Tearsheet

Calix (CALX)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $54.6 | Market Cap: $3.5 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software

Calix (CALX)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $54.6
Market Cap: $3.5 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Application Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -10%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -35 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.1%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 39%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.8%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Network Equipment, Telecom Infrastructure, Show more.
  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 61%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.8%
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 39%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Network Equipment, Telecom Infrastructure, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -10%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -35 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.1%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.8%
6 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 61%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.8%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CALX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Premium Valuation and Profitability Concerns. Despite reporting strong Q3 2025 financial results, Calix (CALX) was noted in a late October 2025 analysis to remain unprofitable, with a trend of worsening losses over the preceding five years. The stock traded at a significant price-to-sales ratio of 4.8x, notably higher than its industry peer average of 2.2x, and its share price of $68.04 exceeded its estimated fair value of $56.39. This premium valuation suggested that investors were pricing in high expectations for future growth and margin expansion, indicating potential vulnerability if these expectations were not fully realized.

2. Muted Sequential Growth Outlook. Following its strong Q3 2025 performance, Calix provided guidance anticipating more restrained sequential growth heading into 2026. This projected growth was expected to be at the lower end of its 10% to 15% target financial model. Additionally, the company indicated an expected increase in operating expenses due to strategic investments in artificial intelligence (AI) and platform development, which was foreseen to impact short-term profitability.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CALX Return272%169%-14%-36%-20%57%583%
Peers Return-7%60%-9%14%54%-12%109%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CALX Win Rate67%75%42%50%42%80% 
Peers Win Rate30%45%32%45%47%44% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CALX Max Drawdown-26%-2%-60%-52%-37%-16% 
Peers Max Drawdown-22%-2%-23%-23%-27%-46% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FYBR, GSAT, ZD, CCOI, BMR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCALXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-59.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven147.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-44.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven78.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven37 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-49.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven96.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven258 days120 days

Compare to FYBR, GSAT, ZD, CCOI, BMR


In The Past

Calix's stock fell -59.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -59.6% loss requires a 147.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Calix (CALX)

Better Bets than Calix (CALX)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CALX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Calix

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CALXFYBRGSATZDCCOIBMRMedian
NameCalix Frontier.Globalst.Ziff Dav.Cogent C.Beamr Im. 
Mkt Price54.3537.9965.1635.8419.592.2236.92
Mkt Cap3.59.58.31.50.9-3.5
Rev LTM8696,0402621,457988-988
Op Inc LTM-3543211176-126-11
FCF LTM72-1,419283261-187-72
FCF 3Y Avg47-1,48970214-151-47
CFO LTM881,79478637410-374
CFO 3Y Avg651,60833032313-323

Growth & Margins

CALXFYBRGSATZDCCOIBMRMedian
NameCalix Frontier.Globalst.Ziff Dav.Cogent C.Beamr Im. 
Rev Chg LTM-8.8%4.3%8.5%5.7%-6.5%-4.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg7.4%-24.1%1.3%20.1%-13.7%
Rev Chg Q22.1%4.2%2.1%2.9%-5.9%-2.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM5.3%1.0%0.6%0.7%-1.5%-0.7%
Op Mgn LTM-4.1%7.2%4.1%12.0%-12.7%-4.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg0.2%8.6%0.7%13.8%-11.8%-0.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.6%0.3%0.2%-2.0%3.5%-0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM10.1%29.7%299.9%25.7%1.0%-25.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg7.0%27.5%130.1%23.0%2.2%-23.0%
FCF/Rev LTM8.2%-23.5%108.0%17.9%-18.9%-8.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.2%-25.6%25.1%15.2%-14.8%-5.2%

Valuation

CALXFYBRGSATZDCCOIBMRMedian
NameCalix Frontier.Globalst.Ziff Dav.Cogent C.Beamr Im. 
Mkt Cap3.59.58.31.50.9-3.5
P/S4.61.517.61.11.8-1.8
P/EBIT-112.125.6429.99.6-19.4-9.6
P/E-147.3-24.5-97.613.9-9.4--24.5
P/CFO45.05.25.94.1183.6-5.9
Total Yield-0.7%-4.1%-1.0%7.2%0.1%--0.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%10.7%-0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.5%-28.1%1.0%10.9%-5.9%-1.0%
D/E0.01.30.10.61.5-0.6
Net D/E-0.11.20.00.21.4-0.2

Returns

CALXFYBRGSATZDCCOIBMRMedian
NameCalix Frontier.Globalst.Ziff Dav.Cogent C.Beamr Im. 
1M Rtn-19.2%0.8%29.3%5.4%-51.9%-12.3%-5.7%
3M Rtn-7.3%2.5%115.4%-3.7%-45.7%-20.1%-5.5%
6M Rtn15.0%4.5%232.1%9.6%-57.6%-30.6%7.1%
12M Rtn62.2%10.2%106.9%-39.7%-74.1%-27.5%-8.6%
3Y Rtn-24.9%42.7%132.3%-61.6%-59.2%--24.9%
1M Excs Rtn-19.1%0.8%29.4%5.5%-51.9%-12.2%-5.7%
3M Excs Rtn-16.3%-3.0%107.0%-9.4%-51.8%-23.1%-12.9%
6M Excs Rtn0.3%-10.2%217.4%-5.1%-72.4%-45.3%-7.7%
12M Excs Rtn53.5%-4.4%109.2%-52.6%-88.1%-45.7%-25.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-90.5%-21.7%58.3%-132.5%-132.3%--90.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment1,040868679  
Services   3331
Systems   509393
Total1,040868679541424


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,367,335
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202520.7%
Average Daily Volume840,178
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.82
Basic Shares Quantity64,525,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/27/2025
6302025722202510-Q 6/28/2025
3312025422202510-Q 3/29/2025
12312024221202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241029202410-Q 9/28/2024
6302024723202410-Q 6/29/2024
3312024423202410-Q 3/30/2024
12312023223202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231024202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023724202310-Q 7/1/2023
3312023424202310-Q 4/1/2023
12312022221202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221025202210-Q 10/1/2022
6302022726202210-Q 7/2/2022
3312022426202210-Q 4/2/2022
12312021222202210-K 12/31/2021