Tearsheet

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)


Market Price (12/21/2025): $75.19 | Market Cap: $12.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)


Market Price (12/21/2025): $75.19
Market Cap: $12.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 10x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 392x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 643x
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include Drone Technology, Machine Learning, Show more.
Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 191%
2  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.3%
3  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 208%
4  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.0%
5  Key risks
KTOS key risks include [1] margin erosion from cost overruns on fixed-price contracts, Show more.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include Drone Technology, Machine Learning, Show more.
2 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 10x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 392x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 643x
3 Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 191%
4 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.3%
5 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 208%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.0%
7 Key risks
KTOS key risks include [1] margin erosion from cost overruns on fixed-price contracts, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

KTOS Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Significant Contract Wins: Kratos Defense & Security Solutions secured several substantial contracts, including a prime contract valued at up to $116.7 million over five years from the U.S. Space Development Agency in November 2024 to establish and operate an Advanced Fire Control Ground Infrastructure. Additionally, the company received an approximate $30 million sole source Air Defense System hardware production award in April 2025.



2. Robust Financial Performance and Positive Outlook: The company reported strong financial results for full-year 2024, with revenues increasing by 9.6% to $1.136 billion, and provided a positive outlook for 2025, forecasting 10% organic revenue growth. Kratos also projected a 13-15% revenue increase for 2026, driven by recent program awards.



Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
KTOS Return52%-29%-47%97%30%171%296%
Peers Return1%8%28%4%15%33%124%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
KTOS Win Rate58%17%33%83%58%67% 
Peers Win Rate50%55%57%47%58%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
KTOS Max Drawdown-43%-30%-53%-3%-17%-8% 
Peers Max Drawdown-30%-13%-5%-19%-5%-12% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LMT, NOC, RTX, AVAV, LHX. See KTOS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventKTOSS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-72.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven266.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven768 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-51.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven104.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven179 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-34.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven53.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven167 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-80.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven415.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven4,329 days1,480 days

Compare to AIR, MTRN, IRBT, APEX, BETA


In The Past

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions's stock fell -72.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/17/2021. A -72.7% loss requires a 266.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)

Better Bets than Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to KTOS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.0%18.0%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%6.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.6%2.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
3.6%3.6%-0.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.0%18.0%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%6.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.6%2.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
3.6%3.6%-0.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Kratos Defense & Security Solutions

Peers to compare with:

Financials

KTOSLMTNOCRTXAVAVLHXMedian
NameKratos D.Lockheed.Northrop.RTX AeroViro.L3Harris. 
Mkt Price75.39474.13568.46182.01243.01287.45265.23
Mkt Cap12.9110.081.3244.512.153.867.5
Rev LTM1,28573,34940,92885,9881,37021,37331,150
Op Inc LTM245,9974,0988,815-702,3663,232
FCF LTM-934,5931,8344,726-2542,1641,999
FCF 3Y Avg-425,6342,1375,547-921,8281,983
CFO LTM-96,3613,4387,963-1952,5072,972
CFO 3Y Avg227,3863,7918,691-582,2083,000

Growth & Margins

KTOSLMTNOCRTXAVAVLHXMedian
NameKratos D.Lockheed.Northrop.RTX AeroViro.L3Harris. 
Rev Chg LTM14.0%2.9%-0.1%8.8%79.9%2.9%5.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg14.3%4.3%5.2%9.4%48.0%8.4%8.9%
Rev Chg Q26.0%8.8%4.3%11.9%150.7%2.4%10.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM5.9%2.1%1.1%2.9%26.2%0.6%2.5%
Op Mgn LTM1.9%8.2%10.0%10.3%-5.1%11.1%9.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg2.6%11.0%9.0%7.7%2.9%10.4%8.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%0.0%0.2%0.3%-2.1%0.2%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM-0.7%8.7%8.4%9.3%-14.2%11.7%8.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg2.0%10.5%9.4%11.3%-4.2%11.0%9.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-7.3%6.3%4.5%5.5%-18.5%10.1%5.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-3.5%8.0%5.3%7.2%-7.6%9.2%6.3%

Valuation

KTOSLMTNOCRTXAVAVLHXMedian
NameKratos D.Lockheed.Northrop.RTX AeroViro.L3Harris. 
Mkt Cap12.9110.081.3244.512.153.867.5
P/S10.01.52.02.88.82.52.7
P/EBIT391.918.314.723.5-141.921.319.8
P/E642.726.220.237.1-173.731.728.9
P/CFO-1,494.717.323.730.7-62.021.419.4
Total Yield0.2%5.9%5.7%4.1%-0.6%4.8%4.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.1%0.8%1.4%0.0%1.7%1.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-0.8%4.8%2.8%3.7%-1.0%4.2%3.3%
D/E0.00.20.20.20.10.20.2
Net D/E-0.00.20.20.10.00.20.2

Returns

KTOSLMTNOCRTXAVAVLHXMedian
NameKratos D.Lockheed.Northrop.RTX AeroViro.L3Harris. 
1M Rtn12.0%2.0%0.6%5.8%-11.3%1.1%1.6%
3M Rtn-6.7%1.0%-0.4%15.5%-12.8%1.7%0.3%
6M Rtn74.9%2.3%15.1%25.2%28.1%16.1%20.6%
12M Rtn191.4%-0.2%23.2%59.2%48.1%37.2%42.7%
3Y Rtn698.6%5.5%10.9%95.2%184.9%48.0%71.6%
1M Excs Rtn3.8%-1.2%-1.9%2.3%-16.2%-2.1%-1.6%
3M Excs Rtn-8.7%-2.7%-3.0%12.5%-17.7%-0.6%-2.8%
6M Excs Rtn59.4%-11.6%1.2%12.4%13.6%2.0%7.2%
12M Excs Rtn163.7%-13.5%7.5%44.9%35.2%21.2%28.2%
3Y Excs Rtn620.8%-65.0%-58.7%23.8%104.8%-30.6%-3.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Kratos Government Solutions825677580561556
Unmanned Systems212222232187161
Total1,037898812748718


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Kratos Government Solutions5327424445
Unmanned Systems4-31396
Merger and acquisition related expenses-0    
Stock compensation expense-25    
Corporate activities -27-28-23-13
Total31-3282938


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Kratos Government Solutions1,1901,105908877778
Unmanned Systems379350327292246
Corporate Assets64    
Corporate activities 97355393159
Discontinued operations  0 3
Total1,6331,5521,5901,5631,186


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity9,234,314
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520253.7%
Average Daily Volume2,176,151
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.24
Basic Shares Quantity170,500,000
Short % of Basic Shares5.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/4/2025-14.2%-15.1%-15.2%
8/7/20258.1%17.0%8.6%
5/7/2025-5.1%-7.0%12.2%
2/26/20255.2%11.4%26.1%
11/7/20249.0%6.1%14.3%
8/7/2024-1.6%-1.1%5.1%
5/7/20245.8%6.9%10.9%
2/13/202417.0%13.4%-2.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive91313
# Negative1399
Median Positive9.0%6.9%12.3%
Median Negative-5.1%-9.3%-11.9%
Max Positive17.0%22.7%30.0%
Max Negative-22.3%-16.1%-36.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/28/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/29/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/30/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/29/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/29/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023213202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 10/1/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/25/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/26/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/25/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/25/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/26/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/27/2022
12312021222202210-K 12/26/2021