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Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $28.86 | Market Cap: $642.6 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $28.86
Market Cap: $642.6 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.1%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -109%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -144%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 84%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail.
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.9%
2   Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 21%
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.1%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -109%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -144%
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 84%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.9%
5 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 21%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CBRL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Declining Comparable Store Sales and Guest Traffic

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) experienced declining comparable store sales, both in restaurant and retail, due to reduced guest traffic and lower consumer spending. This trend, observed as early as the first quarter of fiscal 2024 (reported in November 2023), was attributed to inflationary pressures, higher interest rates, increased consumer debt, and lower savings rates, impacting consumer discretionary spending. The decline in guest traffic continued, with a 7.1% decrease in the first quarter of fiscal 2024 and a 1.5% drop in comparable store sales in the fiscal third quarter of 2024, indicating a sustained challenge to the company's revenue growth.

2. High Operating Costs and Tumbled Profits

The company faced significant pressure from high costs and expenses, which eroded its profitability. Despite implementing cost-saving initiatives, increased labor costs due to higher wages and investments in additional labor hours persistently impacted profits. In the first quarter of fiscal 2024, labor and other related expenses, as a percentage of total revenues, rose by 220 basis points to 37%, and other store operating expenses increased by 130 basis points to 24.7%. These factors contributed to a substantial 63% year-over-year decrease in earnings per share through the first three quarters of fiscal 2024, and the company reported a net loss of $9 million in its fiscal third quarter of 2024.

3. Dividend Cut and Eroding Investor Confidence

In May 2024, Cracker Barrel significantly cut its quarterly dividend by 80%, reducing it from $1.30 per share to $0.25 per share. This drastic reduction in dividend payments was a response to tumbling profits and significantly negatively impacted investor sentiment, contributing to a 16.2% plunge in the stock during that month and likely continuing to weigh on investor confidence in the subsequent months leading into 2025.

4. Skepticism Regarding Turnaround Plan

Cracker Barrel's new CEO, Julie Masino, introduced a turnaround plan aimed at revitalizing the brand through restaurant remodels and menu updates, acknowledging that the brand had lost some relevance. However, analysts adopted a "show me" approach, indicating a need for the company to demonstrate tangible progress before investors would fully buy into the plan. Furthermore, the company's projected sales growth of only about 11% over the next three fiscal years (through fiscal 2027) was not deemed sufficiently inspiring, especially considering the substantial investment planned for store updates, leading to continued investor skepticism.

5. Negative Reaction to Logo Redesign

In August 2025, Cracker Barrel experienced a significant drop in its stock value following the release of a new logo. Marketing experts critically viewed the rebranding effort as a "fiasco," expressing concerns that it risked alienating the company's long-time customer base. This negative reception to the brand refresh led to the company losing nearly $100 million in market value shortly after the logo's release.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CBRL Return-11%-1%-23%-14%-28%-45%-77%
Peers Return-3%22%-19%13%-24%-13%-28%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CBRL Win Rate50%42%42%50%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate52%58%38%48%35%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CBRL Max Drawdown-63%-8%-34%-31%-51%-50% 
Peers Max Drawdown-66%-6%-30%-14%-35%-36% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TGT, DRI, BLMN, DIN, DENN. See CBRL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCBRLS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-64.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven181.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-66.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven197.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven357 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-17.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven20.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-76.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven332.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven507 days1480 days

Compare to TGT, DRI, BLMN, DIN, DENN


In The Past

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store's stock fell -64.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/12/2021. A -64.5% loss requires a 181.6% gain to breakeven.

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About Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)

Better Bets than Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CBRL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
CBRL_9302023_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG09302023CBRLCracker Barrel Old Country StoreDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
12.2%-26.5%-42.9%
CBRL_3312020_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG03312020CBRLCracker Barrel Old Country StoreDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
40.4%113.2%-16.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
CBRL_9302023_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG09302023CBRLCracker Barrel Old Country StoreDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
12.2%-26.5%-42.9%
CBRL_3312020_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG03312020CBRLCracker Barrel Old Country StoreDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
40.4%113.2%-16.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CBRLTGTDRIBLMNDINDENNMedian
NameCracker .Target Darden R.Bloomin .Dine Bra.Denny's  
Mkt Price28.8690.92177.326.8831.656.1930.25
Mkt Cap0.641.320.70.60.50.30.6
Rev LTM3,484105,64012,3643,9538664573,718
Op Inc LTM755,4241,46913513744136
FCF LTM602,9441,06810088294
FCF 3Y Avg753,282942111862799
CFO LTM2196,3861,76827711439248
CFO 3Y Avg2137,4701,59033911649276

Growth & Margins

CBRLTGTDRIBLMNDINDENNMedian
NameCracker .Target Darden R.Bloomin .Dine Bra.Denny's  
Rev Chg LTM0.4%-1.5%8.3%7.7%6.5%0.9%3.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg2.2%-0.7%8.2%-2.9%-2.1%1.1%0.2%
Rev Chg Q-2.9%-0.9%10.4%2.1%10.8%1.3%1.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.8%-0.2%2.4%0.5%2.5%0.3%0.4%
Op Mgn LTM2.2%5.1%11.9%3.4%15.8%9.7%7.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg2.7%5.1%11.8%5.6%19.8%11.3%8.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.0%-0.3%-0.0%-0.5%-2.0%-0.5%-0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM6.3%6.0%14.3%7.0%13.1%8.5%7.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg6.1%7.0%13.8%8.5%13.9%10.6%9.6%
FCF/Rev LTM1.7%2.8%8.6%2.5%10.1%0.5%2.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg2.2%3.1%8.1%2.8%10.3%5.8%4.4%

Valuation

CBRLTGTDRIBLMNDINDENNMedian
NameCracker .Target Darden R.Bloomin .Dine Bra.Denny's  
Mkt Cap0.641.320.70.60.50.30.6
P/S0.40.42.10.20.40.60.4
P/EBIT23.48.118.29.22.97.48.6
P/E29.311.423.1-10.610.326.617.3
P/CFO6.27.014.42.23.17.06.6
Total Yield5.1%13.3%6.9%0.1%18.5%3.8%6.0%
Dividend Yield1.7%4.6%2.6%9.6%8.8%0.0%3.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.9%5.6%4.5%9.4%18.9%6.4%6.0%
D/E0.90.40.23.64.61.51.2
Net D/E0.80.30.23.54.11.51.2

Returns

CBRLTGTDRIBLMNDINDENNMedian
NameCracker .Target Darden R.Bloomin .Dine Bra.Denny's  
1M Rtn-10.5%0.7%-0.1%1.8%30.9%50.6%1.2%
3M Rtn-46.3%-0.3%-14.2%-1.6%41.0%38.8%-0.9%
6M Rtn-49.5%-0.9%-16.8%-10.8%33.6%54.4%-5.9%
12M Rtn-47.1%-27.8%7.0%-44.1%-1.0%-2.2%-15.0%
3Y Rtn-66.9%-38.5%34.5%-62.6%-48.9%-46.5%-47.7%
1M Excs Rtn-10.5%0.7%-0.1%1.8%31.0%50.6%1.3%
3M Excs Rtn-49.7%-6.0%-20.3%-9.9%33.4%23.3%-8.0%
6M Excs Rtn-64.3%-15.7%-31.5%-25.6%18.9%39.6%-20.6%
12M Excs Rtn-60.5%-41.8%-9.9%-61.4%-18.3%-19.2%-30.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-144.1%-111.8%-39.5%-137.5%-122.2%-123.4%-122.8%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,681,186
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-12.6%
Average Daily Volume1,383,769
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.38
Basic Shares Quantity22,267,328
Short % of Basic Shares21.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
7312025926202510-K 8/1/2025
4302025605202510-Q 5/2/2025
1312025306202510-Q 1/31/2025
103120241204202410-Q 11/1/2024
7312024927202410-K 8/2/2024
4302024530202410-Q 4/26/2024
1312024227202410-Q 1/26/2024
103120231130202310-Q 10/27/2023
7312023926202310-K 7/28/2023
4302023606202310-Q 4/28/2023
1312023228202310-Q 1/27/2023
103120221202202210-Q 10/28/2022
7312022927202210-K 7/29/2022
4302022607202210-Q 4/29/2022
1312022224202210-Q 1/28/2022
103120211123202110-Q 10/29/2021