Harmonic (HLIT)
Market Price (8/9/2026): $12.05 | Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Communications Equipment
Harmonic (HLIT)
Market Price (8/9/2026): $12.05Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Communications Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 50% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Video Streaming, and Telecom Infrastructure. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -60%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -68% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.5% Key risksHLIT key risks include [1] near-term financial pressure from customer order delays amid the industry's DOCSIS 4.0 transition and [2] significant revenue concentration, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 50% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Video Streaming, and Telecom Infrastructure. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -60%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -68% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.5% |
| Key risksHLIT key risks include [1] near-term financial pressure from customer order delays amid the industry's DOCSIS 4.0 transition and [2] significant revenue concentration, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 8/6/2026
Harmonic (HLIT) stock has gained about 5% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Performance and Raised Guidance Driven by Broadband Growth Followed by Market Consolidation. Harmonic's fiscal Q1 2026 earnings, reported on May 11, 2026, significantly surpassed expectations, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.21 beating the $0.12 consensus and revenue reaching $171.8 million, propelled by 43% growth in its broadband segment. Management subsequently raised the full-year 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance for continuing operations to $0.57–$0.67 and the broadband revenue outlook to $475 million–$495 million. This positive news initially drove the stock from approximately $11.76 on May 1, 2026, to around $17.02 by May 26, 2026. However, this upward momentum was not sustained, and the stock largely consolidated or declined thereafter, returning to around $12.24 by August 5, 2026, as the market absorbed the news and awaited further catalysts.
2. Strategic Divestiture of Video Business Amidst Investor Anticipation for Fiscal Q2 2026 Results. Harmonic completed the sale of its Video Business on June 16, 2026, a move intended to sharpen its focus on the high-growth virtualized broadband solutions market. While this divestiture was a significant strategic shift, investors were simultaneously awaiting the fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report, scheduled for August 12, 2026. This upcoming report is crucial as it will be the first to fully reflect the financial implications of the divestiture and the performance of the newly streamlined company, leading to a "wait and see" approach from investors and limiting significant stock movement in either direction until more clarity emerges.
Show more
Harmonic (HLIT) stock has gained about 5% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Performance and Raised Guidance Driven by Broadband Growth Followed by Market Consolidation. Harmonic's fiscal Q1 2026 earnings, reported on May 11, 2026, significantly surpassed expectations, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.21 beating the $0.12 consensus and revenue reaching $171.8 million, propelled by 43% growth in its broadband segment. Management subsequently raised the full-year 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance for continuing operations to $0.57–$0.67 and the broadband revenue outlook to $475 million–$495 million. This positive news initially drove the stock from approximately $11.76 on May 1, 2026, to around $17.02 by May 26, 2026. However, this upward momentum was not sustained, and the stock largely consolidated or declined thereafter, returning to around $12.24 by August 5, 2026, as the market absorbed the news and awaited further catalysts.
2. Strategic Divestiture of Video Business Amidst Investor Anticipation for Fiscal Q2 2026 Results. Harmonic completed the sale of its Video Business on June 16, 2026, a move intended to sharpen its focus on the high-growth virtualized broadband solutions market. While this divestiture was a significant strategic shift, investors were simultaneously awaiting the fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report, scheduled for August 12, 2026. This upcoming report is crucial as it will be the first to fully reflect the financial implications of the divestiture and the performance of the newly streamlined company, leading to a "wait and see" approach from investors and limiting significant stock movement in either direction until more clarity emerges.
Show more
Updated on 8/6/2026
Harmonic (HLIT) stock has gained about 5% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Performance and Raised Guidance Driven by Broadband Growth Followed by Market Consolidation. Harmonic's fiscal Q1 2026 earnings, reported on May 11, 2026, significantly surpassed expectations, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.21 beating the $0.12 consensus and revenue reaching $171.8 million, propelled by 43% growth in its broadband segment. Management subsequently raised the full-year 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance for continuing operations to $0.57–$0.67 and the broadband revenue outlook to $475 million–$495 million. This positive news initially drove the stock from approximately $11.76 on May 1, 2026, to around $17.02 by May 26, 2026. However, this upward momentum was not sustained, and the stock largely consolidated or declined thereafter, returning to around $12.24 by August 5, 2026, as the market absorbed the news and awaited further catalysts.
2. Strategic Divestiture of Video Business Amidst Investor Anticipation for Fiscal Q2 2026 Results. Harmonic completed the sale of its Video Business on June 16, 2026, a move intended to sharpen its focus on the high-growth virtualized broadband solutions market. While this divestiture was a significant strategic shift, investors were simultaneously awaiting the fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report, scheduled for August 12, 2026. This upcoming report is crucial as it will be the first to fully reflect the financial implications of the divestiture and the performance of the newly streamlined company, leading to a "wait and see" approach from investors and limiting significant stock movement in either direction until more clarity emerges.
3. Mixed Analyst Sentiment and Varying Price Targets. Analyst ratings for Harmonic were mixed throughout the period, contributing to the stock's relatively flat trend. While some firms like Needham & Company LLC and Rosenblatt Securities increased their price targets to $18.00 and $20.00 respectively and maintained "Buy" ratings in May and June 2026, other analysts provided more cautious outlooks. For instance, Jefferies Financial Group and Barclays maintained "Hold" or "Equal-Weight" ratings with price targets of $15.00. Furthermore, by July and August 2026, some analysts, including Zacks Research and Wall Street Zen, downgraded their ratings to "Hold" or "Buy" from "Strong-Buy". The consensus rating as of early August 2026 was generally "Hold" with an average target price of $16.60, indicating a lack of strong conviction for a sustained breakout.
4. Continued Operational Strength in Broadband Offset by Valuation Concerns. Harmonic announced several new customer engagements and expansions in its core broadband access segment, including agreements with Bluepeak in July 2026, DNA Finland in May 2026, and Swiss Broadcaster Canal Alpha in May 2026, demonstrating ongoing operational momentum. Despite these positive company-specific developments, some analysts expressed concerns about the company's valuation, particularly its elevated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio given current earnings quality. These valuation headwinds and potential for limited gross margin expansion likely tempered investor enthusiasm, balancing the positive operational news and contributing to the stock remaining largely at the same level.
Show less
Harmonic (HLIT) stock has gained about 5% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Performance and Raised Guidance Driven by Broadband Growth Followed by Market Consolidation. Harmonic's fiscal Q1 2026 earnings, reported on May 11, 2026, significantly surpassed expectations, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.21 beating the $0.12 consensus and revenue reaching $171.8 million, propelled by 43% growth in its broadband segment. Management subsequently raised the full-year 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance for continuing operations to $0.57–$0.67 and the broadband revenue outlook to $475 million–$495 million. This positive news initially drove the stock from approximately $11.76 on May 1, 2026, to around $17.02 by May 26, 2026. However, this upward momentum was not sustained, and the stock largely consolidated or declined thereafter, returning to around $12.24 by August 5, 2026, as the market absorbed the news and awaited further catalysts.
2. Strategic Divestiture of Video Business Amidst Investor Anticipation for Fiscal Q2 2026 Results. Harmonic completed the sale of its Video Business on June 16, 2026, a move intended to sharpen its focus on the high-growth virtualized broadband solutions market. While this divestiture was a significant strategic shift, investors were simultaneously awaiting the fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report, scheduled for August 12, 2026. This upcoming report is crucial as it will be the first to fully reflect the financial implications of the divestiture and the performance of the newly streamlined company, leading to a "wait and see" approach from investors and limiting significant stock movement in either direction until more clarity emerges.
3. Mixed Analyst Sentiment and Varying Price Targets. Analyst ratings for Harmonic were mixed throughout the period, contributing to the stock's relatively flat trend. While some firms like Needham & Company LLC and Rosenblatt Securities increased their price targets to $18.00 and $20.00 respectively and maintained "Buy" ratings in May and June 2026, other analysts provided more cautious outlooks. For instance, Jefferies Financial Group and Barclays maintained "Hold" or "Equal-Weight" ratings with price targets of $15.00. Furthermore, by July and August 2026, some analysts, including Zacks Research and Wall Street Zen, downgraded their ratings to "Hold" or "Buy" from "Strong-Buy". The consensus rating as of early August 2026 was generally "Hold" with an average target price of $16.60, indicating a lack of strong conviction for a sustained breakout.
4. Continued Operational Strength in Broadband Offset by Valuation Concerns. Harmonic announced several new customer engagements and expansions in its core broadband access segment, including agreements with Bluepeak in July 2026, DNA Finland in May 2026, and Swiss Broadcaster Canal Alpha in May 2026, demonstrating ongoing operational momentum. Despite these positive company-specific developments, some analysts expressed concerns about the company's valuation, particularly its elevated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio given current earnings quality. These valuation headwinds and potential for limited gross margin expansion likely tempered investor enthusiasm, balancing the positive operational news and contributing to the stock remaining largely at the same level.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 3.6% change in HLIT stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 11.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.43 | 11.84 | 3.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 312 | 349 | 11.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 4.1 | 3.7 | -9.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 112 | 110 | 2.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 3.6% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HLIT | 3.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.6% | 52.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 17.8% | 60.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 21.8% change in HLIT stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 34.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.72 | 11.84 | 21.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 397 | 349 | -12.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.8 | 3.7 | 34.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 113 | 110 | 3.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 21.8% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HLIT | 21.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.1% | 48.2% |
| Sector (XLK) | 30.8% | 55.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 39.1% change in HLIT stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 69.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.51 | 11.84 | 39.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 451 | 349 | -22.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.2 | 3.7 | 69.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 116 | 110 | 6.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 39.1% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HLIT | 39.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 23.4% | 49.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 43.7% | 54.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -20.6% change in HLIT stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -45.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 14.92 | 11.84 | -20.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 635 | 349 | -45.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.6 | 3.7 | 43.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 111 | 110 | 1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -20.6% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HLIT | -20.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.9% | 39.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 114.7% | 37.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HLIT Return | 59% | 11% | -0% | 1% | -25% | 18% | 58% |
| Peers Return | 133% | -15% | 29% | 34% | 35% | 9% | 403% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HLIT Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 58% | 58% | 50% | 62% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 58% | 62% | 71% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HLIT Max Drawdown | -24% | -32% | -50% | -35% | -39% | -38% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -48% | -37% | -29% | -40% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CALX, ANET.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/7/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HLIT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 178 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 964 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -15.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 8 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -30.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 152 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -16.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Harmonic's stock fell -22.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 28.6% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | HLIT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 178 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 964 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -30.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 152 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -22.8% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.6% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 111 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -49.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 96.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 197 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -53.0% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 112.6% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1251 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -37.3% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 121 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -25.2% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.6% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 157 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -64.4% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 181.1% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4639 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Harmonic's stock fell -22.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 28.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Harmonic (HLIT)
Harmonic Inc. (HLIT) is a technology company that provides comprehensive solutions for video delivery and broadband access worldwide. The company's core mission is to enable media companies and service providers to efficiently create, prepare, and distribute high-quality video content, alongside enhancing broadband internet services for consumers across various devices.
The company operates a significant Video segment, offering advanced video processing appliances such as encoders and video servers, complemented by robust Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) platforms. These SaaS solutions are crucial for packaging and streaming diverse video services, including live events, video-on-demand, and DVR functionalities, often incorporating dynamic ad insertion. This segment primarily serves cable operators, satellite and telecommunications Pay-TV providers, and broadcast and streaming media companies globally, facilitating content delivery to televisions, computers, tablets, and smartphones.
Harmonic's other key segment is Cable Access, which specializes in software-based CableOS solutions and associated cloud services. These offerings are predominantly targeted at cable operators, helping them modernize their networks to deliver high-speed broadband and video services more effectively and at scale. Beyond these core products, Harmonic also provides extensive technical support and professional services, encompassing everything from consulting and system integration to maintenance and training, ensuring seamless deployment and operation for its diverse clientele.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Harmonic (HLIT):
- Harmonic is like AWS for video streaming and traditional TV delivery.
- Harmonic is like VMware for cable TV networks.
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- Video Processing Appliances: Hardware and software solutions designed for video processing, production, and playout services.
- Streaming SaaS Solutions: Software-as-a-service platforms enabling the packaging, delivery, and monetization of live and on-demand streaming video services.
- CableOS Software-Based Cable Access Solutions: A virtualized, software-defined cable access solution for broadband delivery to cable operators.
- CableOS Central Cloud Services: Cloud-native services that complement CableOS solutions, offering centralized management and operational insights for cable access networks.
- Professional and Technical Services: A range of services including maintenance, support, consulting, implementation, and training for their video and cable access products.
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Harmonic Inc. (HLIT) primarily sells its products and services to other companies, not directly to individuals. The background information describes the following major categories of customers:
- Cable Operators: These companies utilize Harmonic's video processing, production, playout solutions, and CableOS software-based cable access solutions.
- Satellite and Telecommunications Pay-TV Service Providers: These providers leverage Harmonic's video processing, production, and playout solutions and services.
- Broadcast and Media Companies (including streaming media companies): This category of customers uses Harmonic's video processing, production, and playout solutions, as well as its SaaS solutions for packaging and delivery of streaming services.
The provided background information does not specify the names of individual customer companies within these categories.
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Nimrod Ben-Natan, President & Chief Executive Officer
Nimrod Ben-Natan has been a pivotal figure in Harmonic's evolution, joining the company in 1996 as a software engineer where he helped design and develop its first-generation video transmission platform. Throughout his career at Harmonic, he has held various strategic positions, including General Manager of the cOS™ virtualized broadband business and Senior Vice President of the Broadband business. As CEO, he drives the company's CableOS™ virtualized cable access business.
Walter Jankovic, Chief Financial Officer
Walter Jankovic leads Harmonic's financial strategy, overseeing finance, operational excellence, and business transformation. He brings over 30 years of executive experience from a range of publicly-listed technology companies. Prior to joining Harmonic, he served as senior vice president and general manager of the datacom business unit at Lumentum, and as president of optical connectivity at Oclaro, Inc., which was acquired by Lumentum. His career also includes senior finance and leadership roles during his 13-year tenure at Celestica Inc., and finance leadership positions at Nortel Networks and as an engagement manager at Deloitte.
Timothy Chu, General Counsel, SVP Human Resources & Corporate Secretary
Timothy Chu serves as Harmonic's General Counsel, Senior Vice President of Human Resources, and Corporate Secretary.
Jeffrey Glahn, SVP Global Sales
Jeffrey Glahn is responsible for the strategic direction of Harmonic's global broadband sales business. With 20 years of experience in the broadband and telecommunications industries, his background includes product development and management roles at companies such as Comcast, Motorola, Google, and TE Connectivity. Before joining Harmonic, he led sales at Xperi/TiVo.
Neven Haltmayer, Senior Vice President and General Manager, Video Business
Neven Haltmayer holds the position of Senior Vice President and General Manager for Harmonic's Video Business.
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Here are the key risks to Harmonic's business:
- Customer Concentration Risk: Harmonic Inc. faces significant customer concentration, particularly with its broadband solutions segment. In 2024 and 2023, Comcast accounted for 44% of the company's net revenue, and 39% in 2022. More broadly, the top 10 customers represented 84% of net revenue in 2025, with one customer alone accounting for 54%. The loss of any major customer, or a material reduction in orders from them, especially Comcast, could severely impact Harmonic's operating results, financial condition, and cash flows. This risk is amplified by the divestiture of the Video segment, as the remaining Broadband business will have an even greater reliance on a concentrated customer base.
- Increased Reliance on Broadband Segment and Divestiture of Video Business: Harmonic is in the process of divesting its Video segment, which historically contributed approximately 37% of its 2025 revenue, to focus primarily on its Broadband business. While this move aims to sharpen the company's strategic focus, it means that future revenue and results will depend almost entirely on the performance of the Broadband segment. This creates a sector concentration risk and increases the pressure on Harmonic to continuously innovate and develop new products within the broadband market, without the financial cushion previously provided by the Video segment. There is also inherent uncertainty surrounding the successful closure of the divestiture transaction.
- Geopolitical Tensions and Supply Chain Disruptions: Harmonic is exposed to operational risks arising from global geopolitical tensions and potential supply chain disruptions. Specifically, macroeconomic headwinds and geopolitical issues, including conflicts in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine war, and tensions between China, Taiwan, and the United States, can impact Harmonic's international operations, particularly those in China and Taiwan. These factors can lead to supply chain interruptions, affecting the company's ability to manufacture and deliver its products and solutions.
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Harmonic (HLIT) operates in two main segments, Video and Cable Access, each addressing significant global and regional markets.
For its Cable Access segment, which offers CableOS software-based cable access solutions, the global Cable Modem Termination System (CMTS) and Converged Cable Access Platform (CCAP) market was valued at USD 6.2 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 15.0 billion by 2032, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.24% from 2024 to 2032. Specifically for the U.S. market, the CMTS and Converged Cable Access Platform market was valued at USD 1.9 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to grow to USD 4.5 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 9.98% from 2024 to 2032. The global Converged Cable Access Platform (CCAP) market alone was valued at USD 7.32 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 14.69 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 9.10% during the forecast period. North America held the largest revenue share in the CCAP market in 2024, at 38.5%.
In its Video segment, which includes video processing, production, and playout solutions, as well as Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) solutions for streaming, the global video processing platform market was valued at USD 7.7 billion in 2023 and is estimated to reach USD 19.5 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of over 11% between 2024 and 2032. The global video streaming market, encompassing these solutions, was estimated at USD 129.26 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 416.8 billion by 2030, with a robust CAGR of 21.5% from 2025 to 2030. Furthermore, the global cloud-based video processing and delivery platform market was valued at US$ 5.97 billion in 2022 and is expected to reach approximately US$ 15.69 billion by 2029, growing by 14.8% from 2023 to 2029. North America accounted for the largest revenue share in the global video streaming industry in 2024, with a 31.3% share.
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Harmonic (HLIT) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives, primarily stemming from its strategic transformation into a pure-play broadband leader.
- DOCSIS 4.0 Adoption and Deployment: The acceleration of Unified DOCSIS 4.0 deployments is a significant growth driver. Harmonic has achieved successful field validation and is ramping up initial node shipments, which is anticipated to fuel strong broadband revenue growth throughout 2026.
- Expansion of Fiber Business: The company is focused on scaling its fiber business, including securing multiyear fiber expansion deals. Harmonic highlights the convergence of fiber and DOCSIS within its cloud-native architecture as a key differentiator.
- Customer Diversification and International Growth: Harmonic is experiencing significant growth in its "rest-of-world" revenue, with a 33% year-over-year increase, and is expanding platform relationships through major new deployments, particularly in Europe and with operators like Telia in Norway. This geographical and customer base expansion is expected to contribute to future revenue.
- Growth in SaaS and Intelligence-Driven Solutions: Harmonic anticipates an increase in recurring revenue from its Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) solutions and other intelligence-driven tools within its broadband offerings. This focus on software-centric solutions enhances recurring revenue streams.
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Share Repurchases
- In February 2025, Harmonic authorized a new stock repurchase program allowing for the repurchase of up to $200 million of its common stock through February 2028.
- This new program superseded a prior authorization of $100 million for share repurchases through February 2025, which was announced in February 2022.
- As of December 2025, approximately $101 million had been repurchased under the expanded $200 million buyback program.
Share Issuance
- In June 2025, shareholders approved the 2025 Equity Incentive Plan, reserving 6,799,081 shares for issuance, with 6,775,531 shares remaining available for future grants as of June 27, 2025.
- An amendment to the 2002 Employee Stock Purchase Plan (ESPP) was also approved in June 2025, increasing the number of shares reserved for issuance by 500,000.
Outbound Investments
- Harmonic announced a binding offer from MediaKind to acquire its Video Business segment for approximately $145 million in cash, with the transaction expected to close in the first half of 2026.
- In May 2022, Harmonic sold its investment in Encoding.com, Inc. for total consideration of up to approximately $10.7 million.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures incurred but not yet paid were approximately $1.075 million in 2023, $751k in 2022, and $1.155 million in 2021.
- The company's asset-light business model, emphasizing cloud-native software solutions, helps control capital expenditure by focusing on intellectual property and software development rather than physical infrastructure.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 37.98 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.4 |
| Rev LTM | 1,111 |
| Op Inc LTM | 61 |
| FCF LTM | 85 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 69 |
| CFO LTM | 110 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 88 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 27.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 37.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 8.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 32.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 33.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.3% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broadband | 361 | 488 | 388 | 351 | 219 |
| Video | 219 | 274 | 289 | ||
| Total | 361 | 488 | 608 | 625 | 507 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broadband | 14 | 75 | 65 | 52 | 16 |
| Asset impairment charges | 0 | ||||
| Lease-related asset impairment and other charges | 0 | ||||
| Non-operating expense, net | -5 | ||||
| Restructuring and related charges | -1 | ||||
| Stock-based compensation | -27 | -25 | -24 | ||
| Video | -9 | 22 | 28 | ||
| Amortization of intangibles | 0 | -1 | |||
| Unallocated corporate expenses | -4 | -1 | |||
| Total | 14 | 75 | 22 | 46 | 19 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $11.84 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/24/1995 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -30.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $13.56 | $11.17 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -12.7% | 6.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 77.3% | 49.8% |
| Downside Capture | 400.19 | 223.11 |
| Upside Capture | 290.10 | 205.35 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 52.2% | 48.9% |
HLIT Betas & Captures as of 7/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.82 | 2.63 | 2.82 | 2.03 | 1.86 | 1.28 |
| Up Beta | 5.00 | 3.10 | 2.54 | 1.13 | 1.48 | 1.22 |
| Down Beta | -0.39 | 0.72 | 1.59 | 1.21 | 1.57 | 1.12 |
| Up Capture | 57% | 275% | 390% | 387% | 347% | 175% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 6 | 18 | 32 | 69 | 140 | 383 |
| Down Capture | 512% | 316% | 287% | 197% | 155% | 109% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 23 | 29 | 55 | 109 | 357 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HLIT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLIT | 36.3% | 49.6% | 0.78 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 43.7% | 25.9% | 1.36 | 54.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 23.3% | 12.8% | 1.36 | 48.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 28.5% | 28.4% | 0.87 | 12.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 32.9% | 19.8% | 1.32 | -13.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.2% | 13.8% | 0.72 | 9.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -43.7% | 43.0% | -1.21 | 24.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HLIT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLIT | 5.2% | 49.0% | 0.27 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 20.5% | 25.8% | 0.71 | 39.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.2% | 0.61 | 40.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.6% | 18.6% | 0.81 | 5.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 19.6% | 0.31 | 1.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.3% | 18.9% | 0.02 | 26.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.0% | 53.0% | 0.36 | 18.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HLIT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLIT | 13.2% | 50.7% | 0.44 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 24.6% | 24.9% | 0.89 | 35.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 37.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.2% | 0.61 | 4.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 18.0% | 0.33 | 8.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 27.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.4% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 14.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/12/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/11/2026 | 0.9% | -2.7% | 5.2% |
| 2/19/2026 | 1.6% | -1.9% | -16.1% |
| 11/3/2025 | -2.2% | -5.4% | -10.2% |
| 7/28/2025 | -4.6% | -5.6% | 3.1% |
| 4/28/2025 | 1.3% | -4.1% | -1.5% |
| 10/28/2024 | -25.1% | -25.0% | -15.8% |
| 7/29/2024 | 21.2% | 11.7% | 22.0% |
| 4/29/2024 | 14.3% | 15.3% | 25.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 11 | 13 |
| # Negative | 9 | 12 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 11.7% | 13.4% | 10.8% |
| Median Negative | -10.2% | -8.4% | -11.7% |
| Max Positive | 24.9% | 22.3% | 33.9% |
| Max Negative | -25.1% | -28.7% | -31.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/11/2026 | 0.9% | -2.7% | 5.2% |
