Friedman Industries (FRD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $19.58 | Market Cap: $136.4 MilSector: Materials | Industry: Steel
Friedman Industries (FRD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $19.58Market Cap: $136.4 MilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Steel
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.4%, FCF Yield is 9.9% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.8% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, Renewable Energy Transition, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.4%, FCF Yield is 9.9% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, Renewable Energy Transition, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, Show more. |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.8% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
FRD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, Friedman Industries (FRD) experienced a stock movement, including a fall of approximately 2.29% in a week, and a decline of 8.98% over a month. Here are key points explaining these movements:
1. Stock Declined Despite Strong Q2 Earnings: Friedman Industries' stock experienced a decline around November 12, 2025, even after the company announced strong second-quarter results for the period ending September 30, 2025. These results included increased net earnings and record sales volume year-over-year, suggesting that market expectations might have been exceptionally high or that a "sell the news" event occurred.
2. Full Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Decline: While the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 showed strong performance, the overall net earnings for fiscal year 2025 were reported at $6.1 million, a notable decrease from $17.3 million in fiscal year 2024. This year-over-year decline in full fiscal year profitability could have tempered investor optimism despite strong quarterly results.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FRD Return | 16% | 38% | 5% | 59% | -0% | 24% | 230% |
| Peers Return | 23% | 44% | -19% | 32% | 9% | 53% | 217% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FRD Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 67% | 50% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 48% | 42% | 53% | 52% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FRD Max Drawdown | -37% | -2% | -24% | -2% | -12% | -10% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -56% | -16% | -40% | -19% | -26% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CDE, CENX, IIIN, NX, NUE. See FRD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FRD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -53.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 116.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 382 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 158 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -48.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 93.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 659 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -68.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 215.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 871 days | 1480 days |
Compare to CDE, CENX, IIIN, NX, NUE
In The Past
Friedman Industries's stock fell -53.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/24/2021. A -53.9% loss requires a 116.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to FRD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Friedman Industries
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 25.27 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| Rev LTM | 1,770 |
| Op Inc LTM | 126 |
| FCF LTM | 15 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 41 |
| CFO LTM | 61 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 98 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 21.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 24.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 4.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/EBIT | 13.8 |
| P/E | 20.6 |
| P/CFO | 15.6 |
| Total Yield | 4.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.2% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 26.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 17.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 77.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 11.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 6.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 5.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flat-roll | 473 | 486 | 230 | 95 | 100 |
| Tubular | 43 | 62 | 55 | 31 | 42 |
| Other | 0 | ||||
| Total | 516 | 548 | 285 | 126 | 142 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flat-roll | 33 | 23 | 32 | 16 | 1 |
| Tubular | 3 | 9 | 2 | 3 | -6 |
| Other | -12 | ||||
| General corporate expenses | -11 | -6 | -4 | -3 | |
| Interest expense | -0 | -0 | |||
| Total | 25 | 21 | 29 | 16 | -7 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flat-roll | 206 | 180 | 115 | 57 | 36 |
| Tubular | 20 | 16 | 24 | 18 | 24 |
| General corporate assets | 5 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 18 |
| Total | 230 | 199 | 159 | 95 | 77 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 6122025 | 10-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2072025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 6112024 | 10-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2142024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8142023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 7142023 | 10-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2092023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 12022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 10122022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 8022022 | 10-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2142022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11192021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |