AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)
Market Price (6/25/2026): $69.67 | Market Cap: $20.3 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Communications Equipment
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)
Market Price (6/25/2026): $69.67Market Cap: $20.3 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Communications Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 1732% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Wireless Services, Telecom Infrastructure, and Satellite-to-Cell Connectivity. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -374 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -441% Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 233x Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 112% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -107%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1614% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.6% High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 106% Key risksASTS key risks include [1] a high cash burn rate and the need for substantial additional capital, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 1732% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Wireless Services, Telecom Infrastructure, and Satellite-to-Cell Connectivity. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -374 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -441% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 233x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 112% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -107%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1614% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.6% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 106% |
| Key risksASTS key risks include [1] a high cash burn rate and the need for substantial additional capital, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) stock has lost about 15% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. AST SpaceMobile experienced a significant earnings and revenue miss in fiscal Q1 2026, accompanied by a cautious analyst outlook.
The company reported its fiscal Q1 2026 results on May 11, 2026, with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of -$0.66, missing the consensus estimate of -$0.23 by $0.43. Quarterly revenue of $14.74 million also fell short of analyst estimates of $39.01 million. This represented the fifth consecutive EPS miss and the sixth revenue miss in the past seven quarters for the company. This revenue figure was also a steep 72.9% sequential decline from the $54.31 million reported in fiscal Q4 2025. Several analysts subsequently adjusted their ratings and price targets, with UBS Group cutting its price target from $85.00 to $80.00 on May 12, 2026, and Deutsche Bank downgrading the stock from "Buy" to "Hold" and lowering its price target from $117.00 to $106.00 on May 29, 2026. The consensus analyst rating for ASTS is currently "Hold" with an average price target around $74.80.
2. The loss of the BlueBird 7 satellite in April 2026 created operational setbacks and uncertainty.
On April 19, 2026, the BlueBird 7 satellite failed to reach its intended orbit due to an anomaly with a Blue Origin New Glenn rocket and was subsequently deorbited. This event caused AST SpaceMobile's shares to slide by approximately 15% and introduced delays in the company's deployment schedule for its "anchor" capacity. Following this setback, AST SpaceMobile announced a pivot to using a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket for the mid-June launch of BlueBirds 8, 9, and 10 to maintain deployment momentum.
Show more
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) stock has lost about 15% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. AST SpaceMobile experienced a significant earnings and revenue miss in fiscal Q1 2026, accompanied by a cautious analyst outlook.
The company reported its fiscal Q1 2026 results on May 11, 2026, with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of -$0.66, missing the consensus estimate of -$0.23 by $0.43. Quarterly revenue of $14.74 million also fell short of analyst estimates of $39.01 million. This represented the fifth consecutive EPS miss and the sixth revenue miss in the past seven quarters for the company. This revenue figure was also a steep 72.9% sequential decline from the $54.31 million reported in fiscal Q4 2025. Several analysts subsequently adjusted their ratings and price targets, with UBS Group cutting its price target from $85.00 to $80.00 on May 12, 2026, and Deutsche Bank downgrading the stock from "Buy" to "Hold" and lowering its price target from $117.00 to $106.00 on May 29, 2026. The consensus analyst rating for ASTS is currently "Hold" with an average price target around $74.80.
2. The loss of the BlueBird 7 satellite in April 2026 created operational setbacks and uncertainty.
On April 19, 2026, the BlueBird 7 satellite failed to reach its intended orbit due to an anomaly with a Blue Origin New Glenn rocket and was subsequently deorbited. This event caused AST SpaceMobile's shares to slide by approximately 15% and introduced delays in the company's deployment schedule for its "anchor" capacity. Following this setback, AST SpaceMobile announced a pivot to using a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket for the mid-June launch of BlueBirds 8, 9, and 10 to maintain deployment momentum.
3. Significant insider selling, particularly by major shareholders, indicated reduced confidence.
Over the last 90 days leading up to June 19, 2026, AST SpaceMobile experienced substantial insider selling, with a net value exceeding $272 million. Notably, Hiroshi Mikitani, a key insider, executed large sell transactions. For instance, in April 2026, Mikitani sold 1,690,000 shares for approximately $154.69 million on April 14, and an additional 1,350,000 shares for roughly $116.39 million on April 15. AMERICAN TOWER CORP /MA/ also sold 2,288,621 shares for an estimated $159.63 million. These transactions, all exceeding the $5 million threshold, signaled a significant divestment by individuals with intimate knowledge of the company.
4. Broader macroeconomic factors, including a tech sell-off and inflationary concerns, impacted speculative growth stocks.
AST SpaceMobile's stock movement was also influenced by a broader tech sector sell-off in early 2026, driven by geopolitical instability in the Middle East and renewed fears of inflation. As a high-beta, speculative growth stock, ASTS is particularly sensitive to shifts in market sentiment and appetite for risk. The company's valuation is largely based on the probability-weighted value of successfully building out its future satellite network, rather than current substantial revenue, making it more vulnerable to market-wide corrections away from high-growth, capital-intensive ventures.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -14.1% change in ASTS stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -80.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 79.19 | 68.01 | -14.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 19 | 85 | 358.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 1,165.9 | 232.8 | -80.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 273 | 291 | -6.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -14.1% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ASTS | -14.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.2% | 43.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 32.1% | 43.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 21.0% change in ASTS stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 358.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 56.20 | 68.01 | 21.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 19 | 85 | 358.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 827.4 | 232.8 | -71.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 273 | 291 | -6.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 21.0% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ASTS | 21.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.9% | 40.2% |
| Sector (XLK) | 28.3% | 41.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 194.8% change in ASTS stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 1732.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 23.07 | 68.01 | 194.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5 | 85 | 1732.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 1,114.6 | 232.8 | -79.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 224 | 291 | -23.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 194.8% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ASTS | 194.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 25.8% | 36.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | 59.5% | 39.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 1154.8% change in ASTS stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 643.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.42 | 68.01 | 1154.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11 | 85 | 643.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 34.1 | 232.8 | 583.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 72 | 291 | -75.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1154.8% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ASTS | 1154.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 82.4% | 29.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 127.5% | 30.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ASTS Return | -42% | -39% | 25% | 250% | 244% | 0% | 437% |
| Peers Return | 56% | -20% | 11% | 1% | 163% | 64% | 501% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 96% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ASTS Win Rate | 33% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 43% | 52% | 40% | 55% | 80% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ASTS Max Drawdown | -69% | -74% | -61% | -67% | -47% | -48% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -40% | -48% | -54% | -46% | -44% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GSAT, IRDM, SATS, VSAT, TSAT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/24/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ASTS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -35.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.8% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 11 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -35.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 67 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 41 days | 427 days |
In The Past
AST SpaceMobile's stock fell -35.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 55.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | ASTS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -35.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.8% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 11 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -35.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 67 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 41 days | 427 days |
In The Past
AST SpaceMobile's stock fell -35.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 55.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) is pioneering the development and operation of a unique space-based cellular broadband network. Unlike traditional satellite communication that requires specialized equipment, AST SpaceMobile aims to provide direct-to-standard-mobile-phone connectivity, essentially extending terrestrial cellular networks into space. The company's core mission is to eliminate coverage gaps by enabling conventional smartphones to connect to a broadband network directly from orbit.
The company's flagship offering is its SpaceMobile service. This service is designed to deliver mobile broadband access to users who are traveling in or operating within areas completely devoid of traditional terrestrial mobile coverage. This includes vast expanses of land in remote regions, open seas, and during air travel, where cellular towers are non-existent. The SpaceMobile service promises to provide seamless connectivity without the need for any modifications to existing mobile phones or the purchase of new, expensive satellite phones.
The primary customers and markets for AST SpaceMobile's service are broad and diverse, encompassing anyone who requires reliable mobile broadband beyond the reach of conventional cell towers. This includes individual travelers, remote workers, maritime industries, aviation passengers, and communities in underserved or unserved rural areas globally. Essentially, AST SpaceMobile targets the vast segment of the world's population and businesses currently lacking consistent mobile connectivity due to geographical limitations.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Starlink for smartphone connectivity.
- A global T-Mobile or Verizon, but with satellites instead of ground cell towers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- SpaceMobile Service: This service provides space-based cellular broadband connectivity for mobile phones, enabling coverage in areas without terrestrial mobile services on land, at sea, or in flight.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) primarily sells its space-based cellular broadband network service to other companies, specifically major Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) around the world. These MNOs intend to integrate SpaceMobile's service to extend their own network coverage to their subscribers, particularly in areas without terrestrial mobile services.
Major customer companies and strategic partners include:
- Vodafone Group Plc (VOD)
- AT&T Inc. (T)
- Telefónica S.A. (TEF)
- Orange S.A. (ORAN)
- Rakuten Mobile (part of Rakuten Group, Inc. - RKUNY)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- SpaceX
AI Analysis | Feedback
Abel Avellan - Founder, Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
Abel Avellan founded AST SpaceMobile (originally AST & Science LLC) in 2017 and has served as its Chairman and CEO since April 2021. He is a co-inventor on 21 to 24 U.S. patents. Prior to AST SpaceMobile, he founded Emerging Markets Communications (EMC) in 1999/2000, which he built into a leading satellite services company before selling it to Global Eagle for $550 million in 2016. He then served as President & Chief Strategy Officer at Global Eagle until April 2017. Avellan also served as Chairman of NanoAvionics until its sale by AST SpaceMobile. Born in Venezuela, he trained as an engineer and previously worked for Ericsson. He has not received a salary or bonus from AST SpaceMobile since the April 2021 business combination. Avellan has led significant capital raises for AST SpaceMobile, attracting strategic investors such as AT&T, Google, Vodafone, American Tower, and Rakuten. There is no information indicating a pattern of managing companies backed by private equity firms; EMC was bootstrapped.
Andrew Johnson - Chief Financial Officer & Chief Legal Officer
Andrew Johnson was appointed Chief Financial Officer in June 2024, in addition to his role as Chief Legal Officer. He joined AST SpaceMobile in May 2024. Before joining AST SpaceMobile, Johnson held various senior roles at 3D Systems Corporation, including EVP, Chief Corporate Development Officer, Chief Legal Officer, interim President and CEO, and interim CFO. He is responsible for overseeing all aspects of accounting, reporting, treasury, compliance, risk management, and global legal matters for AST SpaceMobile. Information regarding him founding or selling other companies, or a pattern of managing private equity-backed companies, is not available in the provided sources.
Scott Wisniewski - President & Chief Strategy Officer
Scott Wisniewski assumed the additional role of President in June 2024, alongside his position as Chief Strategy Officer. He joined AST SpaceMobile in March 2021. Wisniewski oversees commercialization efforts, corporate development, financing strategy, capital markets, and investor relations. Since joining the company, he has been instrumental in driving significant corporate agreements and milestones, including raising over $600 million of capital in the form of equity, convertible notes, and non-dilutive prepayments for AST SpaceMobile. Prior to his time at AST SpaceMobile, he spent over a decade as Managing Director of Technology, Media & Telecommunications Investment Banking at Barclays, where he advised clients on capital raising and mergers & acquisitions, including advising AST SpaceMobile on its 2021 business combination and 2019 strategic investment. His early career included roles as a management consultant and a mechanical design engineer.
Shanti Gupta - Chief Operating Officer
Shanti Gupta was promoted to Chief Operating Officer from Chief Accounting Officer in June 2024. In his role, he drives many aspects of the company's operations, including supply chain, vendor relationships and negotiations, cost optimization, risk management, and information technology. His focus as COO is on enhancing operational excellence, driving cost efficiencies, and managing global expansion as AST SpaceMobile transitions to full-scale manufacturing and production.
Dr. Huiwen Yao - Chief Technology Officer
Dr. Huiwen Yao serves as the Chief Technology Officer at AST SpaceMobile. Details of his specific professional background, including previous companies founded, managed, or sold, or involvement with private equity-backed firms, are not available in the provided search results.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Key Risks for AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)
- High Cash Burn and Profitability Challenges: AST SpaceMobile is currently a pre-commercial infrastructure builder, incurring substantial net losses due to heavy investments in satellite constellation build-out, research and development (R&D), and manufacturing. The company's financial performance reflects significant development investments that have yet to translate into consistent revenue and profitability. While AST SpaceMobile has secured some contracted revenue commitments and has liquidity, there remains a risk that it will require additional capital infusions, which could lead to further dilution for existing shareholders. The ability to transition from a cash-burning development phase to a profitable operational phase, generating positive cash flow, is a critical risk.
- Execution Risk in Satellite Deployment and Technology Validation: The successful realization of AST SpaceMobile's business model hinges on its ability to successfully manufacture, launch, and reliably operate a large constellation of advanced satellites, known as BlueBird satellites. This includes the challenging transition from low-rate hardware production to an assembly line process capable of producing numerous large satellites at scale. Any bottlenecks in component supply, manufacturing delays, launch failures, or issues with satellites unfolding and operating as intended in orbit could significantly disrupt the company's rollout timeline, increase costs, and negatively impact its business prospects and financial condition.
- Intense Competition and Market Adoption Uncertainty: The satellite communications industry is highly competitive, with established players and new entrants, such as SpaceX's Starlink, actively pursuing direct-to-cell services. AST SpaceMobile must rapidly scale its operations, secure robust carrier commitments, and validate its unique technology to effectively compete in this evolving market. There is also an inherent risk that the market for direct-to-device satellite cellular broadband may not adopt the service at the scale or speed the company anticipates, or that rapid technological advancements by competitors could lead to obsolescence of AST SpaceMobile's offerings.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Starlink's Direct to Cell service: Backed by SpaceX's significant launch and constellation capabilities, Starlink has announced plans and partnerships (e.g., with T-Mobile) to offer direct satellite-to-phone connectivity for text, voice, and data, directly competing with AST SpaceMobile's core offering.
- Lynk Global: This company is also actively developing and launching its own satellite-to-phone technology, demonstrating capabilities for text and voice, and aiming for broadband services directly to unmodified mobile phones, positioning itself as a direct competitor in the same market.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
AST SpaceMobile (symbol: ASTS) is poised for future revenue growth over the next two to three years, driven primarily by the following factors:
- Accelerated Deployment and Scaling of the BlueBird Satellite Constellation: A key driver of future revenue for AST SpaceMobile is the rapid deployment and scaling of its BlueBird satellite constellation. The company aims to deploy 45 to 60 satellites into low Earth orbit by the end of 2026, with current expectations closer to 60 satellites ready to ship and 45 satellites in orbit. Manufacturing capacity has reached six satellites worth of micron and phased arrays per month. These Block 2 BlueBird satellites are significantly more advanced, being 3.5 times larger and offering 10 times the capacity of their predecessors, enabling more robust and widespread service. The goal is to achieve continuous service in initial markets and expand to "all targeted" markets with a constellation of approximately 90 satellites by 2027. This expansion is critical for delivering reliable, global space-based cellular broadband.
- Commercial Service Activation and Expansion with Mobile Network Operator (MNO) Partners: AST SpaceMobile has established a broad commercial ecosystem, securing over $1.2 billion in minimum committed revenue from more than 50 mobile network operator partners globally, covering nearly 3 billion subscribers. The company is transitioning from initial commercial activation to broader commercial service with these partners in key markets such as the United States, Europe, Japan, and Saudi Arabia. The delivery of commercial gateways to MNO partners and the eventual rollout of direct-to-device (D2D) services are expected to translate these commitments into significant recurring service revenue.
- Growth in Government Contracts and Specialized Services: Revenue growth is also expected from continued and expanding engagement with government entities. The company has already reported revenue driven by U.S. government service milestone achievements and gateway hardware sales. AST SpaceMobile is positioning itself as a key federal government contractor and anticipates ongoing support for U.S. government applications as its constellation matures.
- Geographic Market Penetration and Subscriber Growth: As the BlueBird constellation expands and commercial agreements with MNOs progress, AST SpaceMobile plans to broaden its service footprint to new geographic markets. The company expects to enable intermittent nationwide service in selected markets by early 2026, progressing to continuous service later in 2026 across the U.S., Europe, and Japan, with further expansion into other strategic markets. This penetration into new regions, coupled with the ability to capture a growing subscriber base for direct-to-cell services, will be a significant long-term revenue driver.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- In February 2026, AST SpaceMobile announced proposed cash repurchases of approximately $300 million of its convertible senior notes due 2032, comprising $46.5 million of 4.25% notes and $250.0 million of 2.375% notes.
- In June 2025, the company repurchased $225 million of its 4.25% convertible notes due 2032, effectively removing approximately 8.3 million underlying shares from potential dilution.
Share Issuance
- In February 2026, AST SpaceMobile issued approximately 6.3 million shares of Class A common stock at $96.92 per share to noteholders participating in the repurchase of convertible notes.
- The company's outstanding shares increased by 437% over the past five years, indicating shareholder dilution.
- In 2025, AST SpaceMobile's financing activities were supported by $1.30 billion from common stock issuance. An 'at the market offering' program was also announced in October 2025, allowing for the sale of up to $800 million in Class A common stock over three years, with approximately $277.4 million raised as of October 20, 2025.
Inbound Investments
- In February 2026, AST SpaceMobile raised $1.075 billion in gross proceeds from a new 10-year convertible senior notes offering.
- During 2025, the company raised over $3.5 billion in capital, including approximately $2.2 billion of net proceeds from two convertible notes offerings (October 2025 and February 2026).
- AST SpaceMobile received a $175.0 million prepayment from stc Group in 2025 as part of a 10-year regional agreement.
Capital Expenditures
- For the full year 2025, AST SpaceMobile incurred approximately $1.6 billion in capitalized property and equipment.
- Capital expenditures for Q4 2025 were approximately $407 million, an increase from $259 million in Q3 2025.
- Estimated capital expenditures for Q1 2026 are projected to be between $350 million and $425 million, primarily due to the timing of launch payments for its satellite constellation, with a goal to deploy 45-60 satellites by the end of 2026.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 65.12 |
| Mkt Cap | 9.4 |
| Rev LTM | 632 |
| Op Inc LTM | -10 |
| FCF LTM | 35 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -119 |
| CFO LTM | 171 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 374 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -21.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -32.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 0.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -8.1% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $68.01 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 19.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/01/2019 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -48.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $87.00 | $80.88 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -21.8% | -15.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 120.0% | 106.1% |
| Downside Capture | 590.79 | 395.07 |
| Upside Capture | 247.33 | 335.63 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 43.9% | 37.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 5.10 | 2.48 | 3.26 | 3.73 | 3.11 | 2.28 |
| Up Beta | 7.20 | 0.21 | 0.90 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 1.83 |
| Down Beta | -0.29 | 0.62 | 2.69 | 3.57 | 3.77 | 2.21 |
| Up Capture | 841% | 390% | 680% | 1588% | 1950% | 22466% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 24 | 34 | 70 | 141 | 382 |
| Down Capture | 340% | 579% | 345% | 286% | 185% | 113% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 6 | 17 | 29 | 54 | 108 | 366 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ASTS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASTS | 35.7% | 106.2% | 0.78 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 51.6% | 23.5% | 1.70 | 40.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 23.3% | 12.5% | 1.40 | 37.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.7% | 27.7% | 0.57 | 23.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 18.2% | 18.6% | 0.76 | 6.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.6% | 13.8% | 0.56 | 8.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -40.6% | 42.4% | -1.11 | 32.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ASTS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASTS | 43.9% | 109.6% | 0.81 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 21.8% | 25.3% | 0.76 | 34.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 17.1% | 0.60 | 32.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.4% | 18.3% | 0.73 | 6.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.9% | 19.5% | 0.26 | 4.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.7% | 18.9% | 0.04 | 22.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.4% | 54.1% | 0.39 | 18.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ASTS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASTS | 21.4% | 100.7% | 0.73 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 25.1% | 24.7% | 0.92 | 27.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 24.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.5% | 16.1% | 0.59 | 5.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.7% | 18.0% | 0.24 | 4.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 16.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 57.2% | 66.5% | 0.97 | 15.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/15/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/11/2026 | -11.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% |
| 3/2/2026 | 6.6% | 3.3% | -4.7% |
| 11/10/2025 | -1.2% | -17.6% | 23.4% |
| 8/11/2025 | 8.4% | 4.9% | -18.2% |
| 5/12/2025 | -2.2% | -9.4% | 34.3% |
| 3/4/2025 | 18.1% | 0.2% | -21.7% |
| 11/14/2024 | -9.6% | -9.9% | -9.3% |
| 8/14/2024 | 50.7% | 75.1% | 43.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 11 | 8 |
| # Negative | 10 | 8 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 9.3% | 5.2% | 28.8% |
| Median Negative | -7.5% | -10.6% | -18.2% |
| Max Positive | 68.6% | 94.8% | 327.6% |
| Max Negative | -25.7% | -29.1% | -50.4% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/11/2026 | -11.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% |
| 3/2/2026 | 6.6% | 3.3% | -4.7% |
| 11/10/2025 | -1.2% | -17.6% | 23.4% |
| 8/11/2025 | 8.4% | 4.9% | -18.2% |
| 5/12/2025 | -2.2% | -9.4% | 34.3% |
| 3/4/2025 | 18.1% | 0.2% | -21.7% |
| 11/14/2024 | -9.6% | -9.9% | -9.3% |
| 8/14/2024 | 50.7% | 75.1% | 43.3% |
| 5/15/2024 | 68.6% | 94.8% | 327.6% |
| 1/18/2024 | -25.7% | -29.1% | -17.5% |
| 11/14/2023 | 23.6% | 14.3% | 45.6% |
| 8/14/2023 | -15.7% | -10.8% | -8.0% |
| 5/15/2023 | -0.8% | 14.7% | 19.1% |
| 11/14/2022 | -6.1% | -18.5% | -50.4% |
| 8/15/2022 | 9.3% | -10.4% | -20.5% |
| 5/16/2022 | 6.3% | 11.0% | -9.6% |
| 3/31/2022 | 6.1% | 3.1% | -20.2% |
| 11/15/2021 | -0.4% | -8.0% | -32.8% |
| 8/16/2021 | -8.9% | 2.0% | 22.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 11 | 8 |
| # Negative | 10 | 8 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 9.3% | 5.2% | 28.8% |
| Median Negative | -7.5% | -10.6% | -18.2% |
| Max Positive | 68.6% | 94.8% | 327.6% |
| Max Negative | -25.7% | -29.1% | -50.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/11/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/03/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/14/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/14/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/15/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 04/01/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/14/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/14/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/15/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/31/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/14/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/16/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/11/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/03/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/14/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/14/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/15/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 04/01/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/14/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/14/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/15/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/31/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/14/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/16/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/16/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/31/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/15/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/16/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/18/2021 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 5/31/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 150.00 Mil | 175.00 Mil | 200.00 Mil | Affirmed | |||
| 2026 Satellites in orbit | 45 | 52.5 | 60 | Affirmed | |||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/2/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Satellites in orbit | 45 | 52.5 | 60 | ||||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/23/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnson, Andrew Martin | CFO and CLO | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 93.81 | 45,809 | 4,297,342 | 47,244,498 | Form |
| 2 | Yao, Huiwen | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 6082026 | 96.37 | 40,000 | 3,854,800 | 3,348,858 | Form |
| 3 | Wisniewski, Scott | President | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 126.64 | 25,904 | 3,280,483 | 94,470,021 | Form |
| 4 | Johnson, Andrew Martin | CFO and CLO | Direct | Sell | 5212026 | 90.25 | 5,000 | 451,250 | 51,063,901 | Form |
| 5 | Torres, Julio A | Direct | Sell | 5142026 | 76.34 | 15,000 | 1,145,100 | 3,300,865 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnson, Andrew Martin | CFO and CLO | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 93.81 | 45,809 | 4,297,342 | 47,244,498 | Form |
| 2 | Yao, Huiwen | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 6082026 | 96.37 | 40,000 | 3,854,800 | 3,348,858 | Form |
| 3 | Wisniewski, Scott | President | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 126.64 | 25,904 | 3,280,483 | 94,470,021 | Form |
| 4 | Johnson, Andrew Martin | CFO and CLO | Direct | Sell | 5212026 | 90.25 | 5,000 | 451,250 | 51,063,901 | Form |
| 5 | Torres, Julio A | Direct | Sell | 5142026 | 76.34 | 15,000 | 1,145,100 | 3,300,865 | Form | |
| 6 | Mikitani, Hiroshi | See footnote | Sell | 4162026 | 86.22 | 1,350,000 | 116,397,000 | 2,412,448,964 | Form | |
| 7 | Mikitani, Hiroshi | See footnote | Sell | 4162026 | 91.42 | 1,690,000 | 154,499,800 | 2,681,362,770 | Form | |
| 8 | Yao, Huiwen | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 3242026 | 88.88 | 40,000 | 3,555,200 | 422,180 | Form |
| 9 | Wisniewski, Scott | President | Direct | Sell | 3182026 | 94.75 | 47,000 | 4,453,250 | 63,168,025 | Form |
| 10 | Larson, Keith R | IRA | Buy | 12292025 | 80.00 | 625 | 50,000 | 161,200 | Form | |
| 11 | Larson, Keith R | IRA | Buy | 12172025 | 70.02 | 715 | 50,064 | 97,328 | Form | |
| 12 | Gupta, Shanti B | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 77.34 | 10,000 | 773,400 | 29,572,882 | Form |
| 13 | American, Tower Corp /ma/ | See Explanation of Responses | Sell | 12112025 | 69.75 | 2,288,621 | 159,631,315 | 14,743,685 | Form | |
| 14 | Larson, Keith R | by IRA | Buy | 12102025 | 72.71 | 675 | 49,079 | 49,079 | Form | |
| 15 | Yao, Huiwen | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 12082025 | 73.52 | 40,000 | 2,940,800 | 349,220 | Form |
| 16 | Bernal, Maya | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 12082025 | 73.76 | 6,000 | 442,560 | 9,034,567 | Form |
| 17 | Johnson, Andrew Martin | CFO and CLO | Direct | Sell | 11282025 | 56.00 | 10,000 | 560,010 | 21,699,547 | Form |
| 18 | Cisneros, Adriana | Entity | Buy | 11242025 | 50.79 | 750 | 38,092 | 39,823,271 | Form | |
| 19 | Yao, Huiwen | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 9172025 | 40.58 | 40,000 | 1,623,200 | 192,755 | Form |
| 20 | Yao, Huiwen | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 9042025 | 48.04 | 16,000 | 768,640 | 2,149,790 | Form |
| 21 | Johnson, Andrew Martin | CFO and CLO | Direct | Sell | 8262025 | 52.48 | 20,000 | 1,049,600 | 20,860,013 | Form |
| 22 | Gupta, Shanti B | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 6162025 | 41.84 | 10,000 | 418,400 | 12,789,107 | Form |
| 23 | Yao, Huiwen | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 6102025 | 34.60 | 4,250 | 147,050 | 717,950 | Form |
| 24 | Gupta, Shanti B | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 6102025 | 36.08 | 15,000 | 541,200 | 11,389,265 | Form |
| 25 | Wisniewski, Scott | President | Direct | Sell | 6092025 | 35.65 | 50,000 | 1,782,500 | 19,450,462 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Information Technology Resources |
| TechCrunch |
| Wired |
| CIO |
| MIT Technology Review |
| Gartner Insights |
| Ars Technica |
| Communications Equipment Resources |
| Light Reading |
| Fierce Network |
| Telecoms.com |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.