Lithium Americas (LAC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.19 | Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Lithium Americas (LAC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.19Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -51% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -71%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -151% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, Renewable Energy Transition, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Advanced Battery Components, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -31 Mil |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 128% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -51% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, Renewable Energy Transition, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Advanced Battery Components, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -71%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -151% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -31 Mil |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 128% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LAC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Surging Lithium Prices: Lithium Americas' stock experienced a significant uplift due to a notable increase in global lithium prices, with prices jumping by 18.45% in November 2025 alone.
2. US Government Financial Support and Potential Equity Stake: The company secured a crucial $2.23 billion loan from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for its Thacker Pass project, including an initial $435 million drawdown by October 2025, which fully funded the project and significantly reduced bankruptcy risk. Additionally, reports of the U.S. government considering a 10% equity stake in Lithium Americas, tied to the renegotiation of this loan, further boosted investor sentiment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LAC Return | 296% | 132% | -35% | -66% | -54% | 82% | 70% |
| Peers Return | 28% | 15% | 14% | -4% | -3% | 33% | 108% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LAC Win Rate | 83% | 50% | 42% | 25% | 42% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 37% | 28% | 33% | 32% | 34% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LAC Max Drawdown | -32% | -4% | -36% | -69% | -67% | -21% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -35% | -6% | -9% | -13% | -12% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WRN, XPL, CRML, NEXM, TECK.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LAC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -85.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 602.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -63.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 173.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 129 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -64.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 181.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 597 days | 120 days |
Compare to WRN, XPL, CRML, NEXM, TECK
In The Past
Lithium Americas's stock fell -85.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/29/2021. A -85.8% loss requires a 602.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Day 6 of Loss Streak for Lithium Americas Stock with -24% Return (vs. -14% YTD) [7/30/2025] | Notification | ||
| Day 5 of Loss Streak for Lithium Americas Stock with -21% Return (vs. -11% YTD) [7/29/2025] | Notification | ||
| LAC Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Lithium Americas Total Shareholder Return (TSR): -53.6% in 2024 and -53.3% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Can Lithium Americas Stock Double Again? | October 21st, 2025 | ||
| Lithium Americas Stock A Buy? | September 26th, 2025 | ||
| LAC Stock Down -24% after 6-Day Loss Streak | July 31st, 2025 | ||
| LAC Stock Down -21% after 5-Day Loss Streak | July 30th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LAC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Lithium Americas
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 4.53 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.8 |
| Rev LTM | 0 |
| Op Inc LTM | -8 |
| FCF LTM | -45 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -31 |
| CFO LTM | -5 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -4 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 29.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -12.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 18.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -3.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -7.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.8 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/EBIT | -11.1 |
| P/E | -11.9 |
| P/CFO | -11.7 |
| Total Yield | -4.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -8.0% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 36.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 93.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 7.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 9.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 34.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 79.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 8.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -48.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8142025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5152025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5132024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3182024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11132023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 10042023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 12312022 | 8222023 | 20FR12B 12/31/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |