Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $26.01 | Market Cap: $579.7 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $26.01Market Cap: $579.7 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.4% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -109%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -143% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.7% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail. | Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 23% | |
| Key risksCBRL key risks include [1] a significant decline in customer traffic as its traditional brand misaligns with evolving consumer preferences and [2] a substantial debt load that limits financial flexibility and poses refinancing risks. |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.4% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -109%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -143% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.7% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 23% |
| Key risksCBRL key risks include [1] a significant decline in customer traffic as its traditional brand misaligns with evolving consumer preferences and [2] a substantial debt load that limits financial flexibility and poses refinancing risks. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CBRL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) stock moved by -56.3% during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 17, 2025:
1. Poor First Quarter Fiscal 2026 Financial Results: Cracker Barrel reported total revenue of $797.19 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, missing analyst estimates of $802.22 million. The company also posted an adjusted loss of $0.74 per share, which was worse than the analyst consensus for a loss of $0.68 per share. Overall, total revenue decreased by 5.7% year-over-year.
2. Significant Downward Revision of Fiscal 2026 Guidance: Following the disappointing quarterly results, Cracker Barrel dramatically lowered its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance from an initial range of $3.35 billion to $3.45 billion to an updated range of $3.2 billion to $3.3 billion. Furthermore, the adjusted EBITDA guidance was severely cut from $150 million-$190 million to $70 million-$110 million.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CBRL Return | -11% | -1% | -23% | -14% | -28% | -49% | -78% |
| Peers Return | � | � | -10% | 32% | 61% | 1% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CBRL Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 42% | 38% | 62% | 65% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CBRL Max Drawdown | -63% | -8% | -34% | -31% | -51% | -50% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -29% | -4% | -14% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DRI, TXRH, EAT, CAKE, FWRG. See CBRL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CBRL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -64.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 181.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -66.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 197.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 357 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -17.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -76.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 332.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 507 days | 1480 days |
Compare to TGT, DRI, BLMN, DIN, DENN
In The Past
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store's stock fell -64.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/12/2021. A -64.5% loss requires a 181.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CBRL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.2% | 0.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.4% | 15.4% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.7% | 16.7% | -1.6% |
| 09302023 | CBRL | Cracker Barrel Old Country Store | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.2% | -26.5% | -42.9% |
| 03312020 | CBRL | Cracker Barrel Old Country Store | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 40.4% | 113.2% | -16.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.2% | 0.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.4% | 15.4% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.7% | 16.7% | -1.6% |
| 09302023 | CBRL | Cracker Barrel Old Country Store | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.2% | -26.5% | -42.9% |
| 03312020 | CBRL | Cracker Barrel Old Country Store | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 40.4% | 113.2% | -16.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 97.48 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.4 |
| Rev LTM | 4,653 |
| Op Inc LTM | 383 |
| FCF LTM | 249 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 183 |
| CFO LTM | 529 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 372 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.4 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/EBIT | 18.2 |
| P/E | 24.2 |
| P/CFO | 7.8 |
| Total Yield | 5.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -16.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -6.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 55.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -29.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -17.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -20.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 12/9/2025 | 3.5% | ||
| 9/17/2025 | -7.6% | -11.7% | -18.8% |
| 6/5/2025 | -7.2% | -3.7% | 14.9% |
| 3/6/2025 | 7.6% | 8.7% | -10.4% |
| 12/4/2024 | -1.8% | -6.6% | 0.4% |
| 9/19/2024 | -1.1% | 4.9% | 19.9% |
| 5/16/2024 | -14.5% | -20.3% | -21.5% |
| 2/27/2024 | -3.1% | -6.6% | -4.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 4 | 7 | 8 |
| # Negative | 18 | 15 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 2.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% |
| Median Negative | -3.4% | -6.6% | -10.4% |
| Max Positive | 7.6% | 23.4% | 19.9% |
| Max Negative | -14.5% | -20.3% | -42.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | 12092025 | 10-Q 10/31/2025 |
| 7312025 | 9262025 | 10-K 8/1/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6052025 | 10-Q 5/2/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3062025 | 10-Q 1/31/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12042024 | 10-Q 11/1/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9272024 | 10-K 8/2/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5302024 | 10-Q 4/26/2024 |
| 1312024 | 2272024 | 10-Q 1/26/2024 |
| 10312023 | 11302023 | 10-Q 10/27/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9262023 | 10-K 7/28/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6062023 | 10-Q 4/28/2023 |
| 1312023 | 2282023 | 10-Q 1/27/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12022022 | 10-Q 10/28/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9272022 | 10-K 7/29/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6072022 | 10-Q 4/29/2022 |
| 1312022 | 2242022 | 10-Q 1/28/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |