AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $63.18 | Market Cap: $15.3 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Communications Equipment
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $63.18Market Cap: $15.3 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Communications Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 249% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -260 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5315% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Wireless Services, Telecom Infrastructure, and Satellite-to-Cell Connectivity. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 2312x | |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 114%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 168% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2737%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13836% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 143% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.4% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 249% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Wireless Services, Telecom Infrastructure, and Satellite-to-Cell Connectivity. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -260 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5315% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 2312x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 114%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 168% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2737%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13836% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 143% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.4% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ASTS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the movement of AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) stock between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:
1. September 2025: Regulatory Approval and Satellite Assembly Progress. AST SpaceMobile announced that its first Block 2 BlueBird satellite, BlueBird 6, was fully assembled and undergoing final testing. Additionally, the company received conditional launch approval from the FCC for 20 of its satellites, marking tangible progress towards building its space-based mobile network.
2. October 2025: Strategic Partnership with Verizon. A significant agreement was struck with Verizon to provide direct-to-cellular coverage to every area in the U.S., leveraging AST SpaceMobile's space-based network, with services expected to commence in 2026. This partnership led to a notable increase in ASTS stock.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ASTS Return | 38% | -42% | -39% | 25% | 250% | 170% | 476% |
| Peers Return | 8% | 41% | -13% | 6% | 11% | 68% | 162% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ASTS Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 37% | 52% | 28% | 40% | 42% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ASTS Max Drawdown | -4% | -48% | -54% | -43% | -67% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -33% | -3% | -24% | -27% | -26% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VSAT, ADTN, FIEE, CSCO, ANET.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ASTS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -87.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 721.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 297 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -7.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 8.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 15 days | 148 days |
Compare to VSAT, ADTN, FIEE, CSCO, ANET
In The Past
AST SpaceMobile's stock fell -87.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/9/2021. A -87.8% loss requires a 721.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ASTS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for AST SpaceMobile
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 47.86 |
| Mkt Cap | 14.9 |
| Rev LTM | 2,800 |
| Op Inc LTM | -19 |
| FCF LTM | 57 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -4 |
| CFO LTM | 553 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 388 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 20.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 22.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -3.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -9.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -7.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 14.9 |
| P/S | 4.9 |
| P/EBIT | -12.8 |
| P/E | -3.2 |
| P/CFO | 8.3 |
| Total Yield | -3.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -16.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 34.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 34.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 70.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -16.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 19.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 21.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 3.7% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8112025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11142024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5152024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4012024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8142023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5152023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3312023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8162022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5162022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3312022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11152021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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