Tearsheet

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $72.62 | Market Cap: $12.4 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $72.62
Market Cap: $12.4 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 12x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 475x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 779x
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include Drone Technology, Machine Learning, Show more.
Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 176%
2  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.3%
3  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 208%
4  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.0%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include Drone Technology, Machine Learning, Show more.
2 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 12x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 475x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 779x
3 Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 176%
4 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.3%
5 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 208%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.0%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

KTOS Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) experienced an approximate 10.5% movement, specifically an 11.38% decline in its stock price, in early November 2025 following its third-quarter 2025 financial results. Several key factors contributed to this movement:

**1. Lower-than-Expected Q4 2025 Revenue Guidance:** Despite Kratos reporting third-quarter 2025 revenues and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) that exceeded analyst expectations, the company's revenue guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025 fell short of Wall Street estimates. This forward-looking outlook likely weighed on investor sentiment, overshadowing the strong Q3 performance.

**2. Increased Cash Flow Usage in Operations:** Kratos reported a significant amount of cash flow used in operations during the third quarter of 2025, with figures indicating around $13.3 million to $14.3 million in cash outflow. This level of cash usage can be a point of concern for investors, impacting the stock's performance.

**3. Market Reaction to Earnings Outlook:** The market had anticipated a more robust outlook for Kratos. When the Q4 2025 guidance did not meet these higher expectations, the stock reacted negatively, leading to a notable sell-off immediately after the earnings announcement.

**4. Strategic Acquisition of Orbit Technologies Ltd.:** Concurrent with the earnings release, Kratos announced its intent to acquire Orbit Technologies Ltd. for $356.3 million. While intended to enhance capabilities in satellite-based communications, the timing and size of a major acquisition can sometimes introduce short-term uncertainty or perceived integration risks for investors, contributing to downward pressure.

**5. Existing High Valuation:** Leading up to this period, Kratos's stock was already trading at a significantly high price-to-earnings ratio compared to the industry median. This high valuation could have made the stock particularly sensitive to any news perceived as negative, such as a weaker future guidance, amplifying the downward movement.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
KTOS Return52%-29%-47%97%30%169%294%
Peers Return7%7%-3%14%-21%-3%-4%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
KTOS Win Rate58%17%33%83%58%80% 
Peers Win Rate42%27%28%30%23%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
KTOS Max Drawdown-43%-30%-53%-3%-17%-8% 
Peers Max Drawdown-46%-7%-16%-9%-24%-26% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AIR, MTRN, IRBT, APEX, BETA. See KTOS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventKTOSS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-72.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven266.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven768 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-51.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven104.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven179 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-34.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven53.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven167 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-80.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven415.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven4329 days1480 days

Compare to AIR, MTRN, IRBT, APEX, BETA


In The Past

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions's stock fell -72.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/17/2021. A -72.7% loss requires a 266.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)

Better Bets than Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to KTOS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Kratos Defense & Security Solutions

Peers to compare with:

Financials

KTOSAIRMTRNIRBTAPEXBETAMedian
NameKratos D.AAR Materion iRobot APEX Glo.BETA Tec. 
Mkt Price72.7882.64125.733.39-29.5072.78
Mkt Cap12.43.02.60.1--2.8
Rev LTM1,2852,8581,734547--1,509
Op Inc LTM24201145-149--85
FCF LTM-93-2682-107---60
FCF 3Y Avg-42-1538-45---28
CFO LTM-910160-107--1
CFO 3Y Avg2217133-43--20

Growth & Margins

KTOSAIRMTRNIRBTAPEXBETAMedian
NameKratos D.AAR Materion iRobot APEX Glo.BETA Tec. 
Rev Chg LTM14.0%17.6%3.9%-33.1%--8.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg14.3%16.4%0.3%-24.3%--7.3%
Rev Chg Q26.0%11.8%1.9%-24.6%--6.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM5.9%2.8%0.5%-8.0%--1.6%
Op Mgn LTM1.9%7.0%8.4%-27.3%--4.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg2.6%6.4%8.1%-21.9%--4.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%0.6%0.2%-6.7%--0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM-0.7%0.3%9.2%-19.6%---0.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg2.0%0.7%7.8%-7.5%--1.4%
FCF/Rev LTM-7.3%-0.9%4.7%-19.6%---4.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-3.5%-0.6%2.2%-7.7%---2.1%

Valuation

KTOSAIRMTRNIRBTAPEXBETAMedian
NameKratos D.AAR Materion iRobot APEX Glo.BETA Tec. 
Mkt Cap12.43.02.60.1--2.8
P/S12.10.91.40.2--1.2
P/EBIT475.018.039.7-0.7--28.9
P/E778.985.0129.1-0.6--107.0
P/CFO-1,811.5250.615.7-1.2--7.2
Total Yield0.1%1.2%1.0%-166.7%--0.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%--0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-0.8%-0.7%1.6%-32.4%---0.8%
D/E0.00.40.21.8--0.3
Net D/E-0.00.40.21.6--0.3

Returns

KTOSAIRMTRNIRBTAPEXBETAMedian
NameKratos D.AAR Materion iRobot APEX Glo.BETA Tec. 
1M Rtn-20.1%-3.6%10.0%17.3%--3.2%
3M Rtn12.8%9.2%15.9%6.3%--11.0%
6M Rtn81.5%26.5%59.2%1.6%--42.9%
12M Rtn176.1%20.8%10.5%-57.9%--15.7%
3Y Rtn635.2%73.8%53.7%-93.6%--63.7%
1M Excs Rtn-20.1%-3.6%10.0%17.3%--3.2%
3M Excs Rtn9.1%1.8%8.1%2.6%--5.4%
6M Excs Rtn66.8%11.8%44.5%-13.1%--28.1%
12M Excs Rtn155.1%5.3%-4.2%-69.0%--0.6%
3Y Excs Rtn625.2%10.9%-6.7%-166.3%--2.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Kratos Government Solutions825677580561556
Unmanned Systems212222232187161
Total1,037898812748718


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Kratos Government Solutions5327424445
Unmanned Systems4-31396
Merger and acquisition related expenses-0    
Stock compensation expense-25    
Corporate activities -27-28-23-13
Total31-3282938


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Kratos Government Solutions1,1901,105908877778
Unmanned Systems379350327292246
Corporate Assets64    
Corporate activities 97355393159
Discontinued operations  0 3
Total1,6331,5521,5901,5631,186


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8,904,522
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-7.8%
Average Daily Volume4,011,992
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.22
Basic Shares Quantity170,500,000
Short % of Basic Shares5.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/28/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/29/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/30/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/29/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/29/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023213202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 10/1/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/25/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/26/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/25/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/25/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/26/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/27/2022
12312021222202210-K 12/26/2021