Commercial Metals (CMC)
Market Price (7/9/2026): $62.08 | Market Cap: $6.9 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Steel
Commercial Metals (CMC)
Market Price (7/9/2026): $62.08Market Cap: $6.9 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Steel
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.2%, FCF Yield is 5.7% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -16%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -45% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.6% Key risksCMC key risks include [1] material impacts from adverse legal outcomes, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.2%, FCF Yield is 5.7% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -16%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -45% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.6% |
| Key risksCMC key risks include [1] material impacts from adverse legal outcomes, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Commercial Metals (CMC) stock has remained largely at the same level since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Performance.
Commercial Metals (CMC) reported mixed results for its fiscal Q2 2026 (ended February 28, 2026), which were released on March 26, 2026. The company posted adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.16, missing analyst estimates of $1.34 by $0.18. However, revenue reached $2.132 billion, surpassing estimates of $2.111 billion and marking a 21.5% increase year-over-year. This combination of an EPS miss despite strong revenue growth and a significant 114% year-over-year increase in core EBITDA likely led to a balanced market reaction, contributing to the stock's stable trend.
2. Stable, Yet Mixed, Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings.
The trend of mixed financial results continued into fiscal Q3 2026 (ended May 31, 2026), with earnings reported on June 25, 2026. CMC's adjusted EPS of $1.73 slightly missed consensus estimates of $1.77. Conversely, revenue of $2.483 billion exceeded expectations, beating estimates by approximately $48.43 million. Despite consolidated core EBITDA increasing by 78.6% to $353.6 million and margins expanding to 14.2%, concerns about margin quality and cost control were also noted, leading to a generally neutral market response that maintained the stock's stable movement.
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Commercial Metals (CMC) stock has remained largely at the same level since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Performance.
Commercial Metals (CMC) reported mixed results for its fiscal Q2 2026 (ended February 28, 2026), which were released on March 26, 2026. The company posted adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.16, missing analyst estimates of $1.34 by $0.18. However, revenue reached $2.132 billion, surpassing estimates of $2.111 billion and marking a 21.5% increase year-over-year. This combination of an EPS miss despite strong revenue growth and a significant 114% year-over-year increase in core EBITDA likely led to a balanced market reaction, contributing to the stock's stable trend.
2. Stable, Yet Mixed, Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings.
The trend of mixed financial results continued into fiscal Q3 2026 (ended May 31, 2026), with earnings reported on June 25, 2026. CMC's adjusted EPS of $1.73 slightly missed consensus estimates of $1.77. Conversely, revenue of $2.483 billion exceeded expectations, beating estimates by approximately $48.43 million. Despite consolidated core EBITDA increasing by 78.6% to $353.6 million and margins expanding to 14.2%, concerns about margin quality and cost control were also noted, leading to a generally neutral market response that maintained the stock's stable movement.
3. Positive Macroeconomic Environment and Strong Rebar Market Outlook.
The broader steel and rebar market in North America, a key segment for Commercial Metals, demonstrated an accelerating recovery during fiscal Q2 2026. Global steel demand was projected to grow by 2-3% year-on-year in 2026, with North America anticipated to be the fastest-growing region in the steel rebar market, contributing a 24.5% share due to infrastructure modernization programs and residential housing completions. This favorable industry backdrop, characterized by firming rebar prices and increasing market sentiment, provided fundamental support to CMC's stock, preventing a significant downturn.
4. Balanced Analyst Sentiment with Modest Upside.
Analyst ratings for CMC during the specified period generally reflected a positive, but not overwhelmingly bullish, outlook. The consensus price target as of late June 2026 was $72.13, with a median target of $82.00, suggesting some potential upside from its trading levels. While there were some upgrades, such as UBS raising its price target to $89.00 on May 14, 2026, there were also initiations at "Equal-Weight" and some downgrades, like Wells Fargo's adjustment to "Equal-Weight" on June 4, 2026. This mixed analyst activity, coupled with a "Moderate Buy" or "Strong Buy" consensus, indicated that while the stock was viewed favorably, there wasn't a strong catalyst for a dramatic price increase, contributing to its largely stable performance.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 1.7% change in CMC stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 1.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 61.03 | 62.08 | 1.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,387 | 8,387 | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.0% | 6.0% | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.4 | 13.6 | 1.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 111 | 111 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1.7% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CMC | 1.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.6% | 49.8% |
| Sector (XLB) | 0.4% | 65.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -9.5% change in CMC stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -84.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 68.61 | 62.08 | -9.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 7,798 | 8,387 | 7.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.1% | 6.0% | 454.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 90.5 | 13.6 | -84.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 112 | 111 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -9.5% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CMC | -9.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.6% | 50.9% |
| Sector (XLB) | 11.1% | 60.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 28.4% change in CMC stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 1156.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 48.34 | 62.08 | 28.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 7,680 | 8,387 | 9.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.5% | 6.0% | 1156.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 148.0 | 13.6 | -90.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 113 | 111 | 1.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 28.4% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CMC | 28.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 21.7% | 51.0% |
| Sector (XLB) | 15.9% | 60.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 22.7% change in CMC stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 121.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 50.61 | 62.08 | 22.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,997 | 8,387 | -6.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.7% | 6.0% | -43.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.1 | 13.6 | 121.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 117 | 111 | 5.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 22.7% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CMC | 22.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.1% | 55.9% |
| Sector (XLB) | 27.8% | 63.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CMC Return | 80% | 35% | 5% | 0% | 42% | -10% | 225% |
| Peers Return | 52% | 26% | 37% | 3% | 44% | 48% | 480% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CMC Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 42% | 58% | 58% | 43% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 52% | 60% | 63% | 63% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 57% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CMC Max Drawdown | -18% | -29% | -31% | -22% | -26% | -30% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -34% | -33% | -29% | -26% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: HCC, NWPX, FRD, NUE, STLD. See CMC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/8/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CMC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 85 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 150 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -24.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 48 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -45.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 133 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 318 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -19.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 48 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Commercial Metals's stock fell -23.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 31.3% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | CMC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 85 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 150 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -24.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 48 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -45.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 133 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 318 days | 105 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -23.6% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.9% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 154 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -41.0% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.6% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 64 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -23.2% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.2% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 149 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -78.8% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 370.6% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2937 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -28.4% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.6% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 286 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Commercial Metals's stock fell -23.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 31.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Commercial Metals (CMC)
Commercial Metals Company (CMC) is a global manufacturer, recycler, and fabricator of steel and metal products. The company’s operations include processing and selling various ferrous and nonferrous scrap metals to a broad industrial customer base, which includes steel mills, foundries, and aluminum and copper refiners. Additionally, CMC manufactures and sells finished long steel products, such as rebar, merchant bar, light structural steel, and semi-finished billets used in re-rolling and forging applications.
CMC also specializes in fabricated steel products, predominantly used to reinforce concrete in a wide array of construction projects, from commercial buildings and hospitals to highways and bridges. They provide construction-related products and equipment, and produce specialized steels like strength bars for the truck trailer industry, special bar steels for the energy sector, and armor plates for military vehicles. Their offerings further extend to wire rods and fabricated rebar products, serving fabricators, manufacturers, distributors, and construction companies across the United States, Poland, China, and other international markets.
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Commercial Metals (CMC) is essentially a full-lifecycle steel company like Nucor, handling everything from scrap metal recycling to manufacturing rebar and fabricating steel for construction and specialty industries.
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- Scrap Metals (Ferrous and Nonferrous): Commercial Metals processes and sells various ferrous and nonferrous scrap metals to steel mills, foundries, and other industrial consumers.
- Finished Long Steel Products: The company manufactures and sells finished long steel products, including rebar, merchant bar, light structural sections, and other special sections.
- Semi-finished Billets: CMC produces semi-finished billets that are used for re-rolling and forging applications.
- Fabricated Steel Products: These products, such as fabricated rebars, wire meshes, and rebar cages, are used primarily to reinforce concrete in various construction projects.
- Construction-Related Products and Equipment: Commercial Metals sells and rents a range of products and equipment specifically for concrete installers and other construction businesses.
- Specialty Bar Steels: The company manufactures and sells specialized steel bars, including strength bars for truck trailers, steels for the energy market, and armor plates for military vehicles.
- Wire Rods: CMC manufactures and sells wire rods, which are used in various industrial and manufacturing applications.
