Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $28.86 | Market Cap: $642.6 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $28.86Market Cap: $642.6 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.1% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -109%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -144% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 84% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.9% | |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 21% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.1% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -109%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -144% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 84% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.9% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 21% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CBRL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Declining Comparable Store Sales and Guest Traffic
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) experienced declining comparable store sales, both in restaurant and retail, due to reduced guest traffic and lower consumer spending. This trend, observed as early as the first quarter of fiscal 2024 (reported in November 2023), was attributed to inflationary pressures, higher interest rates, increased consumer debt, and lower savings rates, impacting consumer discretionary spending. The decline in guest traffic continued, with a 7.1% decrease in the first quarter of fiscal 2024 and a 1.5% drop in comparable store sales in the fiscal third quarter of 2024, indicating a sustained challenge to the company's revenue growth.
2. High Operating Costs and Tumbled Profits
The company faced significant pressure from high costs and expenses, which eroded its profitability. Despite implementing cost-saving initiatives, increased labor costs due to higher wages and investments in additional labor hours persistently impacted profits. In the first quarter of fiscal 2024, labor and other related expenses, as a percentage of total revenues, rose by 220 basis points to 37%, and other store operating expenses increased by 130 basis points to 24.7%. These factors contributed to a substantial 63% year-over-year decrease in earnings per share through the first three quarters of fiscal 2024, and the company reported a net loss of $9 million in its fiscal third quarter of 2024.
3. Dividend Cut and Eroding Investor Confidence
In May 2024, Cracker Barrel significantly cut its quarterly dividend by 80%, reducing it from $1.30 per share to $0.25 per share. This drastic reduction in dividend payments was a response to tumbling profits and significantly negatively impacted investor sentiment, contributing to a 16.2% plunge in the stock during that month and likely continuing to weigh on investor confidence in the subsequent months leading into 2025.
4. Skepticism Regarding Turnaround Plan
Cracker Barrel's new CEO, Julie Masino, introduced a turnaround plan aimed at revitalizing the brand through restaurant remodels and menu updates, acknowledging that the brand had lost some relevance. However, analysts adopted a "show me" approach, indicating a need for the company to demonstrate tangible progress before investors would fully buy into the plan. Furthermore, the company's projected sales growth of only about 11% over the next three fiscal years (through fiscal 2027) was not deemed sufficiently inspiring, especially considering the substantial investment planned for store updates, leading to continued investor skepticism.
5. Negative Reaction to Logo Redesign
In August 2025, Cracker Barrel experienced a significant drop in its stock value following the release of a new logo. Marketing experts critically viewed the rebranding effort as a "fiasco," expressing concerns that it risked alienating the company's long-time customer base. This negative reception to the brand refresh led to the company losing nearly $100 million in market value shortly after the logo's release.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CBRL Return | -11% | -1% | -23% | -14% | -28% | -45% | -77% |
| Peers Return | -3% | 22% | -19% | 13% | -24% | -13% | -28% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CBRL Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 58% | 38% | 48% | 35% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CBRL Max Drawdown | -63% | -8% | -34% | -31% | -51% | -50% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -66% | -6% | -30% | -14% | -35% | -36% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TGT, DRI, BLMN, DIN, DENN. See CBRL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CBRL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -64.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 181.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -66.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 197.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 357 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -17.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -76.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 332.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 507 days | 1480 days |
Compare to TGT, DRI, BLMN, DIN, DENN
In The Past
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store's stock fell -64.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/12/2021. A -64.5% loss requires a 181.6% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CBRL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 09302023 | CBRL | Cracker Barrel Old Country Store | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.2% | -26.5% | -42.9% |
| 03312020 | CBRL | Cracker Barrel Old Country Store | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 40.4% | 113.2% | -16.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 09302023 | CBRL | Cracker Barrel Old Country Store | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.2% | -26.5% | -42.9% |
| 03312020 | CBRL | Cracker Barrel Old Country Store | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 40.4% | 113.2% | -16.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 30.25 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.6 |
| Rev LTM | 3,718 |
| Op Inc LTM | 136 |
| FCF LTM | 94 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 99 |
| CFO LTM | 248 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 276 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.6 |
| P/S | 0.4 |
| P/EBIT | 8.6 |
| P/E | 17.3 |
| P/CFO | 6.6 |
| Total Yield | 6.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.0% |
| D/E | 1.2 |
| Net D/E | 1.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -5.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -15.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -47.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -20.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -30.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -122.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9262025 | 10-K 8/1/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6052025 | 10-Q 5/2/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3062025 | 10-Q 1/31/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12042024 | 10-Q 11/1/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9272024 | 10-K 8/2/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5302024 | 10-Q 4/26/2024 |
| 1312024 | 2272024 | 10-Q 1/26/2024 |
| 10312023 | 11302023 | 10-Q 10/27/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9262023 | 10-K 7/28/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6062023 | 10-Q 4/28/2023 |
| 1312023 | 2282023 | 10-Q 1/27/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12022022 | 10-Q 10/28/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9272022 | 10-K 7/29/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6072022 | 10-Q 4/29/2022 |
| 1312022 | 2242022 | 10-Q 1/28/2022 |
| 10312021 | 11232021 | 10-Q 10/29/2021 |
External Quote Links
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