| 2/19/2026 | 1.6% | -1.9% | -16.1% |
| 11/3/2025 | -2.2% | -5.4% | -10.2% |
| 7/28/2025 | -4.6% | -5.6% | 3.1% |
| 4/28/2025 | 1.3% | -4.1% | -1.5% |
| 10/28/2024 | -25.1% | -25.0% | -15.8% |
| 7/29/2024 | 21.2% | 11.7% | 22.0% |
| 4/29/2024 | 14.3% | 15.3% | 25.9% |
| 1/29/2024 | 1.8% | 9.5% | 10.8% |
| 10/30/2023 | 10.9% | 13.4% | 14.4% |
| 7/31/2023 | -22.1% | -28.7% | -31.5% |
| 5/8/2023 | 20.0% | 22.3% | 33.9% |
| 1/30/2023 | -7.3% | 1.1% | -8.1% |
| 10/31/2022 | -10.2% | -12.6% | -0.7% |
| 8/1/2022 | 0.3% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| 5/2/2022 | 12.9% | 2.3% | 15.6% |
| 1/31/2022 | -14.3% | -15.6% | -13.9% |
| 11/1/2021 | 12.5% | 15.8% | 12.9% |
| 8/2/2021 | 23.0% | 13.7% | 6.9% |
| 5/3/2021 | -13.1% | -13.1% | -13.2% |
| 2/1/2021 | 0.1% | -1.3% | 3.0% |
| 10/26/2020 | -5.1% | -11.3% | -3.1% |
| 8/3/2020 | 24.9% | 16.7% | 5.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 11 | 13 |
| # Negative | 9 | 12 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 11.7% | 13.4% | 10.8% |
| Median Negative | -10.2% | -8.4% | -11.7% |
| Max Positive | 24.9% | 22.3% | 33.9% |
| Max Negative | -25.1% | -28.7% | -31.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/13/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/16/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/13/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/16/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/28/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/07/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/02/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/02/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/02/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/04/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/05/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/27/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 115.00 Mil | 120.00 Mil | 125.00 Mil | 17.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 102.50 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Operating Profit | 18.00 Mil | 20.50 Mil | 23.00 Mil | ||||
| Q2 2026 Net Income per share | 0.1 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 200.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.04 for Q1 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue | 475.00 Mil | 485.00 Mil | 495.00 Mil | 5.4% | Raised | Guidance: 460.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Operating Profit | 64.00 Mil | 71.00 Mil | 78.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Net Income per share | 0.36 | 0.41 | 0.45 | 15.7% | Raised | Guidance: 0.35 for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/19/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 100.00 Mil | 102.50 Mil | 105.00 Mil | -26.8% | Lower New | Guidance: 140.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue | 440.00 Mil | 460.00 Mil | 480.00 Mil | ||||
| Q1 2026 EPS | 0.04 | ||||||
| 2026 EPS | 0.27 | 0.35 | 0.43 | ||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/3/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Revenue | 133.00 Mil | 140.00 Mil | 147.00 Mil | 9.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 127.50 Mil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Net Income | 0 | 2.50 Mil | 5.00 Mil | ||||
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 13.00 Mil | 17.50 Mil | 22.00 Mil | 66.7% | Higher New | Guidance: 10.50 Mil for Q3 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/17/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Copeland, Stephanie | Direct | Sell | 5182026 | 13.30 | 4,300 | 57,212 | 276,105 | Form | |
| 2 | Haltmayer, Neven | SVP & GM, Video Business | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 13.24 | 31,766 | 420,604 | 1,773,248 | Form |
| 3 | Haltmayer, Neven | SVP & GM, Video Business | Direct | Sell | 12152025 | 10.41 | 23,835 | 248,237 | 1,557,743 | Form |
| 4 | Haltmayer, Neven | SVP & GM, Video Business | Direct | Sell | 12152025 | 10.61 | 6,165 | 65,380 | 1,838,977 | Form |
| 5 | Krall, David | Direct | Buy | 12152025 | 10.50 | 47,528 | 499,044 | 2,342,812 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Copeland, Stephanie | Direct | Sell | 5182026 | 13.30 | 4,300 | 57,212 | 276,105 | Form | |
| 2 | Haltmayer, Neven | SVP & GM, Video Business | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 13.24 | 31,766 | 420,604 | 1,773,248 | Form |
| 3 | Haltmayer, Neven | SVP & GM, Video Business | Direct | Sell | 12152025 | 10.41 | 23,835 | 248,237 | 1,557,743 | Form |
| 4 | Haltmayer, Neven | SVP & GM, Video Business | Direct | Sell | 12152025 | 10.61 | 6,165 | 65,380 | 1,838,977 | Form |
| 5 | Krall, David | Direct | Buy | 12152025 | 10.50 | 47,528 | 499,044 | 2,342,812 | Form | |
| 6 | Whalen, Daniel T | Direct | Buy | 8042025 | 8.25 | 2,000 | 16,500 | 114,180 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 9, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
| Active Manager |
|---|
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Leadership
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
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