Adtran (ADTN)
Market Price (6/21/2026): $15.17 | Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Communications Equipment
Adtran (ADTN)
Market Price (6/21/2026): $15.17Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Communications Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Telecom Infrastructure, Network Equipment, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -23% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.3 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.5% Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.1% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 70% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.1% Key risksADTN key risks include [1] significant financial distress, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Telecom Infrastructure, Network Equipment, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -23% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.3 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.5% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.1% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 70% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.1% |
| Key risksADTN key risks include [1] significant financial distress, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Adtran (ADTN) stock has gained about 50% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Beat and Positive Outlook. Adtran significantly outperformed analyst expectations for its fiscal Q1 2026, which concluded on March 31, 2026. The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.14, exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.09 by 55.56%. Concurrently, quarterly revenue increased by 15.5% year-over-year, reaching $286.09 million and surpassing analysts' expectations of $285.48 million. This robust performance was complemented by an improved non-GAAP operating margin of 6.9%, a 300 basis point expansion year-over-year. Furthermore, Adtran provided an optimistic outlook for fiscal Q2 2026, projecting revenues between $283 million and $303 million and non-GAAP operating margins ranging from 5.0% to 9.0%.
2. Sustained Momentum from Fiscal Q4 2025 and Strategic Market Positioning. The company entered the period with positive momentum following strong fiscal Q4 2025 results, reported on February 25, 2026, where EPS of $0.16 notably exceeded the $0.07 estimate. Adtran emphasized "sustained fiber investment across our core markets" and growing demand for automation and software in high-capacity networks, indicating favorable market conditions. Additionally, Adtran showcased its optical networking innovations for AI infrastructure, including the LiteWave800™ ultra-low-power 800G pluggable transceiver, at OFC 2026 in March 2026, demonstrating its commitment to advanced technology solutions.
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Adtran (ADTN) stock has gained about 50% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Beat and Positive Outlook. Adtran significantly outperformed analyst expectations for its fiscal Q1 2026, which concluded on March 31, 2026. The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.14, exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.09 by 55.56%. Concurrently, quarterly revenue increased by 15.5% year-over-year, reaching $286.09 million and surpassing analysts' expectations of $285.48 million. This robust performance was complemented by an improved non-GAAP operating margin of 6.9%, a 300 basis point expansion year-over-year. Furthermore, Adtran provided an optimistic outlook for fiscal Q2 2026, projecting revenues between $283 million and $303 million and non-GAAP operating margins ranging from 5.0% to 9.0%.
2. Sustained Momentum from Fiscal Q4 2025 and Strategic Market Positioning. The company entered the period with positive momentum following strong fiscal Q4 2025 results, reported on February 25, 2026, where EPS of $0.16 notably exceeded the $0.07 estimate. Adtran emphasized "sustained fiber investment across our core markets" and growing demand for automation and software in high-capacity networks, indicating favorable market conditions. Additionally, Adtran showcased its optical networking innovations for AI infrastructure, including the LiteWave800™ ultra-low-power 800G pluggable transceiver, at OFC 2026 in March 2026, demonstrating its commitment to advanced technology solutions.
3. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Increased Price Targets. Following the strong fiscal Q1 2026 results, numerous financial analysts either reiterated "Buy" ratings or upgraded their outlooks, simultaneously increasing their price targets for Adtran. For instance, Rosenblatt raised its price target for ADTN to $20, while B. Riley Securities adjusted its target to $21. The average analyst rating for Adtran shifted to a "Buy" with an average price target of $19.50 as of May 7, 2026, signaling a significant projected upside from the then-current stock price.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 48.7% change in ADTN stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 44.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.20 | 15.17 | 48.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,084 | 1,122 | 3.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.8 | 1.1 | 44.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 80 | 80 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 48.7% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ADTN | 48.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.2% | 21.2% |
| Sector (XLK) | 38.1% | 28.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 91.3% change in ADTN stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 77.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.93 | 15.17 | 91.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,035 | 1,122 | 8.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.6 | 1.1 | 77.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 80 | 80 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 91.3% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ADTN | 91.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 26.9% |
| Sector (XLK) | 34.1% | 33.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 88.9% change in ADTN stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 60.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.03 | 15.17 | 88.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 944 | 1,122 | 18.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.7 | 1.1 | 60.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 80 | 80 | -1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 88.9% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ADTN | 89.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 28.1% | 34.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | 66.8% | 38.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 72.2% change in ADTN stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 87.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.81 | 15.17 | 72.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,195 | 1,122 | -6.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.6 | 1.1 | 87.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 78 | 80 | -2.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 72.2% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ADTN | 72.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 85.7% | 38.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | 137.9% | 37.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ADTN Return | 27% | 2% | -60% | 13% | 4% | 74% | 7% |
| Peers Return | 69% | -27% | -9% | 33% | 107% | 54% | 373% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ADTN Win Rate | 42% | 17% | 25% | 42% | 67% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 42% | 53% | 58% | 58% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ADTN Max Drawdown | -29% | -29% | -74% | -41% | -39% | -26% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -33% | -55% | -46% | -34% | -42% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CIEN, CALX, EXTR, RBBN, LITE. See ADTN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ADTN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 331 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -10.7% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.0% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 10 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -50.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 100.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 426 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -52.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 111.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1075 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -10.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 19 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -40.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 20 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Adtran's stock fell -38.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 63.1% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | ADTN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 331 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -50.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 100.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 426 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -52.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 111.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1075 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -40.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 20 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -41.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 757 days | 105 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -36.7% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.1% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 442 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -26.6% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.3% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -44.8% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 81.3% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 224 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Adtran's stock fell -38.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 63.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Adtran (ADTN)
Adtran Holdings, Inc. (ADTN) provides end-to-end fiber networking solutions and related communication technologies globally. The company's core offerings include infrastructure for fiber access networks, such as passive optical network optical line terminals (OLTs) and fiber to the distribution point (FTTdp units), alongside packet optical transports and fixed wireless access platforms. Adtran also supplies a range of customer premises equipment like residential and multi-gigabit mesh Wi-Fi gateways, Ethernet switches, and routers, along with network management software and cloud-based service platforms.
Adtran's solutions cater primarily to communications service providers, enterprises, and government customers, enabling them to build, manage, and upgrade their broadband and communication networks. Beyond hardware and software, the company offers extensive professional services including planning, engineering, installation, and maintenance to ensure seamless implementation and operation of customer networks. Adtran operates internationally, with a significant presence in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Mexico.
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Adtran is like a specialized Cisco for the fiber-optic networks that internet service providers build and manage.
Alternatively, Adtran is like CommScope (Arris) for fiber internet equipment, providing the hardware and software that enable high-speed connections from the network to your home or business.
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Major Products and Services of Adtran (ADTN)
- Fiber Access Platforms: Provide end-to-end fiber networking solutions, including fiber access, fiber to the node platforms, passive optical network optical line terminals (OLTs), and Gfast distribution point units.
- Network Transport Equipment: Includes packet optical transports and fixed wireless access platforms for data transmission.
- Customer Premises Equipment (CPE): Offers broadband customer premises solutions, Ethernet switches, routers, residential gateways, and multi-gigabit mesh Wi-Fi gateways.
- IoT & WLAN Gateways: Provides virtual wireless local area networks (WLANs) and Internet of Things (IoT) gateways.
- Legacy Access & Aggregation Systems: Supports time division multiplexed (TDM) and asynchronous transfer mode (ATM)-based aggregation systems and various DSL technologies.
- Network Management Software: Offers network management, subscriber services, and control and orchestration software.
- Cloud-based SaaS Platforms: Provides cloud-based software-as-a-service management platforms.
- Technical Support Services: Delivers pre-sale and post-sale technical support for its product offerings.
- Network Deployment & Integration: Encompasses planning, engineering, program management, maintenance, installation, and commissioning services for customer network solutions.
- Customer Device Solutions: Provides services for implementing customer devices into consumer, small business, and enterprise locations.
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Adtran (ADTN) primarily sells its end-to-end fiber networking solutions to other companies and organizations. Based on the provided background, its major customer categories are:
- Communications Service Providers
- Enterprises
- Government customers
The background information does not provide specific names of individual customer companies or their public stock symbols.
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Tom Stanton, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer
Tom Stanton joined Adtran in 1995 and has served as Chief Executive Officer since 2005 and Chairman of the Board since 2007. He is also the Chief Executive Officer of Adtran Networks, SE, which was formerly Adva Optical Networks, SE, and was acquired by Adtran in 2022. Prior to his time at Adtran, he held executive roles at Transcrypt International and several senior management positions with E. F. Johnson Company.
Timothy Santo, Senior Vice President, Finance, Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer and Principal Accounting Officer
Timothy Santo was appointed CFO, Principal Accounting Officer, and Treasurer of ADTRAN Holdings, Inc., effective March 10, 2025. He brings over 25 years of international experience in finance, accounting, and operational leadership. Before joining Adtran, Mr. Santo served as Executive Vice President and CFO at Conn's HomePlus, where he oversaw financial strategy, including a $1 billion acquisition and capital restructuring. He was also Senior Vice President and Global Controller at PRA Group, managing the international accounting, financial reporting, and compliance for a $3 billion portfolio. Earlier in his career, he held leadership roles at Grant Thornton and GE, and started at PwC where he earned his Certified Public Accountant certification.
Christoph Glingener, Chief Technology Officer
Christoph Glingener holds a master's degree in Electrical Engineering and a Ph.D. in Optical Communications from the Technical University of Dortmund.
James Denson Wilson, Jr., Chief Revenue Officer
As Chief Revenue Officer, James Wilson is responsible for the full funnel revenue value chain, including the company's sales strategy, customer relationships, and revenue performance.
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The key risks to ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN) include significant financial burdens and risks associated with its indebtedness and contractual obligations, a heavy reliance on a limited number of major customers, and intense competition within its market.
Financial Risks and Obligations
ADTRAN faces substantial financial risks primarily stemming from its considerable indebtedness and ongoing payment obligations. The company requires a significant amount of cash to service its debt and meet its payment obligations to Adtran Networks shareholders under the Domination and Profit and Loss Transfer Agreement (DPLTA). The terms of this DPLTA could have a material adverse effect on ADTRAN's financial results and condition. Furthermore, the company is subject to restrictive covenants in its credit agreement that limit operational flexibility, with potential breaches leading to accelerated debt obligations. Analysts have noted a concerning Altman Z-Score of 0.88 for ADTRAN, indicating a significant risk of financial distress or even bankruptcy within two years, as scores below 1.81 suggest such a risk. Additionally, the issuance of $201.3 million in convertible senior notes adds to the financial burden and presents potential refinancing challenges. The company has also been operating at a net loss on a Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) basis in the near term, despite some improvements in non-GAAP operating profit.
Dependence on Key Customers and Revenue Fluctuations
ADTRAN's business is heavily dependent on sales to certain customers, meaning the loss of any major customer or a significant project could substantially reduce its revenue and net income. The company has historically experienced, and may continue to experience, significant fluctuations in revenue. These fluctuations are often exacerbated by the lengthy sales and approval processes required by service providers for new products, which can lead to uneven operating results.
Competitive Market Environment
ADTRAN operates in a highly competitive market environment characterized by aggressive pricing and the presence of new entrants. This intense competition could potentially lead to a reduction in ADTRAN's market share and pressure its profit margins. Persistent losses and stiff competition are noted as factors keeping investors cautious.
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- Fiber to the Home (FTTH)/FTTx: The global Fiber to the Home (FTTH) market is projected to grow from USD 27,575 million in 2024 to USD 126,509 million by 2034, reflecting a CAGR of 16.6%. The FTTx networks segment dominated the global optical fiber connectivity market with a 31% share in 2024. The Asia-Pacific region is expected to lead the FTTH market, followed by North America and Europe. North America continues to expand fiber-to-home deployments, with Passive Optical Network (PON) penetration reaching 32% of U.S. households. The global fiber optic connectivity market size was valued at USD 3.78 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 15.09 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 16.64%. North America held the major market share of more than 40% of the global revenue with a market size of USD 1341.18 million in 2025 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.8% from 2025 to 2033.
- Gigabit Passive Optical Network (GPON) Optical Line Terminals (OLTs) / Passive Optical Network (PON): The global GPON OLT market size was valued at USD 2,760 million in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 7 billion by 2035 at a CAGR of 8.9%. North America held the majority share of the GPON OLT market, valued at USD 1,200 million in 2024 and projected to reach USD 2,800 million in 2035. The global passive optical network (PON) market size was valued at USD 17.61 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 60.52 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 14.80%. Asia-Pacific leads global PON rollouts with more than 48% market share. The global Gigabit Passive Optical Network (GPON) market size was valued at USD 7.73 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 12.23 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 5.90%.
- Gfast Distribution Point Units (DPUs): The global G.Fast chipset market size was USD 5.09 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 35.08% from 2024 to 2031. Another estimate indicates the G.Fast Chipset Market size was valued at USD 3.61 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 11 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 15.04%. North America was the largest region in the G.Fast chipset market in 2025. The DPU market is projected to have the fastest CAGR of 15.79% during 2025-2032, driven by growing fiber-to-the-distribution point installations.
- Packet Optical Transport / Optical Transport Network (OTN) Hardware: The global optical transport network (OTN) hardware market size was valued at USD 19.21 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 32.03 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 7.9%. The global optical transport network market size is USD 29.39 billion in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 44.03 billion by 2031, advancing at an 8.42% CAGR. North America held 24.6% of the market share in 2023, while Asia Pacific led the global market with a revenue share of 34.9% in 2023.
- Fixed Wireless Access (FWA): The global fixed wireless access market was valued at USD 32 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 96.1 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 13.4%. Another report estimates the global fixed wireless access market size at USD 42.61 billion in 2025, projected to grow to USD 164.77 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 16.2%. The global 5G fixed wireless access market size is accounted at USD 64.10 billion in 2025 and predicted to increase to approximately USD 1,621.92 billion by 2035, at a CAGR of 38.14%. North America dominated the global fixed wireless access market with a market share of 35.6% in 2025, and held the largest market share in the 5G fixed wireless access market with 36% in 2025.
- Broadband Customer Premises Solutions (Broadband CPE / Residential Gateways / Home Gateways): The global broadband CPE products market size was valued at USD 12.79 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 19.1 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 6.1%. The global residential gateway market size reached USD 6.5 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 10.4 billion by 2034, exhibiting a growth rate of 5.13%. Another report states the global market for Residential Gateways was valued at US$18.3 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach US$26 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 6%. North America was the largest market for residential gateways, holding approximately 40% of the global share, and was valued at USD 1,617.5 million in 2025. The global home gateway market size is forecasted to grow from approximately USD 6.33 billion in 2025 to nearly USD 11.12 billion by 2035, at a CAGR of 5.8%. North America leads the Home Gateway Market with a 52% market share. The market size of wireless broadband customer premises equipment (CPE) is projected to reach USD 25.59 billion by 2029 with a CAGR of 9.7% from 2025.
- Network Management and Subscriber Services (Network Management Software/Systems in Telecom): The global telecom network management system market size was valued at USD 10.12 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 21.66 billion by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 8.38%. The Telecom Network Management Systems Market was valued at USD 11,411.36 million in 2025 and is expected to increase to USD 22,809.77 million by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 10.4%. North America currently dominates the market, holding a significant market share of 33.2% in 2024, and accounted for a network management system market share of over 37% in 2023. The global network management system market size was valued at USD 9.1 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of over 9.4% between 2024 and 2032.
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ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN) is positioned for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors:
- Continued Global Fiber Infrastructure Deployments: Adtran is benefiting from the ongoing worldwide investment in fiber optic networks, particularly in the United States and Europe. The demand for expanded broadband access and multi-gigabit speeds is fueling the deployment of fiber networks, creating a sustained market for Adtran's fiber access solutions. For example, fiber broadband deployments in the US set a record in 2023, passing 9 million homes.
- Expansion in Optical Networking Solutions: The company has seen significant growth in its optical networking solutions, driven by cloud providers expanding data center capacity and large enterprises upgrading their optical networks. This segment has shown substantial year-over-year growth and is expected to continue contributing meaningfully to revenue.
- Customer Base Expansion and High-Risk Vendor Replacements: Adtran has been actively expanding its customer base, securing new fiber-to-the-home operators primarily in the US regional service provider segment, and winning large new customers in both Europe and the U.S. Additionally, the trend of high-risk vendor replacements in Europe is creating opportunities for Adtran to gain market share.
- Growth in Subscriber Solutions and Advanced In-Home Platforms: Increased success in providing in-home platforms, including residential gateways, Optical Network Terminals (ONTs), and multi-gigabit mesh Wi-Fi gateways, is driving revenue. Adtran's cloud-based software-as-a-service management platforms also contribute to this growth as service providers connect more homes and businesses with fiber.
- Innovation in AI-Driven Network Management and Orchestration Software: Adtran's strategic focus on software and AI-driven platforms, such as its Mosaic One platform and the ongoing trials for AI-driven automation in Mosaic One Clarity, represents a future growth driver by enhancing network management and subscriber services.
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Share Repurchases
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. did not report significant share repurchases of its common stock (ADTN) during the last 3-5 years. The company did purchase $46.6 million worth of ADTRAN Networks stock in calendar year 2025, including $27.2 million in the fourth quarter, to reduce minority interest.
Share Issuance
- ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. experienced a significant increase in shares outstanding from 49.1 million at the end of 2021 to 78.1 million by the end of 2022, primarily due to the business combination with ADVA Optical Networking SE which closed on July 15, 2022.
- Shares outstanding continued to gradually increase, reaching 79.831 million by September 30, 2025.
- The Chairman & CEO, Stanton R. Stanton, acquired 39,735 shares of common stock as a grant or award on January 24, 2025, and previously received shares from the settlement of performance stock units granted on March 1, 2023, under the company's employee stock incentive plan.
Outbound Investments
- ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. completed a major business combination with ADVA Optical Networking SE on July 15, 2022, forming a new global leader in networking and communications solutions.
- In 2025, the company purchased $46.6 million of ADTRAN Networks stock to reduce minority interest, with $27.2 million of these purchases occurring in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for ADTRAN were reported as -7.982 million in the most recent quarter available.
- For its subsidiary, Adtran Networks SE, cash flow from investing activities was negative EUR 81.4 million in 2024 and negative EUR 71.8 million in 2023.
- In 2024, Adtran Networks SE saw increased capital expenditures for intangible assets, while investments in property, plant and equipment, and capitalized development projects decreased.
- ADTRAN's priorities for 2026 include converting customer opportunities and sustained fiber investment across its core markets.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Adtran Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| With Adtran Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Adtran (ADTN) Operating Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Adtran (ADTN) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Adtran (ADTN) Debt Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Adtran (ADTN) Net Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Adtran (ADTN) EBITDA Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Adtran (ADTN) Tax Expense Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Adtran (ADTN) Revenue Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| ADTN Dip Buy Analysis | 07/10/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Adtran Stock (+7.9%): Needham Raises Price Target to $18 From $14 | 04/10/2026 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 34.66 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.3 |
| Rev LTM | 1,187 |
| Op Inc LTM | 40 |
| FCF LTM | 107 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 40 |
| CFO LTM | 132 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 101 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 23.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 21.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 186.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 34.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 0.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.3 |
| P/S | 2.8 |
| P/Op Inc | 91.1 |
| P/EBIT | 79.3 |
| P/E | 105.7 |
| P/CFO | 25.2 |
| Total Yield | 0.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -6.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 20.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 80.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 90.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 40.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 71.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 66.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -33.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $15.18 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 08/10/1994 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -21.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $16.05 | $11.18 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -5.4% | 35.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 83.4% | 66.5% |
| Downside Capture | 124.18 | 230.44 |
| Upside Capture | 160.02 | 244.86 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 22.6% | 34.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.13 | 0.87 | 0.85 | 1.21 | 1.86 | 1.52 |
| Up Beta | -3.55 | -0.09 | 0.51 | 0.68 | 1.15 | 1.22 |
| Down Beta | 7.46 | 7.87 | 1.74 | 1.34 | 1.62 | 1.53 |
| Up Capture | -67% | 127% | 175% | 275% | 469% | 587% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 25 | 38 | 71 | 133 | 382 |
| Down Capture | 34% | -69% | -33% | 57% | 162% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 16 | 25 | 52 | 115 | 357 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ADTN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADTN | 89.9% | 66.6% | 1.25 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 59.9% | 23.1% | 1.96 | 38.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.5% | 12.4% | 1.61 | 34.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.2% | 27.5% | 0.77 | 10.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.8% | 18.8% | 0.83 | -2.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.7% | 0.52 | 6.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -40.0% | 42.4% | -1.08 | 19.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ADTN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADTN | -7.9% | 57.6% | 0.06 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 22.9% | 25.3% | 0.80 | 37.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.1% | 0.62 | 38.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.3% | 0.76 | 11.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 19.4% | 0.29 | 11.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.9% | 18.9% | 0.00 | 27.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.0% | 54.2% | 0.40 | 18.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ADTN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADTN | -1.7% | 51.2% | 0.17 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 25.4% | 24.7% | 0.93 | 38.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 40.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.3% | 16.1% | 0.63 | 8.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.9% | 18.0% | 0.26 | 17.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 30.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.8% | 1.00 | 14.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/7/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/5/2026 | -16.6% | -14.5% | -4.3% |
| 2/26/2026 | -7.3% | -4.1% | 21.3% |
| 11/4/2025 | -24.2% | -23.1% | -18.1% |
| 8/5/2025 | -14.6% | -9.6% | -2.0% |
| 5/28/2025 | 0.1% | 0.7% | 9.1% |
| 2/27/2025 | -0.4% | -0.2% | -13.1% |
| 11/7/2024 | 19.3% | 26.2% | 33.2% |
| 8/6/2024 | -18.8% | -18.2% | -9.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 11 | 9 |
| # Negative | 16 | 13 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 1.0% | 2.9% | 13.6% |
| Median Negative | -6.9% | -9.6% | -7.8% |
| Max Positive | 19.3% | 26.2% | 33.2% |
| Max Negative | -26.5% | -34.1% | -41.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/5/2026 | -16.6% | -14.5% | -4.3% |
| 2/26/2026 | -7.3% | -4.1% | 21.3% |
| 11/4/2025 | -24.2% | -23.1% | -18.1% |
| 8/5/2025 | -14.6% | -9.6% | -2.0% |
| 5/28/2025 | 0.1% | 0.7% | 9.1% |
| 2/27/2025 | -0.4% | -0.2% | -13.1% |
| 11/7/2024 | 19.3% | 26.2% | 33.2% |
| 8/6/2024 | -18.8% | -18.2% | -9.5% |
| 5/7/2024 | 14.4% | 17.6% | 13.6% |
| 3/15/2024 | 2.4% | 0.4% | -14.0% |
| 11/7/2023 | -26.5% | -25.4% | -17.1% |
| 8/7/2023 | -19.2% | -11.2% | -6.5% |
| 4/11/2023 | -23.8% | -34.1% | -41.8% |
| 2/21/2023 | -2.7% | 2.9% | -5.6% |
| 11/8/2022 | -2.1% | -3.8% | -7.4% |
| 8/4/2022 | -6.5% | -1.8% | -7.8% |
| 5/5/2022 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2/3/2022 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 11/2/2021 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 8/5/2021 | -1.3% | 6.2% | -5.4% |
| 5/6/2021 | 1.9% | 7.1% | 19.4% |
| 2/4/2021 | -6.0% | -4.3% | -2.9% |
| 11/3/2020 | -1.2% | 4.1% | 13.6% |
| 8/6/2020 | -5.5% | -4.7% | -18.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 11 | 9 |
| # Negative | 16 | 13 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 1.0% | 2.9% | 13.6% |
| Median Negative | -6.9% | -9.6% | -7.8% |
| Max Positive | 19.3% | 26.2% | 33.2% |
| Max Negative | -26.5% | -34.1% | -41.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/20/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/03/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/14/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/20/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/03/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/14/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/25/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/26/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/08/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/25/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/05/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 09/20/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 5/31/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 283.00 Mil | 293.00 Mil | 303.00 Mil | 2.8% | Raised | Guidance: 285.00 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Margin | 5.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 16.7% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 6.0% for Q1 2026 |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 275.00 Mil | 285.00 Mil | 295.00 Mil | 1.8% | Raised | Guidance: 280.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Margin | 4.0% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 5.5% for Q4 2025 |
Insider Activity
Updated 5/22/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wilson, James Denson JR | Chief Revenue Officer | Direct | Sell | 5222026 | 14.72 | 9,332 | 137,367 | 2,109,045 | Form |
| 2 | Glingener, Christoph | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 5112026 | 15.00 | 22,277 | 334,155 | 699,675 | Form |
| 3 | Glingener, Christoph | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 5112026 | 14.95 | 126,115 | 1,885,689 | 697,443 | Form |
| 4 | Jacqueline, Hourigan Rice | Direct | Sell | 3052026 | 10.29 | 14,406 | 148,238 | 142,095 | Form | |
| 5 | Santo, Timothy P | SVP of Finance; CFO | Direct | Buy | 12012025 | 8.02 | 6,150 | 49,323 | 213,284 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wilson, James Denson JR | Chief Revenue Officer | Direct | Sell | 5222026 | 14.72 | 9,332 | 137,367 | 2,109,045 | Form |
| 2 | Glingener, Christoph | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 5112026 | 15.00 | 22,277 | 334,155 | 699,675 | Form |
| 3 | Glingener, Christoph | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 5112026 | 14.95 | 126,115 | 1,885,689 | 697,443 | Form |
| 4 | Jacqueline, Hourigan Rice | Direct | Sell | 3052026 | 10.29 | 14,406 | 148,238 | 142,095 | Form | |
| 5 | Santo, Timothy P | SVP of Finance; CFO | Direct | Buy | 12012025 | 8.02 | 6,150 | 49,323 | 213,284 | Form |
| 6 | Theodosopoulos, Nikos | Direct | Buy | 12012025 | 7.81 | 12,859 | 100,429 | 407,323 | Form | |
| 7 | Stanton, Thomas R | Chairman & CEO | Direct | Buy | 11252025 | 7.33 | 40,928 | 300,002 | 7,198,760 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Information Technology Resources |
| TechCrunch |
| Wired |
| CIO |
| MIT Technology Review |
| Gartner Insights |
| Ars Technica |
| Communications Equipment Resources |
| Light Reading |
| Fierce Network |
| Telecoms.com |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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