Krispy Kreme (DNUT)
Market Price (6/27/2026): $3.56 | Market Cap: $612.4 MilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Krispy Kreme (DNUT)
Market Price (6/27/2026): $3.56Market Cap: $612.4 MilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Experiential Retail, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -103%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -143% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -25 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.6% Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 197% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.2% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -86% Key risksDNUT key risks include [1] a precarious financial position due to net losses and significant debt, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Experiential Retail, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -103%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -143% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -25 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.6% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 197% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.2% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -86% |
| Key risksDNUT key risks include [1] a precarious financial position due to net losses and significant debt, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Krispy Kreme (DNUT) stock has lost about 5% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Krispy Kreme reported a significant Earnings Per Share (EPS) miss for fiscal Q1 2026, which ended March 29, 2026. The company posted an EPS of -$0.05 on May 7, 2026, missing analysts' consensus expectations of -$0.02 by 150%. While quarterly revenue of $367.03 million slightly surpassed analyst estimates, it still represented a 2.2% decline year-over-year.
2. The company continues to grapple with ongoing financial losses despite its announced turnaround strategy. Krispy Kreme recorded a net income of -$515.77 million over the trailing twelve months, and its EPS for the last four quarters was -$2.99. The fiscal Q1 2026 results further reflected these challenges with net revenue declining 2.2%, indicating that the strategic initiatives focusing on "capital-light growth," expanded retail partnerships, and outsourced logistics have yet to yield consistent profitability.
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Krispy Kreme (DNUT) stock has lost about 5% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Krispy Kreme reported a significant Earnings Per Share (EPS) miss for fiscal Q1 2026, which ended March 29, 2026. The company posted an EPS of -$0.05 on May 7, 2026, missing analysts' consensus expectations of -$0.02 by 150%. While quarterly revenue of $367.03 million slightly surpassed analyst estimates, it still represented a 2.2% decline year-over-year.
2. The company continues to grapple with ongoing financial losses despite its announced turnaround strategy. Krispy Kreme recorded a net income of -$515.77 million over the trailing twelve months, and its EPS for the last four quarters was -$2.99. The fiscal Q1 2026 results further reflected these challenges with net revenue declining 2.2%, indicating that the strategic initiatives focusing on "capital-light growth," expanded retail partnerships, and outsourced logistics have yet to yield consistent profitability.
3. A class-action settlement related to a 2024 data breach created negative sentiment during the period. Krispy Kreme agreed to pay a $1.6 million settlement for a data breach that exposed personal information of 161,676 current and former employees. News regarding the deadline to file claims (June 22, 2026) and the upcoming court decision (July 6, 2026) on final approval occurred within the specified timeframe, potentially impacting investor confidence.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -5.6% change in DNUT stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/26/2026 was primarily driven by a -3.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.75 | 3.54 | -5.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,534 | 1,514 | -1.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.4 | 0.4 | -3.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 171 | 172 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -5.6% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DNUT | -5.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 6.6% | 9.3% |
| Sector (XLP) | -5.4% | 13.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -15.3% change in DNUT stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/26/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.18 | 3.54 | -15.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,534 | 1,514 | -1.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.5 | 0.4 | -13.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 171 | 172 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -15.3% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DNUT | -15.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.3% | 8.2% |
| Sector (XLP) | 8.2% | 8.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 22.5% change in DNUT stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/26/2026 was primarily driven by a 30.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.89 | 3.54 | 22.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,598 | 1,514 | -5.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.3 | 0.4 | 30.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 170 | 172 | -1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 22.5% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DNUT | 22.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 25.1% | 17.7% |
| Sector (XLP) | 5.1% | 13.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -75.6% change in DNUT stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/26/2026 was primarily driven by a -74.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 14.52 | 3.54 | -75.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,576 | 1,514 | -3.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.5 | 0.4 | -74.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 168 | 172 | -2.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -75.6% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DNUT | -75.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.3% | 21.5% |
| Sector (XLP) | 26.5% | 17.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DNUT Return | -10% | -45% | 48% | -33% | -59% | -11% | -82% |
| Peers Return | 21% | 8% | -9% | -8% | -11% | 6% | 4% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 7% | 96% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DNUT Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 58% | 33% | 33% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 53% | 40% | 45% | 38% | 63% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DNUT Max Drawdown | - | -45% | -26% | -47% | -74% | -34% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -11% | -20% | -27% | -20% | -28% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: SBUX, SJM, FLO, MDLZ, HSY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/26/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DNUT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 165 days | 24 days |
In The Past
Krispy Kreme's stock fell -5.5% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 5.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | DNUT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 165 days | 24 days |
In The Past
Krispy Kreme's stock fell -5.5% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 5.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Krispy Kreme (DNUT)
Krispy Kreme, Inc. (DNUT) is a global omni-channel sweet treats company primarily known for its doughnuts. The company focuses on providing distinctive doughnut experiences and producing a wide range of doughnuts, making its products accessible to a broad customer base worldwide.
While Krispy Kreme is most famous for its iconic doughnuts, its product offerings extend to include other sweet treats such as cookies, brownies, cookie cakes, ice cream, and specialty cold milk beverages. The company also supplies doughnut mixes and doughnut-making equipment, supporting its extensive network. Krispy Kreme operates a significant global footprint with over 1,800 branded shops, including Krispy Kreme and Insomnia Cookies locations, spanning approximately 30 countries and comprising both company-owned and franchised establishments.
Krispy Kreme serves its primary customers – individual consumers and broader markets – through a diverse distribution model. This includes traditional doughnut shops, daily fresh deliveries to various retail outlets, and a growing e-commerce and direct delivery business. Its operations are segmented across the U.S. and Canada, International markets, and Market Development, ensuring a wide reach and catering to consumers in numerous local and international regions.
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It's like the Starbucks of doughnuts and sweet treats.
Think of it as the McDonald's of doughnuts and quick-serve desserts.
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- Doughnuts: Their signature baked goods, offered through various channels like shops, delivery, and e-commerce.
- Other Baked Goods: Includes products such as cookies, brownies, and cookie cakes.
- Desserts and Beverages: Features items like ice cream, cookie-wiches, and cold milk.
- Doughnut Production Supplies: Comprises doughnut mixes, other ingredients, and doughnut-making equipment.
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- Walk-in and Shop Customers: Individuals who purchase doughnuts, cookies, and other beverages directly from Krispy Kreme and Insomnia Cookies-branded retail shops for immediate consumption or to take home.
- Online and Delivery Customers: Individuals who order Krispy Kreme products through the company's e-commerce platforms (website or app) or via third-party delivery services for convenient home or office delivery.
- Customers of Retail Partners: Individuals who purchase Krispy Kreme products from grocery stores, convenience stores, and other "delivered fresh daily" outlets where Krispy Kreme supplies its products.
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Josh Charlesworth, President and Chief Executive Officer
Josh Charlesworth became the President and CEO of Krispy Kreme, Inc. effective January 1, 2024. He previously served as Global President (2022–2023), Chief Operating Officer (2019–2023), Chief Financial Officer (2017–2023), and Corporate Secretary (2018–2020) at the company. Charlesworth joined Krispy Kreme in 2017. Prior to his time at Krispy Kreme, he worked for Mars and Wrigley. He holds a B.Sc. in Economics from the London School of Economics.
Raphael Duvivier, Chief Financial Officer
Raphael Duvivier was appointed Chief Financial Officer, effective July 11, 2025. Before this role, he served as President of International, a position he assumed on January 9, 2025. He was also previously the Chief Development Officer for the brand.
Nicola Steele, Chief Operating Officer
Nicola Steele has been named the incoming Chief Operating Officer, a role she will assume on March 3, 2025. She is responsible for global operations excellence, including modernizing doughnut production and maximizing hub-and-spoke efficiency. Before this appointment, Steele was the President of Krispy Kreme Australia & New Zealand and brings over 15 years of experience with Krispy Kreme.
Dave Skena, Chief Growth Officer
Dave Skena was named Chief Growth Officer, effective January 6, 2025. In this role, he is responsible for omni-channel growth across retail shops, delivered fresh daily (DFD), and digital sales channels worldwide, as well as managing global marketing efforts. Skena previously served as Chief Marketing Officer and Global Director of Brand at Krispy Kreme, joining the company in November 2018. His career background includes working at Kraft Foods and PepsiCo, where he led brands such as Lay's, Ruffles, SunChips, Tostitos, and Lay's Dips. He also held the position of Chief Marketing Officer at Ruby Tuesdays, where he assisted in their transition from public to private ownership.
Alison Holder, Chief Product Officer
Alison Holder was named Chief Product Officer, effective January 6, 2025. She is responsible for bringing innovative, fresh doughnuts to Krispy Kreme fans globally and for global quality and sourcing. Holder has 25 years of experience at Krispy Kreme, having previously served as VP of innovation and insights.
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Key Risks to Krispy Kreme (DNUT)
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Structural Weakness in Business Model and Execution Risk of Turnaround
Krispy Kreme's business model, characterized by a significant number of company-owned stores, production hubs, and an extensive delivery network, is capital-intensive and has historically faced challenges in delivering sustainable operating profits and a strong return on invested capital, unlike more asset-light competitors. The company is currently undergoing a strategic pivot to address this, including refranchising efforts and optimizing its "hub-and-spoke" distribution model. However, this turnaround strategy inherently carries significant execution risks, which have been underscored by recent non-cash impairment charges linked to underperforming assets and the termination of partnerships, such as the one with McDonald's USA.
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Intense Competition and Evolving Consumer Preferences
Krispy Kreme operates in a highly competitive global food service industry with relatively low barriers to entry. The company faces formidable competition from a wide array of players, including large quick-service restaurant chains, specialized coffee shops, grocery store bakeries, and numerous local independent establishments. Furthermore, there is an ongoing risk that shifting consumer preferences toward healthier food options could limit the long-term growth in demand for indulgent products like doughnuts, thereby impacting Krispy Kreme's market share and revenue potential.
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Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Commodity Price Volatility
Krispy Kreme's operations are exposed to supply chain risks due to its reliance on a limited number of vendors for essential ingredients, including a single supplier for its proprietary glaze flavoring and restricted vendors for other critical components. Any disruption in the supply or distribution of these key materials could negatively impact the company's production and operational continuity. Additionally, Krispy Kreme's profitability is sensitive to fluctuations in the cost of raw materials and other commodities, and the company may not always be able to fully offset these inflationary pressures through price increases, which could adversely affect its financial performance.
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The proliferation of agile, low-overhead virtual dessert brands and ghost kitchens represents an emerging threat. These entities leverage technology and a direct-to-consumer model via delivery platforms, allowing them to compete directly with Krispy Kreme's e-commerce and delivery business segments without the significant capital investment and operational overhead of traditional brick-and-mortar shops. This enables rapid product innovation, niche targeting, and potentially more competitive pricing in the delivered treat market, analogous to how Uber challenged traditional taxi services by offering a different operational model.
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Krispy Kreme (DNUT) operates in several addressable markets related to its main products, primarily doughnuts, cookies, and ice cream.
Doughnuts
- The global doughnuts market was valued at approximately $13.7 billion in 2023. It is projected to reach $18.8 billion by 2033. Another estimate places the global doughnut market at $11.22 billion in 2024, with an anticipated rise to $15.12 billion by 2032.
- In the U.S. alone, the doughnut market was valued at approximately $9.5 billion in 2022. The market size for Doughnut Stores in the U.S. was $9.6 billion in 2025.
Cookies
- The global cookies market was valued at $26.90 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $43.49 billion by 2032. Another source estimated the global cookies market size at $40.25 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach $65.95 billion by 2033.
- The U.S. cookies market size was estimated at $10.17 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $17.90 billion by 2035. The North America cookies market, which includes the U.S., was valued at $12.6 billion and is projected to reach $20.23 billion by the end of 2030.
Ice Cream
- The global ice cream market size was estimated at $80.9 billion in 2024. Another estimate valued it at $82.70 billion in 2025, with a projection to grow to $151.96 billion by 2034.
- The U.S. ice cream market size was estimated at approximately $22 billion in 2024. It was also reported to be $21.64 billion in 2025, with an expectation to reach $29.99 billion by 2033.
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1. U.S. Expansion through Strategic Partnerships and Increased Points of Access: Krispy Kreme is significantly expanding its presence across the U.S., notably through a nationwide partnership with McDonald's, aiming for full rollout by the end of 2026. This initiative, along with partnerships with other major retailers like Target, is projected to substantially increase the number of "Delivered Fresh Daily" (DFD) doors where its doughnuts are sold. The company's strategy involves leveraging its existing production hubs to serve a greater number of these retail locations, aiming for over 100 points of access per hub by 2026, up from approximately 50.
2. Capital-Light International Franchise Growth and New Market Entry: A core component of Krispy Kreme's growth strategy is the expansion of its international footprint through a capital-light franchise model. The company plans to open at least 100 new shops globally in 2026 and targets entering 3 to 5 new international franchise markets per year. This includes strategic refranchising deals, such as the agreement for Japan, and anticipated expansion into new territories like Spain, Germany, and Brazil.
3. Growth in Digital Sales and Loyalty Program Engagement: Krispy Kreme has seen robust growth in its digital sales, with a 15% year-over-year increase in 2025 and digital sales representing 22.5% of U.S. retail sales in Q4 2025. The company's loyalty platform has also surpassed 17 million members in the U.S., indicating a strong and growing direct-to-consumer channel that contributes to organic revenue growth. Continued investment in e-commerce and loyalty programs is expected to drive further sales.
4. Enhanced Operational Efficiency Supporting Profitable Growth: While not a direct revenue driver, improvements in operational efficiency, such as the optimization of the "hub-and-spoke" network and the outsourcing of logistics, are critical for enabling sustainable and profitable revenue growth. By reducing capital expenditures and improving profitability per door, Krispy Kreme can more effectively fund and execute its expansion plans in both domestic and international markets. The company expects to achieve stronger free cash flow in 2026 due to these efficiencies.
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Share Repurchases
- Krispy Kreme's 1-Year Share Buyback Ratio was -0.90% as of September 2025, suggesting no significant share repurchases or potential issuance during that period.
Share Issuance
- Krispy Kreme completed an Initial Public Offering (IPO) in 2021, raising $500 million.
Outbound Investments
- In the second quarter of 2025, Krispy Kreme sold its remaining ownership stake in Insomnia Cookies for $75 million, with the proceeds used to reduce debt.
- The company agreed to sell its operations in Japan to Unison Capital, Inc. for an estimated $65 million, with the transaction expected to close in the first quarter of 2026 and proceeds directed toward debt reduction.
- Krispy Kreme expanded into Brazil in March 2025 through a minority interest joint venture with Ipiranga's AmPm.
Capital Expenditures
- Krispy Kreme is significantly reducing its capital expenditures; full-year 2025 CapEx dropped 19% from 2024, and 2026 CapEx is projected to be nearly half of 2025's level.
- Expected capital expenditures for 2026 are guided to be between $50 million and $60 million.
- The company's capital expenditure strategy focuses on reducing capital intensity by utilizing existing assets and prioritizing franchise development, as part of a shift towards a more capital-light business model.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 82.69 |
| Mkt Cap | 24.4 |
| Rev LTM | 10,521 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,533 |
| FCF LTM | 1,504 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,270 |
| CFO LTM | 1,912 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,793 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -17.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $3.54 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/01/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -24.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $3.61 | $3.64 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | up |
| Distance from DMA | -2.0% | -2.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 57.5% | 74.1% |
| Downside Capture | 9.66 | 85.06 |
| Upside Capture | 36.99 | 100.27 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 5.6% | 16.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.70 | 1.22 | 0.91 | 0.78 | 1.34 | 0.95 |
| Up Beta | 2.28 | 1.08 | 0.77 | 0.93 | 0.95 | 1.18 |
| Down Beta | -1.04 | -0.40 | 1.02 | 0.77 | 1.67 | 0.96 |
| Up Capture | -56% | 87% | 59% | 40% | 143% | 14% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 23 | 35 | 59 | 115 | 343 |
| Down Capture | 230% | 281% | 132% | 111% | 131% | 105% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 18 | 28 | 65 | 132 | 399 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DNUT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DNUT | 51.6% | 73.6% | 0.86 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.8% | 13.1% | 0.31 | 13.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.2% | 12.4% | 1.26 | 16.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.8% | 27.7% | 0.70 | -7.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 21.8% | 18.6% | 0.92 | -7.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 16.1% | 13.6% | 0.85 | 27.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -44.7% | 42.5% | -1.27 | 11.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DNUT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DNUT | -28.0% | 58.2% | -0.35 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.0% | 13.4% | 0.30 | 20.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.1% | 0.61 | 26.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.8% | 18.3% | 0.79 | 0.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 19.5% | 0.28 | 3.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.9% | 0.08 | 24.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.7% | 54.0% | 0.39 | 12.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DNUT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DNUT | -15.1% | 58.2% | -0.35 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.4% | 14.8% | 0.37 | 20.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 18.0% | 0.72 | 26.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.8% | 16.1% | 0.60 | 0.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.9% | 18.0% | 0.26 | 3.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 24.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 54.6% | 66.4% | 0.95 | 12.9% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/10/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -1.1% | -10.1% | -4.6% |
| 2/26/2026 | 27.8% | 23.7% | 14.4% |
| 11/6/2025 | 3.7% | 6.9% | 15.1% |
| 8/7/2025 | -7.0% | -0.6% | -1.2% |
| 5/8/2025 | -24.7% | -29.1% | -32.6% |
| 2/25/2025 | -21.9% | -33.1% | -40.6% |
| 11/7/2024 | -4.5% | -12.4% | -17.6% |
| 8/8/2024 | 13.5% | 12.2% | 25.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 3.7% | 11.1% | 14.6% |
| Median Negative | -7.0% | -9.0% | -14.4% |
| Max Positive | 27.8% | 23.7% | 25.3% |
| Max Negative | -24.7% | -33.1% | -40.6% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -1.1% | -10.1% | -4.6% |
| 2/26/2026 | 27.8% | 23.7% | 14.4% |
| 11/6/2025 | 3.7% | 6.9% | 15.1% |
| 8/7/2025 | -7.0% | -0.6% | -1.2% |
| 5/8/2025 | -24.7% | -29.1% | -32.6% |
| 2/25/2025 | -21.9% | -33.1% | -40.6% |
| 11/7/2024 | -4.5% | -12.4% | -17.6% |
| 8/8/2024 | 13.5% | 12.2% | 25.3% |
| 5/9/2024 | 1.8% | -7.0% | -16.4% |
| 2/13/2024 | -4.8% | -4.7% | -13.4% |
| 11/9/2023 | -6.5% | -0.7% | -2.6% |
| 8/10/2023 | -13.7% | -8.0% | -8.9% |
| 5/11/2023 | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| 2/15/2023 | 6.8% | 9.5% | 16.9% |
| 11/15/2022 | 2.3% | 10.2% | 2.6% |
| 8/17/2022 | -12.1% | -16.5% | -15.4% |
| 5/11/2022 | 3.8% | 18.7% | 11.9% |
| 2/22/2022 | 8.4% | 8.5% | 5.5% |
| 11/9/2021 | 3.0% | 12.0% | 14.8% |
| 8/17/2021 | -6.9% | 20.8% | 16.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 3.7% | 11.1% | 14.6% |
| Median Negative | -7.0% | -9.0% | -14.4% |
| Max Positive | 27.8% | 23.7% | 25.3% |
| Max Negative | -24.7% | -33.1% | -40.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/06/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/13/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/02/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/15/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/17/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/06/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/13/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/02/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/15/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/17/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/11/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/10/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/18/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 07/02/2021 | 424B4 |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 5/31/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 1.25 Bil | 1.30 Bil | 1.35 Bil | -33.7% | Lower New | Actual: 1.96 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.0% for 2026 |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 140.00 Mil | 145.00 Mil | 150.00 Mil | Higher New | |||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 50.00 Mil | 55.00 Mil | 60.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 55.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 15.00 Mil | Higher New | |||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Japan Refranchising Proceeds | 65.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | Higher New | Actual: 1.96E11% for 2025 | ||
| 2026 New Shop Openings | 100 | Higher New | Actual: 2,125 for 2025 | ||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 50.00 Mil | 55.00 Mil | 60.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Net Leverage Ratio | 5.5 | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/16/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hees, Bernardo | Held by BHBK LLC | Buy | 6082026 | 3.49 | 25,002 | 87,167 | 5,489,807 | Form | |
| 2 | Hees, Bernardo | Held by BHBK LLC | Buy | 6042026 | 3.29 | 150,000 | 493,440 | 5,097,673 | Form | |
| 3 | Hees, Bernardo | Held by BHBK LLC | Buy | 6042026 | 3.35 | 170,596 | 570,644 | 4,681,772 | Form | |
| 4 | Hees, Bernardo | Held by BHBK LLC | Buy | 6042026 | 3.39 | 235,875 | 799,616 | 4,166,435 | Form | |
| 5 | Hees, Bernardo | Held by BHBK LLC | Buy | 6042026 | 3.44 | 73,640 | 253,027 | 3,412,505 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hees, Bernardo | Held by BHBK LLC | Buy | 6082026 | 3.49 | 25,002 | 87,167 | 5,489,807 | Form | |
| 2 | Hees, Bernardo | Held by BHBK LLC | Buy | 6042026 | 3.29 | 150,000 | 493,440 | 5,097,673 | Form | |
| 3 | Hees, Bernardo | Held by BHBK LLC | Buy | 6042026 | 3.35 | 170,596 | 570,644 | 4,681,772 | Form | |
| 4 | Hees, Bernardo | Held by BHBK LLC | Buy | 6042026 | 3.39 | 235,875 | 799,616 | 4,166,435 | Form | |
| 5 | Hees, Bernardo | Held by BHBK LLC | Buy | 6042026 | 3.44 | 73,640 | 253,027 | 3,412,505 | Form | |
| 6 | Hees, Bernardo | Held by BHBK LLC | Buy | 5282026 | 3.42 | 200,989 | 687,503 | 3,145,317 | Form | |
| 7 | Hees, Bernardo | Held by BHBK LLC | Buy | 5282026 | 3.38 | 22,114 | 74,701 | 2,427,204 | Form | |
| 8 | Hees, Bernardo | Held by BHBK LLC | Buy | 5282026 | 3.30 | 1,974 | 6,514 | 2,298,183 | Form | |
| 9 | Esposito, Joseph J | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 4.28 | 2,641 | 11,294 | 458,257 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Consumer Staples Resources |
| FoodNavigator |
| Consumer Goods Technology (CGT) |
| Beverage Digest |
| Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail Resources |
| Mass Market Retailers |
| Store Brands |
| Retail Dive |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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