Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.4%, Dist 3Y High is -4.4%
Key risks
CAE key risks include [1] significant margin pressure from a portfolio of fixed-price "Legacy" defense contracts that lack cost escalation provisions and [2] a high debt load that is increasingly expensive to service amid interest rate volatility.
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 5.1%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -3.8%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -32%
 
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Aviation Simulation & Training, Advanced Air Mobility, and Drone Technology.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 5.1%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Aviation Simulation & Training, Advanced Air Mobility, and Drone Technology.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.4%, Dist 3Y High is -4.4%
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -3.8%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -32%
6 Key risks
CAE key risks include [1] significant margin pressure from a portfolio of fixed-price "Legacy" defense contracts that lack cost escalation provisions and [2] a high debt load that is increasingly expensive to service amid interest rate volatility.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CAE Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

CAE's stock experienced a significant upward movement, including a 5.39% change on December 12, 2025, influenced by several key factors in the period leading up to mid-December 2025. 1. CAE's Q2 2026 Earnings Exceeded Expectations.

On November 11, 2025, CAE announced its second-quarter results, which surpassed analyst expectations. This positive earnings report contributed to increased investor confidence and a rise in share price. 2. Analysts Issued "Moderate Buy" Ratings and Raised Price Targets.

In mid-November 2025, analysts reacted positively to CAE's performance, with the company receiving an average recommendation of "Moderate Buy" on November 13, 2025. Notably, TD Securities raised its price target for CAE to C$46.00, and Scotiabank forecasted strong price appreciation for the stock on November 14, 2025.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CAE Return5%-9%-23%12%18%14%10%
Peers Return4%9%-4%29%1%49%110%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CAE Win Rate58%50%50%50%33%58% 
Peers Win Rate50%50%47%53%57%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CAE Max Drawdown-62%-20%-39%0%-25%-17% 
Peers Max Drawdown-44%-14%-25%-12%-16%-15% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LHX, LMT, BA, TXT, KTOS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCAES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-55.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven122.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-68.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven213.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven382 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-18.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven22.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven136 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-69.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven231.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2871 days1480 days

Compare to FLY, ATRO, BETA, DFSC, PEW


In The Past

CAE's stock fell -55.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/9/2021. A -55.0% loss requires a 122.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About CAE (CAE)

Better Bets than CAE (CAE)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CAE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for CAE

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CAELHXLMTBATXTKTOSMedian
NameCAE L3Harris.Lockheed.Boeing Textron Kratos D. 
Mkt Price28.64278.72474.79206.3387.4469.77146.88
Mkt Cap9.252.1110.1156.815.511.933.8
Rev LTM4,83421,37373,34980,75714,2371,28517,805
Op Inc LTM6222,3665,997-8,42489724760
FCF LTM4682,1644,593-6,350695-93581
FCF 3Y Avg2381,8285,634-3,029760-42499
CFO LTM9462,5076,361-3,7161,058-91,002
CFO 3Y Avg6982,2087,386-9761,14022919

Growth & Margins

CAELHXLMTBATXTKTOSMedian
NameCAE L3Harris.Lockheed.Boeing Textron Kratos D. 
Rev Chg LTM9.1%2.9%2.9%10.2%1.8%14.0%6.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg9.1%8.4%4.3%10.1%4.3%14.3%8.8%
Rev Chg Q8.8%2.4%8.8%30.4%5.1%26.0%8.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.1%0.6%2.1%7.2%1.2%5.9%2.1%
Op Mgn LTM12.9%11.1%8.2%-10.4%6.3%1.9%7.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg11.9%10.4%11.0%-7.2%6.9%2.6%8.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%0.2%0.0%2.0%0.4%-0.1%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM19.6%11.7%8.7%-4.6%7.4%-0.7%8.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg15.4%11.0%10.5%-1.3%8.2%2.0%9.3%
FCF/Rev LTM9.7%10.1%6.3%-7.9%4.9%-7.3%5.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.1%9.2%8.0%-3.9%5.5%-3.5%5.3%

Valuation

CAELHXLMTBATXTKTOSMedian
NameCAE L3Harris.Lockheed.Boeing Textron Kratos D. 
Mkt Cap9.252.1110.1156.815.511.933.8
P/S1.92.71.62.01.112.12.0
P/EBIT11.922.619.3-23.713.6475.016.4
P/E21.133.727.6-16.718.2778.924.3
P/CFO9.722.818.2-44.114.2-1,811.512.0
Total Yield4.7%4.5%5.6%-6.0%5.6%0.1%4.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.6%2.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.9%4.2%4.8%-2.6%4.9%-0.8%3.5%
D/E0.40.20.20.30.20.00.2
Net D/E0.30.20.20.20.1-0.00.2

Returns

CAELHXLMTBATXTKTOSMedian
NameCAE L3Harris.Lockheed.Boeing Textron Kratos D. 
1M Rtn10.7%-3.1%1.6%7.6%9.2%-0.7%4.6%
3M Rtn6.5%-0.7%1.1%-3.9%5.7%-7.9%0.2%
6M Rtn7.8%13.0%2.8%4.4%14.2%65.5%10.4%
12M Rtn21.4%30.0%-0.4%19.2%9.3%156.0%20.3%
3Y Rtn47.6%39.3%6.9%11.7%25.3%657.5%32.3%
1M Excs Rtn10.0%-3.9%0.9%6.8%8.5%-1.4%3.9%
3M Excs Rtn4.8%-2.4%-0.3%-5.7%2.9%-14.8%-1.3%
6M Excs Rtn-4.6%0.6%-9.5%-8.0%1.8%53.1%-2.0%
12M Excs Rtn11.9%16.2%-12.3%10.5%-2.9%148.9%11.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-31.6%-31.9%-62.5%-57.7%-47.0%585.0%-39.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Civil Aviation6,1325,8525,2704,8485,090
Defense and Security2,8693,4363,1631,5621,768
Assets not included in assets employed by segment8338388772,0891,373
Healthcare 310269250254
Total9,83410,4369,5798,7488,484


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,143,653
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-11.3%
Average Daily Volume594,906
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.60
Basic Shares Quantity321,304,348
Short % of Basic Shares0.7%

Returns Analyses

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
9302025111220256-K 9/30/2025
630202581220256-K 6/30/2025
3312025620202540-F 3/31/2025
1231202421320256-K 12/31/2024
9302024111220246-K 9/30/2024
630202481320246-K 6/30/2024
3312024621202440-F 3/31/2024
1231202321420246-K 12/31/2023
9302023111420236-K 9/30/2023
630202380920236-K 6/30/2023
3312023622202340-F 3/31/2023
1231202221420236-K 12/31/2022
9302022111020226-K 9/30/2022
630202281020226-K 6/30/2022
3312022623202240-F 3/31/2022
1231202121120226-K 12/31/2021