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Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Algoma Steel:

• Canada's Nucor: Algoma Steel is a leading Canadian steel producer, undergoing a significant transition to modern, efficient steelmaking methods, drawing a comparison to the highly successful U.S. steel mini-mill operator Nucor.
• A Canadian U.S. Steel: Like U.S. Steel, Algoma is a foundational integrated steel producer with a long history, supplying essential steel products to the North American market from its Canadian base.

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• Hot Rolled Steel Sheets & Coils: Steel that has been rolled at high temperatures, suitable for structural components, pipes, and general fabrication due to its strength and workability.
• Cold Rolled Steel Sheets & Coils: Steel processed from hot rolled steel at room temperature, resulting in a smoother finish, improved strength, and tighter tolerances for applications requiring better surface quality.
• Plate Steel: Thick, flat steel sheets known for their strength and durability, primarily used in heavy construction, shipbuilding, bridge building, and industrial machinery.

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Algoma Steel (ASTL) primarily sells its hot and cold rolled steel products to other companies (B2B), rather than directly to individuals. Their products are essential inputs for a variety of industries.

Due to the nature of the steel industry and a typically diverse customer base, Algoma Steel does not publicly disclose the names of its specific major customer companies. Consequently, specific company names and their symbols cannot be provided. However, its major customers can be categorized by the types of businesses and industries they serve:

• Steel Service Centers and Distributors: These companies are crucial intermediaries in the steel supply chain. They purchase large volumes of various steel products from producers like Algoma Steel, perform initial processing (such as cutting, slitting, and shaping), and then distribute smaller quantities to a wide range of end-users across diverse industries, including smaller manufacturers, fabricators, and construction firms.

• Manufacturing Companies: This category includes a broad spectrum of businesses that use steel as a primary input for their finished products. Key sub-sectors include:

  • Automotive Manufacturers and Suppliers: Companies producing vehicles or automotive components that require various forms of steel.
  • Heavy Equipment Manufacturers: Producers of industrial machinery, agricultural equipment, and construction vehicles.
  • General Manufacturing and Fabricators: Companies involved in producing a wide array of goods, from appliances to industrial components, requiring steel for their fabrication processes.

• Construction and Infrastructure Fabricators: These customers include companies involved in large-scale construction projects and infrastructure development. They use Algoma Steel's products for structural applications, rebar, pipelines, bridges, and other building materials. This also often includes companies that fabricate steel components specifically for these projects.

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• United States Steel Corporation (NYSE: X)
• Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE: CLF)
• CONSOL Energy Inc. (NYSE: CEIX)

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The key risks to Algoma Steel's business are multifaceted, primarily stemming from external market dynamics and a significant internal strategic transformation.

1. U.S. Section 232 Tariffs and Canadian Market Oversupply: Algoma Steel faces substantial headwinds due to persistent 50% U.S. tariffs on imported steel, which have severely restricted cross-border market access and contributed to an oversupply in the Canadian coil market. This trade policy has directly impacted the company's revenue opportunities, shipping volumes, and overall profitability, leading to significant financial challenges.
2. Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) Transition Risks and Capital Expenditure: The company is undertaking a critical and costly strategic shift to Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) steelmaking, aiming to reduce production costs and carbon emissions. However, this transformation involves substantial capital expenditure, complex operational adjustments, and inherent risks of delays or cost overruns. The success and timely execution of this project are crucial for Algoma Steel's long-term competitiveness, especially given its current financial pressures.
3. Weak Steel Demand, Cost Pressures, and Financial Health: Algoma Steel is contending with persistent weak steel demand and significant pressures on its profit margins. The company has reported declining sales, operating losses, and negative profitability, including a substantial net loss in Q3 2025. Its financial strength is rated as poor, with ongoing debt and liquidity concerns, further evidenced by a suspended dividend. The uncertain market environment has created headwinds for shipments and pricing across the industry.

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• Hot Rolled Steel:
  • North America: Null
  • Canada: Null
• Cold Rolled Steel:
  • North America: Null
  • Canada: Null
• Plate Steel:
  • North America: Null
  • Canada: Null

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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Algoma Steel (ASTL) over the next 2-3 years:

1. Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) Transition and Increased Production Volume: The ongoing EAF modernization project is a significant driver. This transition is expected to enhance operational flexibility, improve efficiency, and ultimately lead to increased raw steel production capacity. Higher production volumes will directly translate into greater sales and revenue.
2. Enhanced Product Mix and Higher-Value Products: The EAF technology is anticipated to enable Algoma Steel to produce a more diverse range of advanced and higher-strength steel grades. Shifting towards a richer product mix with more value-added products, such as those used in automotive or specialized industrial applications, is expected to command higher average selling prices and boost overall revenue.
3. Improved Cost Competitiveness and Market Share Gains: The EAF transition is projected to reduce Algoma Steel's reliance on fossil fuels and lower its operating costs, particularly in energy consumption. This improved cost structure will enhance the company's competitiveness, potentially allowing it to gain market share or maintain strong sales volumes even during periods of market fluctuations, thereby supporting revenue growth.
4. Favorable Steel Market Demand and Pricing: While subject to market cycles, a sustained period of robust demand for steel, driven by infrastructure spending, manufacturing growth, and broader economic recovery in North America, could lead to higher sales volumes and firm pricing. Algoma Steel would benefit from such market conditions, contributing to revenue expansion.

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Share Repurchases

• Algoma Steel announced a Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) in November 2022, authorizing the repurchase of up to 5% of its common shares.
• The company repurchased common shares totaling approximately $50 million under its NCIB during fiscal year 2023.
• An updated NCIB was authorized in November 2023, allowing for the repurchase of up to 5% of its common shares over the subsequent 12-month period.

Capital Expenditures

• Algoma Steel's primary capital expenditure focus is the transformational Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) project, which aims to transition the company from blast furnace steelmaking to EAF steelmaking.
• Total capital expenditures were approximately $220 million in fiscal year 2023, largely driven by the progress on the EAF project.
• Expected capital expenditures for fiscal year 2024 are projected to be between $400 million and $450 million, primarily allocated to the continued advancement of the EAF project.