AIRO (AIRO)
Market Price (10/31/2025): $16.41 | Market Cap: $303.4 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
AIRO (AIRO)
Market Price (10/31/2025): $16.41Market Cap: $303.4 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 194% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -24 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -40% | |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 309%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 309% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 155% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.1% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 505% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 194% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -24 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -40% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 309%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 309% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 155% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.1% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 505% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
AIRO Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AIRO Return | -7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 309% | 306% |
| Peers Return | -11% | -2% | -3% | 14% | 35% | 35% | 78% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AIRO Win Rate | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 22% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 8% | 8% | 10% | 16% | 15% | 27% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AIRO Max Drawdown | -19% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -5% | -7% | -0% | -8% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FLY, ATRO, DFSC, PEW, PRZO.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/30/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AIRO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -58.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 141.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1954 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -43.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 53 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -98.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 7085.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 533 days | 1480 days |
Compare to FLY, ATRO, DFSC, PEW, PRZO
In The Past
AIRO's stock fell -58.6% during the 2020 Covid Pandemic from a high on 1/24/2020. A -58.6% loss requires a 141.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| With AIRO Stock Down 12% In A Month, How Confident Are You? | Return |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AIRO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09302025 | FCN | FTI Consulting | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.4% | 4.4% | -6.2% |
| 09122025 | ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -6.0% | -6.0% | -7.3% |
| 08312025 | EFX | Equifax | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -12.9% | -12.9% | -12.9% |
| 08312025 | UHAL | U-Haul | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.2% | -7.2% | -7.2% |
| 08312025 | BWXT | BWX Technologies | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 31.9% | 31.9% | -1.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09302025 | FCN | FTI Consulting | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.4% | 4.4% | -6.2% |
| 09122025 | ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -6.0% | -6.0% | -7.3% |
| 08312025 | EFX | Equifax | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -12.9% | -12.9% | -12.9% |
| 08312025 | UHAL | U-Haul | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.2% | -7.2% | -7.2% |
| 08312025 | BWXT | BWX Technologies | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 31.9% | 31.9% | -1.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for AIRO
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 10.47 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.0 |
| Rev LTM | 80 |
| Op Inc LTM | -16 |
| FCF LTM | -9 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -10 |
| CFO LTM | -9 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -5 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 166.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 57.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 330.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 35.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -124.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -349.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -164.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -358.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -197.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -389.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.0 |
| P/S | 3.6 |
| P/EBIT | 38.0 |
| P/E | -324.8 |
| P/CFO | 36.4 |
| Total Yield | -0.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -2.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -7.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -23.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 113.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 167.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 369.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -22.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 91.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 149.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 315.0% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/14/2025 | 5.5% | 1.4% | -7.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Median Positive | 5.5% | 1.4% | |
| Median Negative | -7.4% | ||
| Max Positive | 5.5% | 1.4% | |
| Max Negative | -7.4% | ||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8132025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | S-1 12/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 7102024 | 424B3 12/31/2023 |
| 3312023 | 6302023 | S-4/A 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 8312023 | S-4/A 12/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 4062023 | DRS 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | KATHURIA CHIRINJEEV | Executive Chairman | 9162025 | Sell | 17.39 | 103,733 | 1,803,917 | 16,235,269 | Form |
| 1 | New Generation Aerospace, LLC | 9162025 | Sell | 17.39 | 405,634 | 7,053,975 | 63,485,847 | Form | |
| 2 | Burns Joseph D | Chief Executive Officer | 9162025 | Sell | 17.39 | 179,800 | 3,126,722 | 28,140,533 | Form |
| 3 | Uczekaj John | President and COO | 9162025 | Sell | 17.39 | 2,225 | 38,693 | 348,322 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |