Tearsheet

Adtran (ADTN)


Market Price (12/25/2025): $8.815 | Market Cap: $703.5 Mil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Communications Equipment

Adtran (ADTN)


Market Price (12/25/2025): $8.815
Market Cap: $703.5 Mil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Communications Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Telecom Infrastructure, Network Equipment, Show more.
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -20%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -133%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -37 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.6%
1  Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17%
2   Key risks
ADTN key risks include [1] significant financial distress, Show more.
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Telecom Infrastructure, Network Equipment, Show more.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -20%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -133%
2 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -37 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.6%
4 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17%
5 Key risks
ADTN key risks include [1] significant financial distress, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ADTN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Adtran (ADTN) stock moved by approximately -6.1% from the approximate time period of August 31, 2025, to December 24, 2025: 1. Q3 2025 Earnings Per Share (EPS) Miss

Adtran reported non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.05 for the third quarter of 2025, which fell short of the anticipated analyst consensus of $0.06. This represented a negative surprise of 16.67%. 2. Significant Stock Price Decline Following Earnings Report

Immediately after the announcement of its Q3 2025 financial results, Adtran's stock experienced a sharp downturn, dropping by over 20% from a closing price of $10.43 to $9.17 on November 4, 2025. Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -5.9% change in ADTN stock from 9/25/2025 to 12/25/2025 was primarily driven by a -10.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
925202512252025Change
Stock Price ($)9.378.81-5.92%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)983.371035.105.26%
P/S Multiple0.760.68-10.56%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)79.7579.80-0.07%
Cumulative Contribution-5.92%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/25/2025 to 12/25/2025
ReturnCorrelation
ADTN-6.0% 
Market (SPY)4.9%42.1%
Sector (XLK)5.3%49.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The 0.6% change in ADTN stock from 6/26/2025 to 12/25/2025 was primarily driven by a 9.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
626202512252025Change
Stock Price ($)8.768.810.63%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)944.291035.109.62%
P/S Multiple0.740.68-7.89%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)79.5379.80-0.34%
Cumulative Contribution0.63%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/26/2025 to 12/25/2025
ReturnCorrelation
ADTN0.6% 
Market (SPY)13.1%45.3%
Sector (XLK)16.7%47.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The 4.9% change in ADTN stock from 12/25/2024 to 12/25/2025 was primarily driven by a 14.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
1225202412252025Change
Stock Price ($)8.408.814.94%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)905.351035.1014.33%
P/S Multiple0.730.68-7.22%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)78.9579.80-1.08%
Cumulative Contribution4.93%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/25/2024 to 12/25/2025
ReturnCorrelation
ADTN4.9% 
Market (SPY)15.8%54.8%
Sector (XLK)22.2%58.2%

Fundamental Drivers

The -51.8% change in ADTN stock from 12/26/2022 to 12/25/2025 was primarily driven by a -58.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
1226202212252025Change
Stock Price ($)18.298.81-51.81%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)821.421035.1026.01%
P/S Multiple1.630.68-58.22%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)73.0479.80-9.27%
Cumulative Contribution-52.23%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/26/2023 to 12/25/2025
ReturnCorrelation
ADTN20.2% 
Market (SPY)48.3%45.7%
Sector (XLK)53.5%44.3%

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ADTN Return54%27%2%-60%13%8%-1%
Peers Return84%69%-27%-9%33%115%488%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%18%115%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ADTN Win Rate50%42%17%25%42%67% 
Peers Win Rate55%57%42%53%58%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ADTN Max Drawdown-48%-0%-3%-73%-40%-14% 
Peers Max Drawdown-35%-12%-54%-30%-23%-33% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CIEN, CALX, EXTR, RBBN, LITE. See ADTN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/24/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventADTNS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-80.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven400.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-50.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven101.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven43 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-64.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven183.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven645 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-56.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven129.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven511 days1,480 days

Compare to HLIT, NTGR, CSCO, ANET, MSI

In The Past

Adtran's stock fell -80.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/19/2022. A -80.0% loss requires a 400.8% gain to breakeven.

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About Adtran (ADTN)

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides end-to-end fiber networking solutions for communications service provider, enterprises, and government customers in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Network Solutions, and Services & Support. The company offers fiber access and fiber to the node platforms; transceivers, cables, and other miscellaneous materials; passive optical network optical line terminals; fiber to the distribution point Gfast distribution point units; cabinet and outside plant enclosures and services; packet optical transports; fixed wireless access platforms; and network management and subscriber services, and control and orchestration software. It also provides broadband customer premises solutions, ethernet switches and routers, residential gateways, cloud-based software-as-a-service management platforms, virtual wireless local area networks, Internet of Things gateways, pre-sale and post-sale technical support, and multi-gigabit mesh Wi-Fi gateways. In addition, the company offers time division multiplexed and asynchronous transfer mode-based aggregation systems and customer devices; and high-bit-rate and asymmetric digital subscriber line, and other technologies. Further, it provides other access and aggregation, subscriber and experience, and traditional and other products, software, and services. Additionally, the company engages in the provision of planning, engineering, program management, maintenance, installation, and commissioning services to implement customer network solutions; and customer devices solutions into consumer, small business, and enterprise locations. ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. is headquartered in Huntsville, Alabama.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Adtran (ADTN):

  • The Cisco or Juniper Networks for internet service providers.
  • A fixed-line Nokia or Ericsson for broadband infrastructure.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Fiber Access Solutions: Hardware and software platforms that enable service providers to deliver high-speed broadband services over fiber optic networks to homes and businesses.
  • Subscriber Devices (CPE): Customer-premises equipment such as Wi-Fi gateways, optical network terminals (ONTs), and other residential and business broadband devices for end-users.
  • Optical Transport and FSP Solutions: Technologies for high-capacity data transmission over long-haul and metro fiber networks, including solutions for fiber sensing applications.
  • Network Management and Orchestration Software: Software suites designed to plan, deploy, manage, and automate network operations for service providers.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Adtran (symbol: ADTN) primarily sells its products and services to **other companies (B2B)** rather than directly to individuals. As a global provider of networking and communications equipment, its customer base consists of various organizations that build, operate, and utilize telecommunications infrastructure.

Based on Adtran's public filings, including its recent 10-K reports, **no single customer is disclosed as accounting for 10% or more of Adtran's revenues** in recent fiscal years (e.g., 2023, 2022, 2021). Therefore, specific names of individual customer companies that are considered "major" under SEC disclosure requirements are not publicly available.

However, Adtran consistently identifies its major **categories of customers** as:

  • Service Providers: This is Adtran's largest customer segment and includes telecommunication companies (telcos), internet service providers (ISPs), cable multiple-system operators (MSOs), and utilities. These customers deploy Adtran's equipment to deliver broadband, fiber-to-the-home (FTTH), G.fast, DSL, optical networking, and enterprise connectivity services to their own end-users.
  • Enterprises: Businesses of various sizes that purchase Adtran's networking solutions for their internal infrastructure, data center connectivity, and secure access needs.
  • Governmental Entities and Military Organizations: Public sector clients that require secure and robust communication networks for their operations.

Adtran typically reaches these customers through a combination of its direct sales force and a global network of channel partners, including distributors, value-added resellers, and system integrators.

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  • Broadcom (AVGO)
  • Marvell Technology (MRVL)
  • Texas Instruments (TXN)
  • Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (Foxconn) (2317.TW)
  • Sanmina (SANM)

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Thomas R. Stanton, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman

Thomas R. Stanton joined ADTRAN in 1995 as vice president of marketing for the Carrier Networks (CN) Division, and has held several senior management positions within the company, including senior vice president and general manager of the CN Division. He was named ADTRAN's chief executive officer in September 2005, and chairman of the board in 2007. Prior to joining ADTRAN, he served as vice president of marketing and engineering at Transcrypt International and held several senior management positions with E. F. Johnson Company. He also serves as Chief Executive Officer of Adtran Networks, SE.

Timothy Santo, Senior Vice President, Finance, Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer and Principal Accounting Officer

Timothy Santo was appointed CFO of ADTRAN Holdings, Inc., effective March 10, 2025. He brings over 25 years of international experience in finance, accounting, and operational leadership across various industries. Before joining ADTRAN, he served as Executive VP and CFO at Conn's HomePlus, where he guided the financial strategy through a period of significant transformation, including a $1 billion acquisition and capital restructuring. He also previously served as Senior Vice President and Global Controller at PRA Group, Inc., overseeing international accounting, financial reporting, and compliance. Additionally, he held leadership roles at Grant Thornton and GE Capital.

Christoph Glingener, Chief Technology Officer

Christoph Glingener has served as the Chief Technology Officer of ADTRAN since 2023. Prior to this role, he was the Chief Technology Officer of ADVA.

James D. Wilson Jr., Chief Revenue Officer

James D. Wilson Jr., also known as Jay, joined ADTRAN in 1998. He has held several roles within the Carrier Networks Division, including vice president of product marketing, and is responsible for all carrier engineering, marketing, sales, and support functions. Before ADTRAN, he served in various management roles for Wyle Laboratories, focusing on sales, marketing, and engineering management for testing and engineering services to the telecommunications, aerospace/defense, and nuclear equipment qualification industries.

Ron Centis, Senior Vice President of Global Operations

Ron Centis joined ADTRAN in February 2019 and serves as the Senior Vice President of Global Operations.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Adtran's business (NASDAQ: ADTN) are primarily centered around its financial health and operational execution, the cyclical nature of its primary market, and ongoing external pressures from supply chain and technological shifts.

  1. Financial Challenges and Internal Control Weaknesses: Adtran faces significant financial hurdles, evidenced by consistent losses and a concerning Altman Z-Score of 0.88, which suggests a potential risk of bankruptcy within two years. The company has undergone financial statement restatements due to inventory adjustments and has identified material weaknesses in its internal control over financial reporting. These issues impact investor confidence and the accuracy of its financial reporting. Adtran also has complex financial obligations related to its European operations, including payment obligations to minority shareholders and absorbing annual net losses from Adtran Networks.
  2. Reliance on Cyclical Telecom Investment and Intense Market Competition: Adtran's revenue is substantially reliant on the cyclical nature of telecom investment cycles. Any slowdown in capital expenditure by major telecom operators could directly impact the company's revenue. Furthermore, the company operates in a highly competitive landscape with major players like Cisco and Nokia, which puts continuous pressure on pricing and profit margins.
  3. Global Supply Chain Uncertainties and Rapid Technological Advancements: Adtran is exposed to ongoing global supply chain uncertainties, which pose a persistent threat and could lead to increased component costs, production delays, and an inability to meet customer demand. Additionally, the telecommunications market is characterized by rapid technological advancements, requiring Adtran to continuously innovate. A failure to adapt quickly to emerging standards or disruptive technologies could erode its market position and competitive edge.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Network Disaggregation and Open Access Initiatives

The telecommunications industry is increasingly moving towards disaggregating network hardware and software, promoting open interfaces, and fostering multi-vendor ecosystems. This trend, inspired by Open RAN in mobile networks, is extending to fixed broadband access, often referred to as Open Broadband.

Adtran traditionally provides integrated hardware and software solutions for broadband access (e.g., Optical Line Terminals - OLTs, Optical Network Terminals - ONTs). Network disaggregation threatens to commoditize the underlying hardware, shifting value and profit pools towards software-centric solutions and potentially enabling new, specialized vendors to enter the market with lower-cost hardware or innovative software. This could erode Adtran's margins and market share for its integrated offerings as service providers seek greater flexibility, reduced vendor lock-in, and lower total cost of ownership by sourcing components from different suppliers.

Evidence for this emerging threat includes:

  • Telecom Infra Project (TIP) Open Broadband: Significant industry-wide initiatives backed by major global operators (e.g., Vodafone, Telefonica, Deutsche Telekom) focusing on specifications and deployments for disaggregated OLTs and open passive optical network (PON) solutions.
  • Broadband Forum: Actively developing specifications for cloud-native broadband networks and disaggregated access architectures (e.g., Project Cassini), indicating a clear industry direction.
  • Operator Adoption and Trials: Numerous tier-1 service providers are openly exploring, trialing, and expressing a strategic intent to deploy disaggregated network elements to reduce vendor lock-in, lower operational costs, and increase innovation velocity.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The addressable markets for Adtran's main products and services are sizable across several key global segments:
  • Fiber Broadband/Fiber to the Home (FTTH): The global Fiber to the Home (FTTH) market is projected to expand from USD 27.58 billion in 2024 to USD 126.51 billion by 2034, demonstrating a robust Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 16.6% over the forecast period. Another report indicates the global fiber to the home market was valued at USD 62.64 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12.3% during the forecast period. Additionally, the global fiber-to-the-premises (FTTP) market is expected to reach approximately $55 billion by 2030.
  • Optical Transport Network (OTN): The global optical transport network (OTN) market was valued at USD 25.50 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 52.56 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 9.46% from 2025-2032. Another estimate valued the global optical transport network market at USD 20.6 billion in 2022, with a projection to reach USD 46.12 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 9.37%.
  • Enterprise Networking: The global enterprise networking market size was estimated at USD 215.45 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 298.30 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 5.4% from 2025 to 2030. Another report valued the global Enterprise Networking Market at USD 72.93 billion in 2024 and projects it to reach USD 427.2 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 24.73% during the forecast period.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Adtran (ADTN)

  • Expansion into Global Markets: Adtran anticipates further revenue growth from its expansion into global markets, particularly in the EMEA and APAC regions, which have demonstrated higher demand for its solutions. The company has seen significant growth in large service provider sales in both EMEA and APAC regions.
  • Introduction and Growth of Higher-Speed Access Technologies: The introduction and increased adoption of higher-speed access technologies, such as 50-gig PON, XGS-PON, and Wi-Fi 7 platforms, are expected to drive revenue. These technologies cater to the growing demand for faster broadband services and contribute to the growth of Access & Aggregation and Subscriber Solutions segments.
  • Customer Acquisition and Growth in Carrier Customer Base: Adtran has been actively growing its customer base, adding new carrier customers for optical networking solutions and its latest Wi-Fi platforms. This continued success in acquiring new customers is a key factor in expected sequential revenue growth.
  • Increased Fiber Access and Optical Transport Demand: The ongoing trend of increasing fiber access and optical transport, combined with a transition away from higher-risk vendors to providers like Adtran, serves as a durable secular catalyst for growth. This trend drives demand for Adtran's comprehensive portfolio in the fiber broadband market.
  • Recovery in Service Provider Spending: Following periods of cautious spending, a gradual recovery in service provider spending and a return to normalized spending patterns are expected over the coming quarters. This anticipated improvement in key end markets, coupled with encouraging booking trends, is projected to contribute to Adtran's continued revenue growth.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. did not repurchase any stock during 2023 and 2024.
  • There is no authorized stock repurchase plan for ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.

Share Issuance

  • In September 2025, ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. issued $201.25 million in aggregate principal amount of 3.75% convertible senior notes due 2030, an increase from the initially planned $150.0 million offering.
  • The offering included an option for initial purchasers to acquire up to an additional $26.25 million principal amount of notes.
  • The net proceeds from the convertible notes offering were primarily intended to fund approximately $15.3 million in capped call transactions to reduce potential dilution, and to repay approximately $152.8 million of outstanding borrowings.

Outbound Investments

  • In August 2021, ADTRAN acquired ADVA in a deal valued at EUR 789 million ($931.1 million).
  • The merger with ADVA was expected to increase ADTRAN's total addressable market to $14 billion and support communications service providers, enterprises, and government customers worldwide.

Capital Expenditures

  • In 2023, capital expenditures for property, plant, and equipment for the Adtran Networks SE subsidiary amounted to EUR 19.0 million, primarily reflecting investments in the expansion of its Meiningen production facility.
  • Capital expenditures for intangible assets for the Adtran Networks SE subsidiary were EUR 49.2 million in 2023, largely consisting of capitalized development projects (EUR 45.8 million) and investments in software licenses.
  • In 2024, capital expenditures for intangible assets for the Adtran Networks SE subsidiary were EUR 51.3 million, with an increase in investments for other intangible assets, while capitalized development projects and property, plant, and equipment investments decreased.

Better Bets than Adtran (ADTN)

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to ADTN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
13.9%13.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
12.0%12.0%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.0%17.0%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
11.9%11.9%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.1%4.1%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Adtran

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ADTNCIENCALXEXTRRBBNLITEMedian
NameAdtran Ciena Calix Extreme .Ribbon C.Lumentum  
Mkt Price8.81240.2554.6216.792.95396.0035.70
Mkt Cap0.734.03.52.20.527.82.9
Rev LTM1,0354,7708691,1818691,8421,108
Op Inc LTM-37311-353437-104-1
FCF LTM26665729553-8862
FCF 3Y Avg-73684711116-6132
CFO LTM908068811984145105
CFO 3Y Avg49496651313512394

Growth & Margins

ADTNCIENCALXEXTRRBBNLITEMedian
NameAdtran Ciena Calix Extreme .Ribbon C.Lumentum  
Rev Chg LTM14.3%18.8%-8.8%14.3%7.4%33.6%14.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg13.7%10.4%7.4%3.2%2.2%3.4%5.4%
Rev Chg Q22.7%20.3%22.1%15.2%2.4%58.4%21.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM5.3%5.0%5.3%3.6%0.6%12.0%5.1%
Op Mgn LTM-3.6%6.5%-4.1%2.8%4.2%-5.7%-0.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-11.5%6.7%0.2%1.9%1.2%-14.5%0.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.6%0.9%1.6%1.2%0.4%6.0%1.4%
CFO/Rev LTM8.7%16.9%10.1%10.1%9.7%7.9%9.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg5.3%11.2%7.0%10.0%4.1%7.5%7.3%
FCF/Rev LTM2.5%13.9%8.2%8.0%6.1%-4.8%7.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-0.1%8.3%5.2%8.3%1.9%-3.8%3.5%

Valuation

ADTNCIENCALXEXTRRBBNLITEMedian
NameAdtran Ciena Calix Extreme .Ribbon C.Lumentum  
Mkt Cap0.734.03.52.20.527.82.9
P/S0.77.14.11.90.615.13.0
P/EBIT-20.9137.1-99.760.756.9-426.318.0
P/E-8.0275.8-131.1258.1-12.1247.5119.7
P/CFO7.842.240.118.76.2192.529.4
Total Yield-12.5%0.4%-0.8%0.4%-8.3%0.4%-0.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-0.8%2.8%1.5%3.6%2.5%-1.0%2.0%
D/E0.30.00.00.10.80.10.1
Net D/E0.20.0-0.10.00.60.10.0

Returns

ADTNCIENCALXEXTRRBBNLITEMedian
NameAdtran Ciena Calix Extreme .Ribbon C.Lumentum  
1M Rtn14.5%22.4%-2.3%-3.9%4.6%36.0%9.5%
3M Rtn-5.9%75.1%-11.1%-19.7%-22.8%148.9%-8.5%
6M Rtn0.6%194.7%9.0%-6.6%-26.8%318.1%4.8%
12M Rtn4.9%173.2%54.8%-5.8%-31.4%369.5%29.9%
3Y Rtn-51.8%387.0%-19.1%-9.0%11.3%683.2%1.1%
1M Excs Rtn16.5%20.0%-3.2%-5.1%3.5%28.9%10.0%
3M Excs Rtn-10.9%70.2%-16.0%-24.7%-27.7%143.9%-13.5%
6M Excs Rtn-12.3%181.9%-3.8%-19.5%-39.7%305.2%-8.1%
12M Excs Rtn-9.3%158.1%37.6%-22.3%-46.2%348.6%14.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-133.0%313.1%-100.9%-91.0%-68.8%597.9%-79.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Network Solutions974917499438455
Services & Support175109646875
Total1,1491,026563507530


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$8.81 
Market Cap ($ Bil)0.7 
First Trading Date08/10/1994 
Distance from 52W High-25.5% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$8.61$8.69
DMA Trenddowndown
Distance from DMA2.4%1.4%
 3M1YR
Volatility63.8%60.7%
Downside Capture271.34235.53
Upside Capture183.31207.71
Correlation (SPY)42.5%54.9%
ADTN Betas & Captures as of 11/30/2025

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta3.372.232.432.751.671.54
Up Beta0.380.350.431.991.291.25
Down Beta2.392.401.482.121.491.53
Up Capture225%207%302%386%370%270%
Bmk +ve Days12253873141426
Stock +ve Days9213162121362
Down Capture502%296%344%287%149%111%
Bmk -ve Days7162452107323
Stock -ve Days10203162123373

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
 Comparison of ADTN With Other Asset Classes (Last 1Y)
 ADTNSector ETFEquityGoldCommoditiesReal EstateBitcoin
Annualized Return5.0%26.7%19.2%71.9%8.9%6.0%-10.1%
Annualized Volatility60.3%27.6%19.5%19.3%15.3%17.1%35.0%
Sharpe Ratio0.320.840.782.690.360.18-0.12
Correlation With Other Assets 57.9%54.4%13.7%14.7%30.2%31.7%

ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLK, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
 Comparison of ADTN With Other Asset Classes (Last 5Y)
 ADTNSector ETFEquityGoldCommoditiesReal EstateBitcoin
Annualized Return-8.7%19.0%14.9%18.7%11.7%4.8%32.7%
Annualized Volatility55.1%24.7%17.1%15.5%18.7%18.9%48.7%
Sharpe Ratio0.030.690.700.970.510.170.60
Correlation With Other Assets 38.5%40.4%13.9%15.0%31.5%18.8%

ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLK, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
 Comparison of ADTN With Other Asset Classes (Last 10Y)
 ADTNSector ETFEquityGoldCommoditiesReal EstateBitcoin
Annualized Return-4.7%22.3%14.7%14.9%6.9%5.2%69.3%
Annualized Volatility49.3%24.2%18.0%14.8%17.6%20.8%55.8%
Sharpe Ratio0.090.840.700.830.310.220.90
Correlation With Other Assets 38.2%40.7%7.5%18.6%31.8%14.5%

ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLK, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date12152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8,623,856
Short Interest: % Change Since 113020251.5%
Average Daily Volume1,479,146
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.83
Basic Shares Quantity79,803,000
Short % of Basic Shares10.8%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/4/2025-24.2%-23.1%-18.1%
8/5/2025-14.6%-9.6%-2.0%
5/8/2025-3.0%2.5%1.0%
2/27/2025-0.4%-0.2%-13.1%
11/7/202419.3%26.2%33.2%
8/6/2024-18.8%-18.2%-9.5%
5/7/202414.4%17.6%13.6%
2/27/2024-1.1%-4.1%-17.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive8129
# Negative161215
Median Positive2.5%3.5%13.0%
Median Negative-4.0%-6.8%-7.8%
Max Positive19.3%26.2%33.2%
Max Negative-24.2%-23.1%-28.3%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025520202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024303202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024510202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023315202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023814202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021