AEye (LIDR)
Market Price (12/14/2025): $2.385 | Market Cap: $74.6 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
AEye (LIDR)
Market Price (12/14/2025): $2.385Market Cap: $74.6 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -107% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -87%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -165% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -32 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -17762% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Autonomous Technologies, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Future of Freight. Themes include Machine Vision, Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 405x | |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 203%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 112% | ||
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -51%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -52% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13765%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13830% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 958% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -49% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 216% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -107% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Autonomous Technologies, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Future of Freight. Themes include Machine Vision, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -87%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -165% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -32 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -17762% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 405x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 203%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 112% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -51%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -52% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13765%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13830% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 958% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -49% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 216% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LIDR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points highlighting why AEye (LIDR) stock moved by -16.3% during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 14, 2025:
**1. Persistent Profitability Challenges and Widening Losses in Q2 2025.**
AEye's second quarter 2025 earnings, reported on July 31, 2025, revealed an increase in GAAP net loss to $9.3 million from $8.0 million in Q1, and non-GAAP net loss rising to $6.7 million from $5.5 million. These widening losses underscored ongoing struggles with profitability, with net income remaining negative at over $8 million, and profitability ratios under severe pressure, including an EBIT margin reaching rock-bottom figures. The stock experienced significant volatility following this announcement, plunging 11.63% in the premarket session the day after earnings, indicating that this negative sentiment likely extended into the requested period.
**2. Negative Technical Signals and Stock Price Decline in Early December 2025.**
In early December 2025, AEye's stock exhibited significant downward movement. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, December 4, 2025, leading to a subsequent fall of -12.92% by December 12, 2025. Furthermore, the stock price decreased by -3.91% on December 12, 2025, alone and was down by -9.6% over the 10 days leading up to December 12, 2025.
**3. Overall Negative Stock Evaluation and Falling Trend.**
Throughout the period, AEye (LIDR) held several negative signals and was noted to be within a very wide and falling trend, resulting in a negative evaluation of the stock. Both short and long-term Moving Averages issued sell signals, contributing to a negative forecast for the stock's performance.
**4. Deteriorating Financial Metrics Despite Strategic Achievements.**
Despite showcasing strategic achievements such as new business wins and integration with NVIDIA's DRIVE AGX Orin platform, the company's immediate financial metrics continued to deteriorate. The contrast between strategic wins and a weakening financial performance likely weighed on investor confidence during the period.
**5. Shareholder Dilution from Capital Raise.**
The company's weighted average shares increased from 17.4 million in Q1 to 19.1 million in Q2 2025, indicating dilution for existing shareholders, likely a result of capital raises. This increase in outstanding shares can place downward pressure on a stock's price.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LIDR Return | � | � | -90% | -84% | -45% | 94% | � |
| Peers Return | � | -43% | -72% | -19% | -14% | 67% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LIDR Win Rate | � | 36% | 42% | 25% | 33% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 71% | 40% | 33% | 48% | 42% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LIDR Max Drawdown | � | � | -90% | -86% | -60% | -60% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | -46% | -74% | -51% | -59% | -53% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: OUST, AEVA, MVIS, LAZR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LIDR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -99.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20423.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, CHOW
In The Past
AEye's stock fell -99.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/8/2021. A -99.5% loss requires a 20423.4% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Is AEye Stock Built to Withstand a Pullback? | Return | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| AEye Stock Up 3x Last Week, More To Come? | July 28th, 2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |
| Is AEye Stock Built to Withstand a Pullback? | |
| ARTICLES | |
| AEye Stock Up 3x Last Week, More To Come? |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LIDR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.7% | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.6% | 11.6% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.7% | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.6% | 11.6% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for AEye
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 2.36 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| Rev LTM | 15 |
| Op Inc LTM | -101 |
| FCF LTM | -59 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -79 |
| CFO LTM | -58 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -75 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 49.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 26.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -875.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -2,366.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 72.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -751.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -1,935.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -785.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -2,009.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| P/S | 55.4 |
| P/EBIT | -4.4 |
| P/E | -4.1 |
| P/CFO | -6.3 |
| Total Yield | -24.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -65.3% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -16.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -12.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 111.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | -64.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -19.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -26.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 90.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -141.0% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | 3.4% | 4.7% | |
| 7/31/2025 | -20.2% | -21.3% | -21.9% |
| 5/8/2025 | 8.0% | 23.2% | 41.5% |
| 2/20/2025 | -8.5% | -27.8% | -17.7% |
| 11/12/2024 | -6.6% | -21.4% | -5.0% |
| 8/5/2024 | -7.4% | -18.5% | -16.3% |
| 3/26/2024 | -19.1% | -16.6% | -36.6% |
| 11/9/2023 | -3.4% | -11.5% | -32.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 6 | 4 | 3 |
| # Negative | 8 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 3.7% | 12.5% | 13.2% |
| Median Negative | -7.9% | -21.4% | -27.1% |
| Max Positive | 11.3% | 23.2% | 41.5% |
| Max Negative | -20.2% | -37.1% | -46.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2242025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11142024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5142024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5112023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8152022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5132022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |