Commercial Metals (CMC)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $65.23 | Market Cap: $7.3 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Steel
Commercial Metals (CMC)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $65.23Market Cap: $7.3 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Steel
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.0%, Dist 3Y High is -1.0% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 42x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 76x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -2.3%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -33% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.3% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.0%, Dist 3Y High is -1.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -2.3%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -33% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 42x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 76x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.3% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CMC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points highlighting the reasons for Commercial Metals (CMC) stock movement by 13.4% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:
1. Strong Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Outperformance: Commercial Metals reported robust financial results for its fiscal fourth quarter ended August 31, 2025, announced on October 16, 2025. The company's adjusted earnings per diluted share of $1.37 surpassed analyst consensus estimates, and its reported revenue of $2.11 billion also exceeded expectations. This positive earnings beat, coupled with expanding North American steel product metal margins and the Emerging Businesses Group achieving its best-ever quarterly results, likely contributed to investor confidence.
2. Strategic Expansion through Acquisitions: CMC made significant moves to expand its business through acquisitions during this period. The company successfully completed the acquisition of Concrete Pipe & Precast, LLC (CP&P) for $675 million on December 1, 2025. This acquisition, along with the anticipated closing of the Foley Products Company acquisition by the end of calendar year 2025, is expected to establish CMC as a major player in the precast concrete platform across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern United States, broadening its commercial portfolio and creating additional value.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CMC Return | -5% | 80% | 35% | 5% | 0% | 33% | 223% |
| Peers Return | -6% | 62% | 34% | 39% | 21% | 44% | 392% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CMC Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 58% | 50% | 53% | 58% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CMC Max Drawdown | -48% | -4% | -9% | -16% | -4% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -52% | -5% | -13% | -5% | -13% | -10% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NUE, STLD, CRS, RS, CMC. See CMC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CMC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 150 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -50.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 101.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 208 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -48.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 635 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -83.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 522.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4851 days | 1480 days |
Compare to NUE, STLD, CRS, RS, CMC
In The Past
Commercial Metals's stock fell -30.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/1/2023. A -30.8% loss requires a 44.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CMC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 29.7% | 29.7% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.9% | 9.9% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.2% | 5.2% | -2.5% |
| 03312020 | CMC | Commercial Metals | Dip Buy | DB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) | 28.6% | 101.1% | -8.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 29.7% | 29.7% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.9% | 9.9% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.2% | 5.2% | -2.5% |
| 03312020 | CMC | Commercial Metals | Dip Buy | DB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) | 28.6% | 101.1% | -8.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Commercial Metals
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 168.11 |
| Mkt Cap | 15.8 |
| Rev LTM | 13,922 |
| Op Inc LTM | 982 |
| FCF LTM | 311 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,018 |
| CFO LTM | 1,029 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,488 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -7.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 15.8 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | 13.8 |
| P/E | 23.1 |
| P/CFO | 13.4 |
| Total Yield | 6.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 12.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 28.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 44.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 9.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 12.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -7.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -29.0% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 8312025 | 10162025 | 10-K 8/31/2025 |
| 5312025 | 6242025 | 10-Q 5/31/2025 |
| 2282025 | 3252025 | 10-Q 2/28/2025 |
| 11302024 | 1062025 | 10-Q 11/30/2024 |
| 8312024 | 10172024 | 10-K 8/31/2024 |
| 5312024 | 6252024 | 10-Q 5/31/2024 |
| 2292024 | 3262024 | 10-Q 2/29/2024 |
| 11302023 | 1082024 | 10-Q 11/30/2023 |
| 8312023 | 10122023 | 10-K 8/31/2023 |
| 5312023 | 6222023 | 10-Q 5/31/2023 |
| 2282023 | 3232023 | 10-Q 2/28/2023 |
| 11302022 | 1092023 | 10-Q 11/30/2022 |
| 8312022 | 10132022 | 10-K 8/31/2022 |
| 5312022 | 6222022 | 10-Q 5/31/2022 |
| 2282022 | 3232022 | 10-Q 2/28/2022 |
| 11302021 | 1102022 | 10-Q 11/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |