Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $69.9 | Market Cap: $11.9 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $69.9Market Cap: $11.9 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 12x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 475x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 779x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include Drone Technology, Machine Learning, Show more. | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 156% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.3% | |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 208% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.0% | |
| Key risksKTOS key risks include [1] margin erosion from cost overruns on fixed-price contracts, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include Drone Technology, Machine Learning, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 12x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 475x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 779x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 156% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.3% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 208% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.0% |
| Key risksKTOS key risks include [1] margin erosion from cost overruns on fixed-price contracts, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
KTOS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) experienced a notable increase in its stock value, with a daily gain of 7.13% on December 3, 2025. This movement can be attributed to several key developments for the company leading up to and around that date.
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results: Kratos reported robust financial performance for its third quarter of 2025 on November 4, 2025. The company surpassed expectations with its revenue reaching $347.6 million, marking a significant 26% year-over-year increase. Additionally, Kratos' net income saw a substantial rise of 171.9% during this period.
2. Strategic Acquisition of Orbit Technologies Ltd: On November 4, 2025, Kratos announced its intent to acquire Israel-based Orbit Technologies Ltd for $356.3 million. This strategic acquisition was likely perceived by investors as a move to expand Kratos' technological capabilities and market presence, contributing to positive sentiment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KTOS Return | 52% | -29% | -47% | 97% | 30% | 177% | 306% |
| Peers Return | 1% | 8% | 28% | 4% | 15% | 34% | 126% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KTOS Win Rate | 58% | 17% | 33% | 83% | 58% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 55% | 57% | 47% | 58% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KTOS Max Drawdown | -43% | -30% | -53% | -3% | -17% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -30% | -13% | -5% | -19% | -5% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LMT, NOC, RTX, AVAV, LHX. See KTOS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | KTOS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -72.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 266.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 768 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -51.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 179 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -34.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 167 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -80.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 415.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4,329 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to AIR, MTRN, IRBT, APEX, BETA
In The Past
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions's stock fell -72.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/17/2021. A -72.7% loss requires a 266.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to KTOS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Kratos Defense & Security Solutions
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 253.91 |
| Mkt Cap | 66.4 |
| Rev LTM | 31,150 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,232 |
| FCF LTM | 1,999 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,983 |
| CFO LTM | 2,972 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,000 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 66.4 |
| P/S | 2.6 |
| P/EBIT | 21.6 |
| P/E | 30.6 |
| P/CFO | 20.5 |
| Total Yield | 4.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 17.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 34.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 66.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -2.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 5.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 25.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -5.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kratos Government Solutions | 825 | 677 | 580 | 561 | 556 |
| Unmanned Systems | 212 | 222 | 232 | 187 | 161 |
| Total | 1,037 | 898 | 812 | 748 | 718 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kratos Government Solutions | 53 | 27 | 42 | 44 | 45 |
| Unmanned Systems | 4 | -3 | 13 | 9 | 6 |
| Merger and acquisition related expenses | -0 | ||||
| Stock compensation expense | -25 | ||||
| Corporate activities | -27 | -28 | -23 | -13 | |
| Total | 31 | -3 | 28 | 29 | 38 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kratos Government Solutions | 1,190 | 1,105 | 908 | 877 | 778 |
| Unmanned Systems | 379 | 350 | 327 | 292 | 246 |
| Corporate Assets | 64 | ||||
| Corporate activities | 97 | 355 | 393 | 159 | |
| Discontinued operations | 0 | 3 | |||
| Total | 1,633 | 1,552 | 1,590 | 1,563 | 1,186 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | -14.2% | -15.1% | -15.2% |
| 8/7/2025 | 8.1% | 17.0% | 8.6% |
| 5/7/2025 | -5.1% | -7.0% | 12.2% |
| 2/26/2025 | 5.2% | 11.4% | 26.1% |
| 11/7/2024 | 9.0% | 6.1% | 14.3% |
| 8/7/2024 | -1.6% | -1.1% | 5.1% |
| 5/7/2024 | 5.8% | 6.9% | 10.9% |
| 2/13/2024 | 17.0% | 13.4% | -2.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 13 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 9.0% | 6.9% | 12.3% |
| Median Negative | -5.1% | -9.3% | -11.9% |
| Max Positive | 17.0% | 22.7% | 30.0% |
| Max Negative | -22.3% | -16.1% | -36.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/28/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/29/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/29/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2132024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 10/1/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/25/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/26/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/25/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/25/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/26/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/27/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/26/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
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| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |