Tearsheet

Sigma Lithium (SGML)


Market Price (12/15/2025): $11.18 | Market Cap: $1.2 Bil
Sector: Materials | Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining

Sigma Lithium (SGML)


Market Price (12/15/2025): $11.18
Market Cap: $1.2 Bil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -29%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -111%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -143%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -12 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8.9%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, Renewable Energy Transition, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Advanced Battery Components, Show more.
  Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 118%
2   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.2%
3   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -29%
0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -29%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, Renewable Energy Transition, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Advanced Battery Components, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -111%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -143%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -12 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8.9%
4 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 118%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.2%
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -29%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SGML Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the 62.9% stock movement for Sigma Lithium (SGML) from approximately August 31, 2025, to today:

**1. Recovery in Lithium Prices and Bullish Market Forecasts:** The stock experienced a significant uplift due to a notable recovery in lithium prices and optimistic projections for future demand. Notably, in November, the chairman of Ganfeng Lithium Group, the world's second-largest lithium processor, made bullish comments predicting a 30% to 40% surge in lithium demand in 2026, which significantly boosted market sentiment and drove lithium prices to 18-month highs in anticipation of global demand recovery.

**2. Strong Q3 2025 Revenue Performance Driven by Higher Realized Prices:** Despite some analyst expectations not being met for total revenue, Sigma Lithium reported a substantial 69% increase in revenue for its third quarter. This growth was primarily attributed to 61% higher average realized lithium prices, which positively impacted investor confidence, even with a 15% decline in sales volumes.

**3. Operational Enhancements and Cost Reduction Initiatives:** Sigma Lithium consistently delivered on its production targets, as demonstrated by its Q2 2025 results. Furthermore, the company announced strategic upgrades to its mining operations during Q3 2025, aiming to reduce plant gate costs by approximately 20% and enhance overall efficiency.

**4. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Upgraded Price Targets:** Contributing to the stock's upward trend were positive revisions from various analysts. In early December, a Bank of America analyst notably raised Sigma Lithium's price target from $7 to $11, citing strengthening lithium prices and increased EBITDA estimates.

**5. Strategic Expansion Plans and Debt Reduction:** The company's future growth strategy, including plans for a second Greentech plant slated for 2026 to potentially double production capacity, along with aggressive cost-cutting measures such as a 48% reduction in short-term debt through November 2025, further bolstered investor confidence in its long-term prospects.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SGML Return-7%760%171%12%-64%4%800%
Peers Return93%477%-28%558514%-50%85%4133038%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SGML Win Rate8%33%67%67%42%50% 
Peers Win Rate50%33%27%44%38%54% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SGML Max Drawdown-7%0%-16%-23%-72%-62% 
Peers Max Drawdown-39%-2%-33%-39%-61%-32% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ALB, LAC, SLI, ATLX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSGMLS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-48.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven94.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-21.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven27.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven539 days148 days

Compare to WRN, XPL, CRML, NEXM, TECK


In The Past

Sigma Lithium's stock fell -48.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/17/2023. A -48.7% loss requires a 94.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Sigma Lithium (SGML)

Better Bets than Sigma Lithium (SGML)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SGML. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.7%6.7%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.8%0.8%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
40.6%40.6%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
17.4%17.4%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.7%4.7%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.7%6.7%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.8%0.8%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
40.6%40.6%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
17.4%17.4%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.7%4.7%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Sigma Lithium

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SGMLALBLACSLIATLXMedian
NameSigma Li.AlbemarleLithium .Standard.Atlas Li. 
Mkt Price10.93132.745.124.624.255.12
Mkt Cap0.715.61.20.70.10.7
Rev LTM1354,9460000
Op Inc LTM-1219-34-20-35-20
FCF LTM-38121-647-20-32-32
FCF 3Y Avg-50-281-335-43-29-50
CFO LTM-20904-55-18-20-20
CFO 3Y Avg-141,291-38-18-14-14

Growth & Margins

SGMLALBLACSLIATLXMedian
NameSigma Li.AlbemarleLithium .Standard.Atlas Li. 
Rev Chg LTM-7.2%-23.9%---66.5%-23.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-6.2%--2,873.7%1,440.0%
Rev Chg Q36.6%-3.5%---100.0%-3.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM6.0%-0.9%---48.4%-0.9%
Op Mgn LTM-8.9%0.4%---19,289.1%-8.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-32.3%-1.3%----16.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM5.7%5.0%---8,694.7%5.0%
CFO/Rev LTM-15.0%18.3%---11,048.6%-15.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-15.6%17.1%---0.8%
FCF/Rev LTM-28.6%2.4%---17,515.5%-28.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-50.5%-4.9%----27.7%

Valuation

SGMLALBLACSLIATLXMedian
NameSigma Li.AlbemarleLithium .Standard.Atlas Li. 
Mkt Cap0.715.61.20.70.10.7
P/S5.31.9--531.65.3
P/EBIT-2,260.0-5.6--1,127.2
P/E-22.6-451.0-5.1-39.3-2.9-22.6
P/CFO-35.310.6-22.1-39.2-4.8-22.1
Total Yield-4.4%1.8%-19.8%-2.5%-34.0%-4.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--3.1%-28.9%---16.0%
D/E-0.40.3--0.3
Net D/E-0.20.0--0.1

Returns

SGMLALBLACSLIATLXMedian
NameSigma Li.AlbemarleLithium .Standard.Atlas Li. 
1M Rtn80.4%15.6%14.8%41.7%-2.7%15.6%
3M Rtn102.0%75.2%79.0%59.3%-7.2%75.2%
6M Rtn117.7%120.5%93.2%164.0%5.5%117.7%
12M Rtn-8.5%36.3%57.5%212.2%-44.2%36.3%
3Y Rtn-64.2%-42.3%-77.6%28.7%303,471.4%-42.3%
1M Excs Rtn87.5%21.0%5.5%37.4%-4.2%21.0%
3M Excs Rtn84.9%61.1%56.8%47.3%-14.3%56.8%
6M Excs Rtn103.5%106.2%79.0%149.8%-8.8%103.5%
12M Excs Rtn-25.1%17.7%29.9%166.9%-55.7%17.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-142.5%-119.6%-152.1%-55.1%303,397.9%-119.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment137    
Total137    


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
High grade lithium concentrate 2281522616
Total 2281522616


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity9,039,408
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-17.4%
Average Daily Volume15,378,996
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1
Basic Shares Quantity111,307,968
Short % of Basic Shares8.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
9302025111420256-K 9/30/2025
630202581520256-K 6/30/2025
331202551520256-K 3/31/2025
12312024331202540-F 12/31/2024
9302024111520246-K 9/30/2024
630202481620246-K 6/30/2024
331202451620246-K 3/31/2024
12312023501202440-F 12/31/2023
9302023111520236-K 9/30/2023
630202390120236-K 6/30/2023
331202381120236-K 3/31/2023
12312022613202340-F 12/31/2022
630202281720226-K 6/30/2022
331202251620226-K 3/31/2022
12312021404202240-F 12/31/2021