Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 23%, Dividend Yield is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 19%, FCF Yield is 18%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -54%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -81%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 264%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 83%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 83%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.25
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -21%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -29%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 38%
  Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 25%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Real Estate Finance & Investment. Themes include Multifamily Housing Finance, and Agency Lending.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 23%, Dividend Yield is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 19%, FCF Yield is 18%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 83%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 83%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 38%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Real Estate Finance & Investment. Themes include Multifamily Housing Finance, and Agency Lending.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -54%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -81%
5 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.25
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 264%
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -21%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -29%
8 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 25%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ABR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the approximate -21.3% stock movement for Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:

1. Decline in Q3 2025 Profitability: Arbor Realty Trust reported a year-over-year decline in both GAAP net income and distributable earnings for the third quarter of 2025, which was released on October 31, 2025. GAAP net income decreased to $0.20 per diluted share from $0.31 in the prior year, and distributable earnings fell to $0.35 per share from $0.43. The market reacted negatively to these results, extending a trend of weakness for the stock.

2. Significant Drop in Net Interest Income: The company experienced a substantial decrease in net interest income (NII), which dropped to $38.3 million in Q3 2025 from $68.7 million in Q2 2025 and $88.8 million in Q3 2024. This decline points to significant challenges in the core lending business.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ABR Return10%39%-21%33%3%-27%22%
Peers Return-14%10%-19%2%6%2%-15%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ABR Win Rate83%75%42%58%58%40% 
Peers Win Rate53%57%50%45%55%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ABR Max Drawdown-71%-3%-33%-17%-20%-33% 
Peers Max Drawdown-64%-6%-34%-22%-11%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DX, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventABRS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-50.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven100.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-73.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven275.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven307 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-22.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven29.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven57 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-98.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven5770.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to DX, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY


In The Past

Arbor Realty Trust's stock fell -50.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/1/2021. A -50.2% loss requires a 100.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Arbor Realty Trust (ABR)

Better Bets than Arbor Realty Trust (ABR)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ABR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
ABR_6302025_Short_Squeeze06302025ABRArbor Realty TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-11.6%-11.6%-18.2%
ABR_12312024_Short_Squeeze12312024ABRArbor Realty TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-16.2%-27.2%-32.7%
ABR_6302024_Short_Squeeze06302024ABRArbor Realty TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
1.1%-15.6%-29.6%
ABR_12312023_Short_Squeeze12312023ABRArbor Realty TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
0.6%2.0%-20.2%
ABR_4302023_Short_Squeeze04302023ABRArbor Realty TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
16.6%28.5%-4.9%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
ABR_6302025_Short_Squeeze06302025ABRArbor Realty TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-11.6%-11.6%-18.2%
ABR_12312024_Short_Squeeze12312024ABRArbor Realty TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-16.2%-27.2%-32.7%
ABR_6302024_Short_Squeeze06302024ABRArbor Realty TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
1.1%-15.6%-29.6%
ABR_12312023_Short_Squeeze12312023ABRArbor Realty TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
0.6%2.0%-20.2%
ABR_4302023_Short_Squeeze04302023ABRArbor Realty TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
16.6%28.5%-4.9%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Arbor Realty Trust

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ABRDXIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameArbor Re.Dynex Ca.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
Mkt Price9.0913.898.192.784.7322.828.64
Mkt Cap1.81.90.60.50.115.01.2
Rev LTM524230722271,703151
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM43612215947251,953298
FCF 3Y Avg4587119632951,260262
CFO LTM43612215947252,857298
CFO 3Y Avg4587119632951,976262

Growth & Margins

ABRDXIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameArbor Re.Dynex Ca.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
Rev Chg LTM-21.0%87.1%-29.9%-73.3%-3.5%473.5%-12.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-3.2%63.4%241.0%-52.8%2.5%143.3%33.0%
Rev Chg Q-28.6%309.0%27.8%-29.1%-9.2%637.1%9.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-7.9%113.8%21.1%-45.4%-2.2%81.6%9.4%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM83.2%52.8%220.1%2,181.7%71.0%167.8%125.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg72.9%77.6%790.7%851.6%70.9%-77.6%
FCF/Rev LTM83.2%52.8%220.1%2,181.7%71.0%114.7%98.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg72.9%77.6%790.7%851.6%70.8%-77.6%

Valuation

ABRDXIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameArbor Re.Dynex Ca.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
Mkt Cap1.81.90.60.50.115.01.2
P/S4.57.37.129.38.87.87.5
P/EBIT-------
P/E12.29.09.6-2.011.98.99.3
P/CFO5.413.73.21.312.44.65.0
Total Yield22.8%11.1%10.4%-27.7%16.8%11.3%11.2%
Dividend Yield14.6%0.0%0.0%21.4%8.4%0.0%4.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg17.0%6.8%40.1%36.2%8.5%11.4%14.2%
D/E2.80.00.06.00.22.21.2
Net D/E2.6-0.3-0.15.70.22.21.2

Returns

ABRDXIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameArbor Re.Dynex Ca.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
1M Rtn-4.2%5.9%8.6%-4.1%-4.8%7.1%0.9%
3M Rtn-20.7%14.6%8.1%-32.2%-10.4%9.9%-1.1%
6M Rtn-0.2%24.9%19.5%-29.7%-3.4%29.0%9.7%
12M Rtn-27.3%30.4%19.1%-56.6%-6.1%33.1%6.5%
3Y Rtn-8.9%60.5%3.7%-68.6%5.7%58.4%4.7%
1M Excs Rtn-4.1%6.0%8.7%-4.1%-4.8%7.2%0.9%
3M Excs Rtn-26.2%7.8%2.0%-38.0%-15.6%3.0%-6.8%
6M Excs Rtn-14.9%10.1%4.8%-44.5%-18.1%14.3%-5.0%
12M Excs Rtn-43.5%15.8%4.5%-70.9%-17.7%18.2%-6.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-80.6%-8.7%-65.4%-141.0%-64.9%-8.9%-65.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Structured Business14,13815,62812,9805,8764,856
Agency Business1,6011,4112,0941,7851,383
Total15,73917,03915,0747,6616,239


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity48,027,712
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120254.5%
Average Daily Volume4,267,888
Days-to-Cover Short Interest11.25
Basic Shares Quantity193,748,462
Short % of Basic Shares24.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251031202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025801202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025502202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024221202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241101202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024503202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023220202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231027202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023728202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022217202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022729202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021218202210-K 12/31/2021