IDEAYA Biosciences (IDYA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $33.91 | Market Cap: $3.0 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
IDEAYA Biosciences (IDYA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $33.91Market Cap: $3.0 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -32% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.3% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -209 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -97% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 5378% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -40% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -48%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -49% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -95% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Oncology Treatments, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -32% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 5378% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -95% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Oncology Treatments, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.3% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -40% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -209 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -97% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -48%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -49% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
IDYA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for IDEAYA Biosciences (IDYA) stock movement for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Significant Upside in Q3 2025 Financial Results: IDEAYA Biosciences reported strong third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 4, 2025. The company announced collaboration revenue of $207.8 million, significantly exceeding the consensus estimate of approximately $60.0 million. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.33 also substantially beat expectations of -$0.55. This performance was primarily driven by the upfront recognition of a $210.0 million payment from Servier related to an exclusive license agreement for darovasertib outside the United States.
2. Strategic Partnership with Servier: The exclusive license agreement with Servier for darovasertib, announced around August 29, 2025, significantly strengthened IDEAYA's balance sheet, extending their cash runway into 2030 from an anticipated 2029. This partnership enables potential commercialization of darovasertib outside of the United States and contributed a substantial upfront payment.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| IDYA Return | 87% | 69% | -23% | 96% | -28% | 31% | 349% |
| Peers Return | 6% | -1% | -7% | -13% | -25% | 2% | -34% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| IDYA Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 58% | 67% | 25% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 29% | 21% | 25% | 27% | 15% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| IDYA Max Drawdown | -60% | -4% | -65% | -27% | -30% | -44% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -10% | -17% | -24% | -25% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | IDYA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -69.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 227.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 470 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -71.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 249.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 91 days | 148 days |
Compare to VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI
In The Past
IDEAYA Biosciences's stock fell -69.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/22/2021. A -69.4% loss requires a 227.1% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to IDYA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for IDEAYA Biosciences
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 18.44 |
| Mkt Cap | 60.7 |
| Rev LTM | 215 |
| Op Inc LTM | -92 |
| FCF LTM | -6 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -10 |
| CFO LTM | -6 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -10 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2,694.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 878.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1,485.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -49.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -1,042.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2,696.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -7.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -714.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -10.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -732.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 60.7 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| P/EBIT | 5.5 |
| P/E | 6.1 |
| P/CFO | 1.7 |
| Total Yield | -1.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -1.7% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 9.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 25.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 33.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 15.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 67.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 9.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 19.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 18.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -1.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 4.5% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2202024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8102023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3072023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8152022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3182022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
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