Tearsheet

Hertz Global (HTZ)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.19 | Market Cap: $1.6 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Ground Transportation

Hertz Global (HTZ)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.19
Market Cap: $1.6 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Passenger Ground Transportation

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -88%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -142%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -677 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -7.9%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, EV Charging Infrastructure, Show more.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 880%
2   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.8%
3   Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -102%
4   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 80%
5   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -53%
6   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 113%
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, EV Charging Infrastructure, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -88%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -142%
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -677 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -7.9%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 880%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.8%
7 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -102%
8 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 80%
9 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -53%
10 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 113%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

HTZ Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback



1. Cautious Q4 2025 Outlook: Hertz's guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025 presented a cautious outlook, anticipating a negative low-to-mid-single-digit EBITDA margin, a projected increase in depreciation per unit (DPU) to between $280 and $285, and an estimated $10-20 million revenue impact due to vendor IT outages and potential demand softness, possibly related to a government shutdown.

2. Negative Analyst Ratings and Price Targets: Following the Q3 2025 earnings report, BofA Securities reiterated an "Underperform" rating for Hertz Global, maintaining a price target of $3.10. This target suggested a significant downside from the stock's price of $6.58 at the time, reflecting a cautious analyst sentiment despite the company surpassing its third-quarter earnings estimates.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
HTZ Return---38%-32%-65%40%-79%
Peers Return31%153%-11%30%2%10%330%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
HTZ Win Rate-100%42%50%25%50% 
Peers Win Rate65%63%47%47%48%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
HTZ Max Drawdown---41%-47%-75%-10% 
Peers Max Drawdown-59%-3%-33%-12%-22%-27% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: URI, UHAL, AN, CAR, HRI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventHTZS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-69.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven231.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to URI, UHAL, AN, CAR, HRI


In The Past

Hertz Global's stock fell -69.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/12/2021. A -69.8% loss requires a 231.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Hertz Global (HTZ)

Better Bets than Hertz Global (HTZ)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to HTZ. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
HTZ_7312025_Short_Squeeze07312025HTZHertz GlobalSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-20.0%-20.0%-24.3%
HTZ_1312025_Short_Squeeze01312025HTZHertz GlobalSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
45.0%24.2%-20.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
HTZ_7312025_Short_Squeeze07312025HTZHertz GlobalSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-20.0%-20.0%-24.3%
HTZ_1312025_Short_Squeeze01312025HTZHertz GlobalSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
45.0%24.2%-20.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Hertz Global

Peers to compare with:

Financials

HTZURIUHALANCARHRIMedian
NameHertz Gl.United R.U-Haul AutoNati.Avis Bud.Herc  
Mkt Price5.22813.6653.89214.34134.82143.89139.35
Mkt Cap1.652.210.68.14.74.86.4
Rev LTM8,51615,9865,97227,91511,4023,8769,959
Op Inc LTM-6774,0097001,284-3462581
FCF LTM-8,713450-1,820-178-9,865-186-1,003
FCF 3Y Avg-8,194446-1,71757-9,621-206-961
CFO LTM1,8464,9821,6201113,6311,1011,733
CFO 3Y Avg2,1364,8121,5334083,6831,1251,834

Growth & Margins

HTZURIUHALANCARHRIMedian
NameHertz Gl.United R.U-Haul AutoNati.Avis Bud.Herc  
Rev Chg LTM-7.4%6.7%5.9%6.1%-3.2%12.4%6.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.1%13.2%0.5%1.3%-3.6%15.6%0.9%
Rev Chg Q-3.8%5.9%3.7%6.9%3.3%35.2%4.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.1%1.5%1.0%1.6%1.0%9.6%1.3%
Op Mgn LTM-7.9%25.1%11.7%4.6%-0.0%11.9%8.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg2.8%26.5%16.6%5.2%8.9%17.7%12.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.9%-0.4%-0.6%-0.0%1.5%-1.8%-0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM21.7%31.2%27.1%0.4%31.8%28.4%27.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg23.7%32.2%26.5%1.5%30.8%32.1%28.6%
FCF/Rev LTM-102.3%2.8%-30.5%-0.6%-86.5%-4.8%-17.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-91.5%2.9%-29.6%0.2%-80.0%-6.1%-17.9%

Valuation

HTZURIUHALANCARHRIMedian
NameHertz Gl.United R.U-Haul AutoNati.Avis Bud.Herc  
Mkt Cap1.652.210.68.14.74.86.4
P/S0.23.81.90.30.51.00.7
P/EBIT-176.215.017.96.1-2.213.49.7
P/E-2.024.248.112.4-2.7-56.15.2
P/CFO1.112.36.974.01.63.55.2
Total Yield-48.8%4.9%2.4%8.1%-37.2%0.4%1.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.7%0.3%0.0%0.0%2.1%0.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-440.5%0.9%-14.2%1.1%-195.9%-6.0%-10.1%
D/E9.30.20.71.25.12.51.9
Net D/E8.80.20.51.25.02.51.8

Returns

HTZURIUHALANCARHRIMedian
NameHertz Gl.United R.U-Haul AutoNati.Avis Bud.Herc  
1M Rtn5.7%-4.9%1.6%8.1%1.9%5.5%3.7%
3M Rtn-3.5%-13.7%-5.7%-2.7%-14.2%13.9%-4.6%
6M Rtn-14.0%17.3%-14.8%17.0%20.1%21.2%17.1%
12M Rtn15.7%-5.5%-25.5%18.8%31.0%-35.9%5.1%
3Y Rtn-69.1%135.6%-19.4%77.1%-34.7%15.6%-1.9%
1M Excs Rtn5.7%-4.9%1.6%8.1%2.0%5.6%3.8%
3M Excs Rtn-9.2%-20.8%-12.9%-10.4%-19.2%6.2%-11.6%
6M Excs Rtn-28.7%2.6%-29.6%2.2%5.4%6.5%2.4%
12M Excs Rtn-7.5%-18.8%-37.3%6.3%10.1%-50.4%-13.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-141.9%68.9%-82.5%6.8%-108.3%-54.6%-68.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Americas Rental Car (RAC)19,25217,64514,35211,32516,459
International Rental Car (RAC)4,2453,6382,9782,6734,563
Corporate1,1081,2142,4531,0641,490
All Other Operations   1,8182,115
Total24,60522,49719,78316,88024,627


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity55,163,204
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-2.4%
Average Daily Volume25,912,757
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.13
Basic Shares Quantity311,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares17.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025512202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024218202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023212202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022207202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022427202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Leef EricEVP, Chief HR Officer8292025Sell5.6721,458121,7252,260,673Form
1Leef EricEVP, Chief HR Officer5192025Sell5.7842,917247,8802,425,697Form
2Leef EricEVP, Chief HR Officer3052025Sell4.276,48827,7042,108,624Form
3Leef EricEVP, Chief HR Officer12032024Sell4.514,03418,1931,451,453Form