Tearsheet

Alto Ingredients (ALTO)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $2.89 | Market Cap: $215.6 Mil
Sector: Materials | Industry: Specialty Chemicals

Alto Ingredients (ALTO)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $2.89
Market Cap: $215.6 Mil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Specialty Chemicals

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production.
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -25 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.7%
1  Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -92%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 127%
2   Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 187%
3   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -12%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.6%
4   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.1%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.4%
5   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -82%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production.
1 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -92%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -25 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.7%
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 127%
5 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 187%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -12%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.6%
7 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.1%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.4%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -82%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ALTO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

I am unable to provide key points for Alto Ingredients (ALTO) stock movement for the period between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, as this time frame is in the future and I do not have access to future market data or news events.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ALTO Return735%-11%-40%-8%-41%64%294%
Peers Return19%41%-40%6%21%13%46%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ALTO Win Rate58%33%50%50%42%40% 
Peers Win Rate53%62%35%47%48%46% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ALTO Max Drawdown-65%-18%-44%-58%-55%-50% 
Peers Max Drawdown-52%-4%-55%-29%-32%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FUL, GEVO, FSI, LOOP, SHW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventALTOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-84.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven559.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-72.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven259.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven78 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-95.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven2037.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven329 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-98.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven8013.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to FUL, GEVO, FSI, LOOP, SHW


In The Past

Alto Ingredients's stock fell -84.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/10/2021. A -84.8% loss requires a 559.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Alto Ingredients (ALTO)

Better Bets than Alto Ingredients (ALTO)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ALTO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Alto Ingredients

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ALTOFULGEVOFSILOOPSHWMedian
NameAlto Ing.H.B. Ful.Gevo Flexible.Loop Ind.Sherwin-. 
Mkt Price2.8058.922.336.831.07339.244.81
Mkt Cap0.23.20.50.10.183.50.4
Rev LTM9333,50280371123,276507
Op Inc LTM-25349-496-13,6802
FCF LTM-13121-920-12,426-0
FCF 3Y Avg-28220-1091-162,305-7
CFO LTM-10242-565-13,2942
CFO 3Y Avg-5348-556-143,2250

Growth & Margins

ALTOFULGEVOFSILOOPSHWMedian
NameAlto Ing.H.B. Ful.Gevo Flexible.Loop Ind.Sherwin-. 
Rev Chg LTM-12.7%-1.3%341.8%-1.5%11,012.0%1.0%-0.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-11.7%-1.7%729.7%-2.0%3,661.4%2.4%0.4%
Rev Chg Q-7.6%-2.8%725.3%8.0%-100.0%3.2%0.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.9%-0.7%90.8%2.3%-0.2%0.8%0.3%
Op Mgn LTM-2.7%10.0%-60.6%16.0%-13.3%15.8%3.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-3.0%10.5%-494.2%12.9%-13,399.3%15.8%3.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.8%0.2%126.0%3.2%16.5%-0.0%1.7%
CFO/Rev LTM-1.1%6.9%-70.4%13.4%-8.5%14.2%2.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-0.4%9.8%-303.8%14.1%-12,027.4%13.9%4.7%
FCF/Rev LTM-1.4%3.5%-114.6%1.0%-10.9%10.4%-0.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-2.3%6.2%-691.7%3.4%-13,970.5%10.0%0.5%

Valuation

ALTOFULGEVOFSILOOPSHWMedian
NameAlto Ing.H.B. Ful.Gevo Flexible.Loop Ind.Sherwin-. 
Mkt Cap0.23.20.50.10.183.50.4
P/S0.10.93.81.66.43.72.7
P/EBIT-1.510.6-6.410.5-6.422.84.5
P/E-1.328.5-5.320.2-6.133.19.4
P/CFO-8.313.5-5.412.3-74.425.93.4
Total Yield-77.9%4.7%-19.0%5.0%-16.5%3.9%-6.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.9%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-16.1%5.7%-49.1%4.4%-12.5%2.9%-4.8%
D/E1.60.60.60.10.00.20.4
Net D/E1.30.60.4-0.0-0.10.20.3

Returns

ALTOFULGEVOFSILOOPSHWMedian
NameAlto Ing.H.B. Ful.Gevo Flexible.Loop Ind.Sherwin-. 
1M Rtn169.2%2.7%2.6%-23.0%-35.2%-1.6%0.5%
3M Rtn145.6%0.3%42.9%-31.1%-32.3%-6.3%-3.0%
6M Rtn187.1%6.0%104.4%56.7%-31.8%-5.9%31.3%
12M Rtn94.4%-21.4%57.4%78.7%-22.7%-13.4%22.0%
3Y Rtn-19.1%-23.8%8.9%130.6%-61.1%35.2%-5.1%
1M Excs Rtn169.3%2.7%2.7%-23.0%-35.1%-1.6%0.5%
3M Excs Rtn138.1%-8.8%37.6%-36.8%-41.7%-12.4%-10.6%
6M Excs Rtn172.4%-8.7%89.7%41.9%-46.6%-20.6%16.6%
12M Excs Rtn79.6%-35.7%27.7%54.9%-41.3%-27.4%0.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-92.1%-94.3%-55.1%68.2%-132.9%-30.9%-73.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Pekin Campus production721748689461483
Marketing and distribution275241391258357
Western production224344140179585
Corporate and other16160  
Intersegment eliminations-13-14-12  
Total1,2231,3361,2088971,425


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Pekin Campus production251  234229
Marketing and distribution101  89130
Western production58  102230
Corporate and other44    
Corporate assets   5124
Total454  477612


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity992,450
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025127.8%
Average Daily Volume4,940,016
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1
Basic Shares Quantity74,611,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025509202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024313202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023314202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022314202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021315202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211112202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Sneed James RChief Commercial Officer8142025Buy1.063,1763,364458,038Form