max Negative | -24.7% | -33.1% | -40.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/13/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/02/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/15/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/17/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/11/2022 | 10-K |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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