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Citigroup (C)

Market Price (2/27/2026): $114.51 | Market Cap: $208.4 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Banks

Citigroup (C)

Market Price (2/27/2026): $114.51
Market Cap: $208.4 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Diversified Banks

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%		 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -81%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -89%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -102%		 Key risks
C key risks include [1] persistent failures to remediate deficiencies in its enterprise-wide risk management and internal controls, Show more.
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%		 
3 Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%
Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 14%		 
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more.		 
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -102%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
3 Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%
Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 14%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more.
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -81%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -89%
6 Key risks
C key risks include [1] persistent failures to remediate deficiencies in its enterprise-wide risk management and internal controls, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

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Citigroup (C) stock has gained about 15% since 10/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Citigroup's adjusted Q4 2025 earnings surpassed analyst expectations, along with a strong full-year performance and positive outlook. The company reported an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.81, exceeding forecasts by 6.47%. Despite a revenue miss in the quarter, adjusted revenues were up 8% for the quarter and 7% for the full year, with adjusted net income surpassing $16 billion, an increase of 27% year-over-year. The bank also achieved positive operating leverage across most business segments and projected 5-6% growth in net interest income (NII) for 2026.

2. Significant progress in strategic transformation and cost-cutting initiatives bolstered investor confidence. Citigroup continued its multi-year reorganization, including the sale of a 25% equity stake in Banamex in December 2025 and agreements to sell an additional 24% in February 2026. The full exit from Russia with the sale of AO Citibank in February 2026, despite a pre-tax loss of $1.2 billion in Q4 2025, marked a key milestone in simplifying global operations. Furthermore, the company's plan to reduce its global workforce by 20,000 employees by 2026 aims to generate $2-$2.5 billion in annual savings, with over 10,000 positions already eliminated.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 16.1% change in C stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/26/2026 was primarily driven by a 9.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)103120252262026Change
Stock Price ($)100.11116.1916.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)83,30885,2442.3%
Net Income Margin (%)17.0%17.2%1.3%
P/E Multiple13.114.49.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,8561,8202.0%
Cumulative Contribution16.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 2/26/2026
ReturnCorrelation
C16.1% 
Market (SPY)1.1%64.5%
Sector (XLF)0.2%78.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The 26.2% change in C stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/26/2026 was primarily driven by a 11.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)73120252262026Change
Stock Price ($)92.06116.1926.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)81,68485,2444.4%
Net Income Margin (%)16.4%17.2%5.3%
P/E Multiple12.914.411.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,8791,8203.2%
Cumulative Contribution26.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 2/26/2026
ReturnCorrelation
C26.2% 
Market (SPY)9.4%61.9%
Sector (XLF)0.6%80.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The 47.4% change in C stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/26/2026 was primarily driven by a 69.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)13120252262026Change
Stock Price ($)78.82116.1947.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)78,64285,2448.4%
Net Income Margin (%)10.2%17.2%69.7%
P/E Multiple18.714.4-23.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,9001,8204.4%
Cumulative Contribution47.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2025 to 2/26/2026
ReturnCorrelation
C47.4% 
Market (SPY)15.5%74.0%
Sector (XLF)3.1%83.2%

Fundamental Drivers

The 149.4% change in C stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/26/2026 was primarily driven by a 147.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120232262026Change
Stock Price ($)46.58116.19149.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)73,64585,24415.7%
Net Income Margin (%)21.1%17.2%-18.1%
P/E Multiple5.814.4147.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,9371,8206.4%
Cumulative Contribution149.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2023 to 2/26/2026
ReturnCorrelation
C149.4% 
Market (SPY)75.9%64.0%
Sector (XLF)50.2%79.8%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
C Return1%-22%19%42%70%-2%123%
Peers Return47%-13%18%43%41%-3%192%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%1%85%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
C Win Rate33%42%50%58%67%0% 
Peers Win Rate70%43%53%65%72%20% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%100% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
C Max Drawdown-5%-31%-13%-1%-17%-6% 
Peers Max Drawdown-1%-27%-14%-5%-17%-6% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-1% 

[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: JPM, BAC, WFC, MS, GS. See C Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/26/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-52.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven108.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven448 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-56.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven131.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,767 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-38.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven62.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven374 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-98.2%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven5311.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1,480 days

Compare to JPM, BAC, WFC, MS, GS

In The Past

Citigroup's stock fell -52.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/2/2021. A -52.1% loss requires a 108.8% gain to breakeven.

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About Citigroup (C)

Citigroup Inc., a diversified financial services holding company, provides various financial products and services to consumers, corporations, governments, and institutions in North America, Latin America, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The company operates in two segments, Global Consumer Banking (GCB) and Institutional Clients Group (ICG). The GCB segment offers traditional banking services to retail customers through retail banking, Citi-branded cards, and Citi retail services. It also provides various banking, credit card, lending, and investment services through a network of local branches, offices, and electronic delivery systems. The ICG segment offers wholesale banking products and services, including fixed income and equity sales and trading, foreign exchange, prime brokerage, derivative, equity and fixed income research, corporate lending, investment banking and advisory, private banking, cash management, trade finance, and securities services to corporate, institutional, public sector, and high-net-worth clients. As of December 31, 2020, it operated 2,303 branches primarily in the United States, Mexico, and Asia. Citigroup Inc. was founded in 1812 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

AI Analysis | Feedback

A global financial supermarket, much like JPMorgan Chase.

Similar to Bank of America, but with a much larger international presence and a major division serving corporations and institutions worldwide.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Credit Cards: Offers various credit card products to consumers, enabling purchases and providing revolving credit lines.
  • Retail Banking: Provides traditional banking services to individuals, including checking and savings accounts, and personal lending solutions.
  • Investment Banking: Delivers advisory services for corporate mergers and acquisitions, and assists clients with capital raising through equity and debt markets.
  • Corporate Lending: Extends loans and credit facilities to corporations, institutions, and governments for various financial needs.
  • Treasury and Trade Solutions (TTS): Offers integrated cash management, payment processing, and trade finance solutions to corporate and institutional clients globally.
  • Markets Services: Provides execution and access to global financial markets for clients trading in fixed income, equities, currencies, and commodities.
  • Wealth Management: Offers financial planning, advisory, and investment services to help high-net-worth clients manage and grow their assets.

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Citigroup (symbol: C) serves a diverse range of customers across various segments, rather than having a few identifiable "major customers" in the traditional sense. It sells primarily to both individuals and a vast array of institutional clients. Therefore, we will describe the categories of customers it serves.

The up to three major categories of customers that Citigroup serves are:

  1. Individual Consumers: This category includes millions of retail banking customers who use checking and savings accounts, credit card holders, individuals seeking mortgages and personal loans, and clients utilizing wealth management services.
  2. Corporations: Citigroup provides a wide array of services to multinational corporations, mid-sized companies, and other commercial clients. These services include corporate banking, investment banking (advisory, underwriting), treasury and trade solutions, and commercial lending.
  3. Governments and Other Financial Institutions: This customer base includes sovereign entities, public sector bodies, and central banks, as well as other financial institutions such as banks, asset managers, hedge funds, and insurance companies. Citi provides them with services like markets and securities services, prime brokerage, correspondent banking, and debt capital markets solutions.

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  • Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
  • Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
  • Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
  • International Business Machines Corporation (IBM)
  • Oracle Corporation (ORCL)
  • London Stock Exchange Group plc (LSEG)
  • Bloomberg L.P.

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Jane Fraser Chief Executive Officer and Chair of the Board

Jane Fraser is the Chief Executive Officer and Chair of the Board of Citigroup. She was appointed CEO in March 2021, becoming the first woman to lead a major Wall Street bank. Fraser joined Citigroup in 2004, initially as Head of Client Strategy in the investment and global banking division. She swiftly advanced through various leadership roles, including Global Head of Strategy and Mergers & Acquisitions from 2007 to 2009, a period during which she was part of the executive team responsible for restructuring the group during the 2008 financial crisis. Her career at Citi also includes serving as CEO of Citi Private Bank, CEO of Citigroup Latin America, and President of Citi and CEO of Global Consumer Banking. Fraser has overseen the divestiture of several retail banking and credit card operations in various markets as part of efforts to simplify the bank. Prior to joining Citi, she worked as a mergers and acquisitions analyst at Goldman Sachs in London and was a Partner at McKinsey & Company.

Mark Mason Chief Financial Officer

Mark Mason is the Chief Financial Officer of Citigroup, a position he has held since February 2019. He is responsible for the financial management of the company, overseeing Strategy and M&A, Treasury, and Controllers. Mason joined Citigroup in 2001 and has held numerous executive positions within the firm, including Chief Financial Officer of Citi's Institutional Clients Group, Chief Executive Officer of Citi Private Bank, Chief Executive Officer of Citi Holdings, and CFO and Head of Strategy and M&A for Citi's Global Wealth Management Division. Before his tenure at Citi, Mason was Director of Strategy and Business Development at Lucent Technologies, a strategy consultant with Marakon Associates, and had investment banking experience with Goldman Sachs & Co. Mason earned a Bachelor of Business Administration in finance from Howard University and an MBA from Harvard Business School.

Anand Selvakesari Chief Operating Officer

Anand Selvakesari is the Chief Operating Officer of Citigroup, a role he took on in March 2023. He is also head of consumer banking operations and is tasked with overseeing the group's ongoing transformation program. Selvakesari began his career with Citi India in 1991 and has over 30 years of experience across Consumer Banking, Wealth Management, and Commercial Banking, all with Citi and across multiple global markets. His previous roles include CEO of Global Consumer Bank (responsible for consumer banking businesses across 19 markets globally), Head of U.S. Consumer Bank, Head of Consumer Banking for Asia Pacific, and Head of Consumer Banking in China.

Viswas Raghavan Head of Banking and Executive Vice Chair

Viswas Raghavan serves as the Head of Banking and Executive Vice Chair at Citigroup. He is a member of the Executive Management Team.

Andrew Morton Head of Markets

Andrew Morton is the Head of Markets at Citigroup. He is part of Citigroup's Executive Management Team.

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Key Risks to Citigroup (C)

  1. Regulatory Scrutiny, Risk Management, and Internal Controls: Citigroup faces significant ongoing challenges and regulatory scrutiny regarding its enterprise-wide risk management, compliance, internal controls, and data quality management. The company has been operating under consent orders from the Federal Reserve Board and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency since 2020, which mandate substantial improvements in these areas. Failure to fully remediate these deficiencies has resulted in financial penalties and could continue to impact its ability to return capital to shareholders. The company's own management has acknowledged insufficient progress in certain aspects, particularly data quality and regulatory reporting, which led to further regulatory actions in July 2024.
  2. Credit Risk: As a global financial institution, Citigroup is inherently exposed to significant credit risk arising from its extensive consumer, corporate, and public sector loan portfolios across various countries and jurisdictions. Unexpected or increased losses from these credit exposures, particularly in the event of an economic downturn or normalization of credit losses to pre-pandemic levels in segments like its cards business, could materially impact its financial results.
  3. Cybersecurity Risk: Citigroup is continuously exposed to cybersecurity risks, which encompass the threat of cyberattacks, data breaches, or failures in protecting its vital business information assets and operations. Given the evolving threat landscape, increasing sophistication of cyber threats, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, such incidents could lead to significant financial losses and reputational damage for the company and its clients.

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The following are clear emerging threats for Citigroup:

  • The increasing market penetration and adoption of Fintech companies and Neobanks. These agile, digitally native financial service providers offer lower fees, superior user experiences, and tailored products (e.g., mobile-first banking, advanced budgeting tools, peer-to-peer payments) that directly compete with Citigroup's Global Consumer Banking segment, particularly for deposits, consumer lending, and payment services, eroding market share among younger and digitally-savvy demographics.
  • The expansion of Big Tech companies into financial services. Giants like Apple, Google, and Amazon are leveraging their vast customer bases, robust ecosystems, and extensive data to offer financial products and services (e.g., credit cards, payment solutions, lending to small businesses). While often partnering with traditional banks, these tech companies typically own the customer interface and data, positioning themselves as the primary financial relationship and potentially relegating traditional banks like Citigroup to back-end infrastructure providers.
  • The rise of Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and digital assets. The development and increasing institutional adoption of blockchain-based financial systems, cryptocurrencies, and stablecoins present an emerging long-term threat. DeFi platforms enable peer-to-peer lending, borrowing, trading, and asset management without traditional intermediaries, potentially disintermediating Citigroup's core banking, capital markets, and treasury services, especially for cross-border transactions and wholesale finance, as regulatory frameworks evolve and the technology matures.

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Citigroup operates across several main product and service areas, each addressing significant global and regional markets.

Addressable Markets for Citigroup's Main Products and Services:

  • Retail Banking / Personal Banking: The global retail banking market size was estimated at USD 2,039.25 billion in 2024. It is projected to reach USD 3,373.43 billion by 2033, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.8% from 2025 to 2033.
  • Credit Cards: The global credit card payment market size was valued at USD 690.6 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 1,316.4 billion by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 6.66% during 2025-2033. North America currently dominates this market, holding a significant market share of over 43.7% in 2024.
  • Wealth Management: The global wealth management market reached a value of approximately USD 1.8 trillion in 2023. It is expected to grow to USD 2.5 trillion by 2028 and further to USD 3.5 trillion by 2033. North America held the highest market share in terms of revenue for wealth management in 2020.
  • Investment Banking (including Corporate and Investment Banking): The global investment banking and trading services market size accounted for USD 397.11 billion in 2024. This market is predicted to increase to approximately USD 765.98 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 6.79% from 2025 to 2034. North America dominated the global investment banking and trading services market with the largest share in 2024.
  • Treasury and Trade Solutions (TTS): null

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Citigroup (symbol: C) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies across its core businesses:

  1. Growth in Services Sector: Citigroup anticipates continued revenue expansion in its Services sector, particularly within Treasury and Trade Solutions (TTS) and Securities Services. This growth is expected to be fueled by building on established leadership in cross-border payments, improving client experience, offering integrated solutions, and increasing average deposits and transaction volumes. The Services business has consistently delivered strong performance and gained market share.
  2. Scaling Wealth Management: The company is focused on expanding its Wealth Management business globally. This includes strategic initiatives such as hiring client advisors, enhancing the client and advisor experience, and driving record net new investment assets. Citigroup's private bank and wealth management revenues saw double-digit growth in the first nine months of 2025.
  3. Targeted Share Gains in Banking and Markets: Citigroup aims for targeted share gains in its Banking and Markets segments. In Banking, this involves investing in talent in key growth areas and providing seamless client experiences to increase market share in M&A, ECM, and DCM. For Markets, the focus is on capital productivity, digital solutions, and achieving share gains in Fixed Income and Equities, capitalizing on strong franchise performance and increased dealmaking and trading activity.
  4. Growth in U.S. Personal Banking (USPB): Revenue growth in U.S. Personal Banking is projected, driven by the strong performance of its cards portfolio, increased customer engagement, a rise in interest-earning balances, and fee growth. Citigroup is also maximizing the value of its retail bank through investments in digital capabilities.
  5. Strategic Investments in Technology and Digital Capabilities: Citigroup is making significant investments in technology, digital assets, and artificial intelligence to drive innovation and enhance capabilities across its franchise. These investments are crucial for improving client experience, operational efficiency, and supporting growth across all business segments, contributing to an improved returns profile.

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Share Repurchases

  • Citigroup authorized a new multi-year $20 billion share repurchase program in January 2025, with plans to buy back $1.5 billion in shares in Q1 2025.
  • The company conducted approximately $1.999 billion in share buybacks in the quarter ending September 30, 2025, and $2.474 billion in 2024.
  • In 2023, Citigroup's annual share buybacks totaled $1.977 billion, following $3.25 billion in 2022.

Share Issuance

  • Citigroup's shares outstanding have generally declined over the past few years, with a 4% decline year-over-year to 1.863 billion for the quarter ending September 30, 2025.
  • Shares outstanding decreased by 0.8% in 2024 to 1.94 billion and by 0.43% in 2023 to 1.956 billion.

Outbound Investments

  • Citigroup announced an innovative $25 billion private credit partnership with Apollo in 2024.
  • The company continues to make investments in its technology and client experience, particularly within its Services business, to deepen client relationships.
  • Citi is focusing on high-growth sectors like technology, healthcare, and leverage finance, and aims to capitalize on a favorable market environment in 2025, especially in M&A and debt and equity underwriting.

Capital Expenditures

  • Citigroup's capital expenditures for the quarter ending June 30, 2025, were $1.8 billion.
  • The company has been investing heavily in its infrastructure as part of an enterprise-wide transformation, enhancing governance, overhauling risk management structures, and automating processes.
  • These investments also focus on data governance and quality to leverage the vast amounts of data the bank holds.

Interactive Breakdown

Citigroup Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleDate
0DASHBOARDS 
1C Stock Surges 9.2% In A 6-day Spree On Analyst Upgrades And Strategic Wins12/25/2025
2C Stock Surges 7.3% With A 5-day Winning Spree On JPMorgan Upgrade To $12412/24/2025
310-Day Rally Sends Citigroup Stock Up 9.9%12/16/2025
4Citigroup Stock 9-Day Winning Spree: Stock Climbs 8.9%12/13/2025
5Would You Still Hold Citigroup Stock If It Fell 30%?10/17/2025
6Day 8 of Gains Streak for Citigroup Stock with 6.5% Return (vs. 50% YTD) [9/22/2025]09/23/2025
7C Dip Buy Analysis07/10/2025
8Day 11 of Gains Streak for Citigroup Stock with 13% Return (vs. 26% YTD) [7/7/2025]07/08/2025
9Day 9 of Gains Streak for Citigroup Stock with 12% Return (vs. 24% YTD) [7/1/2025]07/02/2025
10ARTICLES 
11How Will Citigroup Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?01/13/2026
12C Stock Surges 9.2% With A 6-day Winning Spree On Analyst Upgrades12/25/2025
13Citigroup Stock Rockets 7.3% With 5-Day Winning Streak12/24/2025
14S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week High12/19/2025
15Large Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High12/19/2025
Title
0DASHBOARDS
1C Stock Surges 9.2% In A 6-day Spree On Analyst Upgrades And Strategic Wins
2C Stock Surges 7.3% With A 5-day Winning Spree On JPMorgan Upgrade To $124
310-Day Rally Sends Citigroup Stock Up 9.9%
4Citigroup Stock 9-Day Winning Spree: Stock Climbs 8.9%
5Would You Still Hold Citigroup Stock If It Fell 30%?
6Day 8 of Gains Streak for Citigroup Stock with 6.5% Return (vs. 50% YTD) [9/22/2025]
7C Dip Buy Analysis
8Day 11 of Gains Streak for Citigroup Stock with 13% Return (vs. 26% YTD) [7/7/2025]
9Day 9 of Gains Streak for Citigroup Stock with 12% Return (vs. 24% YTD) [7/1/2025]
10ARTICLES
11How Will Citigroup Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
12C Stock Surges 9.2% With A 6-day Winning Spree On Analyst Upgrades
13Citigroup Stock Rockets 7.3% With 5-Day Winning Streak
14S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week High
15Large Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to C.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
FDS_1302026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield01302026FDSFactSet Research SystemsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		-18.8%-18.8%-25.3%
PFSI_1302026_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy01302026PFSIPennyMac Financial ServicesDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin		-6.9%-6.9%-9.3%
ALLY_1302026_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V201302026ALLYAlly FinancialInsiderInsider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider Buying
Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap		-1.9%-1.9%-5.5%
FIS_1232026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield01232026FISFidelity National Information ServicesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		-18.9%-18.9%-22.6%
MORN_1022026_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy01022026MORNMorningstarDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin		-18.1%-18.1%-26.8%

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Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CJPMBACWFCMSGSMedian
NameCitigroupJPMorgan.Bank of .Wells Fa.Morgan S.Goldman . 
Mkt Price116.19306.1352.3086.30177.49929.00146.84
Mkt Cap211.5837.4390.5268.7278.8287.6283.2
Rev LTM85,244182,435107,26483,44664,24758,69884,345
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM-75,968-147,78261,472-19,001-6,74715,769-12,874
FCF 3Y Avg-64,799-58,94034,2448,131-23,827-31,511-27,669
CFO LTM-69,391-147,78261,472-19,001-3,67917,888-11,340
CFO 3Y Avg-58,153-58,94034,2448,131-20,550-29,280-24,915

Growth & Margins

CJPMBACWFCMSGSMedian
NameCitigroupJPMorgan.Bank of .Wells Fa.Morgan S.Goldman . 
Rev Chg LTM8.4%7.7%8.9%1.4%17.6%15.2%8.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg5.0%12.8%5.2%4.0%7.6%6.4%5.8%
Rev Chg Q9.6%7.0%10.8%4.5%19.1%19.6%10.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.3%1.7%2.6%1.1%4.5%4.4%2.5%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM-81.4%-81.0%57.3%-22.8%-5.7%30.5%-14.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-72.0%-32.5%32.7%9.9%-38.8%-60.4%-35.6%
FCF/Rev LTM-89.1%-81.0%57.3%-22.8%-10.5%26.9%-16.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-80.3%-32.5%32.7%9.9%-44.6%-64.7%-38.6%

Valuation

CJPMBACWFCMSGSMedian
NameCitigroupJPMorgan.Bank of .Wells Fa.Morgan S.Goldman . 
Mkt Cap211.5837.4390.5268.7278.8287.6283.2
P/S2.54.63.63.24.34.94.0
P/EBIT-------
P/E14.414.713.212.617.217.314.5
P/CFO-3.0-5.76.4-14.1-75.816.1-4.4
Total Yield6.9%6.8%7.6%10.0%5.8%5.8%6.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%2.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-46.9%-6.8%10.1%5.8%-13.4%-19.3%-10.1%
D/E1.80.60.90.71.31.31.1
Net D/E-1.0-0.4-0.7-0.70.90.6-0.6

Returns

CJPMBACWFCMSGSMedian
NameCitigroupJPMorgan.Bank of .Wells Fa.Morgan S.Goldman . 
1M Rtn1.2%1.9%0.2%-2.2%-2.8%-0.1%0.1%
3M Rtn13.9%-0.0%-0.8%1.4%6.3%13.8%3.8%
6M Rtn21.4%2.6%4.7%6.3%19.6%24.9%13.0%
12M Rtn50.8%20.7%21.8%15.3%39.1%53.4%30.4%
3Y Rtn155.6%131.2%65.4%99.2%102.6%174.0%116.9%
1M Excs Rtn2.2%2.9%1.2%-1.2%-1.8%0.9%1.1%
3M Excs Rtn14.1%0.2%-1.8%-0.6%6.6%15.0%3.4%
6M Excs Rtn15.9%-3.4%-1.6%0.1%13.7%18.5%6.9%
12M Excs Rtn36.5%5.4%5.8%0.0%24.6%38.1%15.2%
3Y Excs Rtn86.0%62.6%-8.9%28.7%27.9%104.5%45.6%

Comparison Analyses

null

FDIC Bank Data

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Markets1,007,000    
Services586,000    
United States Personal Banking (USPB)242,000    
Wealth232,000    
All Other196,000    
Banking149,000    
Corporate/Other 96,00089,00096,00097,000
Institutional Clients Group (ICG) 1,730,0001,613,0001,730,0001,447,000
Legacy Franchises 97,000125,000  
Personal Banking and Wealth Management (PBWM) 494,000464,000  
Global Consumer Banking   434,000407,000
Total2,412,0002,417,0002,291,0002,260,0001,951,000


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$116.19 
Market Cap ($ Bil)211.5 
First Trading Date01/03/1977 
Distance from 52W High-6.1% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$116.12$97.98
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA0.1%18.6%
 3M1YR
Volatility34.2%33.1%
Downside Capture197.26131.27
Upside Capture262.84152.20
Correlation (SPY)68.1%75.3%
C Betas & Captures as of 1/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta2.131.841.411.341.241.19
Up Beta1.951.590.591.480.971.07
Down Beta2.241.401.201.081.501.36
Up Capture170%284%230%173%184%192%
Bmk +ve Days11223471142430
Stock +ve Days10263772142404
Down Capture249%163%138%123%113%103%
Bmk -ve Days9192754109321
Stock -ve Days10152453108341

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with C
C52.8%33.0%1.32-
Sector ETF (XLF)4.1%19.7%0.0983.7%
Equity (SPY)17.1%19.4%0.6975.0%
Gold (GLD)79.3%25.7%2.250.8%
Commodities (DBC)10.9%16.8%0.4522.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)6.6%16.6%0.2149.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-23.4%45.1%-0.4629.5%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with C
C16.1%28.8%0.54-
Sector ETF (XLF)12.0%18.8%0.5180.6%
Equity (SPY)13.6%17.0%0.6363.4%
Gold (GLD)23.6%17.2%1.124.4%
Commodities (DBC)10.8%19.0%0.4522.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.3%18.8%0.1945.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)4.0%57.0%0.2924.2%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with C
C14.9%33.2%0.50-
Sector ETF (XLF)14.0%22.2%0.5887.7%
Equity (SPY)15.5%17.9%0.7470.7%
Gold (GLD)15.1%15.6%0.81-5.2%
Commodities (DBC)8.5%17.6%0.4031.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)6.6%20.7%0.2853.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)66.3%66.8%1.0618.5%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date2132026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity28.0 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 13120268.6%
Average Daily Volume14.8 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.9 days
Basic Shares Quantity1,820.3 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares1.5%

Returns Analyses

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
1/14/2026-3.3%-2.1%-3.9%
10/14/20253.9%3.3%5.5%
7/15/20253.7%5.9%10.1%
4/15/20251.8%2.1%20.0%
1/15/20256.5%11.1%12.5%
10/15/2024-5.1%-6.3%5.5%
4/12/2024-1.7%-3.9%5.6%
1/10/2024-1.8%-3.6%2.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive10914
# Negative12138
Median Positive2.7%4.4%5.5%
Median Negative-3.6%-3.9%-4.0%
Max Positive13.2%19.1%24.4%
Max Negative-6.9%-11.1%-9.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202511/06/202510-Q
06/30/202508/06/202510-Q
03/31/202505/08/202510-Q
12/31/202402/21/202510-K
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q
06/30/202408/02/202410-Q
03/31/202405/03/202410-Q
12/31/202302/23/202410-K
09/30/202311/03/202310-Q
06/30/202308/04/202310-Q
03/31/202305/05/202310-Q
12/31/202202/27/202310-K
09/30/202211/04/202210-Q
06/30/202208/04/202210-Q
03/31/202205/09/202210-Q
12/31/202102/28/202210-K

Insider Activity

Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value		Value of
Held Shares		Form
1Henry, Peter B DirectSell718202590.403,000271,209193,500Form
2Dugan, John Cunningham DirectSell502202568.264,417301,493890,645Form
3Wechter, SaraChief Human Resources OfficerDirectSell218202581.0115,1251,225,2848,893,366Form
4Skyler, EdwardHd of Ent Svc & Public AffairsDirectSell218202582.4135,5452,929,26316,871,512Form
5Selvakesari, AnandChief Operating OfficerDirectSell218202581.1030,0002,433,14718,587,595Form

C Trade Sentinel

Stock Conviction

AVOID (Score 1-2)

CONVICTION RATIONALE

Despite a seemingly balanced raw skew, the probability-adjusted skew is unattractive at 0.79x. The high probability (60%) assigned to the downside scenario, driven by the binary and severe nature of the regulatory execution risk, outweighs the potential upside. The investment case requires taking on significant, hard-to-predict regulatory risk for a reward that is not sufficiently asymmetric. Until the consent orders are demonstrably resolved, the risk/reward is unfavorable.

STOCK ARCHETYPE
Turnaround / Deep Value

The investment thesis hinges on management's ability to execute a complex, multi-year restructuring to close a significant profitability and efficiency gap with peers. The focus is on strategic execution and balance sheet simplification, which are the core tenets of a Turnaround archetype.

INVESTMENT THESIS
RoTCE Expansion to 10-11% by 2026 via Services & Wealth Management Mix Shift

The primary driver for shareholder return is the successful execution of Citigroup's strategic pivot towards its capital-light, high-margin Services (TTS, Securities Services) and Wealth Management businesses. These segments are growing faster than the bank's consolidated average and generate superior returns, driving a favorable mix shift that should expand the bank's overall Return on Tangible Common Equity (RoTCE) into the management-guided 10-11% range.

Mechanism: As higher-margin businesses like TTS (reported RoTCE over 28%) and Wealth become a larger percentage of total revenue, they will lift the bank's consolidated profitability. This, combined with aggressive share buybacks ($13.25B in 2025) and cost reductions (targeting a ~60% efficiency ratio), will drive EPS growth even with only modest top-line expansion.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Services division revenues grew 15% in the latest quarter, with a full-year RoTCE over 28%.
  • Wealth Management division reported 14% year-over-year revenue growth in Q4 2025.
  • Management has guided to a 10-11% overall RoTCE target for FY2026, a significant step-up from the 8.8% adjusted RoTCE in 2025.
  • The bank returned over $17.5 billion to shareholders in 2025, primarily through buybacks, which will continue to be a key driver of per-share value.
PRIMARY RISK
Failure to Remediate Regulatory Consent Orders in 2026, Triggering Further Penalties

The most significant risk to the turnaround thesis is Citigroup's failure to satisfy the 2020 consent orders from the Federal Reserve and OCC regarding deficiencies in risk management and internal controls. This is a multi-year, high-impact issue that has already resulted in significant fines. A failure to show material progress and achieve resolution in 2026 would severely damage management's credibility, likely incur further financial penalties, and could lead to business restrictions, derailing the path to improved returns.

Mechanism: Regulatory drag directly impacts the bottom line through fines and increased compliance spending, preventing the company from achieving its ~60% efficiency ratio target. More importantly, it creates an overhang on the stock, preventing a valuation re-rating as investors cannot trust the operational stability of the institution, regardless of progress in specific business segments.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Citigroup is under ongoing consent orders from the Fed/OCC from 2020.
  • The bank was fined an additional $135.6 million in July 2024 for 'insufficient progress', demonstrating the continued material risk.
  • As of February 2026, executives are only 'hopeful' for a resolution this year, indicating the outcome is not yet certain.
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Threshold Rationale
Efficiency RatioTrending towards ~60% for FY2026This is the most direct measure of management's success in simplifying the bank and realizing cost savings. Failure to hit this target invalidates the margin expansion thesis.
Return on Tangible Common Equity (RoTCE)Achieving 10-11% for FY2026The ultimate barometer of the turnaround's success. This metric synthesizes profitability, efficiency, and capital management into the single figure management has staked its credibility on.
Services and Wealth Management Revenue GrowthSustained double-digit YoY growthThese are the designated 'growth engines'. Any significant deceleration here would indicate the core strategy of shifting the business mix is failing, making the overall RoTCE targets much harder to achieve.
Core Investment Debate

The Transformation vs. Turnaround Trap

BULL VIEW

Management's 'Simplification' strategy will achieve its ~60% efficiency and 10-11% RoTCE targets, unlocking significant value via margin expansion and buybacks.

CORE TENSION

Can a complex restructuring close the profitability gap with peers, or will execution risk and regulatory drag perennially impair returns?

PREVAILING SENTIMENT
BEARISH

The high probability assigned to 'Execution Risk in Remediation of Regulatory Consent Orders' and the recent Q4 2025 revenue miss give credence to the bear case.

BEAR VIEW

Ongoing regulatory consent orders, legacy asset divestiture risk (Banamex), and potential credit deterioration will prevent management from hitting its targets.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
Mid-April 2026
Q1 2026 Earnings & Guidance Update
Watch: Progress on Efficiency Ratio (~60% target) and Net Charge-Offs in U.S. Personal Banking (guidance: 5.75%-6.25%).
H1 2026
Regulatory Update on Consent Orders
Watch: Any announcement from the Federal Reserve or OCC regarding lifting the 2020 consent orders.
May 7, 2026
Investor Day / Banamex IPO Update
Watch: Clarity on the Banamex IPO timeline and updated costs associated with winding down legacy franchises.
H1 2026
Finalization of Basel III Endgame Rules
Watch: The final rule's stringency on risk-weighted assets (RWA) and operational risk capital charges.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
Sep 9, 2025
Barclays Global Financial Services Conference
Details: Management presented at a major industry conference, reiterating the firm's commitment to its transformation strategy and medium-term financial targets.
Modest 1.5% gain
$94.80 -> $96.26
Oct 14, 2025
Q3 2025 Earnings Release
Details: The bank reported strong quarterly results, with positive momentum noted in the core Services and Wealth Management divisions, reinforcing the strategic pivot.
Rose significantly by 3.9%
$95.03 -> $98.73
Nov 12, 2025
Strategic Update on Simplification
Details: Management provided further details on its restructuring, including plans to cut 20,000 jobs by 2026, which investors viewed as a positive step towards improving efficiency.
Rose significantly by 2.1%
$100.23 -> $102.33
Dec 24, 2025
Stock Reaches 52-Week High
Details: Shares hit a new 52-week high, continuing a strong year-end rally fueled by optimism over the bank's strategic simplification and a favorable market backdrop.
Modest 1.8% gain
$118.78 -> $120.92
Jan 14, 2026
Q4 2025 Earnings Release
Details: Reported adjusted EPS of $1.81, beating estimates of $1.70, but revenue of $19.9 billion fell short of the anticipated $20.55 billion.
Rose significantly by 4.5%
$111.82 -> $116.85
Feb 6, 2026
Report on Consent Order Progress
Details: A media report indicated executives are increasingly confident they will complete the compliance work on legacy consent orders within the year.
Surged +6.0%
$115.74 -> $122.69
Risk Management
Position Sizing

1% - 3%

CONSERVATIVE

Stock is trading in a Moderate Volatility regime. However, the Bearish sentiment, driven by significant execution risk and a contested moat, reduces conviction. Therefore, we cap exposure to Conservative (1-3%) until visibility on the turnaround improves.

Diversification Alternatives
JPM
INDUSTRY

Avoids Citigroup's execution risk by already operating at a best-in-class level. Offers superior profitability (RoTCE), a higher efficiency ratio, and a more robust 'fortress balance sheet'.

Core Thesis: The core thesis is based on being the undisputed market leader across most segments, benefiting from scale, diversification, and superior operational execution.
BAC
INDUSTRY

Provides a cleaner, more direct investment thesis. Its massive, low-cost US consumer deposit base makes it a primary beneficiary of a high interest rate environment, avoiding C's complex turnaround narrative.

Core Thesis: The thesis is built on its dominant US retail and commercial franchise and its premier wealth management business (Merrill), making it highly levered to the US economy and interest rates.
How Is The Market Pricing C?

Citigroup is transitioning from a complex, underperforming financial supermarket to a simplified, higher-return bank focused on five core, capital-light businesses (Services, Markets, Banking, Wealth, US Personal Banking).

Filter all news through the lens of the strategic simplification and its impact on Return on Tangible Common Equity (RoTCE).

What will confirm the thesis

News of completed divestitures of non-core assets (e.g., Banamex IPO finalization); segment revenue growth in Services or Wealth; improvement in the firm-wide efficiency ratio; and any progress on resolving regulatory consent orders.

What will damage the thesis

Delays in planned divestitures; significant increases in operating expenses not tied to revenue growth; new regulatory sanctions or consent orders; and deterioration in credit quality beyond guided expectations.

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Broad market commentary on the banking sector; minor fluctuations in quarterly trading revenues; and short-term interest rate speculation (unless it significantly alters forward guidance).

Repricing Catalyst

The market re-rating is driven by management's execution of a strategic overhaul, exiting 14 international consumer markets to focus on less capital-intensive, high-return businesses like Treasury and Trade Solutions (TTS) and Wealth Management. The key catalyst is achieving the medium-term target of 11-12% RoTCE by 2026, which would narrow the valuation gap to its tangible book value.

What C Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on Fourth Quarter 2025 Results Press Release, Jan 14, 2026
Services (Treasury & Securities)
$23.8B TTM (30% of Total) · % Margin
What It Is

Treasury and Trade Solutions (TTS) for payments, liquidity management; Securities Services for asset custody and administration.

Who Pays & How

Multinational corporations and financial institutions pay fees and maintain large deposit balances for access to Citi's global network, which processes ~$5 trillion in payments daily, creating high switching costs.

Fee-based income and Net Interest Income (NII) on client deposits.
Competition
JPMorgan Chase - Treasury and Securities Services
JPMorgan has a leading market share in investment banking fees which can create cross-selling opportunities.
Citigroup's extensive 180-country network provides a unique competitive advantage for multinational clients with complex cross-border cash management needs.
Markets (Trading)
$18.2B TTM (23% of Total) · % Margin
What It Is

Fixed Income, Currencies, and Commodities (FICC) and Equities sales and trading services.

Who Pays & How

Institutional investors (hedge funds, asset managers) pay spreads and commissions to execute large trades and manage risk.

Trading revenue from bid-ask spreads and commissions.
Competition
JPMorgan Chase - Markets & Securities Services
JPMorgan is the largest investment bank by revenue, giving it significant scale.
Maintains a top 3 position in overall markets revenue, with a particularly strong franchise in fixed income. Equities business is gaining share with prime balances up over 50%.
US Personal Banking (Cards & Retail)
$21.2B TTM (27% of Total) · % Margin
What It Is

Branded credit cards (e.g., Citi Double Cash), co-branded cards (e.g., with American Airlines), and retail banking services.

Who Pays & How

US consumers pay interest on revolving credit card balances and merchants pay interchange fees. Retail banking customers provide low-cost deposits.

Net Interest Income on credit card loans and other consumer loans, plus fee income from cards and retail bank accounts.
Competition
JPMorgan Chase (Chase brand)
JPMorgan Chase is the largest US bank by assets and has a dominant retail banking and credit card franchise.
One of the largest global issuers of credit cards with strong co-brand partnerships.
Banking (Investment & Corporate)
$8.8B TTM (11% of Total) · % Margin
What It Is

Investment banking advisory (M&A) and underwriting (debt & equity); corporate lending.

Who Pays & How

Corporations and financial sponsors pay fees for strategic advice (e.g., Boeing, Pfizer, Blackstone) and for raising capital.

Fee-based for advisory and underwriting; Net Interest Income on corporate loans.
Competition
Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley
Pure-play investment banks with strong advisory-focused brands.
Leverages its massive balance sheet and global corporate relationships to offer integrated lending and advisory services, a key differentiator.
Wealth Management
$7.6B TTM (9% of Total) · % Margin
What It Is

Private banking, investment advisory, and brokerage services for high-net-worth individuals.

Who Pays & How

Wealthy individuals and families pay fees based on assets under management (AUM) for investment management and financial planning.

Fee-based on AUM and commissions on transactions.
Competition
Morgan Stanley, UBS
Have larger, more established global wealth management franchises.
Leverages its global reach and institutional expertise to serve ultra-high-net-worth clients with complex international needs.
C Evolution: Price Return by Era
1812–1998 · Building a Global Bank
From City Bank of New York to Global Pioneer
Founded as the City Bank of New York, the institution grew through the 19th and 20th centuries, becoming a national bank in 1865. A key inflection point was its early and aggressive international expansion, establishing a foreign department in 1897. Under leaders like Walter Wriston, it pioneered innovations like the ATM and became a dominant force in global consumer and corporate banking, eventually rebranding as Citicorp.
1998–2008 · The Financial Supermarket Era
Merger with Travelers and the 'Too Big to Fail' Apex Significant decline during 2007-2009 crisis
The 1998 merger of Citicorp and Travelers Group created Citigroup, the world's largest financial services organization, aiming to be a one-stop-shop for banking, insurance, and investments. This era was defined by massive scale and complexity. The model ultimately proved unwieldy and exposed the firm to immense risk, culminating in a near-collapse during the 2008 financial crisis, which required multiple government bailouts to survive.
2009–2020 · Post-Crisis Restructuring
Decade of Divestitures and Underperformance Stagnation from 2018-2022
In the wake of the crisis, Citigroup spent over a decade shrinking and de-risking. It created Citi Holdings in 2009 to house non-core assets for divestiture, including the sale of its Smith Barney brokerage. Despite returning to profitability, the bank struggled with persistent strategic challenges, regulatory issues, and an inability to generate returns on par with its peers, leading to a prolonged period of stock underperformance.
2021–Present · The Great Simplification
Jane Fraser's Strategic Overhaul +42% (2025)
Under CEO Jane Fraser, Citigroup initiated a radical strategic pivot, exiting 14 consumer banking markets to focus on five core, higher-return businesses. This era is defined by a 'maniacal focus' on simplification, resolving long-standing regulatory orders, and driving the firm's RoTCE toward a medium-term target of 11-12%. The success of this transformation is the central debate for the stock's re-rating.
Market Is In Wait-and-See Mode
Price structure is strongly bullish. The regime, trend, and proximity to highs all point towards intact institutional trend. Relative to SPY: Strong 63D outperformance but 'relative strength' momentum is fading, indicating that money rotation may be maturing. Volume and momentum are mixed. There is no clear institutional footprint in either direction. Earnings history is clearly negative. The market punished the print and the drift confirms distribution. Thesis is under pressure. NOTE: Structure and earnings history are contradicting each other. The price trend says one thing, and the market reaction to catalysts says another. Treat this with caution and weigh the most recent earnings event heavily.
① Structure
+4
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
0
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
-2
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
2 / 12
1 Price Structure & Trend Trending Up · - ▾
2 Momentum Decelerating ▾
3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Mild Outperformance ▾
4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Mild Accumulation ▾
5 Volatility Normal ▾
6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Rising ▾
7 Earnings Reaction History Inconsistent ▾
8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars ▾
Price Intelligence is derived from price-volume pattern analysis only. All moving averages are simple (SMA). Relative strength benchmarked against SPY.

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