Hertz Global (HTZ)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $5.035 | Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Ground Transportation
Hertz Global (HTZ)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $5.035Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Ground Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -90%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -137% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -677 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -7.9% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, EV Charging Infrastructure, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 880% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.8% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -102% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 80% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -53% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 113% | ||
| Key risksHTZ key risks include [1] massive depreciation charges and a class-action lawsuit stemming from its mismanaged electric vehicle strategy, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, EV Charging Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -90%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -137% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -677 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -7.9% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 880% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.8% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -102% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 80% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -53% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 113% |
| Key risksHTZ key risks include [1] massive depreciation charges and a class-action lawsuit stemming from its mismanaged electric vehicle strategy, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HTZ Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Hertz Global (HTZ) experienced a stock movement of -12.2% during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025. Despite reporting strong Q2 and Q3 2025 financial results, several factors likely contributed to this decline or prevented sustained upward momentum.
1. Continued underlying financial health concerns: Despite improved quarterly performance, Hertz Global's financial health analysis by some firms highlighted concerns such as a low current ratio of 0.61, a negative debt-to-equity ratio of -39.52, and high volatility at 115.56%. Additionally, the company still showed negative operating and net margins of -10.85% and -29.58%, respectively. These persistent issues could have dampened long-term investor confidence.
2. Negative longer-term earnings and revenue forecasts: While recent quarterly results showed improvement, analysts' forecasts indicated continued challenges. Hertz Global's earnings for the full year 2025 were projected to be approximately -$589 million, with forecasts remaining negative for 2026 at about -$168 million. Positive earnings were not anticipated until 2027. Similarly, the forecast for annual revenue growth of 1.92% was not expected to surpass the U.S. Rental & Leasing Services industry's average of 5.28%. These forward-looking predictions likely weighed on the stock's performance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HTZ Return | � | � | -38% | -32% | -65% | 39% | � |
| Peers Return | 23% | 136% | -3% | 36% | 1% | 19% | 359% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HTZ Win Rate | � | 100% | 42% | 50% | 25% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 68% | 45% | 57% | 52% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HTZ Max Drawdown | � | � | -41% | -47% | -75% | -10% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -57% | -2% | -27% | -8% | -20% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CAR, R, PAG, UHAL, URI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HTZ | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -69.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 231.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to URI, UHAL, AN, CAR, HRI
In The Past
Hertz Global's stock fell -69.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/12/2021. A -69.8% loss requires a 231.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Now Is Not The Time To Buy Hertz Global Stock | Buy or Fear | ||
| With Hertz Global Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | Return | ||
| Hertz Global (HTZ) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Hertz Global (HTZ) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Hertz Global (HTZ) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Hertz Global (HTZ) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Hertz Global (HTZ) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Hertz Global (HTZ) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| Hertz Global (HTZ) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| HTZ Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Where Does Hertz Global Stock Rank Among Competitors? | November 5th, 2025 | ||
| Hertz Global Stock To $4? | November 5th, 2025 | ||
| Is Hertz Global Stock Outperforming Its Rivals? | November 5th, 2025 | ||
| Hertz Global Stock To $5? | November 5th, 2025 | ||
| Why Is Hertz Stock Up 3x? | June 8th, 2020 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HTZ. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 07312025 | HTZ | Hertz Global | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -20.4% | -20.4% | -24.3% |
| 01312025 | HTZ | Hertz Global | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 45.0% | 23.5% | -20.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 07312025 | HTZ | Hertz Global | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -20.4% | -20.4% | -24.3% |
| 01312025 | HTZ | Hertz Global | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 45.0% | 23.5% | -20.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Hertz Global
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 149.09 |
| Mkt Cap | 9.0 |
| Rev LTM | 12,055 |
| Op Inc LTM | 906 |
| FCF LTM | -954 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -1,087 |
| CFO LTM | 2,124 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,232 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 24.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -15.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -16.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 9.0 |
| P/S | 0.5 |
| P/EBIT | 7.2 |
| P/E | 13.7 |
| P/CFO | 5.0 |
| Total Yield | 3.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -11.3% |
| D/E | 0.9 |
| Net D/E | 0.9 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -10.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 0.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 12.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 20.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -12.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 0.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -55.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | 36.2% | 27.1% | 4.0% |
| 8/7/2025 | 7.5% | -3.4% | -1.8% |
| 5/13/2025 | 1.5% | 12.2% | 5.6% |
| 2/13/2025 | -8.5% | 5.6% | -10.4% |
| 11/12/2024 | 8.6% | 23.4% | 31.8% |
| 8/1/2024 | -7.6% | -11.3% | -21.6% |
| 4/25/2024 | -19.3% | -22.9% | -17.6% |
| 2/6/2024 | 8.9% | 5.7% | -11.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| # Negative | 14 | 14 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 8.6% | 12.2% | 12.2% |
| Median Negative | -9.6% | -10.4% | -10.9% |
| Max Positive | 36.2% | 27.1% | 33.2% |
| Max Negative | -19.3% | -22.9% | -21.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2122024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2072023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4272022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Leef Eric | EVP, Chief HR Officer | 8292025 | Sell | 5.67 | 21,458 | 121,725 | 2,260,673 | Form |
| 1 | Leef Eric | EVP, Chief HR Officer | 5192025 | Sell | 5.78 | 42,917 | 247,880 | 2,425,697 | Form |
| 2 | Leef Eric | EVP, Chief HR Officer | 3052025 | Sell | 4.27 | 6,488 | 27,704 | 2,108,624 | Form |
| 3 | Leef Eric | EVP, Chief HR Officer | 12032024 | Sell | 4.51 | 4,034 | 18,193 | 1,451,453 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |