Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.99 | Market Cap: $2.0 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.99Market Cap: $2.0 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.3%, FCF Yield is 8.2% | |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -19% | |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 33% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.3%, FCF Yield is 8.2% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -19% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 33% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AUPH Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the 24.4% stock movement for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Performance and Upbeat Guidance: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals announced robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025 on November 4, 2025, surpassing analyst expectations. The company reported an 8% year-over-year increase in total revenue to $73.5 million, driven significantly by a 27% surge in LUPKYNIS net product sales to $70.6 million. Furthermore, net income more than doubled compared to the previous year, and management raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to between $275 million and $280 million, indicating continued strong product demand.
2. Significant Increase in Institutional Investor Stake: Tang Capital Management, a life-sciences-focused investment fund, substantially increased its position in Aurinia Pharmaceuticals during the third quarter of 2025. The firm acquired an additional 1.3 million shares, boosting its investment in the company by $40.2 million. This brought its total holding to 11.3 million shares, valued at $125.2 million as of September 30, 2025, signaling strong institutional confidence in Aurinia's prospects.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AUPH Return | -32% | 65% | -81% | 108% | -0% | 77% | -21% |
| Peers Return | 6% | -1% | -7% | -13% | -25% | 2% | -34% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AUPH Win Rate | 33% | 67% | 33% | 67% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 29% | 21% | 25% | 27% | 15% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AUPH Max Drawdown | -44% | -28% | -82% | 0% | -46% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -10% | -17% | -24% | -25% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AUPH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -87.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 704.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -47.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 545 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -63.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 171.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -90.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 911.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1814 days | 1480 days |
Compare to VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI
In The Past
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals's stock fell -87.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/29/2021. A -87.6% loss requires a 704.9% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AUPH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 8.72 |
| Mkt Cap | 60.2 |
| Rev LTM | 266 |
| Op Inc LTM | -5 |
| FCF LTM | 120 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 37 |
| CFO LTM | 120 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 37 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 19.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 16.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 38.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 36.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 60.2 |
| P/S | 7.0 |
| P/EBIT | 19.9 |
| P/E | 23.0 |
| P/CFO | 19.5 |
| Total Yield | 4.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 11.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 20.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 45.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 34.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 118.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 11.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 12.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 30.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 20.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 53.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
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