Aeva Technologies (AEVA)
Market Price (12/8/2025): $15.09 | Market Cap: $873.5 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
Aeva Technologies (AEVA)
Market Price (12/8/2025): $15.09Market Cap: $873.5 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 90% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -133 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -876% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Autonomous Technologies, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 55x | |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 224% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -751%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -786% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -23% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 115% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 90% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Autonomous Technologies, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -133 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -876% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 55x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 224% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -751%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -786% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -23% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 115% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AEVA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Major Exclusive LiDAR Deal with European Automaker. Aeva Technologies secured a decade-long exclusive deal on December 3, 2025, to supply 4D LiDAR technology to a leading European automaker for its global Level 3 automated driving platform. This significant announcement led to a substantial surge in Aeva's stock, with a reported 25.71% one-day return and an 8% increase on the day of the news.
2. Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results and Capital Infusion. On November 5, 2025, Aeva reported its Q3 2025 earnings, showing a revenue increase to $3.6 million, up from $2.3 million in Q3 2024. The company also reduced its GAAP operating loss and bolstered its liquidity with a $100 million strategic investment from Apollo Global Management.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AEVA Return | - | -54% | -82% | -44% | 25% | 218% | -82% |
| Peers Return | 176% | -24% | -59% | 51% | -18% | -14% | -9% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AEVA Win Rate | 60% | 42% | 25% | 50% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 38% | 47% | 50% | 38% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AEVA Max Drawdown | - | -57% | -84% | -65% | -40% | -45% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -25% | -61% | -31% | -65% | -49% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: OUST, LAZR, MVIS, MBLY, AUR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/8/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AEVA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -98.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 4786.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -24.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 40 days | 148 days |
Compare to GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, CHOW
In The Past
Aeva Technologies's stock fell -98.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/10/2021. A -98.0% loss requires a 4786.3% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AEVA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.3% | 8.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.7% | 14.7% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.0% | 9.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.3% | 8.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.7% | 14.7% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.0% | 9.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Aeva Technologies
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 7.97 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.2 |
| Rev LTM | 45 |
| Op Inc LTM | -186 |
| FCF LTM | -89 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -100 |
| CFO LTM | -86 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -95 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 49.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 26.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 6.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -596.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -636.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 95.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -512.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -362.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -531.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -380.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.2 |
| P/S | 33.5 |
| P/EBIT | -6.3 |
| P/E | -9.0 |
| P/CFO | -6.8 |
| Total Yield | -13.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -31.9% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -18.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -26.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -14.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 15.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -24.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -40.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -20.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -59.7% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | -6.1% | -18.2% | |
| 7/31/2025 | -15.0% | -33.4% | -20.6% |
| 3/19/2025 | 34.7% | 86.5% | 134.4% |
| 11/6/2024 | -0.2% | -10.7% | 8.1% |
| 8/7/2024 | 2.1% | -4.3% | -13.2% |
| 3/5/2024 | 7.9% | 8.9% | -17.4% |
| 11/8/2023 | 2.6% | -10.1% | -13.5% |
| 8/8/2023 | -8.2% | -7.3% | -13.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 5 | 6 |
| # Negative | 8 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.8% | 18.0% | 9.7% |
| Median Negative | -5.9% | -10.7% | -15.5% |
| Max Positive | 34.7% | 86.5% | 134.4% |
| Max Negative | -15.0% | -33.4% | -35.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5152025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8102023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5122023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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