Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -11%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -45%
 
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
  
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Aviation Simulation & Training, Advanced Air Mobility, and Drone Technology.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Aviation Simulation & Training, Advanced Air Mobility, and Drone Technology.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -11%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -45%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CAE Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points highlighting why CAE's stock moved by approximately 0.9% during the period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Stronger-than-expected Q2 FY2026 Financial Results.
CAE Inc. reported its second-quarter fiscal year 2026 earnings on November 12, 2025, surpassing market expectations. The company announced an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.23 against a forecast of $0.20 and revenue of $1.24 billion against a predicted $1.14 billion. This positive earnings surprise led to a 1.31% rise in CAE's stock.

2. Takeover Speculation.
On November 28, 2025, CAE Inc.'s stock increased by 1.3% amid speculation of a potential takeover. Reports suggested that the Canadian aerospace and defense company had attracted interest from a U.S. private equity firm with a history of investments in the defense and aerospace industries.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CAE Return5%-9%-23%12%18%5%1%
Peers Return-11%-2%-3%14%-2%47%40%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CAE Win Rate58%50%50%50%33%60% 
Peers Win Rate8%8%10%12%5%31% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CAE Max Drawdown-62%-20%-39%0%-25%-17% 
Peers Max Drawdown-15%-5%-7%-0%-2%-0% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FLY, ATRO, BETA, DFSC, PEW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCAES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-55.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven122.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-68.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven213.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven382 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-18.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven22.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven136 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-69.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven231.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2871 days1480 days

Compare to FLY, ATRO, BETA, DFSC, PEW


In The Past

CAE's stock fell -55.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/9/2021. A -55.0% loss requires a 122.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About CAE (CAE)

Better Bets than CAE (CAE)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CAE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for CAE

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CAEFLYATROBETADFSCPEWMedian
NameCAE Firefly .AstronicsBETA Tec.DEFSEC T.GrabAGun. 
Mkt Price27.1818.5551.7229.503.543.5622.87
Mkt Cap8.7-1.8---5.3
Rev LTM4,734101831-4-466
Op Inc LTM614-21150--9-21
FCF LTM442-19951--9-21
FCF 3Y Avg214-8--11-8
CFO LTM894-16574--9-32
CFO 3Y Avg673-22--10-22

Growth & Margins

CAEFLYATROBETADFSCPEWMedian
NameCAE Firefly .AstronicsBETA Tec.DEFSEC T.GrabAGun. 
Rev Chg LTM9.0%-6.2%-166.4%-9.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg10.2%-19.5%-94.3%-19.5%
Rev Chg Q2.4%-3.8%-330.2%-3.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.6%-0.9%-35.8%-0.9%
Op Mgn LTM13.0%-209.3%6.0%--209.1%--101.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg12.0%-2.2%--699.5%-2.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.0%-1.7%-86.7%-1.7%
CFO/Rev LTM18.9%-164.1%8.9%--212.3%--77.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg15.1%-2.5%--716.7%-2.5%
FCF/Rev LTM9.3%-197.5%6.1%--216.3%--95.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg4.7%-0.8%--777.8%-0.8%

Valuation

CAEFLYATROBETADFSCPEWMedian
NameCAE Firefly .AstronicsBETA Tec.DEFSEC T.GrabAGun. 
Mkt Cap8.7-1.8---5.3
P/S2.0-1.9---2.0
P/EBIT12.7-32.3---22.5
P/E22.6--523.2----250.3
P/CFO10.5-22.0---16.2
Total Yield4.4%--0.2%---2.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%-0.0%---0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.6%--0.5%---1.1%
D/E0.4-0.2---0.3
Net D/E0.3-0.2---0.3

Returns

CAEFLYATROBETADFSCPEWMedian
NameCAE Firefly .AstronicsBETA Tec.DEFSEC T.GrabAGun. 
1M Rtn-1.6%-22.0%6.1%--10.6%-20.0%-10.6%
3M Rtn1.9%-58.2%40.5%-19.6%-33.0%1.9%
6M Rtn4.1%-61.1%---32.6%
12M Rtn15.0%-215.2%---115.1%
3Y Rtn29.7%-466.5%---248.1%
1M Excs Rtn-1.6%-22.0%6.1%--10.6%-20.0%-10.6%
3M Excs Rtn-3.4%-62.0%27.1%-13.0%-42.0%-3.4%
6M Excs Rtn-10.6%-46.4%---17.9%
12M Excs Rtn2.3%-206.7%---104.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-45.1%-493.7%---224.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Civil Aviation2,4362,1661,6181,4132,168
Defense and Security1,8471,8441,6021,2171,331
Healthcare  151352124
Total4,2834,0113,3712,9823,623


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Civil Aviation4424302246473
Defense and Security-627365616105
Healthcare  426-41
Total-18546628448537


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Civil Aviation6,1325,8525,2704,8485,090
Defense and Security2,8693,4363,1631,5621,768
Assets not included in assets employed by segment8331,1488772,0891,373
Healthcare  269250254
Total9,83410,4369,5798,7488,484


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,096,008
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120258.6%
Average Daily Volume601,185
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.15
Basic Shares Quantity320,370,583
Short % of Basic Shares1.0%

Returns Analyses

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
630202581220256-K 6/30/2025
3312025620202540-F 3/31/2025
1231202421320256-K 12/31/2024
9302024111220246-K 9/30/2024
630202481320246-K 6/30/2024
3312024621202440-F 3/31/2024
1231202321420246-K 12/31/2023
9302023111420236-K 9/30/2023
630202380920236-K 6/30/2023
3312023622202340-F 3/31/2023
1231202221420236-K 12/31/2022
9302022111020226-K 9/30/2022
630202281020226-K 6/30/2022
3312022623202240-F 3/31/2022
1231202121120226-K 12/31/2021
9302021111220216-K 9/30/2021