Tearsheet

Adtran (ADTN)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $8.6 | Market Cap: $686.3 Mil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Communications Equipment

Adtran (ADTN)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $8.6
Market Cap: $686.3 Mil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Communications Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Telecom Infrastructure, Network Equipment, Show more.
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -14%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -126%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -37 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.6%
1  Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -16%
2   Key risks
ADTN key risks include [1] significant financial distress, Show more.
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Telecom Infrastructure, Network Equipment, Show more.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -14%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -126%
2 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -37 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.6%
4 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -16%
5 Key risks
ADTN key risks include [1] significant financial distress, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ADTN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points that contributed to the negative movement of Adtran (ADTN) stock by approximately -9.9% during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:

1. Q3 2025 Earnings Per Share (EPS) Miss: Adtran reported a non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.05 for the third quarter of 2025, which fell short of the consensus analyst estimate of $0.06. This earnings miss likely contributed to investor disappointment.

2. Reported GAAP Net Loss: For the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, Adtran announced a GAAP diluted loss per share of $0.12 and a net loss of $10.26 million. While non-GAAP figures often exclude certain expenses, a reported GAAP loss can signal underlying profitability challenges to investors.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ADTN Return54%27%2%-60%13%3%-6%
Peers Return84%69%-27%-9%33%90%420%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ADTN Win Rate50%42%17%25%42%67% 
Peers Win Rate55%57%42%53%58%57% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ADTN Max Drawdown-48%-0%-3%-73%-40%-14% 
Peers Max Drawdown-35%-12%-54%-30%-23%-33% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CIEN, CALX, EXTR, RBBN, LITE. See ADTN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventADTNS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-80.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven400.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-50.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven101.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven43 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-64.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven183.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven645 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-56.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven129.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven511 days1480 days

Compare to HLIT, NTGR, FIEE, CSCO, ANET


In The Past

Adtran's stock fell -80.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/19/2022. A -80.0% loss requires a 400.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Adtran (ADTN)

Better Bets than Adtran (ADTN)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ADTN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
10.4%10.4%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.7%10.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.2%12.2%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.2%4.2%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
10.4%10.4%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.7%10.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.2%12.2%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.2%4.2%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Adtran

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ADTNCIENCALXEXTRRBBNLITEMedian
NameAdtran Ciena Calix Extreme .Ribbon C.Lumentum  
Mkt Price8.43203.7853.1016.642.87319.9234.87
Mkt Cap0.720.63.42.20.522.52.8
Rev LTM1,0354,7708691,1818691,8421,108
Op Inc LTM-37311-353437-104-1
FCF LTM26665729553-8862
FCF 3Y Avg-73684711116-6132
CFO LTM908068811984145105
CFO 3Y Avg49496651313512394

Growth & Margins

ADTNCIENCALXEXTRRBBNLITEMedian
NameAdtran Ciena Calix Extreme .Ribbon C.Lumentum  
Rev Chg LTM14.3%18.8%-8.8%14.3%7.4%33.6%14.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg13.7%10.4%7.4%3.2%2.2%3.4%5.4%
Rev Chg Q22.7%20.3%22.1%15.2%2.4%58.4%21.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM5.3%5.0%5.3%3.6%0.6%12.0%5.1%
Op Mgn LTM-3.6%6.5%-4.1%2.8%4.2%-5.7%-0.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-11.5%6.7%0.2%1.9%1.2%-14.5%0.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.6%0.9%1.6%1.2%0.4%6.0%1.4%
CFO/Rev LTM8.7%16.9%10.1%10.1%9.7%7.9%9.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg5.3%11.2%7.0%10.0%4.1%7.5%7.3%
FCF/Rev LTM2.5%13.9%8.2%8.0%6.1%-4.8%7.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-0.1%8.3%5.2%8.3%1.9%-3.8%3.5%

Valuation

ADTNCIENCALXEXTRRBBNLITEMedian
NameAdtran Ciena Calix Extreme .Ribbon C.Lumentum  
Mkt Cap0.720.63.42.20.522.52.8
P/S0.74.34.62.30.86.23.3
P/EBIT-22.2--112.074.673.5-175.0-22.2
P/E-8.5167.1-147.3317.4-15.6101.646.6
P/CFO8.325.645.023.08.079.024.3
Total Yield-11.8%0.6%-0.7%0.3%-6.4%1.0%-0.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-0.8%-1.5%3.6%2.5%-1.0%1.5%
D/E0.3-0.00.10.60.30.3
Net D/E0.2--0.10.00.50.20.2

Returns

ADTNCIENCALXEXTRRBBNLITEMedian
NameAdtran Ciena Calix Extreme .Ribbon C.Lumentum  
1M Rtn14.9%6.3%-7.1%-2.3%-4.5%32.2%2.0%
3M Rtn-3.9%49.4%-13.4%-25.2%-25.6%95.9%-8.7%
6M Rtn6.1%176.0%12.7%0.3%-25.8%261.7%9.4%
12M Rtn0.3%131.2%49.6%-8.1%-30.3%259.8%25.0%
3Y Rtn-54.3%320.9%-24.2%-10.7%3.1%514.2%-3.8%
1M Excs Rtn14.2%5.5%-7.8%-3.0%-5.2%31.4%1.3%
3M Excs Rtn-13.4%46.3%-18.4%-28.0%-29.2%85.2%-15.9%
6M Excs Rtn-6.2%163.7%0.3%-12.0%-38.2%249.3%-3.0%
12M Excs Rtn-12.4%116.1%40.2%-19.5%-41.0%233.2%13.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-126.0%230.9%-97.1%-86.4%-60.4%419.2%-73.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Network Solutions974917499438455
Services & Support175109646875
Total1,1491,026563507530


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8,494,840
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-1.6%
Average Daily Volume1,278,224
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.65
Basic Shares Quantity79,803,000
Short % of Basic Shares10.6%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/4/2025-24.2%-23.1%-18.1%
8/5/2025-14.6%-9.6%-2.0%
5/8/2025-3.0%2.5%1.0%
2/27/2025-0.4%-0.2%-13.1%
11/7/202419.3%26.2%33.2%
8/6/2024-18.8%-18.2%-9.5%
5/7/202414.4%17.6%13.6%
2/27/2024-1.1%-4.1%-17.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive8129
# Negative161215
Median Positive2.5%3.5%13.0%
Median Negative-4.0%-6.8%-7.8%
Max Positive19.3%26.2%33.2%
Max Negative-24.2%-23.1%-28.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025520202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024303202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024510202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023315202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023814202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021