Hertz Global (HTZ)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.19 | Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Ground Transportation
Hertz Global (HTZ)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.19Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Ground Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -88%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -142% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -677 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -7.9% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, EV Charging Infrastructure, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 880% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.8% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -102% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 80% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -53% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 113% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, EV Charging Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -88%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -142% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -677 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -7.9% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 880% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.8% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -102% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 80% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -53% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 113% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HTZ Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Cautious Q4 2025 Outlook: Hertz's guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025 presented a cautious outlook, anticipating a negative low-to-mid-single-digit EBITDA margin, a projected increase in depreciation per unit (DPU) to between $280 and $285, and an estimated $10-20 million revenue impact due to vendor IT outages and potential demand softness, possibly related to a government shutdown.
2. Negative Analyst Ratings and Price Targets: Following the Q3 2025 earnings report, BofA Securities reiterated an "Underperform" rating for Hertz Global, maintaining a price target of $3.10. This target suggested a significant downside from the stock's price of $6.58 at the time, reflecting a cautious analyst sentiment despite the company surpassing its third-quarter earnings estimates.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HTZ Return | - | - | -38% | -32% | -65% | 40% | -79% |
| Peers Return | 31% | 153% | -11% | 30% | 2% | 10% | 330% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HTZ Win Rate | - | 100% | 42% | 50% | 25% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 63% | 47% | 47% | 48% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HTZ Max Drawdown | - | - | -41% | -47% | -75% | -10% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -59% | -3% | -33% | -12% | -22% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: URI, UHAL, AN, CAR, HRI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HTZ | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -69.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 231.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to URI, UHAL, AN, CAR, HRI
In The Past
Hertz Global's stock fell -69.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/12/2021. A -69.8% loss requires a 231.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Now Is Not The Time To Buy Hertz Global Stock | Buy or Fear | ||
| Would You Still Hold Hertz Global Stock If It Fell 30%? | Return | ||
| Hertz Global (HTZ) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Hertz Global (HTZ) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Hertz Global (HTZ) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Hertz Global (HTZ) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Hertz Global (HTZ) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Hertz Global (HTZ) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| Hertz Global (HTZ) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| HTZ Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Where Does Hertz Global Stock Rank Among Competitors? | November 5th, 2025 | ||
| Hertz Global Stock To $4? | November 5th, 2025 | ||
| Is Hertz Global Stock Outperforming Its Rivals? | November 5th, 2025 | ||
| Hertz Global Stock To $5? | November 5th, 2025 | ||
| Why Is Hertz Stock Up 3x? | June 8th, 2020 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HTZ. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 07312025 | HTZ | Hertz Global | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -20.0% | -20.0% | -24.3% |
| 01312025 | HTZ | Hertz Global | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 45.0% | 24.2% | -20.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 07312025 | HTZ | Hertz Global | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -20.0% | -20.0% | -24.3% |
| 01312025 | HTZ | Hertz Global | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 45.0% | 24.2% | -20.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Hertz Global
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 139.35 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.4 |
| Rev LTM | 9,959 |
| Op Inc LTM | 581 |
| FCF LTM | -1,003 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -961 |
| CFO LTM | 1,733 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,834 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 27.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -17.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -17.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.4 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| P/EBIT | 9.7 |
| P/E | 5.2 |
| P/CFO | 5.2 |
| Total Yield | 1.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -10.1% |
| D/E | 1.9 |
| Net D/E | 1.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 17.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | -1.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -11.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 2.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -13.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -68.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2122024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2072023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4272022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Leef Eric | EVP, Chief HR Officer | 8292025 | Sell | 5.67 | 21,458 | 121,725 | 2,260,673 | Form |
| 1 | Leef Eric | EVP, Chief HR Officer | 5192025 | Sell | 5.78 | 42,917 | 247,880 | 2,425,697 | Form |
| 2 | Leef Eric | EVP, Chief HR Officer | 3052025 | Sell | 4.27 | 6,488 | 27,704 | 2,108,624 | Form |
| 3 | Leef Eric | EVP, Chief HR Officer | 12032024 | Sell | 4.51 | 4,034 | 18,193 | 1,451,453 | Form |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |