Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $72.62 | Market Cap: $12.4 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $72.62Market Cap: $12.4 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 12x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 475x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 779x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include Drone Technology, Machine Learning, Show more. | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 176% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.3% | |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 208% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.0% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include Drone Technology, Machine Learning, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 12x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 475x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 779x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 176% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.3% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 208% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.0% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
KTOS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) experienced an approximate 10.5% movement, specifically an 11.38% decline in its stock price, in early November 2025 following its third-quarter 2025 financial results. Several key factors contributed to this movement:
**1. Lower-than-Expected Q4 2025 Revenue Guidance:** Despite Kratos reporting third-quarter 2025 revenues and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) that exceeded analyst expectations, the company's revenue guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025 fell short of Wall Street estimates. This forward-looking outlook likely weighed on investor sentiment, overshadowing the strong Q3 performance.
**2. Increased Cash Flow Usage in Operations:** Kratos reported a significant amount of cash flow used in operations during the third quarter of 2025, with figures indicating around $13.3 million to $14.3 million in cash outflow. This level of cash usage can be a point of concern for investors, impacting the stock's performance.
**3. Market Reaction to Earnings Outlook:** The market had anticipated a more robust outlook for Kratos. When the Q4 2025 guidance did not meet these higher expectations, the stock reacted negatively, leading to a notable sell-off immediately after the earnings announcement.
**4. Strategic Acquisition of Orbit Technologies Ltd.:** Concurrent with the earnings release, Kratos announced its intent to acquire Orbit Technologies Ltd. for $356.3 million. While intended to enhance capabilities in satellite-based communications, the timing and size of a major acquisition can sometimes introduce short-term uncertainty or perceived integration risks for investors, contributing to downward pressure.
**5. Existing High Valuation:** Leading up to this period, Kratos's stock was already trading at a significantly high price-to-earnings ratio compared to the industry median. This high valuation could have made the stock particularly sensitive to any news perceived as negative, such as a weaker future guidance, amplifying the downward movement.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KTOS Return | 52% | -29% | -47% | 97% | 30% | 169% | 294% |
| Peers Return | 7% | 7% | -3% | 14% | -21% | -3% | -4% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KTOS Win Rate | 58% | 17% | 33% | 83% | 58% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 27% | 28% | 30% | 23% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KTOS Max Drawdown | -43% | -30% | -53% | -3% | -17% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -46% | -7% | -16% | -9% | -24% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AIR, MTRN, IRBT, APEX, BETA. See KTOS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | KTOS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -72.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 266.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 768 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -51.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 179 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -34.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 167 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -80.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 415.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4329 days | 1480 days |
Compare to AIR, MTRN, IRBT, APEX, BETA
In The Past
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions's stock fell -72.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/17/2021. A -72.7% loss requires a 266.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to KTOS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Kratos Defense & Security Solutions
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 72.78 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.8 |
| Rev LTM | 1,509 |
| Op Inc LTM | 85 |
| FCF LTM | -60 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -28 |
| CFO LTM | 1 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 20 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -4.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -2.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.8 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | 28.9 |
| P/E | 107.0 |
| P/CFO | 7.2 |
| Total Yield | 0.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.8% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 11.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 42.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 15.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 63.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 28.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 0.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 2.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kratos Government Solutions | 825 | 677 | 580 | 561 | 556 |
| Unmanned Systems | 212 | 222 | 232 | 187 | 161 |
| Total | 1,037 | 898 | 812 | 748 | 718 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kratos Government Solutions | 53 | 27 | 42 | 44 | 45 |
| Unmanned Systems | 4 | -3 | 13 | 9 | 6 |
| Merger and acquisition related expenses | -0 | ||||
| Stock compensation expense | -25 | ||||
| Corporate activities | -27 | -28 | -23 | -13 | |
| Total | 31 | -3 | 28 | 29 | 38 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kratos Government Solutions | 1,190 | 1,105 | 908 | 877 | 778 |
| Unmanned Systems | 379 | 350 | 327 | 292 | 246 |
| Corporate Assets | 64 | ||||
| Corporate activities | 97 | 355 | 393 | 159 | |
| Discontinued operations | 0 | 3 | |||
| Total | 1,633 | 1,552 | 1,590 | 1,563 | 1,186 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/28/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/29/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/29/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2132024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 10/1/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/25/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/26/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/25/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/25/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/26/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/27/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/26/2021 |
External Quote Links
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