Commerce Bancshares (CBSH)
Market Price (6/27/2026): $57.76 | Market Cap: $8.4 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
Commerce Bancshares (CBSH)
Market Price (6/27/2026): $57.76Market Cap: $8.4 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.4%, FCF Yield is 14% Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -69% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 62% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 18% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, and Wealth Management Technology. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -18%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -27% Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 10% | Key risksCBSH key risks include [1] significant unrealized losses on its substantial fixed-rate securities portfolio from rising interest rates and [2] increased loan losses during an economic downturn due to its large consumer and credit card lending business. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.4%, FCF Yield is 14% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -69% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 62% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% |
| Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 18% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, and Wealth Management Technology. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -18%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -27% |
| Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 10% |
| Key risksCBSH key risks include [1] significant unrealized losses on its substantial fixed-rate securities portfolio from rising interest rates and [2] increased loan losses during an economic downturn due to its large consumer and credit card lending business. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) stock has gained about 15% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Commerce Bancshares reported stronger-than-expected earnings for its fiscal Q1 2026, which ended on March 31, 2026. The company announced diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.96, surpassing analyst consensus estimates that ranged from $0.90 to $0.94. Net income for the quarter reached $141.6 million, an increase from $131.6 million in fiscal Q1 2025. Total revenue for the quarter was $475.7 million, growing by 10.5% to 11.1% year-over-year and generally aligning with Wall Street expectations. This solid financial performance, particularly the EPS beat, contributed positively to investor sentiment.
2. The strategic acquisition of FineMark Holdings, Inc., completed on January 1, 2026, significantly bolstered Commerce Bancshares' balance sheet and diversified its services. Fiscal Q1 2026 marked the first full quarter incorporating FineMark, which added approximately $3.9 billion in assets, $2.7 billion in loans, and $3.1 billion in deposits. This acquisition was a key driver for an 18% year-over-year loan growth and an 11% year-over-year deposit growth, while also enhancing the company's private banking and wealth management capabilities and expanding its presence in desirable markets.
Show more
Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) stock has gained about 15% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Commerce Bancshares reported stronger-than-expected earnings for its fiscal Q1 2026, which ended on March 31, 2026. The company announced diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.96, surpassing analyst consensus estimates that ranged from $0.90 to $0.94. Net income for the quarter reached $141.6 million, an increase from $131.6 million in fiscal Q1 2025. Total revenue for the quarter was $475.7 million, growing by 10.5% to 11.1% year-over-year and generally aligning with Wall Street expectations. This solid financial performance, particularly the EPS beat, contributed positively to investor sentiment.
2. The strategic acquisition of FineMark Holdings, Inc., completed on January 1, 2026, significantly bolstered Commerce Bancshares' balance sheet and diversified its services. Fiscal Q1 2026 marked the first full quarter incorporating FineMark, which added approximately $3.9 billion in assets, $2.7 billion in loans, and $3.1 billion in deposits. This acquisition was a key driver for an 18% year-over-year loan growth and an 11% year-over-year deposit growth, while also enhancing the company's private banking and wealth management capabilities and expanding its presence in desirable markets.
3. The company demonstrated strong asset quality and continued to return capital to shareholders. In fiscal Q1 2026, Commerce Bancshares maintained excellent credit quality, with non-accrual loans at a low 0.05% of total loans. Profitability metrics remained solid, with a return on average assets (ROAA) of 1.62% and a return on average equity (ROAE) of 13.22%. Furthermore, the company deployed capital effectively by repurchasing over $84 million of common stock during fiscal Q1 2026 and declaring a quarterly dividend of $0.275 per share. Net interest income increased by $16.7 million over the prior quarter to $299.8 million, and non-interest income rose by $16.9 million, or 10.6%, year-over-year, primarily due to a 25.5% increase in trust fees from higher private client fees.
4. Positive macroeconomic sentiment surrounding the regional banking sector contributed to the upward trend. During fiscal Q1 2026, the broader regional banking sector experienced "notably positive" investor sentiment, with regional bank share prices collectively climbing by an average of 12% in the month leading up to April 2026. This optimism was largely driven by a cautious belief that "the worst of the interest rate volatility might be behind us." Regional banks, in general, reported strong fiscal Q1 2026 results, exceeding net income expectations due to year-over-year growth in both net interest and non-interest income. Improving credit quality trends across regional bank portfolios also supported the positive outlook.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 14.5% change in CBSH stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/26/2026 was primarily driven by a 19.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 50.45 | 57.79 | 14.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,768 | 1,835 | 3.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 32.0% | 31.4% | -1.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.3 | 14.6 | 19.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 138 | 146 | -5.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 14.5% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CBSH | 14.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 6.6% | 16.7% |
| Sector (XLF) | 4.7% | 64.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 14.3% change in CBSH stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/26/2026 was primarily driven by a 16.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 50.54 | 57.79 | 14.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,739 | 1,835 | 5.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 32.3% | 31.4% | -2.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.5 | 14.6 | 16.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 139 | 146 | -4.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 14.3% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CBSH | 14.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.3% | 21.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 1.3% | 63.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.3% change in CBSH stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/26/2026 was primarily driven by a -4.3% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 58.55 | 57.79 | -1.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,686 | 1,835 | 8.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 32.3% | 31.4% | -2.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.0 | 14.6 | -2.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 140 | 146 | -4.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.3% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CBSH | -1.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 25.1% | 27.3% |
| Sector (XLF) | 6.7% | 63.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 41.6% change in CBSH stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/26/2026 was primarily driven by a 22.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 40.83 | 57.79 | 41.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,550 | 1,835 | 18.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 31.6% | 31.4% | -0.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.0 | 14.6 | 22.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 144 | 146 | -1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 41.6% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CBSH | 41.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.3% | 46.8% |
| Sector (XLF) | 77.0% | 69.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CBSH Return | 11% | 6% | -16% | 19% | -10% | 11% | 17% |
| Peers Return | 41% | -2% | 1% | 25% | 9% | 16% | 123% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 7% | 96% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CBSH Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 33% | 58% | 42% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 72% | 42% | 47% | 60% | 58% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CBSH Max Drawdown | -18% | -14% | -37% | -16% | -24% | -14% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -27% | -36% | -13% | -26% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: UMBF, BOKF, WTFC, PB, FNB. See CBSH Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/26/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CBSH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 38 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.4% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 33 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -31.0% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 391 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 235 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -19.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 315 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -19.8% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 86 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Commerce Bancshares's stock fell -15.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | CBSH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -31.0% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 391 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 235 days | 140 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -21.2% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.8% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 347 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -36.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.5% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 409 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Commerce Bancshares's stock fell -15.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Commerce Bancshares (CBSH)
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (CBSH) operates as the holding company for Commerce Bank, a diversified financial institution primarily serving individuals and businesses in the central United States. It offers a comprehensive suite of banking and financial services, broadly categorized into three segments: Consumer, Commercial, and Wealth. This structure allows the company to cater to a wide range of financial needs, from everyday banking to complex corporate and investment requirements.
The company's Consumer segment provides essential banking products like deposits, various consumer loans (including automobile, home equity, and real estate loans), and patient healthcare financing, alongside personal mortgage banking and debit/credit cards. Its Commercial segment focuses on corporate lending, leasing, international services, merchant and commercial bank cards, and sophisticated cash management solutions for businesses and government entities.
Beyond traditional banking, CBSH's Wealth segment delivers trust and estate planning, advisory and discretionary investment portfolio management, and private banking services to affluent clients. The company further extends its offerings through private equity investments, securities brokerage, and insurance agency services. With a network of 287 locations predominantly across Missouri, Kansas, Illinois, Oklahoma, and Colorado, Commerce Bancshares serves its primary markets with a full spectrum of financial products and expertise.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Commerce Bancshares (CBSH):
- The Bank of America of the Midwest
- A regional version of Wells Fargo
AI Analysis | Feedback
Consumer Banking Services
- Consumer Deposits: Provides accounts for personal savings and checking.
- Consumer Loans: Offers various personal loans including automobile, home equity, mortgage, and other consumer financing.
- Consumer Payment Cards: Issues consumer debit and credit bank cards.
- Patient Healthcare Financing: Provides specialized financing solutions for patient health care expenses.
Commercial Banking Services
- Corporate Lending & Leasing: Offers loans and leasing solutions tailored for businesses and corporations.
- Commercial Cash Management: Provides services such as government deposits and other business cash management solutions.
- International Banking Services: Supports businesses with international banking and trade services.
- Merchant & Commercial Cards: Offers merchant services and commercial bank card solutions for businesses.
- Fixed Income Securities Sales: Sells fixed income securities to various institutional clients and individuals.
Wealth Management & Trust Services
- Trust & Estate Planning: Provides traditional trust and estate planning services.
- Investment Portfolio Management: Offers advisory and discretionary management of investment portfolios.
- Brokerage Services: Provides securities brokerage services.
- Private Banking: Offers specialized banking accounts and services for high-net-worth individuals.
- Insurance Agency Services: Provides various insurance products through its agency.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) serves a broad base of customers, including individuals, businesses, and public institutions. Given its extensive network of 287 locations and diversified product offerings across consumer, commercial, and wealth segments, it does not primarily sell to a few specific companies. Instead, it serves a wide array of clients. Its major customer categories include:
-
Individual Consumers: This category encompasses individuals seeking retail banking products and services such as consumer deposits, various types of consumer loans (e.g., automobile, home equity, real estate), patient health care financing, personal mortgage banking, installment lending, and consumer debit and credit cards.
-
Businesses, Corporations, and Government Entities: This includes a wide range of commercial clients, from small businesses to large corporations, as well as correspondent banks, public institutions, and municipalities. They utilize services like corporate lending, leasing, international banking, merchant and commercial bank card services, securities safekeeping, bond accounting, business products, government deposits, and commercial cash management services.
-
High-Net-Worth Individuals and Families (Wealth Management Clients): These clients are served through the company's Wealth segment, which provides traditional trust and estate planning, advisory and discretionary investment portfolio management, brokerage services, and private banking accounts.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
John W. Kemper, President and Chief Executive Officer
John W. Kemper serves as the President and Chief Executive Officer of Commerce Bancshares, Inc., and Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Commerce Bank. He joined Commerce in 2007, and prior to his current role, he served as the organization's President and Chief Operating Officer. Before joining Commerce, he worked as an Engagement Manager in the New York and Chicago offices of McKinsey & Company, a management consulting firm. He also served as chairman of Capital for Business, Commerce Bank's private equity subsidiary. Mr. Kemper holds a Bachelor of Arts in history and political science from Stanford University, a Master of Science in economic history from the London School of Economics, and an MBA from Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management.
Charles G. Kim, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Charles G. Kim is the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Commerce Bancshares, Inc. He joined Commerce in 1989 and was appointed CFO effective July 1, 2009. Mr. Kim has corporate responsibility for all financial functions of the company. He also oversees the consumer banking segment, which includes consumer card, real estate lending, and indirect lending, as well as technology and enterprise operations, enterprise digital strategy, marketing, strategic planning, government relations, and Capital for Business. He holds a Bachelor of Science in business administration and an Executive MBA from Washington University in St. Louis. Mr. Kim serves on the boards of multiple organizations, including PayGround, Inc., BJC Healthcare/Missouri Baptist Medical Center, Junior Achievement, and the Bank Administration Institute (BAI).
David W. Kemper, Executive Chairman
David W. Kemper is the Executive Chairman of Commerce Bancshares, Inc. He joined Commerce Bank in 1978 as Vice President in charge of Commercial Lending. Mr. Kemper previously served as the company's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer from 1991 to 2018. He received his undergraduate degree from Harvard University, a Master of Arts in English literature from Worcester College at Oxford University, and an MBA from the Stanford Graduate School of Business. He is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and has served as the Past President of the Federal Advisory Council to the Federal Reserve Board. Mr. Kemper is also a director of Post Holdings, Inc., Tower Properties Company, and Enterprise Holdings.
Kevin G. Barth, Executive Vice President and Chairman and Chief Executive Officer for Commerce Bank – Kansas City
Kevin G. Barth is an Executive Vice President of Commerce Bancshares, Inc. and serves as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer for Commerce Bank – Kansas City. He joined Commerce in 1984. Mr. Barth is responsible for Commerce's operations in Kansas, Colorado, Oklahoma, and Texas, and oversees strategy, product development, and policy for the company's commercial banking segment. He earned his Bachelor of Arts degree in business administration from Graceland University and an MBA from Rockhurst University.
Robert S. Holmes, Executive Vice President and Chairman and CEO of Commerce Bank of St. Louis
Robert S. Holmes is an Executive Vice President of Commerce Bancshares, Inc., and Chairman and CEO of Commerce Bank of St. Louis. He is a member of the Executive Management Committee of Commerce Bancshares, Inc. Mr. Holmes is responsible for the bank's commercial banking activities in the St. Louis region, as well as commercial offices in Cincinnati, Nashville, Indianapolis, Grand Rapids, and community markets in Missouri, Kansas, and Illinois. He also oversees community relations and foundation advisory services for the St. Louis region.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) include:
- Regional Market Concentration and Economic Fluctuations: Commerce Bancshares' financial performance is highly sensitive to economic conditions, particularly in its primary operating markets of Missouri, Kansas, central Illinois, Oklahoma, and Colorado. An economic downturn in these specific regions could lead to decreased loan demand, an increase in loan delinquencies and defaults, and overall negative impacts on the company's financial health.
- Regulatory Changes: The financial services industry is subject to extensive and evolving regulations. Changes in governmental laws or policies, such as those related to consumer protection, capital requirements, or specific revenue streams like interchange fees, could impose significant compliance costs on Commerce Bancshares or restrict its operational flexibility, thereby impacting profitability. There is a push in Congress to potentially reduce interchange fees, which could represent a risk of approximately $20 million, or 2-3% of CBSH's earnings.
- Intense Competition: Commerce Bancshares operates in a highly competitive banking environment and faces significant competition from larger financial institutions that possess greater resources. This competition could potentially lead to an erosion of CBSH's market share if these larger entities offer more competitive rates or introduce innovative products and services that CBSH does not provide.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Digital-first banks (neobanks) and fintech companies offering consumer and small business banking products with superior digital user experiences, lower fees, and often higher interest rates, challenging Commerce Bank's traditional branch-based model and customer acquisition.
- Robo-advisors and low-cost digital investment platforms providing automated and accessible wealth management and brokerage services, competing with Commerce Bank's traditional advisory and discretionary investment offerings.
- Large technology companies (Big Tech) and the broader trend of embedded finance, where non-financial companies integrate financial services (payments, lending, credit) directly into their platforms, potentially disintermediating Commerce Bank from its customer relationships by offering alternative financial ecosystems.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. operates in various financial markets within the United States. The addressable markets for its main products and services, primarily in the U.S., are substantial:
- Retail Banking: The U.S. retail banking market generated a revenue of USD 454.3 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 678.3 billion by 2033. Another estimate values the U.S. retail banking market at USD 870 billion in 2025, projected to grow to USD 1,112.2 billion by 2031. Furthermore, the U.S. market generated revenue of USD 1.28 trillion in 2025.
- Mortgage Banking: The U.S. mortgage lender market size was USD 1.29 trillion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 2.31 trillion in 2030. The total commercial real estate (CRE) mortgage borrowing and lending in the U.S. is estimated to have totaled USD 498 billion in 2024.
- Commercial Banking and Lending: The U.S. commercial banking market size is estimated at USD 765.53 billion in 2026 and is on track to reach USD 954.48 billion by 2031. Commercial lending constituted 43.78% of the U.S. commercial banking market share in 2025.
- Wealth Management: The global wealth management market size was valued at USD 1.83 trillion in 2024 and is poised to grow to USD 5.95 trillion by 2033. Revenues generated from fee-based advisory relationships in the U.S. grew from approximately USD 150 billion in 2015 to USD 260 billion in 2024.
- Asset Management: The United States asset management market size is projected at USD 70.97 trillion in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 125.98 trillion by 2031. The United States Assets Under Management market is valued at approximately USD 140 trillion.
- Securities Brokerage: The U.S. securities brokerage market was valued at USD 201.07 billion in 2024, and is expected to reach USD 252.58 billion by 2030. Another estimate places the U.S. securities brokerage market size at USD 4.03 billion in 2026, projected to reach USD 4.93 billion by 2031.
- Trust Services: The U.S. Trust and Corporate Services market is estimated at USD 2.2 billion in 2024.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- Strategic Acquisitions and Market Expansion: A significant driver of future revenue growth is the strategic acquisition of FineMark Holdings, Inc., which was completed on January 1, 2026. This acquisition is anticipated to substantially enhance Commerce Bancshares' wealth management capabilities and expand its geographical footprint into high-growth markets, including Florida, Arizona, and South Carolina.
- Growth in Wealth Management and Trust Services: Beyond acquisitions, Commerce Bancshares is focused on organic growth within its wealth management and trust services segments. This involves expanding its referral strategy with affluent households, implementing enhanced sales and service processes, developing and recruiting talent, and investing in digital tools to provide a seamless client experience. These efforts are expected to continue driving non-interest income.
- Consistent Loan Growth: The company anticipates continued growth in its loan portfolio, benefiting from stable demand across its commercial and consumer lending segments. Analysts project future increases in both loans and deposits, with forecasts of 4.4% for loans and 2.6% for deposits. A more favorable lending environment, potentially influenced by Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, is also expected to support loan growth.
- Technology Investments and Digital Offering Advancement: Commerce Bancshares is actively investing in technology to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency, having committed over $50 million to such investments in 2024. This includes improving digital tools and resources, implementing new private banking loan and deposit systems, and leveraging technology to boost non-interest income streams.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- On November 3, 2025, Commerce Bancshares approved a share repurchase program authorizing the repurchase of up to 5,000,000 total shares of common stock, combining a new authorization with the remaining amount from a prior authorization in April 2024.
- As of December 31, 2024, approximately 3.6 million shares remained available under the existing share repurchase authorization.
- Repurchases under the program can be executed through various methods, including open market purchases or privately negotiated transactions, at management's discretion, and the program can be suspended, modified, or terminated at any time.
Share Issuance
- Commerce Bancshares declared a 5% common stock dividend on October 31, 2025, payable on December 16, 2025.
- For the year ended December 31, 2025, Commerce Bancshares' shares outstanding increased by 3.03% to 0.139 billion from 2024.
- The acquisition of FineMark Holdings, Inc. was an all-stock transaction, which involved the issuance of Commerce Bancshares' common stock. The exchange ratio for this acquisition was adjusted to 0.7245 shares of Commerce stock for each FineMark share, reflecting the 5% stock dividend.
Outbound Investments
- Commerce Bancshares completed the acquisition of FineMark Holdings, Inc. on January 1, 2026.
- This acquisition was an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $585 million, based on Commerce's closing stock price on June 13, 2025.
- The acquisition strategically expanded Commerce's private banking and wealth management business, reinforcing its presence in Florida and adding locations in Arizona and South Carolina.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 106.73 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.4 |
| Rev LTM | 1,989 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 752 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 597 |
| CFO LTM | 797 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 627 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | - |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 41.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 39.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 39.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 37.4% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial | 814 | 779 | 768 | 678 | 665 |
| Retail Banking | 603 | 612 | 653 | 473 | 467 |
| Wealth | 357 | 331 | 318 | 288 | 285 |
| Other/Elimination | -9 | -66 | -167 | 71 | -21 |
| Investment securities gains, net | 30 | ||||
| Total | 1,764 | 1,656 | 1,571 | 1,509 | 1,426 |
| $ Mil | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial | 224 | 227 | 244 | 701 | 122 |
| Retail Banking | 78 | 80 | 77 | 692 | 138 |
| Wealth | 70 | 70 | 60 | 239 | |
| Other/Elimination | 5 | -9 | 7 | 54 | |
| Elimination | 8 | ||||
| Money Management | 5 | ||||
| Total | 377 | 369 | 388 | 1,685 | 274 |
| $ Mil | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial | 6,654 | 6,173 | 5,396 | 4,705 | 4,473 |
| Retail Banking | 4,904 | 4,600 | 4,162 | 4,008 | 3,844 |
| Elimination | 4,857 | ||||
| Money Management | 39 | 384 | 236 | 21 | 29 |
| Other | 5,240 | ||||
| Total | 16,454 | 11,157 | 9,795 | 13,973 | 8,346 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $57.79 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 8.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/07/1984 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -6.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $52.50 | $52.00 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | 10.1% | 11.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 17.4% | 21.1% |
| Downside Capture | -47.70 | 38.84 |
| Upside Capture | 42.14 | 29.55 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 11.2% | 25.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.30 | 0.34 | 0.46 | 0.52 | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| Up Beta | 1.15 | 0.64 | 0.62 | 0.85 | 0.87 | 0.83 |
| Down Beta | 0.52 | -0.08 | 0.36 | 0.57 | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| Up Capture | 2% | 28% | 36% | 30% | 22% | 43% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 24 | 36 | 66 | 129 | 384 |
| Down Capture | -8% | -2% | 47% | 41% | 71% | 94% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 15 | 25 | 56 | 118 | 360 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CBSH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBSH | 1.4% | 21.1% | -0.03 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 5.5% | 14.5% | 0.15 | 63.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.2% | 12.4% | 1.26 | 25.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.8% | 27.7% | 0.70 | -2.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 21.8% | 18.6% | 0.92 | -7.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 16.1% | 13.6% | 0.85 | 36.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -44.7% | 42.5% | -1.27 | 16.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CBSH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBSH | 1.7% | 24.3% | 0.04 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 10.7% | 18.6% | 0.44 | 71.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.1% | 0.61 | 53.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.8% | 18.3% | 0.79 | -2.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 19.5% | 0.28 | 8.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.9% | 0.08 | 52.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.7% | 54.0% | 0.39 | 19.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CBSH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBSH | 6.0% | 26.7% | 0.25 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 13.3% | 22.1% | 0.55 | 76.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 18.0% | 0.72 | 59.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.8% | 16.1% | 0.60 | -8.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.9% | 18.0% | 0.26 | 16.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 52.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 54.6% | 66.4% | 0.95 | 13.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/21/2026 | -1.6% | -0.7% | 0.7% |
| 1/22/2026 | -1.2% | -4.4% | -2.0% |
| 10/16/2025 | -7.5% | -5.6% | -5.4% |
| 7/16/2025 | 0.0% | 1.5% | -2.0% |
| 4/16/2025 | 2.2% | 2.8% | 11.6% |
| 1/22/2025 | 0.2% | 1.7% | -0.9% |
| 10/17/2024 | -0.9% | 0.4% | 16.3% |
| 7/18/2024 | 3.0% | 3.2% | -1.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 14 |
| # Negative | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 1.2% | 1.6% | 3.5% |
| Median Negative | -1.4% | -3.3% | -2.0% |
| Max Positive | 3.0% | 7.2% | 16.3% |
| Max Negative | -7.5% | -9.9% | -7.6% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/21/2026 | -1.6% | -0.7% | 0.7% |
| 1/22/2026 | -1.2% | -4.4% | -2.0% |
| 10/16/2025 | -7.5% | -5.6% | -5.4% |
| 7/16/2025 | 0.0% | 1.5% | -2.0% |
| 4/16/2025 | 2.2% | 2.8% | 11.6% |
| 1/22/2025 | 0.2% | 1.7% | -0.9% |
| 10/17/2024 | -0.9% | 0.4% | 16.3% |
| 7/18/2024 | 3.0% | 3.2% | -1.0% |
| 4/16/2024 | 1.5% | 7.2% | 10.9% |
| 1/18/2024 | 2.1% | 4.4% | -0.2% |
| 10/18/2023 | -5.1% | -9.9% | 1.9% |
| 7/19/2023 | -2.0% | 0.1% | -5.7% |
| 4/18/2023 | 0.2% | -3.5% | -7.6% |
| 1/19/2023 | -0.5% | -0.8% | 1.7% |
| 10/18/2022 | -1.3% | -2.5% | 2.0% |
| 7/21/2022 | -0.8% | 1.7% | 8.0% |
| 4/19/2022 | 0.6% | -4.2% | -7.5% |
| 1/19/2022 | -2.3% | -3.3% | 0.5% |
| 10/19/2021 | 1.5% | 0.7% | 2.7% |
| 7/22/2021 | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.1% |
| 4/15/2021 | 0.5% | -2.4% | 4.4% |
| 1/20/2021 | -0.9% | 0.8% | 7.5% |
| 10/20/2020 | 0.8% | 0.8% | 11.9% |
| 7/21/2020 | -1.9% | -2.8% | 2.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 14 |
| # Negative | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 1.2% | 1.6% | 3.5% |
| Median Negative | -1.4% | -3.3% | -2.0% |
| Max Positive | 3.0% | 7.2% | 16.3% |
| Max Negative | -7.5% | -9.9% | -7.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/23/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/24/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/11/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/25/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/04/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/05/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 5/31/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/21/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Investment Portfolio Maturities and Pay Downs | 1.20 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.20 Bil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/22/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Investment Portfolio Maturities and Pay Downs | 1.20 Bil | -7.7% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.30 Bil for 2026 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/25/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fowler, June McAllister | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 55.03 | 200 | 11,007 | 343,033 | Form | |
| 2 | Dunn, Timothy S | Direct | Buy | 3172026 | 47.71 | 2,500 | 119,275 | 257,777 | Form | |
| 3 | Jakovich, Kim L | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 51.45 | 949 | 48,826 | 655,524 | Form |
| 4 | Rowe, Margaret M | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 51.69 | 861 | 44,501 | 296,775 | Form |
| 5 | Barth, Kevin G | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2132026 | 55.09 | 7,457 | 410,785 | 2,464,877 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fowler, June McAllister | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 55.03 | 200 | 11,007 | 343,033 | Form | |
| 2 | Dunn, Timothy S | Direct | Buy | 3172026 | 47.71 | 2,500 | 119,275 | 257,777 | Form | |
| 3 | Jakovich, Kim L | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 51.45 | 949 | 48,826 | 655,524 | Form |
| 4 | Rowe, Margaret M | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 51.69 | 861 | 44,501 | 296,775 | Form |
| 5 | Barth, Kevin G | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2132026 | 55.09 | 7,457 | 410,785 | 2,464,877 | Form |
| 6 | Kemper, John W | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2092026 | 53.99 | 23,397 | 1,263,300 | 11,151,293 | Form |
| 7 | Roller, David L | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2052026 | 54.48 | 1,134 | 61,780 | 1,663,547 | Form |
| 8 | Brooks, Derrick | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2052026 | 54.40 | 1,044 | 56,794 | 793,424 | Form |
| 9 | Kemper, David W | Executive Chairman | Direct | Sell | 2032026 | 52.59 | 2,842 | 149,447 | 66,508,772 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Regional Banks Resources |
| Bank Director |
| Independent Banker |
| S&P Global Market Intelligence |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.