Sigma Lithium (SGML)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $11.18 | Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Sigma Lithium (SGML)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $11.18Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -29% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -111%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -143% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -12 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8.9% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, Renewable Energy Transition, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Advanced Battery Components, Show more. | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 118% | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.2% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -29% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, Renewable Energy Transition, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Advanced Battery Components, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -111%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -143% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -12 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8.9% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 118% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.2% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -29% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SGML Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the 62.9% stock movement for Sigma Lithium (SGML) from approximately August 31, 2025, to today:
**1. Recovery in Lithium Prices and Bullish Market Forecasts:** The stock experienced a significant uplift due to a notable recovery in lithium prices and optimistic projections for future demand. Notably, in November, the chairman of Ganfeng Lithium Group, the world's second-largest lithium processor, made bullish comments predicting a 30% to 40% surge in lithium demand in 2026, which significantly boosted market sentiment and drove lithium prices to 18-month highs in anticipation of global demand recovery.
**2. Strong Q3 2025 Revenue Performance Driven by Higher Realized Prices:** Despite some analyst expectations not being met for total revenue, Sigma Lithium reported a substantial 69% increase in revenue for its third quarter. This growth was primarily attributed to 61% higher average realized lithium prices, which positively impacted investor confidence, even with a 15% decline in sales volumes.
**3. Operational Enhancements and Cost Reduction Initiatives:** Sigma Lithium consistently delivered on its production targets, as demonstrated by its Q2 2025 results. Furthermore, the company announced strategic upgrades to its mining operations during Q3 2025, aiming to reduce plant gate costs by approximately 20% and enhance overall efficiency.
**4. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Upgraded Price Targets:** Contributing to the stock's upward trend were positive revisions from various analysts. In early December, a Bank of America analyst notably raised Sigma Lithium's price target from $7 to $11, citing strengthening lithium prices and increased EBITDA estimates.
**5. Strategic Expansion Plans and Debt Reduction:** The company's future growth strategy, including plans for a second Greentech plant slated for 2026 to potentially double production capacity, along with aggressive cost-cutting measures such as a 48% reduction in short-term debt through November 2025, further bolstered investor confidence in its long-term prospects.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SGML Return | -7% | 760% | 171% | 12% | -64% | 4% | 800% |
| Peers Return | 93% | 477% | -28% | 558514% | -50% | 85% | 4133038% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SGML Win Rate | 8% | 33% | 67% | 67% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 27% | 44% | 38% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SGML Max Drawdown | -7% | 0% | -16% | -23% | -72% | -62% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -2% | -33% | -39% | -61% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ALB, LAC, SLI, ATLX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SGML | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -48.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 94.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -21.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 539 days | 148 days |
Compare to WRN, XPL, CRML, NEXM, TECK
In The Past
Sigma Lithium's stock fell -48.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/17/2023. A -48.7% loss requires a 94.8% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| With Sigma Lithium Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | Return | ||
| Day 6 of Loss Streak for Sigma Lithium Stock with -30% Return (vs. -55% YTD) [8/1/2025] | Notification | ||
| Day 5 of Loss Streak for Sigma Lithium Stock with -28% Return (vs. -54% YTD) [7/31/2025] | Notification | ||
| SGML Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Day 5 of Gains Streak for Sigma Lithium Stock with 24% Return (vs. -65% YTD) [8/21/2024] | Notification | ||
| Fundamental Metrics: ... | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| SGML Stock Down -30% after 6-Day Loss Streak | August 2nd, 2025 | ||
| SGML Stock Down -28% after 5-Day Loss Streak | August 1st, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SGML. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.7% | 6.7% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 40.6% | 40.6% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.4% | 17.4% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.7% | 4.7% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.7% | 6.7% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 40.6% | 40.6% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.4% | 17.4% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.7% | 4.7% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Sigma Lithium
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 5.12 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.7 |
| Rev LTM | 0 |
| Op Inc LTM | -20 |
| FCF LTM | -32 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -50 |
| CFO LTM | -20 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -14 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -23.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1,440.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | -3.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -8.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -16.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 5.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -15.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 0.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -28.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -27.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.7 |
| P/S | 5.3 |
| P/EBIT | 1,127.2 |
| P/E | -22.6 |
| P/CFO | -22.1 |
| Total Yield | -4.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -16.0% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 15.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 75.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 117.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 36.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | -42.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 21.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 56.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 103.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 17.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -119.6% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11142025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8152025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5152025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3312025 | 40-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11152024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8162024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5162024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 5012024 | 40-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11152023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 9012023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 8112023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 6132023 | 40-F 12/31/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8172022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5162022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 4042022 | 40-F 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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