Viasat (VSAT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $35.76 | Market Cap: $4.7 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Communications Equipment
Viasat (VSAT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $35.76Market Cap: $4.7 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Communications Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -68% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -111 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.4% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, Advanced Aviation & Space, and Cybersecurity. Themes include Wireless Services, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 308% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 286%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 253% | ||
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.4% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 73% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -35% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, Advanced Aviation & Space, and Cybersecurity. Themes include Wireless Services, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -68% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -111 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.4% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 308% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 286%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 253% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.4% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 73% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -35% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
VSAT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining Viasat's (VSAT) stock movement during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Inmarsat Maritime's NexusWave Service Upgrade with ViaSat-3 Satellites.
On December 1, 2025, Inmarsat Maritime, a Viasat company, announced plans to upgrade its NexusWave bonded connectivity service. This enhancement follows the successful launch of the ViaSat-3 Flight 2 satellite and anticipates ViaSat-3 Flight 3, with these satellites expected to enter service in 2026. This move aims to provide increased bandwidth and improved service for maritime customers, showcasing Viasat's commitment to technological advancement and market expansion.
2. Publication of Report on Rising Demand for Direct-to-Device Satellite Connectivity.
On December 3, 2025, Viasat released a new report highlighting significant consumer demand for direct-to-device (D2D) satellite connectivity. The report indicated that over 60% of consumers are willing to pay extra for satellite-enabled services, suggesting substantial new revenue opportunities for Mobile Network Operators and a strong market for Viasat's satellite communication solutions.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VSAT Return | -55% | 36% | -29% | -12% | -70% | 294% | -54% |
| Peers Return | 30% | 22% | -24% | 34% | 14% | 15% | 111% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VSAT Win Rate | 25% | 67% | 50% | 50% | 17% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 63% | 40% | 50% | 52% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VSAT Max Drawdown | -62% | -3% | -41% | -51% | -76% | -12% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -33% | -13% | -37% | -3% | -14% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: QCOM, MSI, NTAP, QRVO, ESE. See VSAT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VSAT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -76.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 332.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -62.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 168.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -29.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -57.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 134.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 549 days | 1480 days |
Compare to QCOM, MSI, NTAP, QRVO, ESE
In The Past
Viasat's stock fell -76.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/5/2021. A -76.9% loss requires a 332.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to VSAT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 07312025 | VSAT | Viasat | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 108.7% | 108.7% | 0.0% |
| 01312025 | VSAT | Viasat | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 72.3% | 256.4% | -20.0% |
| 06302022 | VSAT | Viasat | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 34.7% | -14.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 07312025 | VSAT | Viasat | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 108.7% | 108.7% | 0.0% |
| 01312025 | VSAT | Viasat | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 72.3% | 256.4% | -20.0% |
| 06302022 | VSAT | Viasat | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 34.7% | -14.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Viasat
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 144.42 |
| Mkt Cap | 15.7 |
| Rev LTM | 5,577 |
| Op Inc LTM | 901 |
| FCF LTM | 1,096 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 959 |
| CFO LTM | 1,427 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,146 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 22.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 15.7 |
| P/S | 3.6 |
| P/EBIT | 20.0 |
| P/E | 34.2 |
| P/CFO | 12.6 |
| Total Yield | 3.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 12.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 18.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 45.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -2.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 7.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -21.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication services | 3,142 | 1,705 | |||
| Defense and advanced technologies | 1,142 | 851 | |||
| Elimination of intersegment revenues | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Commercial networks | 512 | 321 | 345 | ||
| Government systems | 716 | 731 | 1,138 | ||
| Satellite services | 1,189 | 869 | 827 | ||
| Total | 4,284 | 2,556 | 2,417 | 1,921 | 2,309 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense and advanced technologies | 154 | 63 | |||
| Elimination of intersegment operating profits (losses) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Amortization of acquired intangible assets | -227 | -30 | -29 | -5 | -8 |
| Communication services | -817 | -189 | |||
| Commercial networks | -209 | -206 | -187 | ||
| Corporate | 0 | 0 | |||
| Government systems | 93 | 140 | 226 | ||
| Satellite services | 32 | 26 | 7 | ||
| Total | -890 | -156 | -113 | -46 | 38 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5272025 | 10-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2102025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5292024 | 10-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2092024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5222023 | 10-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2092023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5312022 | 10-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2072022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11092021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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