Alto Ingredients (ALTO)
Market Price (10/28/2026): $3.71 | Market Cap: $287.8 MilSector: Materials | Industry: Specialty Chemicals
Alto Ingredients (ALTO)
Market Price (10/28/2026): $3.71Market Cap: $287.8 MilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Specialty Chemicals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%, FCF Yield is 18% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -36% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -83% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 251% Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -9.7% Key risksALTO key risks include [1] significant exposure to the volatility of commodity prices for its raw materials and finished products and [2] uncertainty surrounding its ability to secure crucial tax credits, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%, FCF Yield is 18% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -83% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 251% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -9.7% |
| Key risksALTO key risks include [1] significant exposure to the volatility of commodity prices for its raw materials and finished products and [2] uncertainty surrounding its ability to secure crucial tax credits, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Alto Ingredients (ALTO) stock has lost about 35% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fear of Dilution from At-the-Market (ATM) Offering.
Despite reporting stronger-than-expected fiscal Q2 2026 results with earnings per share (EPS) of $0.15 and revenue of $245.7 million, Alto Ingredients' stock experienced a sell-off, declining by more than 15% in early August 2026. This decline was largely attributed to the company's announcement of a $50 million at-the-market (ATM) offering, which raised concerns among investors about potential share dilution.
2. Increased Corn Prices Impacting Ethanol Crush Margins.
A significant macroeconomic headwind impacting Alto Ingredients was the spike in corn prices. The December 2026 corn futures rose to $5.29 per bushel, a notable increase from $4.44 per bushel in fiscal Q2 2026. This surge in feedstock costs is projected to compress the ethanol crush margin per gallon, pushing it towards zero from approximately $0.33, thereby severely impacting the company's profitability expectations for subsequent quarters.
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Alto Ingredients (ALTO) stock has lost about 35% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fear of Dilution from At-the-Market (ATM) Offering.
Despite reporting stronger-than-expected fiscal Q2 2026 results with earnings per share (EPS) of $0.15 and revenue of $245.7 million, Alto Ingredients' stock experienced a sell-off, declining by more than 15% in early August 2026. This decline was largely attributed to the company's announcement of a $50 million at-the-market (ATM) offering, which raised concerns among investors about potential share dilution.
2. Increased Corn Prices Impacting Ethanol Crush Margins.
A significant macroeconomic headwind impacting Alto Ingredients was the spike in corn prices. The December 2026 corn futures rose to $5.29 per bushel, a notable increase from $4.44 per bushel in fiscal Q2 2026. This surge in feedstock costs is projected to compress the ethanol crush margin per gallon, pushing it towards zero from approximately $0.33, thereby severely impacting the company's profitability expectations for subsequent quarters.
3. Negative Shift in Forward Earnings Expectations.
Following the fiscal Q2 2026 report, analysts adjusted their forward-looking earnings projections downward, reflecting a more cautious outlook for Alto Ingredients. The consensus EPS for fiscal Q3 2026 is anticipated to range from $0.07 to $0.10, a considerable decrease compared to the $0.15 EPS reported in fiscal Q2 2026. Furthermore, annual earnings are projected to decline by approximately 28.21% in the coming year, from $0.39 to $0.28 per share, contributing to a negative sentiment regarding the company's future financial performance.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -34.7% change in ALTO stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -62.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.70 | 3.72 | -34.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 916 | 943 | 3.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.2% | 5.5% | 72.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.6 | 5.4 | -62.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 75 | 76 | -1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -34.7% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALTO | -34.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.1% | 11.1% |
| Sector (XLB) | 1.9% | -0.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -23.1% change in ALTO stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -80.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.84 | 3.72 | -23.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 918 | 943 | 2.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.5% | 5.5% | 279.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.1 | 5.4 | -80.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 75 | 76 | -1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -23.1% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALTO | -23.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 18.7% | 11.9% |
| Sector (XLB) | 4.0% | 2.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 244.4% change in ALTO stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 245.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.08 | 3.72 | 244.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 933 | 943 | 1.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.3 | 245.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 75 | 76 | -1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 244.4% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALTO | 244.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.5% | 3.9% |
| Sector (XLB) | 17.1% | 1.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -15.8% change in ALTO stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -27.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.42 | 3.72 | -15.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,297 | 943 | -27.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.3 | 0.3 | 19.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 73 | 76 | -2.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -15.8% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALTO | -15.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.2% | 11.3% |
| Sector (XLB) | 39.0% | 16.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ALTO Return | -11% | -40% | -8% | -41% | 85% | 27% | -33% |
| Peers Return | 75% | 9% | 14% | -38% | 15% | 19% | 84% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ALTO Win Rate | 33% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 57% | 52% | 30% | 60% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 40% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ALTO Max Drawdown | -45% | -63% | -66% | -56% | -58% | -42% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -31% | -27% | -44% | -43% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MGPI, GPRE, ANDE, REX, ADM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ALTO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -52.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 111.2% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 204 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -50.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 101.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 849 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 173.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 75 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -30.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1291 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -60.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 155.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 65 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -62.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 168.0% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 580 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Alto Ingredients's stock fell -52.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 111.2% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | ALTO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -52.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 111.2% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 204 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -50.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 101.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 849 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 173.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 75 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -30.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1291 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -60.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 155.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 65 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -62.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 168.0% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 580 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -63.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 174.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 307 days | 62 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.4% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 20 days | 1 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -72.4% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 263.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 123 days |
In The Past
Alto Ingredients's stock fell -52.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 111.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Alto Ingredients (ALTO)
Alto Ingredients, Inc. (ALTO) is a U.S. company specializing in the production and marketing of specialty alcohols and essential ingredients. The company operates through three core segments: Marketing and Distribution, Pekin Production, and Other Production, reflecting its involvement from manufacturing to the delivery of its products.
ALTO's primary offerings include a diverse range of specialty alcohols used in products such as mouthwash, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, hand sanitizers, and disinfectants for health, home, and beauty markets. It also produces grain neutral spirits for alcoholic beverages and flavor extracts. Beyond alcohols, the company supplies essential ingredients like dried yeast, corn gluten meal, and distillers grains for commercial animal feed and pet food applications. Additionally, Alto Ingredients produces fuel-grade ethanol for transportation fuel and distillers corn oil, which serves as a biodiesel feedstock.
The company serves a broad customer base across multiple industries. Specialty alcohols and grain neutral spirits are sold to manufacturers in health, beauty, and food and beverage sectors. Essential ingredient feed products are supplied to dairies, feedlots, and pet food companies. Fuel-grade ethanol is primarily sold to integrated oil companies and gasoline marketers, while corn oil is purchased by poultry and biodiesel customers. Alto Ingredients operates production facilities across Illinois, Oregon, and Idaho.
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1. Think of it as a specialized Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), focused on converting corn into a diverse array of alcohols (for fuel, beverages, health, and cleaning products) and essential animal feed ingredients.
2. Like an Ingredion, but with a stronger emphasis on producing specialty alcohols and fuel ethanol in addition to various animal feed products, all from corn.
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- Specialty Alcohols: Alcohols used in health, home, and beauty applications such as mouthwash, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, and sanitizers.
- Grain Neutral Spirits: High-purity alcohol used in alcoholic beverages, flavor extracts, and vinegar.
- Essential Ingredients: A range of products including corn germ for corn oils, carbon dioxide for food and beverage, and various feeds (dried yeast, corn gluten meal, corn gluten feed, distillers grains, liquid feed) for commercial animal and pet food applications.
- Fuel-Grade Ethanol: Ethanol primarily used as transportation fuel.
- Distillers Corn Oil: Oil utilized as a feedstock for biodiesel production.
- Logistics Services: Provides transportation, storage, and delivery services for its products.
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Alto Ingredients, Inc. (ALTO) primarily sells its products to other companies rather than directly to individuals. The provided company description does not list specific customer company names. However, it identifies the following major categories of business customers:
- Integrated Oil Companies and Gasoline Marketers: These entities purchase fuel-grade ethanol from Alto Ingredients for use as transportation fuel.
- Dairies, Feedlots, and Poultry Customers: These agricultural businesses acquire essential ingredient feed products (including dried yeast, corn gluten meal, corn gluten feed, distillers grains, and liquid feed) and corn oil for commercial animal feed and pet food applications.
- Biodiesel Customers: These companies purchase distillers corn oil from Alto Ingredients, utilizing it as a feedstock for biodiesel production.
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Bryon McGregor, President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director
Bryon McGregor has over 35 years of executive leadership, industrial project management, and finance experience. He joined Alto Ingredients in 2008 as Vice President Finance/Treasurer and was appointed Chief Financial Officer in 2009. In August 2023, he was named President and Chief Executive Officer. During his tenure as CFO, Mr. McGregor led multiple financings, including raising over $640 million, integrated two acquisitions that tripled the company's production capacity, and implemented cost reduction programs. His experience also includes developing and managing capital financing for over 40 global industrial and infrastructure projects valued in excess of $12 billion. He previously served as Brokerage Treasurer for E*TRADE Financial, overseeing international and U.S. brokerage treasury operations, corporate finance, and investor relations.
Robert Olander, Chief Financial Officer
Robert Olander, CPA, possesses over 20 years of public company accounting, treasury, and finance experience. He was appointed Chief Financial Officer in August 2023. Mr. Olander has served Alto Ingredients for over 16 years, with increasing responsibilities, most recently as Vice President, Corporate Controller. His career began at Deloitte & Touche in audit and assurance, where he worked with companies such as ConAgra, Berkshire Hathaway, and Union Pacific. He also held roles as Controller and Business Manager at Hampton Distribution Companies and supervised audit and consulting at James Marta and Company.
Jim Sneed, Chief Commercial Officer
Jim Sneed has over 20 years of experience in various senior management and executive positions within the ethanol industry. He joined Alto Ingredients in 2012. Prior to his time at Alto Ingredients, Mr. Sneed served as Vice President – Ethanol Marketing & Trading for Hawkeye Gold, LLC.
Auste Graham, Chief Legal Officer and Secretary
Auste Graham brings over 15 years of legal experience across multiple industries, including chemicals, packaging, and corporate securities. She joined Alto Ingredients in 2022. Previously, Ms. Graham served as Vice President, Legal, for Essentra plc, where she was responsible for all legal and compliance affairs in the Americas.
Todd Benton, Chief Operating Officer
Todd Benton has 30 years of operations and leadership experience in corn wet milling, high-quality alcohol, and dry grind fuel ethanol production. He also has over 25 years of experience specifically at the Pekin facilities.
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The key risks to Alto Ingredients (ALTO) are primarily centered around the inherent volatility of its markets, the significant influence of government policies on its operations, and its financial stability given a history of losses.
- Commodity Price Volatility: Alto Ingredients' profitability is highly susceptible to fluctuations in the prices of its key inputs, such as corn and natural gas, and its outputs, including ethanol, specialty alcohols, and various essential ingredients like distillers grains and corn oil. Adverse movements in these commodity prices can significantly impact the company's margins and overall financial performance.
- Regulatory and Legislative Changes: A substantial portion of Alto Ingredients' business, particularly its renewable fuels segment, is subject to government mandates, environmental regulations, and tax incentives, such as the Renewable Fuel Standard and Section 45Z clean fuel credits. Any unfavorable changes, uncertainties, or shifts in these governmental policies or a broader move away from combustion fuels could negatively affect demand for its products, increase compliance costs, or alter the economic viability of its operations.
- Financial Health and Debt Obligations: While Alto Ingredients achieved a return to profitability in 2025, it has a documented history of losses and negative cash flow. Management cautions that further losses could impede business expansion and operations. Additionally, the company carries debt, primarily used for capital improvements, which could restrict its ability to pursue new opportunities, fund ongoing operations, or service its obligations if project returns do not meet expectations or if profitability is not sustained.
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The rapid acceleration in the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and the increasing focus on other non-liquid or alternative transportation fuels poses a clear emerging threat to Alto Ingredients' fuel-grade ethanol business. As demand for gasoline declines, so too will the primary market for corn-based ethanol, potentially leading to reduced demand and pricing pressure. This represents a fundamental shift in the transportation energy landscape.
Another emerging threat is the post-pandemic normalization of demand for specialty alcohols used in hand sanitizers and disinfectants. Following a significant surge during the COVID-19 pandemic, the market for these products is likely experiencing a period of oversupply and declining demand, which could lead to reduced sales volumes and price erosion for Alto Ingredients' specialty alcohol segment.
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Alto Ingredients, Inc. (ALTO) operates in several addressable markets with varying sizes:
- Specialty Alcohols: The global industrial alcohol market, which includes specialty alcohols used in pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, hand sanitizers, disinfectants, and cleaners, was valued at approximately USD 168.21 billion in 2025. It is projected to reach around USD 248.25 billion by 2034, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.4% from 2025 to 2034. The Asia Pacific region holds the largest market share in this segment.
- Grain Neutral Spirits: The global extra neutral alcohol (ENA) market, which encompasses grain neutral spirits used in alcoholic beverages, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and industrial applications, is projected to reach approximately USD 15.2 billion in 2024 and grow to around USD 21.7 billion by 2030, with an estimated CAGR of 6.1% over the forecast period. Separately, the global grain alcohol market was valued at about USD 13.73 billion in 2024 and is expected to surpass USD 21.97 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 4.5% from 2025 to 2034. North America is expected to dominate this market. The U.S. grain alcohol market alone is anticipated to exceed USD 4.15 billion by 2030.
- Corn Oils (from corn germ): The global corn oil market was valued at approximately USD 6.94 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 13.94 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 8.19%. North America held the largest share of 52.57% in the global corn oil market in 2025. The U.S. corn oil market is projected to reach an estimated value of USD 3.67 billion by 2032.
- Carbon Dioxide (for food and beverage markets): Null
- Essential Ingredients (dried yeast, corn gluten meal, corn gluten feed, distillers grains, and liquid feed for commercial animal feed and pet food): Null
- Fuel-Grade Ethanol: The global fuel ethanol market was valued at USD 100.9 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 144.3 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 5.1%. North America dominated the market in 2023 with a 56.4% share, and the U.S. alone accounted for 48.4% of the global market. In terms of volume, the global ethanol market size is estimated at 108.03 billion liters in 2025 and is expected to reach 140.19 billion liters by 2030, at a CAGR of 5.35%.
- Distillers Corn Oil (biodiesel feedstock): The global distillers corn oil market is projected to grow from USD 6.12 billion in 2025 to USD 8.13 billion by 2031, with a CAGR of 4.85%. This growth is primarily driven by the increasing demand for low-carbon feedstocks in the biodiesel and renewable diesel sectors. The U.S. biodiesel market, which utilizes distillers corn oil as a feedstock, is calculated at USD 16.08 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach approximately USD 24.63 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 4.85%.
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- Strategic Shift to High-Value Specialty Alcohols and Essential Ingredients: The company is actively repositioning its product portfolio away from lower-margin commodity fuel ethanol towards higher-value specialty alcohols and essential ingredients. These include products for the health, home, beauty, food, and pharmaceutical markets, as well as essential ingredients like corn germ for corn oils and carbon dioxide for food and beverage markets. This strategic realignment aims to diversify revenue streams into more stable and profitable segments.
- Monetization of 45Z Clean Fuel Tax Credits: The extension of the Section 45Z tax credit through 2029 is a significant driver of future earnings. Alto Ingredients is focused on lowering its carbon intensity scores across its facilities to maximize the value of these credits. Management anticipates generating approximately $15 million in net proceeds from 45Z tax credits in 2026.
- Expansion of Renewable Fuel Export Sales: Alto Ingredients has seen strong performance from its renewable fuel export sales, which often command premium pricing compared to domestic sales. The company is increasing its production and sales volumes to capitalize on this higher international demand and favorable pricing.
- Growth in Liquid CO2 Utilization: Following the acquisition of Carbonic in early 2025, Alto Ingredients is expanding its capabilities and investments in liquid CO2 utilization. This move into a high-demand co-product market, particularly benefiting its Western segment, is expected to contribute to increased profitability and revenue.
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Share Repurchases
- Alto Ingredients, Inc. authorized a share repurchase program for up to $50 million of its common stock on September 12, 2022, with an initial purchase authorization of $10 million.
- The company's lender has further limited the purchase authorization to $5 million, with amounts exceeding this requiring lender consent.
- The share repurchase program does not have an expiration date.
Share Issuance
- In November 2022, Alto Ingredients agreed to issue up to 1.6 million shares of common stock to Orion Infrastructure Capital (OIC) in connection with a $125 million senior secured term loan facility.
Inbound Investments
- Alto Ingredients entered into a $125 million senior secured term loan facility with funds managed by Orion Infrastructure Capital (OIC) on November 7, 2022.
- The term loan allows for periodic draws in an aggregate amount up to $100 million, with an additional $25 million available subject to certain conditions.
- OIC also became a shareholder as part of this partnership.
Outbound Investments
- Alto Ingredients acquired Kodiak Carbonic, LLC, a beverage-grade liquid carbon dioxide processor, for $7.25 million in cash plus working capital on January 1, 2025.
- The company acquired Eagle Alcohol for $15.3 million in cash plus an earnout of up to $14.0 million (consisting of $9 million in cash and $5 million in common stock) on January 14, 2022.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for Alto Ingredients were $1.6 million in the third quarter of 2025 and $2 million in the fourth quarter of 2025.
- The $125 million term loan facility from OIC in November 2022 is aimed at financing capital expenditures to enhance the production of high-value, high-margin, and more sustainable products.
- Management intends to continue prioritizing high-return projects in 2026, focusing on enhancing and expanding production capabilities, increasing renewable fuel exports, leveraging demand for liquid CO2, and monetizing 45Z tax credits.
Peer Outperformance in Specialty Chemicals
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALTO | Alto Ingredients | -9.7% | 5.4x | 250.9% | -3.6% | -27.3% | — |
| NGVT | Ingevity | -10.0% | 47.7x | 32.3% | 87.9% | -2.8% | +25pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steel | 14 | 27.6% | 43.4% | 142.4% | STLD 311% · HCC 296% · RS 226% |
| Copper | 7 | 50.5% | 119.0% | 139.0% | SCCO 291% · TGB 281% · HBM 239% |
| Gold | 36 | 8.9% | 170.3% | 101.8% | IAG 471% · OGC 365% · KGC 292% |
| Silver | 6 | 33.5% | 256.8% | 76.8% | AYA 228% · HL 146% · EXK 48% |
| Construction Materials | 6 | -17.9% | 28.4% | 41.6% | USLM 367% · CRH 92% · VMC 48% |
| Aluminum | 3 | 8.7% | 137.1% | 40.4% | CENX 135% · AA -8% |
| Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers | 11 | -6.4% | 16.4% | 4.7% | GEF 52% · ATR 7% · SLGN 5% |
| Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials | 7 | 10.4% | 15.0% | -1.9% | PKG 117% · CCK 20% · SON 3% |
| Diversified Metals & Mining | 23 | -55.4% | -8.6% | -2.6% | USAR 34799% · MTRN 242% · MP 25% |
| Diversified Chemicals | 3 | 6.7% | 3.9% | -15.4% | CBT 57% · ASH -15% · CC -44% |
| Specialty Chemicals ← | 41 | 9.8% | 9.5% | -21.9% | NEU 197% · ESI 69% · SXT 54% |
| Commodity Chemicals | 13 | 0.3% | -16.5% | -32.3% | HWKN 332% · MEOH 54% · DOW -21% |
| Precious Metals & Minerals | 8 | -7.2% | 142.9% | -45.3% | PPTA 280% |
| Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals | 10 | -47.5% | -53.9% | -60.9% | CF 136% · NTR 18% · MOS -48% |
| Paper Products | 4 | -41.2% | -60.6% | -82.1% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Alto Ingredients Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Alto Ingredients Stock Jump Looks Great, But How Secure Is That Gain? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 26.88 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.1 |
| Rev LTM | 1,386 |
| Op Inc LTM | 103 |
| FCF LTM | 63 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 47 |
| CFO LTM | 148 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 116 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -11.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 45.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 11.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pekin Campus production | 591 | 586 | 721 | 748 | 689 |
| Marketing and distribution | 231 | 227 | 275 | 241 | 391 |
| Western production | 101 | 152 | 224 | 344 | 140 |
| Corporate and other | 7 | 11 | 16 | 16 | 0 |
| Intersegment eliminations | -13 | -12 | -13 | -14 | -12 |
| Total | 918 | 965 | 1,223 | 1,336 | 1,208 |
| $ Mil | 2004 |
|---|---|
| Automotive | 0 |
| Medical | -0 |
| Total | 0 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pekin Campus production | 209 | 224 | 251 | 257 | 266 |
| Marketing and distribution | 104 | 103 | 101 | 115 | 130 |
| Western production | 43 | 45 | 58 | 52 | 57 |
| Corporate and other | 33 | 30 | 44 | 55 | |
| Corporate assets | 31 | ||||
| Total | 389 | 401 | 454 | 478 | 485 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $3.72 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/24/2005 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -37.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $3.86 | $4.27 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | -3.7% | -12.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 46.1% | 92.7% |
| Downside Capture | 238.54 | -41.02 |
| Upside Capture | 86.42 | 109.16 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 35.0% | 3.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.46 | 1.16 | 0.32 | 0.56 | 0.21 | 0.62 |
| Up Beta | -3.00 | 2.15 | 3.75 | 0.72 | 1.22 | 0.50 |
| Down Beta | -0.31 | -3.78 | -3.12 | -1.85 | -1.27 | 0.80 |
| Up Capture | -66% | 47% | -88% | 63% | 128% | 16% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 16 | 24 | 56 | 118 | 326 |
| Down Capture | 93% | 286% | 141% | 170% | -47% | 85% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 25 | 39 | 68 | 125 | 367 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ALTO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALTO | 243.0% | 92.7% | 1.70 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 18.0% | 17.7% | 0.77 | -0.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.6% | 12.7% | 0.79 | 3.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | -1.4% | 28.5% | -0.06 | 6.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 47.3% | 20.6% | 1.76 | 15.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.8% | 13.9% | 0.02 | -7.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -27.9% | 43.4% | -0.63 | -1.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ALTO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALTO | -8.3% | 79.4% | 0.27 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 6.1% | 19.1% | 0.21 | 23.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.56 | 22.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.6% | 18.9% | 0.75 | 5.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.2% | 19.5% | 0.35 | 17.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.0% | 18.9% | -0.06 | 20.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.5% | 51.6% | 0.27 | 12.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ALTO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALTO | -6.5% | 90.9% | 0.35 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.5% | 20.7% | 0.45 | 22.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 19.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.0% | 16.4% | 0.60 | 6.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 18.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 15.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 62.2% | 66.2% | 1.02 | 8.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/8/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/5/2026 | -10.8% | -19.8% | -20.4% |
| 5/6/2026 | -18.3% | -17.4% | -2.3% |
| 3/4/2026 | 54.6% | 76.2% | 79.6% |
| 11/5/2025 | 22.4% | 64.2% | 104.3% |
| 8/6/2025 | -3.8% | 1.9% | 12.5% |
| 5/7/2025 | -1.6% | 4.6% | 18.6% |
| 3/5/2025 | 6.8% | -5.4% | -29.9% |
| 11/6/2024 | -37.6% | -32.5% | -22.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 9 | 11 |
| # Negative | 16 | 15 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 11.1% | 7.9% | 13.2% |
| Median Negative | -10.3% | -12.8% | -22.7% |
| Max Positive | 54.6% | 76.2% | 104.3% |
| Max Negative | -60.7% | -55.2% | -50.9% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/5/2026 | -10.8% | -19.8% | -20.4% |
| 5/6/2026 | -18.3% | -17.4% | -2.3% |
| 3/4/2026 | 54.6% | 76.2% | 79.6% |
| 11/5/2025 | 22.4% | 64.2% | 104.3% |
| 8/6/2025 | -3.8% | 1.9% | 12.5% |
| 5/7/2025 | -1.6% | 4.6% | 18.6% |
| 3/5/2025 | 6.8% | -5.4% | -29.9% |
| 11/6/2024 | -37.6% | -32.5% | -22.7% |
| 8/6/2024 | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.3% |
| 5/6/2024 | -9.7% | -12.8% | -25.6% |
| 3/11/2024 | -9.5% | -14.4% | -7.2% |
| 11/6/2023 | -60.7% | -55.2% | -48.7% |
| 8/7/2023 | 17.5% | 8.6% | 0.0% |
| 5/8/2023 | 15.4% | 52.9% | 74.3% |
| 3/9/2023 | -32.5% | -35.7% | -50.9% |
| 11/7/2022 | -11.3% | -12.3% | -24.3% |
| 8/8/2022 | -1.2% | -1.0% | -20.3% |
| 5/9/2022 | -1.6% | -2.2% | 2.2% |
| 3/10/2022 | 5.0% | 1.9% | 13.2% |
| 11/9/2021 | 3.0% | -6.6% | -15.9% |
| 8/3/2021 | -14.1% | -6.0% | -13.3% |
| 5/12/2021 | -6.6% | 7.9% | 14.3% |
| 3/10/2021 | -16.8% | -17.7% | -28.0% |
| 11/9/2020 | -0.9% | -1.9% | 4.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 9 | 11 |
| # Negative | 16 | 15 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 11.1% | 7.9% | 13.2% |
| Median Negative | -10.3% | -12.8% | -22.7% |
| Max Positive | 54.6% | 76.2% | 104.3% |
| Max Negative | -60.7% | -55.2% | -50.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/13/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/14/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/14/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/13/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/14/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/14/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/15/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/12/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/10/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/17/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/26/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/16/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/13/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/14/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/30/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/12/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 9/14/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathan, Gilbert E | Direct | Buy | 9142026 | 3.93 | 10,000 | 39,299 | 3,404,838 | Form | |
| 2 | Nathan, Gilbert E | Direct | Buy | 8122026 | 4.15 | 50,000 | 207,500 | 3,554,031 | Form | |
| 3 | Nathan, Gilbert E | Direct | Buy | 5132026 | 4.45 | 5,000 | 22,250 | 3,447,597 | Form | |
| 4 | Nathan, Gilbert E | Direct | Buy | 5132026 | 4.61 | 20,000 | 92,200 | 3,548,506 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathan, Gilbert E | Direct | Buy | 9142026 | 3.93 | 10,000 | 39,299 | 3,404,838 | Form | |
| 2 | Nathan, Gilbert E | Direct | Buy | 8122026 | 4.15 | 50,000 | 207,500 | 3,554,031 | Form | |
| 3 | Nathan, Gilbert E | Direct | Buy | 5132026 | 4.45 | 5,000 | 22,250 | 3,447,597 | Form | |
| 4 | Nathan, Gilbert E | Direct | Buy | 5132026 | 4.61 | 20,000 | 92,200 | 3,548,506 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Materials Resources |
| Chemical & Engineering News (C&EN) |
| Mining.com |
| Plastics News |
| Specialty Chemicals Resources |
| SpecialChem |
| Chemical Week |
| ICIS |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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