Carvana (CVNA)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $463.28 | Market Cap: $64.5 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail
Carvana (CVNA)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $463.28Market Cap: $64.5 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.8%, Dist 3Y High is -4.8% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 38x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 94x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 100x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Last-Mile Delivery. | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 102% | |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 52% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2% | ||
| Short seller reportHindenburg Research report on 1/2/2025. | ||
| Key risksCVNA key risks include [1] its significant reliance on subprime lending and the associated credit risk, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Last-Mile Delivery. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.8%, Dist 3Y High is -4.8% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 38x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 94x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 100x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 102% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 52% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2% |
| Short seller reportHindenburg Research report on 1/2/2025. |
| Key risksCVNA key risks include [1] its significant reliance on subprime lending and the associated credit risk, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CVNA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the positive movement of Carvana (CVNA) stock for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 20, 2025:
**1. Carvana's Inclusion in the S&P 500 Index.**
**2. Strong Financial Performance in 2024 and Positive 2025 Outlook.** Carvana reported record-breaking financial results for the fourth quarter and full-year 2024, demonstrating significant sales growth, increased profitability, and a projected continued growth trajectory for 2025.
**3. Continued Debt Deleveraging and Enhanced Financial Flexibility.** The company continued to aggressively reduce its leverage throughout 2024 and 2025, building on a major debt restructuring completed in mid-2023, which significantly strengthened its financial position and investor confidence.
**4. Growing Retail Sales Volumes and Expanding Market Share.** Carvana experienced substantial year-over-year increases in retail unit sales throughout 2024 and is projected to continue this growth in 2025, further expanding its market share in the used car retail sector.
**5. Sustained Operational Efficiency and Profitability Improvements.** The company's strategic focus on operational efficiency, stringent cost management, and improvements in gross profit per unit (GPU) have consistently driven enhanced profitability.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CVNA Return | 160% | -3% | -98% | 1017% | 284% | 129% | 406% |
| Peers Return | 41% | 48% | -18% | 48% | 13% | -6% | 171% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CVNA Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 17% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 70% | 65% | 45% | 57% | 55% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CVNA Max Drawdown | -68% | -15% | -98% | -7% | -23% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -57% | -3% | -31% | -2% | -14% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KMX, AN, LAD, PAG, GPI. See CVNA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CVNA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -99.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 9848.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 947 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -73.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 275.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 77 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -57.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 137.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 130 days | 120 days |
Compare to
In The Past
Carvana's stock fell -99.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/10/2021. A -99.0% loss requires a 9848.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CVNA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.7% | 13.7% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.6% | 3.6% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.4% | 18.4% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.9% | 11.9% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.7% | 13.7% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.6% | 3.6% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.4% | 18.4% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.9% | 11.9% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Carvana
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 276.50 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.3 |
| Rev LTM | 27,142 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,290 |
| FCF LTM | 520 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 327 |
| CFO LTM | 722 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 497 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 3.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.3 |
| P/S | 0.3 |
| P/EBIT | 6.2 |
| P/E | 11.7 |
| P/CFO | 19.8 |
| Total Yield | 8.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| D/E | 1.2 |
| Net D/E | 1.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 9.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 0.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 3.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 92.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -13.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -11.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -1.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | -13.8% | -12.5% | 6.0% |
| 7/30/2025 | 17.0% | 6.4% | 13.1% |
| 5/7/2025 | 10.2% | 17.9% | 31.8% |
| 2/19/2025 | -12.1% | -17.5% | -34.2% |
| 10/30/2024 | 19.3% | 15.3% | 25.6% |
| 7/31/2024 | 10.0% | -3.4% | 12.6% |
| 2/22/2024 | 32.1% | 44.9% | 64.0% |
| 11/2/2023 | 7.9% | 1.7% | 33.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 12 | 14 |
| # Negative | 9 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 18.1% | 10.9% | 19.8% |
| Median Negative | -12.1% | -6.1% | -12.5% |
| Max Positive | 40.2% | 66.1% | 108.3% |
| Max Negative | -39.0% | -30.4% | -50.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7192023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |