AIRO (AIRO)
Market Price (10/1/2026): $6.71 | Market Cap: $211.2 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
AIRO (AIRO)
Market Price (10/1/2026): $6.71Market Cap: $211.2 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Advanced Air Mobility, and Drone Technology. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -11% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -21 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -20% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -47%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -53% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -16% Key risksAIRO key risks include [1] a high customer concentration with approximately 72% of revenue derived from only two major clients, Show more. |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Advanced Air Mobility, and Drone Technology. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -11% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -21 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -20% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -47%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -53% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -16% |
| Key risksAIRO key risks include [1] a high customer concentration with approximately 72% of revenue derived from only two major clients, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
AIRO (AIRO) stock has lost about 10% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Management's Q3 2026 Revenue Guidance Projected a Sequential Decline.
Despite reporting strong fiscal Q2 2026 results on August 13, 2026, which included a 75.6% year-over-year revenue surge to $43.2 million and a 76.92% earnings per share beat against analyst expectations, AIRO management reiterated full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance of 15-25% but explicitly forecast a sequential decline in fiscal Q3 2026 revenue. This outlook for reduced sequential revenue likely tempered investor enthusiasm, contributing to the stock's recent approximate 10% decline.
2. Analyst Concerns Highlighted Over-Exposure and Lack of Diversification in the Drones Segment.
Analysts expressed apprehension regarding AIRO's business model, noting the "lumpiness" of its operations due to heavy reliance and over-exposure to the Drones segment, particularly the RQ-35 platform. Concerns were also raised about the "lack of visibility into future orders" and the "slow progress of their JVs," alongside an overall "lack of diversification within their UAS portfolio." These factors collectively diminished confidence in AIRO's near-term growth trajectory and ability to differentiate itself in an increasingly competitive market.
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AIRO (AIRO) stock has lost about 10% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Management's Q3 2026 Revenue Guidance Projected a Sequential Decline.
Despite reporting strong fiscal Q2 2026 results on August 13, 2026, which included a 75.6% year-over-year revenue surge to $43.2 million and a 76.92% earnings per share beat against analyst expectations, AIRO management reiterated full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance of 15-25% but explicitly forecast a sequential decline in fiscal Q3 2026 revenue. This outlook for reduced sequential revenue likely tempered investor enthusiasm, contributing to the stock's recent approximate 10% decline.
2. Analyst Concerns Highlighted Over-Exposure and Lack of Diversification in the Drones Segment.
Analysts expressed apprehension regarding AIRO's business model, noting the "lumpiness" of its operations due to heavy reliance and over-exposure to the Drones segment, particularly the RQ-35 platform. Concerns were also raised about the "lack of visibility into future orders" and the "slow progress of their JVs," alongside an overall "lack of diversification within their UAS portfolio." These factors collectively diminished confidence in AIRO's near-term growth trajectory and ability to differentiate itself in an increasingly competitive market.
3. Broader Market Volatility and Scrutiny of AI-Linked Valuations Affected Growth Stocks.
While the overall market experienced resilient economic growth and broadening market leadership in fiscal Q3 2026, particularly for small-cap stocks, there was also a prevailing caution regarding the elevated valuations of AI-linked companies. As an aerospace and defense technology company with a focus on autonomous systems, AIRO could have been susceptible to this increased scrutiny and potential volatility in the growth stock segment, especially if investors perceived its AI-driven opportunities as having less immediate or clear monetization pathways compared to other market leaders.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.6% change in AIRO stock from 6/30/2026 to 9/30/2026 was primarily driven by a -16.8% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 9302026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.39 | 6.61 | -10.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 85 | 107 | 25.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.3 | 2.0 | -14.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 26 | 31 | -16.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -10.6% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 9/30/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AIRO | -10.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.1% | 47.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | -9.9% | 37.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -13.1% change in AIRO stock from 3/31/2026 to 9/30/2026 was primarily driven by a -25.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 9302026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.61 | 6.61 | -13.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 91 | 107 | 17.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.6 | 2.0 | -25.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 31 | 31 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -13.1% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 9/30/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AIRO | -13.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.6% | 41.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 3.5% | 27.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -65.6% change in AIRO stock from 9/30/2025 to 9/30/2026 was primarily driven by a -83.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 9302026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 19.20 | 6.61 | -65.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 40 | 107 | 167.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 12.0 | 2.0 | -83.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 25 | 31 | -20.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -65.6% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 9/30/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AIRO | -65.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.4% | 39.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 9.2% | 35.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 65.3% change in AIRO stock from 9/30/2023 to 9/30/2026 was primarily driven by a 524.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 9302026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.00 | 6.61 | 65.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 17 | 107 | 524.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 5.8 | 2.0 | -66.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 25 | 31 | -20.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 65.3% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 9/30/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AIRO | 65.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 84.5% | 36.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 71.3% | 33.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AIRO Return | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 104% | -17% | 70% |
| Peers Return | -29% | -31% | 96% | 30% | 61% | -38% | 25% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 104% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AIRO Win Rate | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17% | 44% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 37% | 42% | 63% | 45% | 55% | 33% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AIRO Max Drawdown | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -76% | -56% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -52% | -53% | -30% | -33% | -40% | -56% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AVAV, KTOS, CAE, JOBY, ACHR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/30/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AIRO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -16.7% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.0% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2 days | 1 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -50.0% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 100.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 203 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -66.7% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 200.0% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -95.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2014.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 604 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -34.5% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.7% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1082 days | 47 days |
In The Past
AIRO's stock fell 0.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | AIRO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -50.0% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 100.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 203 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -66.7% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 200.0% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -95.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2014.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 604 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -34.5% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.7% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1082 days | 47 days |
In The Past
AIRO's stock fell 0.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About AIRO (AIRO)
AIRO (symbol: AIRO) is a technologically differentiated aerospace, autonomy, and air mobility company targeting 21st-century opportunities in both defense and commercial markets. It leverages extensive industry expertise and connections across the drone, aviation, and avionics sectors, operating through four distinct segments: Drones, Avionics, Training, and Electric Air Mobility. The company aims to provide connected and diversified solutions, supported by an international footprint and innovative technologies, positioning itself as a leader in its target markets.
The company's core offerings include advanced military drones, sold under the Sky-Watch brand to European NATO countries, which boast a critical ability to perform in GPS-denied environments. Its Avionics segment, through the well-recognized Aspen Avionics brand, develops and sells flight displays and GPS/GNSS sensors for military aircraft, general aviation, drones, and eVTOLs, serving both aftermarket upgrades and OEM clients. AIRO's Training segment, operating as CDI, provides specialized military pilot training, adversary air, and ISR aircraft leasing services to the U.S. military, NATO countries, and allies, with plans to expand into commercial pilot training.
A significant growth vector is the Electric Air Mobility segment, branded as Jaunt, which is developing a rotorcraft eVTOL for cargo and passenger use. Initial efforts are focused on a cargo eVTOL platform designed for the middle-mile delivery market, underpinned by patented compound rotorcraft technology with over 300 piloted flight hours. This segment is intended to serve as the foundation for future commercialization, with passenger applications representing a longer-term initiative to address the evolving needs of air mobility.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for AIRO:
- Like **Garmin** for aerospace, but they also build military drones and train fighter pilots, while developing eVTOLs.
- Imagine a **Kratos Defense & Security Solutions** that also has a leading general aviation avionics brand and is developing electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Military & Commercial Drones: AIRO develops, manufactures, and sells drones, including specialized models for GPS-denied environments.
- Drone Services (DaaS): The company will provide drone-as-a-service for military and commercial applications.
- Avionics Products: AIRO manufactures and sells advanced avionics, such as flight displays, Connected Panels, and GPS/GNSS sensors.
- Military Pilot Training & Consulting: The company offers professional training and consulting services to the U.S. military and allies, including adversary air and ISR aircraft leasing.
- Commercial Pilot Training: AIRO plans to expand into providing training services for commercial pilots.
- Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing (eVTOL) Aircraft: The company is developing rotorcraft eVTOLs for future cargo and passenger air mobility, focusing first on cargo applications.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AIRO serves a diverse customer base across its four operating segments. Its major customers fall into the following categories:
Company Customers (OEMs)
- Honeywell (Symbol: HON) - An avionics supplier for OEMs.
- Robinson Helicopters - An avionics supplier for OEMs.
- Pilatus - An avionics supplier for OEMs.
Governmental and Military Organizations
- U.S. Military - This includes specific branches and groups such as SEAL teams, the U.S. Naval Air Warfare Center, and USAF Air Combat Command for training services (under the CDI brand).
- European NATO Countries - A key supplier of military drones (under the Sky-Watch brand).
- Select NATO Countries and Other U.S. Allies - Recipients of professional training and consulting services.
General Aviation Aftermarket
- Owners and operators of general aviation aircraft who seek to upgrade their avionics technology (under the Aspen Avionics brand).
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Captain Joe Burns was appointed CEO in January 2020 and is a co-founder of The AIRO Group. He brings over 35 years of experience in aerospace, having founded and grown companies such as AIRO Drone and Sensurion Aerospace. Previously, he was a United Airlines Captain and oversaw $250 million in NextGen technology programs as their Director of Operations. Captain Burns serves on NASA advisory boards and is the Chairman Emeritus for the Airline Operations Committee and the Air Traffic Control Council of Airlines for America. He earned an MBA and a B.S. in Aeronautics from Miami University. He was recognized as a 2025 Miami University RedHawk50 Honoree.
Dr. Mariya Pylypiv, Chief Financial Officer and Principal Accounting OfficerDr. Mariya Pylypiv leads AIRO's global finance organization, overseeing financial strategy, capital markets, financial reporting, treasury, and strategic initiatives. She possesses extensive experience in corporate finance, investment banking, mergers and acquisitions (M&A), capital markets, and public company strategy. Before joining AIRO, she held senior roles in investment banking, corporate development, and investment management, where she advised and led companies through complex transactions, financings, and strategic growth initiatives.
Dr. Chirinjeev Kathuria, Executive ChairmanDr. Chirinjeev Kathuria has served as Executive Chairman since AIRO's inception in 2020 and is a co-founder of The AIRO Group. He is an Indian-American entrepreneur, physician, and philanthropist. Dr. Kathuria co-founded and serves on the board of directors of UpHealth, Inc. and Ocean Biomedical, Inc. He was the founding director of MirCorp, the first private company to launch manned space programs. He also co-founded digital healthcare and technology companies, including American Teleradiology NightHawks and The X-Stream Networks. Dr. Kathuria holds a Bachelor of Science and Doctor of Medicine from Brown University and an MBA from Stanford University.
John Uczekaj, President and Chief Operating OfficerJohn Uczekaj has served as President and Chief Operating Officer since July 2022. He has also been the Chief Executive Officer of Aspen Avionics since February 2007. Prior to Aspen Avionics, he was President and Chief Operating Officer of The NORDAM Group. Mr. Uczekaj was recognized as the Aviation Industry Leader of the Year in 2012 and inducted into the Living Legends of Aviation in 2013. He is a member of the Board of Directors of the General Aviation Manufacturers Association.
Christopher Levy, Senior Vice President & GM for Training & US Business DevelopmentChristopher Levy brings a distinguished career in aerospace and defense to AIRO, where he leads both military and commercial training groups. He is a retired U.S. Air Force Colonel with 37 years of aviation experience. He served as an F-15C and MC-12 instructor, accumulating over 400 combat hours in Iraq and Afghanistan. Mr. Levy has led aviation units of over 1,000 personnel in both peacetime and wartime.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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Challenges and Uncertainty in Electric Air Mobility (eVTOL) Development and Commercialization: AIRO's Electric Air Mobility segment, specifically the development of rotorcraft eVTOLs through its Jaunt brand, represents a high-risk, capital-intensive undertaking. This segment faces significant hurdles, including substantial research and development costs, lengthy and complex regulatory certification processes (even if targeting existing CAR 529 Rotorcraft standards), and intense competition within a nascent and unproven market. The successful commercialization of these platforms relies on overcoming these challenges, and delays or failures in any of these areas could significantly impact the company's financial performance and future growth prospects.
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Significant Reliance on Government and Military Contracts: A substantial portion of AIRO's business, particularly within its Drones (Sky-Watch brand) and Training (CDI brand) segments, is dependent on contracts with the U.S. military, NATO countries, and other U.S. allies. This reliance exposes the company to risks associated with fluctuations in government defense spending, budget cuts, changes in political priorities, and the intense competitive environment for securing and maintaining these contracts. The need to uphold high security clearances and navigate complex procurement processes further adds to this risk.
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Technological Obsolescence and Intense Competition in Evolving Markets: AIRO operates in dynamic aerospace and defense markets where technological advancements are rapid. Across its Drones, Avionics, and Electric Air Mobility segments, there is a continuous need for innovation to maintain a competitive edge. The risk of technological obsolescence of existing products or the emergence of superior or more cost-effective solutions from competitors could challenge AIRO's market position and profitability if the company fails to adapt and innovate effectively.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The Electric Air Mobility segment of AIRO is developing an eVTOL (electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing) rotorcraft. A clear emerging threat to this strategy is the rapid development and commercialization of VTOL aircraft powered by hydrogen fuel cells or other alternative, non-battery-electric propulsion systems. These alternative technologies, which are actively being pursued by competitors in the nascent air mobility market, could offer superior range, payload capacity, and faster refueling times compared to purely battery-electric eVTOLs. Such advancements would pose a significant competitive challenge to AIRO's chosen technological path for its cargo and passenger eVTOL platforms, particularly for the attractive middle-mile delivery cargo market where operational efficiency and turnaround times are critical.
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- Expansion into Commercial Pilot Training: AIRO plans to extend its highly regarded military pilot training services to the commercial sector, addressing the global pilot shortage.
- Commercialization of Cargo eVTOLs: The Jaunt brand is developing and certifying a cargo eVTOL platform, which is expected to be the foundation of AIRO's commercialization efforts, targeting the attractive middle mile delivery cargo market.
- Growth in Military and Commercial Drone Markets with Differentiated Technology: The Drones segment, through its Sky-Watch brand, is expanding its military drone sales to European NATO countries and intends to penetrate commercial markets by leveraging its unique GPS-denied navigation capability, alongside future drone-as-a-service (DaaS) offerings.
- Modernization of General Aviation Avionics: AIRO's Aspen Avionics brand is well-positioned to capitalize on the aging general aviation fleets, as owners and operators seek to upgrade their aircraft with advanced avionics technology.
- Securing New Military Training Mandates: Leveraging its existing $5.7 billion IDIQ contract, top security clearances, and established relationships with entities like the Pentagon, AIRO's CDI brand is poised to bid on and secure additional military training mandates for the U.S. military, NATO, and other allies.
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Share Issuance
- The number of shares outstanding for AIRO increased by 81.32% in one year as of September 22, 2026.
- AIRO's initial public offering (IPO) of common stock occurred on April 17, 2025.
- Shares were reserved for future issuance under an Employee Stock Purchase Plan (ESPP) as mentioned in a February 21, 2025, SEC filing.
Inbound Investments
- AIRO Group Holdings, Inc. was formed on August 30, 2021, with the purpose of acquiring and integrating various companies in the aerospace and defense industry.
Outbound Investments
- During the year ended December 31, 2022, AIRO completed a "Put-Together Transaction" to acquire six companies, which became its Drones, Avionics, Training, and Electric Air Mobility segments.
- These acquisitions included AIRO Drone and Agile Defense on February 25, 2022, and Aspen Avionics on April 1, 2022.
Capital Expenditures
- AIRO reported capital expenditures of -$6.52 million in the trailing twelve months as of September 22, 2026.
- Annual capital expenditures were -$0.08 million in fiscal year 2022, -$0.84 million in fiscal year 2023, -$0.79 million in fiscal year 2024, and -$3.07 million in fiscal year 2025.
- The company's research and development efforts are focused on developing rotorcraft eVTOL platforms for cargo and passenger use through its Jaunt brand.
Peer Outperformance in Aerospace & Defense
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction & Engineering | 31 | 4.5% | 117.0% | 185.9% | CDNL 2254% · FIX 2179% · STRL 2051% |
| Marine Transportation | 5 | 89.4% | 58.5% | 169.1% | HOS 40374% · MATX 183% · KEX 169% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | 0.9% | 44.2% | 102.4% | CAT 355% · ALSN 240% · WAB 234% |
| Aerospace & Defense ← | 54 | -13.8% | 59.4% | 65.0% | ATI 994% · FTAI 819% · HWM 608% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 17.6% | 57.7% | 47.7% | FSTR 133% · CSX 64% · UNP 51% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 73 | 9.0% | 42.2% | 45.2% | CRS 1103% · PSIX 1094% · EROC 605% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 19 | 2.4% | 34.2% | 42.4% | DXPE 489% · AIT 278% · WCC 210% |
| Diversified Support Services | 33 | 9.6% | 27.3% | 33.3% | LIME 3176% · TH 399% · WLFC 303% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 36.1% | 1.6% | 29.8% | XPO 258% · R 209% · CVLG 145% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 40 | 4.0% | 60.0% | 24.4% | POWL 2304% · BE 1400% · VRT 888% |
| Building Products | 33 | -15.9% | 0.6% | 17.7% | LMB 637% · GFF 346% · PPIH 297% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 7.7% | 3.0% | -2.0% | RCMT 541% · CSW 125% · DD 72% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -31.8% | 42.4% | -7.9% | UBER 46% · CAR -8% · LYFT -73% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 30 | -15.3% | 17.2% | -8.5% | CECO 859% · ADUR 447% · GEO 311% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 17 | 12.8% | -1.5% | -11.9% | BLBD 160% · DE 109% · GENC 53% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 14 | -16.8% | -24.6% | -26.1% | HURN 199% · CRAI 72% · GRNQ 17% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -35.7% | -15.3% | -29.7% | EXLS 36% · BR 6% · G -27% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 9 | 14.7% | 16.9% | -36.0% | PBI 164% · TILE 125% · HNI 41% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | 14.3% | 13.9% | -37.8% | LTM 2978% · UAL 116% · DAL 91% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 22 | -1.1% | -17.8% | -38.0% | BBSI 61% · ADP 43% · HQI 7% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -32.1% | -24.2% | -39.3% | CHRW 93% · FDX 77% · EXPD 68% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 10 | -25.6% | 19.5% | -40.3% | CIX 155% · MG 104% · BCO 66% |
| Airport Services | 3 | -71.9% | -78.6% | -69.4% | JOBY -40% · ASLE -69% · UP -100% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| AIRO Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Is AIRO Stock Built to Withstand a Pullback? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 15.37 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.9 |
| Rev LTM | 116 |
| Op Inc LTM | -21 |
| FCF LTM | -129 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -62 |
| CFO LTM | -50 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -17 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 16.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 16.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 53.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 21.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -38.4% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -29.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -20.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -6.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 28.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -47.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -7.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -53.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -11.8% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $6.61 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/13/2025 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -67.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $7.59 | $17.95 |
| DMA Trend | down | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -13.0% | -63.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 86.2% | 87.4% |
| Downside Capture | 464.90 | 443.55 |
| Upside Capture | 334.81 | 249.46 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 47.2% | 39.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.25 | 4.18 | 3.70 | 2.86 | 2.63 | -0.07 |
| Up Beta | 5.74 | 3.76 | 3.64 | 1.00 | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| Down Beta | 1.43 | 2.04 | 2.99 | 3.24 | 2.72 | -0.96 |
| Up Capture | 125% | 489% | 417% | 404% | 546% | 90% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 20 | 30 | 61 | 116 | 149 |
| Down Capture | 329% | 420% | 342% | 283% | 188% | 100% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 62 | 133 | 173 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AIRO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIRO | -65.4% | 87.2% | -0.83 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 10.1% | 17.3% | 0.39 | 35.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.9% | 13.0% | 0.87 | 39.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 8.1% | 29.6% | 0.26 | 24.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 43.1% | 20.8% | 1.61 | 2.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.2% | 13.6% | -0.09 | 11.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -27.1% | 44.5% | -0.58 | 31.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AIRO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIRO | -22.5% | 96.3% | -0.61 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.6% | 17.6% | 0.55 | 33.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 17.2% | 0.59 | 36.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.2% | 18.9% | 0.78 | 18.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.6% | 19.6% | 0.42 | -0.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.5% | 18.9% | -0.08 | 13.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.9% | 52.3% | 0.44 | 28.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AIRO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIRO | -18.5% | 104.5% | -1.01 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.2% | 20.0% | 0.58 | 32.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 35.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.8% | 16.4% | 0.58 | 14.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 18.1% | 0.38 | 1.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.5% | 20.7% | 0.18 | 14.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.6% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 23.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/16/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/13/2026 | 26.1% | 1.2% | -14.6% |
| 5/14/2026 | -15.5% | -23.6% | 2.6% |
| 11/14/2025 | -20.8% | -38.4% | -39.7% |
| 8/14/2025 | 5.5% | 1.4% | -7.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| # Negative | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Median Positive | 15.8% | 1.3% | 2.6% |
| Median Negative | -18.2% | -31.0% | -14.6% |
| Max Positive | 26.1% | 1.4% | 2.6% |
| Max Negative | -20.8% | -38.4% | -39.7% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/13/2026 | 26.1% | 1.2% | -14.6% |
| 5/14/2026 | -15.5% | -23.6% | 2.6% |
| 11/14/2025 | -20.8% | -38.4% | -39.7% |
| 8/14/2025 | 5.5% | 1.4% | -7.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| # Negative | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Median Positive | 15.8% | 1.3% | 2.6% |
| Median Negative | -18.2% | -31.0% | -14.6% |
| Max Positive | 26.1% | 1.4% | 2.6% |
| Max Negative | -20.8% | -38.4% | -39.7% |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 9/28/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/13/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 15.0% | 20.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 20.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | -19.00 Mil | -17.00 Mil | -15.00 Mil | Affirmed | Guidance: -17.50 Mil for 2026 | ||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/14/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 15.0% | 20.0% | 25.0% | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | -19.00 Mil | -17.50 Mil | -15.00 Mil | ||||
Insider Activity
Updated 9/4/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uczekaj, John | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 9042026 | 7.10 | 7,230 | 51,344 | 1,522,150 | Form |
| 2 | Pylypiv, Mariya | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9042026 | 7.08 | 8,697 | 61,593 | 1,893,279 | Form |
| 3 | Uczekaj, John | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 8172026 | 9.72 | 16,887 | 164,129 | 2,153,513 | Form |
| 4 | Uczekaj, John | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 7072026 | 7.76 | 154 | 1,195 | 180,259 | Form |
| 5 | Pylypiv, Mariya | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 7.66 | 30,028 | 229,921 | 613,991 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uczekaj, John | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 9042026 | 7.10 | 7,230 | 51,344 | 1,522,150 | Form |
| 2 | Pylypiv, Mariya | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9042026 | 7.08 | 8,697 | 61,593 | 1,893,279 | Form |
| 3 | Uczekaj, John | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 8172026 | 9.72 | 16,887 | 164,129 | 2,153,513 | Form |
| 4 | Uczekaj, John | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 7072026 | 7.76 | 154 | 1,195 | 180,259 | Form |
| 5 | Pylypiv, Mariya | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 7.66 | 30,028 | 229,921 | 613,991 | Form |
| 6 | Uczekaj, John | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 4062026 | 8.84 | 3,415 | 30,176 | 177,709 | Form |
| 7 | Uczekaj, John | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 10.43 | 396 | 4,129 | 245,296 | Form |
| 8 | Pylypiv, Mariya | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 10.26 | 20,078 | 205,974 | 511,776 | Form |
| 9 | Uczekaj, John | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 1052026 | 9.42 | 183 | 1,725 | 208,788 | Form |
| 10 | Kathuria, Chirinjeev | Executive Chairman | Direct | Sell | 9162025 | 17.39 | 103,733 | 1,803,917 | 16,235,269 | Form |
| 11 | Kathuria, Chirinjeev | Executive Chairman | New Generation Aerospace, LLC | Sell | 9162025 | 17.39 | 405,634 | 7,053,975 | 63,485,847 | Form |
| 12 | New, Generation Aerospace, Llc | Direct | Sell | 9162025 | 17.39 | 405,634 | 7,053,975 | 63,485,847 | Form | |
| 13 | Burns, Joseph D | Chief Executive Officer | Joe and Kim Burns Trust | Sell | 9162025 | 17.39 | 179,800 | 3,126,722 | 28,140,533 | Form |
| 14 | Uczekaj, John | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 9162025 | 17.39 | 2,225 | 38,693 | 348,322 | Form |
| 15 | Uczekaj, John | President and COO | JS DM Uczekaj Family Trust | Sell | 9162025 | 17.39 | 35,900 | 624,301 | 5,618,813 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Aerospace & Defense Resources |
| Defense News |
| FlightGlobal |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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