Assembly Biosciences (ASMB)
Market Price (8/8/2026): $26.56 | Market Cap: $448.9 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Assembly Biosciences (ASMB)
Market Price (8/8/2026): $26.56Market Cap: $448.9 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -50% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 121% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 14.7, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -14 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -19% Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -13% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -56%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -56% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.8% Key risksASMB key risks include [1] a total dependence on the clinical and regulatory success of its pipeline as it has no approved products, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -50% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 121% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 14.7, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -14 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -19% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -13% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -56%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -56% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.8% |
| Key risksASMB key risks include [1] a total dependence on the clinical and regulatory success of its pipeline as it has no approved products, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Assembly Biosciences (ASMB) stock has remained largely at the same level since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Q1 2026 Financial Results: Assembly Biosciences reported a net loss of ($0.54) per share in fiscal Q1 2026, beating analyst estimates of ($0.65) by $0.11. However, its revenue of $8.21 million missed expectations of $9.27 million, presenting a mixed financial picture for the quarter.
2. Gilead Partnership Milestone and Concurrent Dilution: The positive news of Gilead exercising its option to exclusively license Assembly Bio's HSV helicase-primase inhibitor programs, which included a $35 million payment, was potentially balanced by the announcement and closing of a $100 million offering of common stock and pre-funded warrants in May 2026, which could lead to shareholder dilution.
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Assembly Biosciences (ASMB) stock has remained largely at the same level since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Q1 2026 Financial Results: Assembly Biosciences reported a net loss of ($0.54) per share in fiscal Q1 2026, beating analyst estimates of ($0.65) by $0.11. However, its revenue of $8.21 million missed expectations of $9.27 million, presenting a mixed financial picture for the quarter.
2. Gilead Partnership Milestone and Concurrent Dilution: The positive news of Gilead exercising its option to exclusively license Assembly Bio's HSV helicase-primase inhibitor programs, which included a $35 million payment, was potentially balanced by the announcement and closing of a $100 million offering of common stock and pre-funded warrants in May 2026, which could lead to shareholder dilution.
3. Early-to-Mid-Stage Clinical Pipeline Awaiting Key Data: While the company presented interim Phase 1b data for ABI-5366 and ABI-1179 at ESCMID 2026 and is planning a Phase 2 clinical study for ABI-6250 in chronic hepatitis delta virus infection in fiscal Q4 2026, the pipeline remains in early-to-mid-stage development, leading the market to await more definitive late-stage clinical trial results for sustained appreciation.
4. Analyst Price Targets Signal Future Potential, Not Immediate Action: Despite several analyst "Buy" ratings and an average price target ranging from $44.00 to $47.50 as of July 2026, which is significantly above the stock's recent trading range of $25.11 to $25.88, the stock has not rallied, indicating that the market may be waiting for more concrete catalysts to align with these optimistic valuations.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.0% change in ASMB stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -6.2% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 26.95 | 26.68 | -1.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 72 | 71 | -1.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 5.9 | 6.3 | 7.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 16 | 17 | -6.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ASMB | -1.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.6% | 22.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 13.5% | 18.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 3.5% change in ASMB stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 91.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 25.77 | 26.68 | 3.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 37 | 71 | 91.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 8.8 | 6.3 | -27.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 13 | 17 | -24.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 3.5% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ASMB | 3.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.1% | 32.2% |
| Sector (XLV) | 7.5% | 27.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 48.8% change in ASMB stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 121.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 17.93 | 26.68 | 48.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 32 | 71 | 121.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 4.2 | 6.3 | 51.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 8 | 17 | -55.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 48.8% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ASMB | 48.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 23.4% | 29.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 28.7% | 21.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 100.3% change in ASMB stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 9.2233720368547763E17% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.32 | 26.68 | 100.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 71 | 9.2233720368547763E17% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | 6.3 | |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4 | 17 | -74.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ASMB | 100.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.9% | 21.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 29.3% | 17.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ASMB Return | -61% | -44% | -37% | 60% | 116% | -22% | -64% |
| Peers Return | 7% | -14% | -9% | -9% | 89% | 9% | 56% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ASMB Win Rate | 17% | 25% | 33% | 67% | 58% | 38% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 43% | 42% | 42% | 65% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ASMB Max Drawdown | -68% | -56% | -63% | -30% | -53% | -35% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -43% | -43% | -40% | -39% | -37% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GILD, VIR, ARWR, IONS, ABUS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/7/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ASMB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -35.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 24 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -39.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 100 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -48.7% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 540 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -44.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 81.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1255 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -50.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 102.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 60 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -67.7% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 209.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 245 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Assembly Biosciences's stock fell -35.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 54.1% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | ASMB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -35.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 24 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -39.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 100 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -48.7% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 540 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -44.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 81.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1255 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -50.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 102.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 60 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -67.7% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 209.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 245 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -35.0% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.8% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 217 days | 15 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -60.2% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 151.4% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 310 days | 1 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -32.3% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.7% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 202 days | 123 days |
In The Past
Assembly Biosciences's stock fell -35.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 54.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Assembly Biosciences (ASMB)
Assembly Biosciences, Inc. (ASMB) is a clinical-stage biotechnology company primarily focused on the discovery and development of therapeutic candidates for the treatment of Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. The company aims to provide innovative solutions for patients suffering from chronic HBV, operating within the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, with a specific emphasis on infectious diseases.
The company's pipeline includes several promising drug candidates. Its lead product, Vebicorvir, has completed Phase 2 clinical trials for the treatment of chronic HBV infection. Additionally, Assembly Biosciences is developing ABI-H3733, which has completed a Phase 1a clinical study, and ABI-4334, currently in pre-clinical trials. These candidates represent its core efforts to advance new treatments for HBV.
Assembly Biosciences strategically collaborates with other entities to further its development goals, including agreements with BeiGene, Ltd., Arbutus Biopharma Corporation, and Antios Therapeutics, Inc. to explore triple combination treatments for chronic HBV. The company also holds strategic license agreements with partners such as Indiana University Research and Technology Corporation and Door Pharmaceuticals, LLC. Its primary market consists of patients afflicted with chronic HBV infection, served through the global healthcare sector.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Assembly Biosciences (ASMB):
- Like an early-stage Gilead Sciences, but laser-focused on Hepatitis B.
- Think of it as a Vertex Pharmaceuticals dedicated specifically to developing treatments for Hepatitis B.
- Imagine it like a small, highly specialized version of a big pharma company's R&D division, but singularly devoted to cracking the code on Hepatitis B.
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- Vebicorvir: A lead product candidate that has completed Phase 2 clinical trials for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection.
- ABI-H3733: A therapeutic candidate for HBV that has completed a Phase 1a clinical study.
- ABI-4334: A therapeutic candidate for HBV that is currently in pre-clinical trials.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Assembly Biosciences (ASMB) is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on the discovery and development of therapeutic candidates for the treatment of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. As a clinical-stage company, it does not currently have approved products for direct commercial sale to individual patients or healthcare providers.
Instead, Assembly Biosciences generates revenue and conducts its business primarily through collaborations and strategic licensing agreements with other pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, as well as academic institutions. These entities can be considered its major "customers" as they engage in financial agreements (e.g., milestone payments, research funding, licensing fees) for Assembly Biosciences' intellectual property, drug candidates, or expertise.
Based on the provided description, Assembly Biosciences sells primarily to other companies and institutions. Its major customers, in the context of these agreements, include:
- BeiGene, Ltd. (BGNE)
- Arbutus Biopharma Corporation (ABUS)
- Antios Therapeutics, Inc.
- Indiana University Research and Technology Corporation
- Door Pharmaceuticals, LLC
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Jason Okazaki, Chief Executive Officer & President
Mr. Okazaki has served as Assembly's Chief Executive Officer and President since January 2023. He initially joined Assembly in 2020 as Chief Legal and Business Officer and was subsequently promoted to President and Chief Operating Officer. Before his tenure at Assembly, he spent 14 years at Gilead Sciences, Inc. as Senior Vice President, Legal and Assistant Secretary, where he built and led a global legal team and was responsible for the structuring and legal execution of Gilead's acquisitions, strategic collaborations, and licensing deals since 2006. Earlier in his career, he worked for six years with Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP in their mergers and acquisitions and corporate finance practices.
Jeanette M. Bjorkquist, Principal Financial Officer
Ms. Bjorkquist was appointed as the company's principal financial officer in June 2025, in addition to her existing role as principal accounting officer. She has been with Assembly Biosciences since 2019, most recently serving as VP, Finance.
William Delaney, PhD, Chief Scientific Officer
Dr. Delaney joined Assembly Biosciences as Chief Scientific Officer, Virology in May 2020. Prior to Assembly, he served for 20 years at Gilead Sciences as Executive Director, Biology. During his time at Gilead, he headed the Viral Hepatitis & Herpes Discovery Biology Groups and was the Research Therapeutic Area Head for HBV, contributing to the development of several marketed products for HBV and HCV.
Anuj Gaggar, MD, PhD, Chief Medical Officer
Dr. Gaggar joined Assembly Biosciences as Chief Medical Officer in November 2023. He previously co-founded and served as CEO of Arrive Bio, a private early-stage biotechnology company. Before Arrive Bio, Dr. Gaggar spent nearly 10 years as a senior member of the clinical research team at Gilead Sciences, where he led the HBV cure development program, including the design and execution of global clinical trials.
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Key Risks to Assembly Biosciences (ASMB)
- Clinical Trial Failure and Regulatory Hurdles: As a clinical-stage biotechnology company, Assembly Biosciences faces the inherent and significant risk that its product candidates, including Vebicorvir, ABI-H3733, and ABI-4334 for HBV, and other candidates like ABI-5366, ABI-6250, and ABI-1179 for other viral infections, may fail to demonstrate sufficient safety or efficacy in ongoing or future clinical trials. Even if trials are successful, there is no guarantee that these candidates will receive the necessary regulatory approvals for commercialization. The challenging nature of achieving a "functional cure" for chronic Hepatitis B, along with a competitive landscape where other companies are also developing novel treatments, further compounds the difficulty in differentiating its products and securing market acceptance.
- Financial Sustainability and Funding Risk: Assembly Biosciences operates with significant financial challenges inherent to the costly and lengthy process of drug development. The company has reported ongoing net losses and decreasing cash and cash equivalents, indicating a rapid cash burn. Maintaining sufficient financial resources and securing additional funding are critical to continue its extensive research activities and clinical studies. An Altman Z-Score suggesting financial distress highlights the potential risk of bankruptcy if further funding is not secured or if product development is delayed.
- Reliance on Collaborations and Partnership Outcomes: The company's strategic collaboration agreements, particularly with Gilead Sciences, are crucial for advancing its pipeline and supporting its financial position. There is a risk that these collaborators may not exercise their opt-in rights for further program development, or that the anticipated financial and strategic benefits from these partnerships, including equity investments and milestones, may not be fully realized. The success and continuation of these collaborations are vital for the company's long-term strategy and product development.
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Assembly Biosciences (ASMB) is a clinical-stage biotechnology company whose revenue is primarily driven by strategic research and development collaborations, rather than commercial product sales. Over the next 2-3 years, the company's future revenue growth is expected to be propelled by the continued advancement of its pipeline candidates and the associated payments from its partnerships.
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Assembly Biosciences:
- Milestone Payments and Research Funding from Existing Collaborations: Assembly Biosciences generates a significant portion of its revenue through collaboration agreements, most notably with Gilead Sciences, Inc.. As its investigational drug candidates for Hepatitis B (HBV), Herpes Simplex Virus (HSV), and Hepatitis Delta Virus (HDV) progress through various clinical trial phases (e.g., Phase 1b, Phase 2), the company is positioned to receive milestone payments and ongoing research funding from these partnerships. The increase in collaborative revenue from Gilead has been noted in recent financial reports.
- Advancement and Potential Future Commercialization of HSV Programs: The company's HSV pipeline, including ABI-5366 and ABI-1179 (contributed by Gilead), are helicase-primase inhibitors currently in Phase 1b clinical studies for recurrent genital herpes. Positive interim data for ABI-5366 has been reported, and Assembly Biosciences anticipates initiating a Phase 2 study for ABI-5366 in mid-2026. Gilead has licensed these HSV programs, indicating the potential for future royalties and further milestone payments if these candidates successfully advance towards commercialization.
- Progression of the Next-Generation HBV Program (ABI-4334): Assembly Biosciences is advancing ABI-4334, a next-generation capsid assembly modulator designed to disrupt the HBV replication cycle, which is in a Phase 1b clinical study. Efficacy, safety, and pharmacokinetic data from the ongoing Phase 1b study for ABI-4334 were anticipated in the first half of 2025. Successful clinical development of this potent candidate could trigger additional collaboration opportunities, licensing deals, or lead to eventual market entry, contributing to revenue growth.
- Advancement of the HDV Program (ABI-6250): The company's pipeline also includes ABI-6250, an orally bioavailable Hepatitis Delta Virus entry inhibitor, which is in a Phase 1a clinical study. Data from the Phase 1a study in healthy participants for ABI-6250 was expected in Q3 2025. Positive results and subsequent progression of this program into later clinical stages could attract further investment or collaboration funding, serving as another driver of future revenue.
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Share Issuance
- In August 2025, Assembly Biosciences completed a registered underwritten offering that resulted in approximately $122.0 million in net proceeds after estimated offering expenses. This offering included 5,591,840 shares of common stock and pre-funded warrants for up to 1,040,820 shares, along with accompanying Class A and Class B warrants.
- Concurrently with the registered offering in August 2025, the company completed a private placement with Gilead Sciences, Inc., issuing 2,295,920 shares of common stock and accompanying warrants for approximately $45.0 million.
- The number of outstanding shares increased from 4.58 million at the end of December 2023 to 7.66 million as per recent financial reports, reflecting significant share issuance and including a 1:12 reverse stock split that occurred on February 12, 2024.
Inbound Investments
- Assembly Biosciences raised $175 million in gross proceeds from equity financings in August 2025, which included participation from new and existing investors such as Commodore Capital and Blackstone Multi-Asset.
- Gilead Sciences, Inc. made a strategic inbound investment by purchasing 2,295,920 shares of common stock and accompanying warrants for approximately $45 million in August 2025.
- Revenue from collaborative research with Gilead Sciences, Inc. increased to $9.4 million for the first quarter of 2025 and $10.8 million for the third quarter of 2025, reflecting increased collaboration funding from an amended agreement in December 2024.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Assembly Biosciences Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Would You Still Hold Assembly Biosciences Stock If It Fell Another 30%? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 41.62 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.4 |
| Rev LTM | 486 |
| Op Inc LTM | -120 |
| FCF LTM | -57 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -133 |
| CFO LTM | -49 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -93 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 69.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 613.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 90.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 30.4% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -5.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -26.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -353.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -36.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -277.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -37.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -281.5% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Developing innovative therapeutics targeting serious viral diseases | 72 | 29 | 7 | 6 | 79 |
| Total | 72 | 29 | 7 | 6 | 79 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Developing innovative therapeutics targeting serious viral diseases | -6 | -40 |
| Total | -6 | -40 |
| $ Mil | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Developing innovative therapeutics targeting serious viral diseases | 137 | 102 | 191 | 283 | 98 |
| Total | 137 | 102 | 191 | 283 | 98 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $26.68 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/17/2010 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -30.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $25.55 | $29.11 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | 4.4% | -8.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 55.6% | 57.8% |
| Downside Capture | 104.71 | 169.01 |
| Upside Capture | 36.65 | 155.28 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 17.2% | 29.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.28 | 0.41 | 0.82 | 1.24 | 1.32 | 1.04 |
| Up Beta | 2.22 | 2.81 | 2.23 | 1.75 | 1.69 | 0.81 |
| Down Beta | -0.33 | 0.02 | -0.17 | -0.27 | 0.35 | 1.37 |
| Up Capture | 82% | -43% | 51% | 154% | 218% | 129% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 20 | 31 | 64 | 131 | 381 |
| Down Capture | 215% | 18% | 102% | 150% | 130% | 102% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 23 | 32 | 62 | 121 | 368 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ASMB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASMB | 37.5% | 58.4% | 0.76 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 28.7% | 15.5% | 1.42 | 21.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 23.3% | 12.8% | 1.36 | 29.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 28.5% | 28.4% | 0.87 | 20.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 32.9% | 19.8% | 1.32 | -11.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.2% | 13.8% | 0.72 | 9.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -44.2% | 42.9% | -1.23 | 22.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ASMB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASMB | -8.8% | 68.9% | 0.13 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 6.2% | 15.0% | 0.23 | 20.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.2% | 0.61 | 23.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.6% | 18.6% | 0.81 | 9.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 19.6% | 0.31 | 2.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.3% | 18.9% | 0.02 | 20.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.8% | 53.0% | 0.35 | 13.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ASMB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASMB | -9.5% | 71.0% | 0.19 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 10.1% | 16.6% | 0.49 | 25.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 27.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.2% | 0.61 | 6.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 18.0% | 0.33 | 8.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 21.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.2% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 10.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/10/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -3.8% | -2.0% | -27.1% |
| 3/19/2026 | 3.5% | 4.9% | 2.3% |
| 11/10/2025 | 3.3% | 13.3% | 11.9% |
| 8/6/2025 | 9.2% | 27.4% | 22.6% |
| 5/8/2025 | 5.0% | 7.2% | 37.8% |
| 3/20/2025 | 3.0% | 2.0% | -7.0% |
| 11/7/2024 | -4.1% | -2.6% | -4.6% |
| 8/8/2024 | -2.8% | 5.0% | 24.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 10 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 3.3% | 7.2% | 17.2% |
| Median Negative | -3.8% | -7.1% | -13.3% |
| Max Positive | 9.2% | 27.4% | 49.7% |
| Max Negative | -69.4% | -65.2% | -61.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -3.8% | -2.0% | -27.1% |
| 3/19/2026 | 3.5% | 4.9% | 2.3% |
| 11/10/2025 | 3.3% | 13.3% | 11.9% |
| 8/6/2025 | 9.2% | 27.4% | 22.6% |
| 5/8/2025 | 5.0% | 7.2% | 37.8% |
| 3/20/2025 | 3.0% | 2.0% | -7.0% |
| 11/7/2024 | -4.1% | -2.6% | -4.6% |
| 8/8/2024 | -2.8% | 5.0% | 24.1% |
| 5/8/2024 | 1.2% | 13.7% | 11.1% |
| 11/8/2023 | -12.5% | -13.3% | -10.8% |
| 8/9/2023 | 0.9% | -10.4% | -9.0% |
| 5/4/2023 | -1.0% | 1.9% | 5.8% |
| 11/8/2022 | -4.4% | 1.5% | -16.1% |
| 8/9/2022 | 0.5% | -1.4% | -12.0% |
| 5/12/2022 | 6.2% | 12.4% | 32.4% |
| 3/10/2022 | -1.3% | 11.8% | 49.7% |
| 11/4/2021 | -1.9% | -8.8% | -31.2% |
| 8/5/2021 | 0.3% | -1.9% | -10.7% |
| 5/6/2021 | 3.6% | -0.8% | 3.1% |
| 2/25/2021 | -8.1% | -16.3% | -19.2% |
| 11/5/2020 | -69.4% | -65.2% | -61.5% |
| 8/5/2020 | -0.3% | -7.1% | -14.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 10 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 3.3% | 7.2% | 17.2% |
| Median Negative | -3.8% | -7.1% | -13.3% |
| Max Positive | 9.2% | 27.4% | 49.7% |
| Max Negative | -69.4% | -65.2% | -61.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/11/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/25/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/08/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/04/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/07/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/05/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/27/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2028 Cash Runway | 2,028 | ||||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/19/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2028 Cash Runway | |||||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/10/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Cash Runway | |||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/18/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bjorkquist, Jeanette M | PFO and PAO | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 23.25 | 29 | 674 | 338,520 | Form |
| 2 | Bjorkquist, Jeanette M | PFO and PAO | Direct | Sell | 3312026 | 26.69 | 328 | 8,755 | 295,978 | Form |
| 3 | White, Nicole S | Chief Manufacturing Officer | Direct | Sell | 3312026 | 26.69 | 197 | 5,258 | 1,000,207 | Form |
| 4 | Gilead, Sciences, Inc | Direct | Buy | 10032025 | 0.00 | 2,295,920 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bjorkquist, Jeanette M | PFO and PAO | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 23.25 | 29 | 674 | 338,520 | Form |
| 2 | Bjorkquist, Jeanette M | PFO and PAO | Direct | Sell | 3312026 | 26.69 | 328 | 8,755 | 295,978 | Form |
| 3 | White, Nicole S | Chief Manufacturing Officer | Direct | Sell | 3312026 | 26.69 | 197 | 5,258 | 1,000,207 | Form |
| 4 | Gilead, Sciences, Inc | Direct | Buy | 10032025 | 0.00 | 2,295,920 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 8, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
| Active Manager |
|---|
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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