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Commercial Metals (CMC) primarily sells its products and services to other companies (B2B). Based on the company description, its major customer categories include:
- Primary Metal Producers and Processors: This category encompasses steel mills, foundries, aluminum sheet and ingot manufacturers, brass and bronze ingot makers, copper refineries and mills, secondary lead smelters, specialty steel mills, and high temperature alloy manufacturers, which purchase ferrous and nonferrous scrap metals, as well as semi-finished billets.
- Construction and Infrastructure Companies: This includes general contractors, concrete installers, fabricators, and other businesses involved in the construction of commercial and non-commercial buildings, hospitals, convention centers, industrial plants, power plants, highways, bridges, arenas, stadiums, and dams. They purchase fabricated steel products (like rebar), construction-related products, and equipment.
- Industrial and Equipment Manufacturers & Distributors: This broad category covers manufacturers in various sectors such as the truck trailer industry (for strength bars), the energy market (for special bar steels), and military vehicle manufacturers (for armor plates). It also includes other general manufacturers and distributors who purchase long steel products, wire rods, and other fabricated products for further processing or resale.
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Peter Matt
President and Chief Executive Officer
Peter Matt assumed the role of President and Chief Executive Officer of Commercial Metals Company in September 2023, having been appointed President in April 2023. He has been a member of CMC's Board of Directors since June 2020. Prior to joining CMC, Mr. Matt served as the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Constellium SE, a global aluminum fabrication company, from January 2017 to April 2023. Before Constellium, he was a Managing Partner for Tumpline Capital, LLC from 2015 to 2016. His career also includes 30 years in investment banking with Credit Suisse, where he held various leadership positions from 1985 to 2015. He currently serves on the board of the FX Matt Brewing Company.
Paul Lawrence
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Paul Lawrence has served as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Commercial Metals Company since November 2021. He joined CMC in February 2016 as Vice President of Finance and has held several other finance leadership positions within the company, including Treasurer and Vice President of Financial Planning and Analysis. Before his tenure at CMC, Mr. Lawrence worked with Gerdau from 2003 to 2016, where his roles included North American Information Technology Leader, Assistant Vice President and Corporate Controller, and Deputy Corporate Controller. From 1998 to 2002, he held various financial positions at Co-Steel Inc.
Jody Absher
Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary
Jody Absher is the Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary for Commercial Metals Company. She joined CMC's legal department in May 2011 and has previously served as General Counsel and Corporate Secretary. Before joining CMC, Ms. Absher was an associate at Haynes and Boone, LLP.
Kekin Ghelani
Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy Officer
Kekin Ghelani is the Senior Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer at Commercial Metals Company, a role he assumed in September 2024. In this position, he is responsible for guiding CMC's strategic direction, driving long-term growth, and managing mergers and acquisitions efforts, including integration. Prior to CMC, Mr. Ghelani held various management and leadership roles at Summit Materials, DuPont, Celanese, and Honeywell.
Ty Garrison
Senior Vice President, Operational & Commercial Excellence
Ty Garrison serves as the Senior Vice President, Operational & Commercial Excellence at Commercial Metals Company. In this role, he works closely with CMC's North America Steel Group and the Emerging Businesses Group leadership. Before his current position, Mr. Garrison was CMC's Senior Vice President of Operations, overseeing operations and commercial teams in the U.S. and Poland, along with supply chain, engineering, and operational excellence. He joined CMC in 2000 and has held numerous roles in sales and operations, including Vice President of the West Region and Vice President of the East Region, before being appointed Senior Vice President of Strategy and Operations in 2021.
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Here are the key risks to Commercial Metals Company (CMC):
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Cyclicality of the Steel Industry and Macroeconomic Conditions: Commercial Metals' business is highly sensitive to the cyclical nature of industries it serves, such as commercial, government, and residential construction, as well as energy and manufacturing. Significant fluctuations in demand for its steel and metal products can occur due to global or regional economic downturns, leading to substantial impacts on sales and profitability.
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Raw Material and Input Price Volatility: The company's profitability is directly affected by volatile fluctuations in the prices of key raw materials, primarily steel scrap, and energy costs, including electricity and natural gas, over which it has little influence.
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Litigation and Regulatory Risks: Commercial Metals Company faces the risk of material impacts from adverse legal outcomes. For instance, the company recorded a significant litigation expense of $362.3 million in fiscal year 2025 due to a specific lawsuit. Additionally, compliance with stringent environmental, safety, and other regulations can lead to increased operational costs and complexity.
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Commercial Metals Company (CMC) operates in several key addressable markets related to steel and metal products. Below are the estimated market sizes for their main products and services:
Metal Recycling (Ferrous and Nonferrous Scrap Metals)
- Global: The global metal recycling market was valued at USD 253.3 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 356.0 billion by 2033. Another estimate places the global metal recycling market size at USD 850.04 billion in 2023, with a projection to reach USD 1,135.28 billion by 2030. A further valuation indicates the global recycled steel market alone was USD 280.63 billion in 2024, expected to grow to USD 401.21 billion by 2030.
- United States: The U.S. recycled metal market is valued at approximately USD 90.76 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 121.04 billion by 2034. The U.S. market for scrap metal recycling is estimated at USD 57.8 billion in 2026. Approximately 80 to 60 million tons of steel scrap are recycled in North America annually. North America, overall, holds about 45% of the global recycled steel market share.
- China: China's metal recycling market generated a revenue of USD 265,323.5 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 355,686.4 million by 2030. China's recycled steel consumption was 209.67 million tonnes in 2024.
- Poland: The steel industry in Poland produces 6.5 million tons of scrap annually. Poland exports approximately 1.5-2 million tons of scrap metal annually.
Long Steel Products (including Rebar, Merchant Bar, Light Structural, and Semi-finished Billets)
- Global: The global long steel products market size was valued at USD 705.53 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow to USD 1,012.11 billion by 2030. Another source estimated the global long steel market size at USD 675.54 billion in 2025, with a projection to reach USD 917.44 billion by 2033. The global long steel products market size was valued at USD 744.44 billion in 2024 and is poised to grow to USD 1195.08 billion by 2033.
- United States: The long steel products market in the United States is expected to reach a projected revenue of US$ 68,960.3 million by 2030.
- Poland: Consumption of long products in Poland amounted to 4.5 million tons in 2024.
Steel Rebar (a key finished long steel product and fabricated steel product)
- Global: The global steel rebar market was valued at USD 216.5 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 260.66 billion by 2032. Another valuation puts the global steel rebar market size at USD 242.94 billion in 2024, with an expected increase to USD 457.27 billion by 2033.
- United States: The U.S. steel rebar market size was estimated at USD 6.50 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 8.32 billion by 2030. A different report values the U.S. steel rebar market size at USD 67.5 billion in 2025, expected to reach USD 110.1 billion by 2034.
Fabricated Steel Products (including structural steel fabrication and prefabricated steel)
- Global Fabricated Metal: The global metal fabrication market size is projected to be USD 24,860 million in 2025 and is expected to enlarge to USD 37,293 million by 2033.
- Global Structural Steel Fabrication: The global structural steel fabrication market reached a value of nearly USD 153.85 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow to USD 362.7 billion in 2033.
- United States Fabricated Structural Metal Manufacturing: The market size of Fabricated Structural Metal Manufacturing in the U.S. was USD 65.4 billion in 2024 and USD 65.5 billion in 2025.
- United States Prefabricated Steel: The U.S. prefabricated steel market size is likely to be valued at US$ 19.1 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach US$ 28.7 billion in 2032.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Commercial Metals (CMC)
Commercial Metals Company (CMC) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several strategic initiatives and favorable market conditions:
- Strategic Acquisitions and Precast Concrete Market Expansion: CMC's significant inorganic growth is highlighted by its recent acquisitions of Concrete Pipe & Precast (CP&P) and Foley Products Company. These acquisitions are expected to create a substantial precast platform, positioning CMC as a leading player in the United States and particularly strong in the Southeast. The combined entities are projected to add approximately $735 million in revenue and $250 million in EBITDA annually, with synergies of $25-$30 million anticipated by year three. This strategic move materially enhances CMC's portfolio exposure to higher-margin, value-added construction solutions.
- Transform, Advance, Grow (TAG) Program: The company's enterprise-wide Transform, Advance, Grow (TAG) program is a key driver focusing on operational and commercial excellence. This program, launched in September 2024, aims to deliver sustainably higher margins, increased earnings, and cash flow, and accelerate top-line growth. The TAG program delivered an estimated $50 million of EBITDA benefit in fiscal year 2025 and is expected to generate an annualized EBITDA benefit of over $150 million by the end of fiscal 2026. These efficiency gains and improved margin capture contribute indirectly to revenue growth by enhancing competitiveness and overall financial health.
- Organic Growth Projects and Capacity Expansions: CMC is investing in attractive organic growth projects, including the completion of its Arizona 2 micro mill and the construction of the Steel West Virginia facility, slated for commissioning in late calendar year 2025. These new facilities and capacity expansions for products like GalvaBar and Tensar geogrid are expected to boost production volumes, broaden product distribution, and improve the company's competitive position, thereby contributing meaningfully to revenue growth and profitability.
- Favorable North American Construction Market and Infrastructure Spending: The company anticipates continued strong demand from the North American construction market, supported by structural trends and pro-growth policies. Over $2 trillion of corporate investment programs were announced in calendar year 2025, particularly in U.S. infrastructure, reshoring industrial capacity, energy generation and transmission, AI infrastructure, and addressing housing shortages. This robust demand environment for construction activity, including highway and bridge projects, is expected to drive increased sales volumes and improved pricing leverage for CMC's steel and precast concrete products.
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Share Repurchases
- Commercial Metals initiated a share repurchase program in October 2021.
- Since October 2021, the company has repurchased approximately 14,882,085 shares for a cumulative value of $683.91 million.
- In October 2024, Commercial Metals expanded its share repurchase program by an additional $500 million, increasing the total authorized capacity to $850 million.
Outbound Investments
- Commercial Metals acquired Concrete Pipe & Precast (CP&P) for $675 million and Foley Products Company for approximately $1.84 billion, with both transactions closing by December 2025.
- These acquisitions established a new precast concrete platform, making CMC the third-largest precast supplier in the United States and a leader in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern regions.
- For the fiscal year ended August 31, 2023, the company's acquisitions, net of cash acquired, amounted to $234.7 million.
Capital Expenditures
- Commercial Metals' capital expenditures for fiscal years 2021 to 2025 averaged $393.6 million annually.
- Capital expenditures reached a five-year peak of $606.7 million in fiscal year 2023.
- The company is directing investments towards growth projects such as the Arizona 2 and Steel West Virginia micro mills, and capacity expansions for GalvaBar and Tensar geogrid, which are anticipated to generate approximately $150 million in incremental EBITDA.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 105.06 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.5 |
| Rev LTM | 4,928 |
| Op Inc LTM | 423 |
| FCF LTM | 233 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 266 |
| CFO LTM | 523 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 644 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -3.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 21.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 49.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -12.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.5 |
| P/S | 1.6 |
| P/Op Inc | 16.3 |
| P/EBIT | 16.5 |
| P/E | 23.2 |
| P/CFO | 16.8 |
| Total Yield | 5.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -12.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 23.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 37.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 67.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 113.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -14.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 17.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 26.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 50.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 43.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America Steel Group | 6,151 | 6,310 | |||
| Europe Steel Group | 921 | 849 | |||
| Construction Solutions Group | 806 | 717 | |||
| Corporate and Other | 49 | 50 | |||
| Eliminations | -128 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Construction-related solutions | 667 | 481 | 290 | ||
| Downstream products | 2,718 | 2,538 | 2,006 | ||
| Other | 217 | 175 | 152 | ||
| Raw materials | 1,343 | 1,529 | 1,183 | ||
| Steel products | 3,854 | 4,191 | 3,099 | ||
| Total | 7,798 | 7,926 | 8,800 | 8,913 | 6,730 |
| $ Mil | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domestic Mills | 208 | 275 | 301 | 217 | 84 |
| Recycling | 146 | 90 | 100 | 71 | 68 |
| International Fabrication and Distribution, | 124 | ||||
| International Mills | 97 | ||||
| Domestic Fabrication | -67 | 89 | 96 | 118 | |
| CMCZ | 112 | 53 | -0 | 69 | |
| Marketing & Distribution | 85 | 70 | 90 | ||
| Corp | -26 | ||||
| Fabrication | 7 | ||||
| Marketing & Trading | 39 | ||||
| Total | 507 | 651 | 620 | 496 | 242 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America Steel Group | 4,306 | 4,220 | 4,167 | ||
| Corporate and Other | 1,232 | 1,060 | 671 | ||
| Construction Solutions Group | 883 | 861 | 874 | ||
| Europe Steel Group | 750 | 678 | 927 | ||
| Americas Fabrication | 688 | 692 | |||
| Americas Mills | 672 | 647 | |||
| Americas Recycling | 252 | 297 | |||
| Corporate | 1,076 | 1,101 | |||
| Eliminations | -521 | -464 | |||
| Internantional Marketing & Distribution | 802 | 949 | |||
| International Mills | 404 | ||||
| Internantional mills | 466 | ||||
| Total | 7,172 | 6,818 | 6,639 | 3,372 | 3,689 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $62.08 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 6.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/05/1987 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -24.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $70.93 | $67.26 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -12.5% | -7.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 39.6% | 36.0% |
| Downside Capture | 200.38 | 152.48 |
| Upside Capture | 109.77 | 140.61 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 49.7% | 51.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.75 | 1.27 | 1.37 | 1.39 | 1.46 | 1.26 |
| Up Beta | -0.93 | 0.05 | 1.05 | 1.06 | 1.26 | 1.31 |
| Down Beta | 1.98 | 1.79 | 1.68 | 1.68 | 1.76 | 1.21 |
| Up Capture | -34% | 89% | 107% | 120% | 168% | 159% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 18 | 30 | 59 | 122 | 363 |
| Down Capture | 163% | 183% | 185% | 151% | 128% | 107% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 23 | 33 | 65 | 129 | 387 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CMC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMC | 23.2% | 36.0% | 0.64 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 12.5% | 17.6% | 0.51 | 59.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.2% | 12.5% | 1.26 | 51.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.9% | 27.8% | 0.70 | 17.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 25.0% | 18.7% | 1.06 | -15.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.7% | 13.9% | 0.62 | 28.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -41.4% | 42.8% | -1.13 | 22.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CMC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMC | 16.9% | 35.8% | 0.51 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 6.1% | 19.1% | 0.22 | 66.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 17.1% | 0.60 | 56.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.8% | 18.3% | 0.79 | 11.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 19.5% | 0.30 | 15.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.8% | 18.9% | 0.05 | 41.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.1% | 53.5% | 0.41 | 26.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CMC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMC | 17.0% | 39.8% | 0.52 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.6% | 20.6% | 0.46 | 65.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.9% | 17.9% | 0.76 | 57.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.5% | 16.1% | 0.58 | 6.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.4% | 18.0% | 0.28 | 25.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 42.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.0% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 19.4% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 7/7/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 6/25/2026 | 3.9% | -14.1% | |
| 3/26/2026 | -4.7% | 0.7% | 11.2% |
| 1/8/2026 | -3.6% | 1.4% | 13.6% |
| 10/16/2025 | -7.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 6/23/2025 | 1.2% | 2.8% | 11.8% |
| 3/20/2025 | 1.1% | 4.2% | -9.3% |
| 1/6/2025 | 3.1% | -0.9% | -0.1% |
| 10/17/2024 | 5.1% | -4.5% | 11.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 13 | 15 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 3.8% | 4.2% | 11.1% |
| Median Negative | -4.0% | -4.5% | -5.0% |
| Max Positive | 8.8% | 10.8% | 21.3% |
| Max Negative | -9.6% | -14.6% | -11.6% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 6/25/2026 | 3.9% | -14.1% | |
| 3/26/2026 | -4.7% | 0.7% | 11.2% |
| 1/8/2026 | -3.6% | 1.4% | 13.6% |
| 10/16/2025 | -7.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 6/23/2025 | 1.2% | 2.8% | 11.8% |
| 3/20/2025 | 1.1% | 4.2% | -9.3% |
| 1/6/2025 | 3.1% | -0.9% | -0.1% |
| 10/17/2024 | 5.1% | -4.5% | 11.1% |
| 6/20/2024 | 3.8% | 6.0% | 13.9% |
| 3/21/2024 | 5.3% | 4.1% | -1.1% |
| 1/8/2024 | 7.5% | 3.9% | 6.0% |
| 10/12/2023 | -9.6% | -14.6% | -6.4% |
| 6/22/2023 | 8.8% | 9.4% | 15.7% |
| 3/23/2023 | 3.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% |
| 1/9/2023 | -0.6% | 10.8% | 13.0% |
| 10/13/2022 | 6.1% | 7.3% | 21.3% |
| 6/16/2022 | -4.9% | -7.7% | -6.9% |
| 3/17/2022 | -1.9% | -1.0% | 8.4% |
| 1/10/2022 | 0.6% | 6.5% | 0.1% |
| 10/14/2021 | -4.7% | -0.1% | 7.2% |
| 6/17/2021 | -3.8% | -2.5% | -3.6% |
| 3/18/2021 | 1.7% | -1.1% | 3.9% |
| 1/11/2021 | -4.0% | -5.6% | -2.6% |
| 10/15/2020 | -2.7% | -9.2% | -11.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 13 | 15 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 3.8% | 4.2% | 11.1% |
| Median Negative | -4.0% | -4.5% | -5.0% |
| Max Positive | 8.8% | 10.8% | 21.3% |
| Max Negative | -9.6% | -14.6% | -11.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 02/28/2026 | 03/31/2026 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2025 | 01/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2025 | 10/16/2025 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2025 | 06/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2025 | 03/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2024 | 01/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2024 | 10/17/2024 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2024 | 06/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 02/29/2024 | 03/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2023 | 01/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2023 | 10/12/2023 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2023 | 06/22/2023 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2023 | 03/23/2023 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2022 | 01/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2022 | 10/13/2022 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2022 | 06/22/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 02/28/2026 | 03/31/2026 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2025 | 01/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2025 | 10/16/2025 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2025 | 06/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2025 | 03/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2024 | 01/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2024 | 10/17/2024 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2024 | 06/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 02/29/2024 | 03/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2023 | 01/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2023 | 10/12/2023 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2023 | 06/22/2023 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2023 | 03/23/2023 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2022 | 01/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2022 | 10/13/2022 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2022 | 06/22/2022 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2022 | 03/23/2022 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2021 | 01/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2021 | 10/14/2021 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2021 | 06/24/2021 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2021 | 03/24/2021 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2020 | 01/11/2021 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2020 | 10/15/2020 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2020 | 06/25/2020 | 10-Q |
| 02/29/2020 | 03/25/2020 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2019 | 01/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2019 | 10/23/2019 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2019 | 06/27/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 6/26/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 6/25/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Core EBITDA | |||||||
| Q4 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Growth | 15.0% | ||||||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 1/8/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 EBITDA Contribution from Precast Businesses | 165.00 Mil | 170.00 Mil | 175.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 TAG Program Annualized Run-rate EBITDA Benefit | 150.00 Mil | ||||||
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 1/8/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 EBITDA Contribution from Precast Businesses | 165.00 Mil | 170.00 Mil | 175.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 TAG Program Annualized Run-rate EBITDA Benefit | 150.00 Mil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 7/2/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Durbin, Jennifer J | Fmr. Chief HR & Comm. Officer | Direct | Sell | 2042026 | 79.97 | 25,050 | 2,003,248 | 4,228,814 | Form |
| 2 | Arriola, Dennis V | Direct | Buy | 1222026 | 74.69 | 2,000 | 149,380 | 689,986 | Form | |
| 3 | Halloran, Brian N | SVP, N. America Steel Group | Direct | Sell | 11042025 | 59.87 | 6,232 | 373,110 | 3,475,753 | Form |
| 4 | McPherson, John R | Limited Partnership | Buy | 10212025 | 58.09 | 1,722 | 100,037 | 390,504 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Durbin, Jennifer J | Fmr. Chief HR & Comm. Officer | Direct | Sell | 2042026 | 79.97 | 25,050 | 2,003,248 | 4,228,814 | Form |
| 2 | Arriola, Dennis V | Direct | Buy | 1222026 | 74.69 | 2,000 | 149,380 | 689,986 | Form | |
| 3 | Halloran, Brian N | SVP, N. America Steel Group | Direct | Sell | 11042025 | 59.87 | 6,232 | 373,110 | 3,475,753 | Form |
| 4 | McPherson, John R | Limited Partnership | Buy | 10212025 | 58.09 | 1,722 | 100,037 | 390,504 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Materials Resources |
| Chemical & Engineering News (C&EN) |
| Mining.com |
| Plastics News |
| Steel Resources |
| SteelOrbis |
| World Steel Association |
| Kallanish Commodities |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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