Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 194%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -24 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -40%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Advanced Air Mobility, and Drone Technology.
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.5x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 40x
2  Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 119%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 119%
3  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 155%
4  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.6%
5  High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 506%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 194%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Advanced Air Mobility, and Drone Technology.
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -24 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -40%
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.5x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 40x
4 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 119%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 119%
5 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 155%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.6%
7 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 506%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AIRO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Significant Revenue Miss in Q3 2025 Earnings: AIRO Group Holdings, Inc. reported third-quarter 2025 revenue of $6.28 million, which was substantially below the estimated figure of $26.95 million. This significant revenue shortfall likely contributed to a strong negative market reaction and a decline in the stock price.

2. Substantial Insider Selling: In the three months leading up to late November 2025, insiders of AIRO Group sold company stock totaling approximately $19.08 million. This level of insider selling, exceeding the $5 million threshold, can signal a lack of confidence by those with direct knowledge of the company's prospects.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AIRO Return-7%0%0%0%0%107%92%
Peers Return-11%-2%-3%14%-2%47%40%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AIRO Win Rate8%0%0%0%0%20% 
Peers Win Rate8%8%10%12%5%31% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AIRO Max Drawdown-19%0%0%0%0%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-15%-5%-7%-0%-2%-0% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FLY, ATRO, BETA, DFSC, PEW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAIROS&P 500
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-58.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven141.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1954 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-43.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven75.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven53 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-98.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven7085.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven533 days1480 days

Compare to FLY, ATRO, BETA, DFSC, PEW


In The Past

AIRO's stock fell -58.6% during the 2020 Covid Pandemic from a high on 1/24/2020. A -58.6% loss requires a 141.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About AIRO (AIRO)

Better Bets than AIRO (AIRO)

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleTopic
0DASHBOARDS 
1Can AIRO Stock Recover If Markets Fall?Return
Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AIRO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for AIRO

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AIROFLYATROBETADFSCPEWMedian
NameAIRO Firefly .AstronicsBETA Tec.DEFSEC T.GrabAGun. 
Mkt Price8.7518.5551.7229.503.543.5613.65
Mkt Cap0.2-1.8---1.0
Rev LTM59101831-4-80
Op Inc LTM-24-21150--9--16
FCF LTM--19951--9--9
FCF 3Y Avg--8--11--1
CFO LTM--16574--9--9
CFO 3Y Avg--22--10-6

Growth & Margins

AIROFLYATROBETADFSCPEWMedian
NameAIRO Firefly .AstronicsBETA Tec.DEFSEC T.GrabAGun. 
Rev Chg LTM193.9%-6.2%-166.4%-166.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--19.5%-94.3%-56.9%
Rev Chg Q347.5%-3.8%-330.2%-330.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM47.8%-0.9%-35.8%-35.8%
Op Mgn LTM-40.4%-209.3%6.0%--209.1%--124.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg--2.2%--699.5%--348.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-11.8%-1.7%-86.7%-1.7%
CFO/Rev LTM--164.1%8.9%--212.3%--164.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg--2.5%--716.7%--357.1%
FCF/Rev LTM--197.5%6.1%--216.3%--197.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg--0.8%--777.8%--388.5%

Valuation

AIROFLYATROBETADFSCPEWMedian
NameAIRO Firefly .AstronicsBETA Tec.DEFSEC T.GrabAGun. 
Mkt Cap0.2-1.8---1.0
P/S7.5-1.9---4.7
P/EBIT39.6-32.3---36.0
P/E-269.8--523.2----396.5
P/CFO--22.0---22.0
Total Yield-0.4%--0.2%----0.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%-0.0%---0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg---0.5%----0.5%
D/E0.0-0.2---0.1
Net D/E-0.0-0.2---0.1

Returns

AIROFLYATROBETADFSCPEWMedian
NameAIRO Firefly .AstronicsBETA Tec.DEFSEC T.GrabAGun. 
1M Rtn-46.3%-22.0%6.1%--10.6%-20.0%-20.0%
3M Rtn-57.1%-58.2%40.5%-19.6%-33.0%-33.0%
6M Rtn118.8%-61.1%---89.9%
12M Rtn118.8%-215.2%---167.0%
3Y Rtn118.8%-466.5%---292.6%
1M Excs Rtn-46.2%-22.0%6.1%--10.6%-20.0%-20.0%
3M Excs Rtn-63.3%-62.0%27.1%-13.0%-42.0%-42.0%
6M Excs Rtn104.0%-46.4%---75.2%
12M Excs Rtn105.2%-206.7%---155.9%
3Y Excs Rtn45.9%-493.7%---269.8%

Financials

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,141,381
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202532.8%
Average Daily Volume704,962
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.62
Basic Shares Quantity18,490,316
Short % of Basic Shares6.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025813202510-Q 6/30/2025
123120242212025S-1 12/31/2024
123120237102024424B3 12/31/2023
33120236302023S-4/A 3/31/2023
123120228312023S-4/A 12/31/2022
123120214062023DRS 12/31/2021