Lithium Americas (LAC)
Market Price (10/31/2025): $5.69 | Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Lithium Americas (LAC)
Market Price (10/31/2025): $5.69Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -24% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -82%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -155% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -31 Mil | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.9% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 128% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -24% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -82%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -155% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -31 Mil |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.9% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 128% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
LAC Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LAC Return | 296% | 132% | -35% | -66% | -54% | 89% | 112% |
| Peers Return | 34% | 3% | 14% | -7% | -11% | 50% | 96% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LAC Win Rate | 83% | 50% | 42% | 25% | 42% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 33% | 27% | 32% | 32% | 28% | 76% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LAC Max Drawdown | -32% | -4% | -36% | -69% | -67% | -21% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -10% | -9% | -15% | -17% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VALE, WRN, XPL, ALM, CRML.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/30/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LAC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -85.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 602.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -63.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 173.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 129 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -64.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 181.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 597 days | 120 days |
Compare to VALE, WRN, XPL, ALM, CRML
In The Past
Lithium Americas's stock fell -85.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/29/2021. A -85.8% loss requires a 602.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Day 6 of Loss Streak for Lithium Americas Stock with -24% Return (vs. -14% YTD) [7/30/2025] | Notification | ||
| Day 5 of Loss Streak for Lithium Americas Stock with -21% Return (vs. -11% YTD) [7/29/2025] | Notification | ||
| LAC Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Lithium Americas Total Shareholder Return (TSR): -53.6% in 2024 and -53.3% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Can Lithium Americas Stock Double Again? | October 21st, 2025 | ||
| Lithium Americas Stock A Buy? | September 26th, 2025 | ||
| LAC Stock Down -24% after 6-Day Loss Streak | July 31st, 2025 | ||
| LAC Stock Down -21% after 5-Day Loss Streak | July 30th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LAC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09302025 | AXTA | Axalta Coating Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.0% | 3.0% | -7.8% |
| 09302025 | GPK | Graphic Packaging | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -16.8% | -16.8% | -16.8% |
| 09302025 | FCX | Freeport-McMoRan | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 8.0% | 8.0% | -0.9% |
| 07312025 | KWR | Quaker Houghton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.5% | 14.5% | 0.0% |
| 06302025 | TGLS | Tecnoglass | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -23.1% | -23.1% | -23.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09302025 | AXTA | Axalta Coating Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.0% | 3.0% | -7.8% |
| 09302025 | GPK | Graphic Packaging | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -16.8% | -16.8% | -16.8% |
| 09302025 | FCX | Freeport-McMoRan | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 8.0% | 8.0% | -0.9% |
| 07312025 | KWR | Quaker Houghton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.5% | 14.5% | 0.0% |
| 06302025 | TGLS | Tecnoglass | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -23.1% | -23.1% | -23.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Lithium Americas
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 6.19 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.8 |
| Rev LTM | 0 |
| Op Inc LTM | -8 |
| FCF LTM | -22 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -13 |
| CFO LTM | -5 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -4 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | -10.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -2.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -22.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -5.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -20.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -23.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -12.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -94.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -74.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.8 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/EBIT | -16.1 |
| P/E | -17.0 |
| P/CFO | -16.6 |
| Total Yield | -2.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -7.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 77.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 90.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 36.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 22.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 68.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 69.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 18.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -56.5% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/14/2025 | -3.1% | -7.5% | -3.1% |
| 3/28/2025 | -5.9% | -5.9% | -1.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | -4.5% | -6.7% | -2.4% |
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | -5.9% | -7.5% | -3.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8142025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5152025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5132024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3182024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11132023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 10042023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 12312022 | 8222023 | 20FR12B 12/31/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |