CAE (CAE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $27.46 | Market Cap: $8.8 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
CAE (CAE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $27.46Market Cap: $8.8 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -11%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -45% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Aviation Simulation & Training, Advanced Air Mobility, and Drone Technology. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Aviation Simulation & Training, Advanced Air Mobility, and Drone Technology. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -11%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -45% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CAE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points highlighting why CAE's stock moved by approximately 0.9% during the period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Stronger-than-expected Q2 FY2026 Financial Results.
CAE Inc. reported its second-quarter fiscal year 2026 earnings on November 12, 2025, surpassing market expectations. The company announced an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.23 against a forecast of $0.20 and revenue of $1.24 billion against a predicted $1.14 billion. This positive earnings surprise led to a 1.31% rise in CAE's stock.
2. Takeover Speculation.
On November 28, 2025, CAE Inc.'s stock increased by 1.3% amid speculation of a potential takeover. Reports suggested that the Canadian aerospace and defense company had attracted interest from a U.S. private equity firm with a history of investments in the defense and aerospace industries.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CAE Return | 5% | -9% | -23% | 12% | 18% | 5% | 1% |
| Peers Return | -11% | -2% | -3% | 14% | -2% | 47% | 40% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CAE Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 33% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 8% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 5% | 31% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CAE Max Drawdown | -62% | -20% | -39% | 0% | -25% | -17% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -5% | -7% | -0% | -2% | -0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FLY, ATRO, BETA, DFSC, PEW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CAE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -55.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 122.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -68.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 213.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 382 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -18.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 136 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -69.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 231.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2871 days | 1480 days |
Compare to FLY, ATRO, BETA, DFSC, PEW
In The Past
CAE's stock fell -55.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/9/2021. A -55.0% loss requires a 122.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| How Low Can CAE Stock Really Go? | Return | |
| Fundamental Metrics: ... |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CAE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for CAE
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 22.87 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.3 |
| Rev LTM | 466 |
| Op Inc LTM | 21 |
| FCF LTM | 21 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 8 |
| CFO LTM | 32 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 22 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 19.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -101.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -77.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -95.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 0.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.3 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/EBIT | 22.5 |
| P/E | -250.3 |
| P/CFO | 16.2 |
| Total Yield | 2.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.1% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -10.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 32.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 115.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 248.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -10.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 17.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 104.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 224.3% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civil Aviation | 2,436 | 2,166 | 1,618 | 1,413 | 2,168 |
| Defense and Security | 1,847 | 1,844 | 1,602 | 1,217 | 1,331 |
| Healthcare | 151 | 352 | 124 | ||
| Total | 4,283 | 4,011 | 3,371 | 2,982 | 3,623 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civil Aviation | 442 | 430 | 224 | 6 | 473 |
| Defense and Security | -627 | 36 | 56 | 16 | 105 |
| Healthcare | 4 | 26 | -41 | ||
| Total | -185 | 466 | 284 | 48 | 537 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civil Aviation | 6,132 | 5,852 | 5,270 | 4,848 | 5,090 |
| Defense and Security | 2,869 | 3,436 | 3,163 | 1,562 | 1,768 |
| Assets not included in assets employed by segment | 833 | 1,148 | 877 | 2,089 | 1,373 |
| Healthcare | 269 | 250 | 254 | ||
| Total | 9,834 | 10,436 | 9,579 | 8,748 | 8,484 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8122025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 6202025 | 40-F 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2132025 | 6-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 6212024 | 40-F 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2142024 | 6-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 6222023 | 40-F 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2142023 | 6-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8102022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 6232022 | 40-F 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2112022 | 6-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11122021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
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| FinViz |