Calix (CALX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $54.6 | Market Cap: $3.5 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Calix (CALX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $54.6Market Cap: $3.5 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -10%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -35 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.1% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.8% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Network Equipment, Telecom Infrastructure, Show more. | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 61% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.8% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Network Equipment, Telecom Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -10%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -35 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.1% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.8% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 61% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.8% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CALX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Premium Valuation and Profitability Concerns. Despite reporting strong Q3 2025 financial results, Calix (CALX) was noted in a late October 2025 analysis to remain unprofitable, with a trend of worsening losses over the preceding five years. The stock traded at a significant price-to-sales ratio of 4.8x, notably higher than its industry peer average of 2.2x, and its share price of $68.04 exceeded its estimated fair value of $56.39. This premium valuation suggested that investors were pricing in high expectations for future growth and margin expansion, indicating potential vulnerability if these expectations were not fully realized.
2. Muted Sequential Growth Outlook. Following its strong Q3 2025 performance, Calix provided guidance anticipating more restrained sequential growth heading into 2026. This projected growth was expected to be at the lower end of its 10% to 15% target financial model. Additionally, the company indicated an expected increase in operating expenses due to strategic investments in artificial intelligence (AI) and platform development, which was foreseen to impact short-term profitability.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CALX Return | 272% | 169% | -14% | -36% | -20% | 57% | 583% |
| Peers Return | -7% | 60% | -9% | 14% | 54% | -12% | 109% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CALX Win Rate | 67% | 75% | 42% | 50% | 42% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 30% | 45% | 32% | 45% | 47% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CALX Max Drawdown | -26% | -2% | -60% | -52% | -37% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -2% | -23% | -23% | -27% | -46% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FYBR, GSAT, ZD, CCOI, BMR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CALX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -59.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 147.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -44.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -49.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 96.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 258 days | 120 days |
Compare to FYBR, GSAT, ZD, CCOI, BMR
In The Past
Calix's stock fell -59.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -59.6% loss requires a 147.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Calix Earnings Notes | |||
| Can Calix Stock Recover If Markets Fall? | Return | ||
| How Does Calix Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Why Calix Stock Moved: CALX Stock Has Gained 60% Since 2024 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Favorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S) | |||
| CALX Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Calix (CALX) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| Now Is Not The Time To Buy Calix Stock | Buy or Fear | ||
| Calix (CALX) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Calix (CALX) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Calix (CALX) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | September 11th, 2025 | ||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | August 29th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CALX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Calix
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 36.92 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.5 |
| Rev LTM | 988 |
| Op Inc LTM | 11 |
| FCF LTM | 72 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 47 |
| CFO LTM | 374 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 323 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 0.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.5 |
| P/S | 1.8 |
| P/EBIT | 9.6 |
| P/E | -24.5 |
| P/CFO | 5.9 |
| Total Yield | -0.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.0% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -8.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -24.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -7.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -25.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -90.5% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7222025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4222025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7232024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4232024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10242023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7242023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4242023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2212023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10252022 | 10-Q 10/1/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7262022 | 10-Q 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4262022 | 10-Q 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |