Aebi Schmidt (AEBI)
Market Price (12/25/2025): $13.12 | Market Cap: $1.0 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Agricultural & Farm Machinery
Aebi Schmidt (AEBI)
Market Price (12/25/2025): $13.12Market Cap: $1.0 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Agricultural & Farm Machinery
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Urban & Airport Operations. Themes include Municipal & Airport Fleet Electrification, Automated Urban Maintenance, and Resource-Efficient Public Works Equipment. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.4%, Dist 3Y High is -3.4% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 68% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 34x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 97x | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.9% | ||
| Key risksAEBI key risks include [1] customer reluctance to invest amid a challenging macroeconomic environment and [2] the successful integration of its merger with The Shyft Group and realization of targeted synergies. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Urban & Airport Operations. Themes include Municipal & Airport Fleet Electrification, Automated Urban Maintenance, and Resource-Efficient Public Works Equipment. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.4%, Dist 3Y High is -3.4% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 68% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 34x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 97x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.9% |
| Key risksAEBI key risks include [1] customer reluctance to invest amid a challenging macroeconomic environment and [2] the successful integration of its merger with The Shyft Group and realization of targeted synergies. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
The stock movement of Aebi Schmidt (AEBI) from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 26, 2025, can be attributed to several key factors, primarily revolving around its merger with The Shyft Group and subsequent financial reporting.1. Successful Merger and Integration Progress: Aebi Schmidt completed its merger with The Shyft Group on July 1, 2025, creating a global leader in specialty vehicles. The company reported good progress on merger integration and confirmed that it expects to deliver synergies of at least $25 million to $30 million, with additional significant upside identified. This strategic combination and the positive outlook on synergy realization likely contributed to investor confidence during the period.
2. Q3 2025 Earnings Report and Profitability Step-Up: On November 13, 2025, Aebi Schmidt announced its Q3 2025 earnings. While the company missed EPS and revenue forecasts, the stock still rose 3.91% pre-market. The company highlighted a "significant step-up in profitability" following the Shyft Group integration, with adjusted EBITDA up 25% year-over-year. They also reaffirmed their full-year 2025 guidance for sales and adjusted EBITDA, indicating strong operational performance despite some misses.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 7.3% change in AEBI stock from 9/25/2025 to 12/25/2025 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 9252025 | 12252025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 12.22 | 13.12 | 7.35% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | � | � |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | � | � |
| P/E Multiple | � | � | � |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 77.60 | 77.60 | 0.00% |
| Cumulative Contribution | � |
Market Drivers
9/25/2025 to 12/25/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AEBI | 7.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.9% | 41.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 4.2% | 38.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
6/26/2025 to 12/25/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AEBI | ||
| Market (SPY) | 13.1% | 44.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 8.8% | 38.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/25/2024 to 12/25/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AEBI | ||
| Market (SPY) | 15.8% | 44.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 18.6% | 38.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/26/2023 to 12/25/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AEBI | ||
| Market (SPY) | 48.3% | 44.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 41.7% | 38.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AEBI Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 18% | 115% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AEBI Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AEBI Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DE, AGCO, GENC, WNC, AEBI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/24/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
AEBI has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 273 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 232 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 312 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 172.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,463 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -22.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -22.6% loss requires a 29.2% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Aebi Schmidt (AEBI):
- Oshkosh Corporation for municipal maintenance vehicles: Just as Oshkosh builds specialized trucks for fire, refuse, and defense, Aebi Schmidt provides purpose-built vehicles and equipment for municipal, airport, and agricultural maintenance tasks like snow removal, street sweeping, and green space care.
- John Deere for urban and alpine maintenance machinery: Similar to how John Deere provides robust equipment for agriculture and landscaping, Aebi Schmidt specializes in heavy-duty machinery for maintaining urban infrastructure and challenging alpine terrain, including mowers, transporters, and specialized clearing vehicles.
- Caterpillar for infrastructure maintenance: Think of Aebi Schmidt as providing heavy-duty equipment for keeping public infrastructure clear and maintained, much like Caterpillar provides equipment for building it, focusing on street sweepers, snow plows, and other large-scale clearing tools.
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```html- Snow Removal Equipment: Machines and attachments designed for clearing snow from roads, sidewalks, and other surfaces, including snow plows and snow blowers.
- Spreading Equipment: Vehicles and attachments used for applying salt, sand, brine, or other de-icing agents to roads for winter safety.
- Street Sweepers: A range of compact and truck-mounted vehicles designed for efficient cleaning and debris removal from streets and public areas.
- Multifunctional Transporters and Mowers: Specialized vehicles for year-round municipal and agricultural tasks, including grass cutting, transport, and various attachments.
- Digital Solutions & Connectivity: Software and hardware systems providing telematics, fleet management, and operational optimization for their equipment.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Aebi Schmidt (symbol: AEBI) primarily operates on a Business-to-Business (B2B) model, selling its specialized vehicles, equipment, and services to organizations rather than individual consumers. The company is a leading provider of intelligent solutions for the cleaning and maintenance of traffic areas and for the treatment of demanding terrain.
While Aebi Schmidt generally has a broad and diverse customer base, making the identification of specific "major customer companies" (with individual stock symbols) challenging as they are not typically disclosed due to competitive reasons and the nature of their sales model, their key customer categories include:
- Municipalities and Public Authorities: This constitutes a significant portion of their clientele. These customers include cities, towns, regional governments, and national road maintenance authorities responsible for vital public services such as street cleaning, winter maintenance (snow plowing, de-icing), and general infrastructure upkeep.
- Airports: Aebi Schmidt is a leading supplier of ground support equipment for airports. Major international and regional airports globally are key customers, utilizing their specialized runway sweepers, snow removal vehicles, and de-icing equipment to ensure operational safety and efficiency.
- Service Providers and Contractors: Companies that offer specialized maintenance services (e.g., street cleaning, winter maintenance, green area upkeep) to municipalities, private industrial parks, large commercial properties, or airports often purchase Aebi Schmidt's equipment to perform their contracted services.
- Agricultural Businesses: Through its Aebi brand, the company also serves agricultural businesses, particularly those operating in challenging terrains (like mountainous regions), with specialized tractors and implements. These customers are typically individual farms or agricultural cooperatives.
Due to the nature of their business, where equipment is sold to governmental bodies, airport authorities, or private contractors (often local or regional entities), specific publicly traded companies that represent a dominant share of Aebi Schmidt's revenue are not typically identified or disclosed. Instead, their sales are distributed across numerous entities within these categories globally.
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Barend Fruithof, Group CEO
Barend Fruithof was appointed Group CEO of Aebi Schmidt in January 2017 and has served in this role for over eight years. Under his leadership, the company has experienced steady growth. Following the merger with The Shyft Group, he also assumed the role of Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Aebi Schmidt Group. The Swiss Aebi company, which merged with the German Schmidt company in 2007, has seen significant development under Fruithof's tenure.
Marco Portmann, Group CFO
Marco Portmann was named Group Chief Financial Officer of the Aebi Schmidt Group as part of the new executive team following the merger with The Shyft Group. He brought over 20 years of experience to the role, having previously served as Chief Financial Officer at Swiss Steel Group, a leading European supplier of sustainably produced steels with €2.5 billion in revenues in 2024. Portmann was noted as the only external member of the new executive team. He acquired 5,000 shares of the company's common stock on August 15, 2025.
Thomas Schenkirsch, Chief Group Services | Deputy CEO
Thomas Schenkirsch serves as the Chief Group Services and Deputy CEO for the Aebi Schmidt Group.
Steffen Schewerda, President Vehicle Solutions | CEO North America
Steffen Schewerda holds the position of President Vehicle Solutions and CEO North America within the Aebi Schmidt Group.
Jacob Farmer, President Commercial & Fleet
Jacob Farmer is the President of Commercial & Fleet for the Aebi Schmidt Group.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Aebi Schmidt's business (AEBI) include macroeconomic cyclicality and customer investment reluctance, the integration of its merger with The Shyft Group and the realization of targeted synergies, and ongoing supply chain issues.
- Macroeconomic Cyclicality and Customer Reluctance to Invest: Aebi Schmidt is significantly exposed to macroeconomic cyclicality, including a reliance on public and governmental contracts, which are inherently cyclical. The company has observed a more challenging market environment, with rising interest rates and inflation contributing to a noticeable reluctance among customers to invest. This has specifically impacted demand for trailers in the USA and put pressure on the municipal sector in Europe.
- Integration of The Shyft Group Merger and Realization of Synergies: Aebi Schmidt recently completed a merger with The Shyft Group in July 2025. A key risk is the successful execution of post-merger integration and the realization of targeted synergies, which are projected to be between $25 million and $30 million. The dynamic operating environment, including the impact of tariffs, adds complexity to this integration process.
- Supply Chain Issues: The company faces risks associated with typical supply chain issues within its industry. In the past, the availability of components has directly hindered Aebi Schmidt's ability to deliver machines, indicating the operational impact of such disruptions.
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Aebi Schmidt (symbol: AEBI) operates in several addressable markets for its main products and services, primarily focusing on municipal and agricultural equipment. The addressable market sizes for their key product areas are as follows:
- Municipal Vehicles: The global municipal vehicles market was valued at approximately USD 14.27 billion in 2024, with projections to increase to USD 20.08 billion by 2031. This broad category encompasses many of Aebi Schmidt's offerings for urban and infrastructure maintenance.
- Winter Maintenance Equipment: The global snow removal market, which includes trucks, equipment, and accessories, was valued at USD 82.73 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach nearly USD 129.89 billion by 2032. More specifically, the global snow plow market was valued at US$ 937.5 million in 2023 and is projected to reach US$ 1,648.8 million by 2030. Additionally, the global market for connected winter maintenance equipment reached USD 4.3 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 8.2 billion by 2033.
- Street Cleaning Machines: The global street cleaning machine market size was valued at USD 2.51 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 3.79 billion by 2032. In North America, the street sweeper market alone was estimated at USD 870.1 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 1.56 billion by 2034.
- Agricultural Machinery: The European agricultural equipment market generated a revenue of USD 43.55 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to approximately USD 71.95 billion by 2033. Other estimates place the European agricultural equipment market size at USD 43.34 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 50.97 billion in 2030, or valued at USD 46.86 billion in 2024 and expected to reach USD 67.68 billion by 2033.
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Aebi Schmidt (AEBI) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market dynamics:- Synergies from the Shyft Group Merger: The successful merger with The Shyft Group, completed on July 1, 2025, is a significant driver. This combination created a global specialty vehicle leader with increased scale and expanded portfolio, enabling significant growth opportunities through cross-selling potential and operational efficiencies. The company anticipates delivering at least $25 to $30 million in synergies, with additional upside identified from cost savings and integration of production. These synergies are expected to contribute to above-market growth and margin expansion.
- Expansion and Strong Demand in North America: North America is a critical market for Aebi Schmidt, with the company aiming to generate more than half of its sales from this region due to its enormous growth potential. Recent acquisitions, such as the Snow Product Business of Oshkosh Corporation in mid-2023, have strengthened its position in sales, production, and after-sales in North American snow clearance. The company expects increased demand for walk-in vans and other opportunities to secure significant customer awards in this region. Business has been particularly strong in North America, with significant increases in both sales and profitability.
- Robust Order Backlog: A substantial order backlog provides strong visibility for future revenue. As of June 30, 2025, the combined company had an order backlog of $1.1 billion, securing a significant portion of planned revenue and supporting an expected ramp-up in the second half of 2025. This strong backlog indicates continued demand for Aebi Schmidt's specialized vehicles and attachments.
- Growth in Key End-Markets and Customer Segments: Aebi Schmidt is experiencing strong sales momentum in various end-markets. This includes significant airport and municipal deal wins, as well as solid customer quoting activity with parcel and commercial truck fleet customers. The company's focus on specialized vehicles for applications like snow and ice clearing, street sweeping, and agricultural machinery caters to non-discretionary infrastructure maintenance needs, ensuring consistent demand.
- Product Innovation and Digital Solutions: While not explicitly detailed as "new product launches" with specific names, Aebi Schmidt is a world-class specialty vehicles leader known for delivering innovative and tailored solutions. The company emphasizes sustainability and the careful use of resources in the development and manufacture of its products, including the demand for electrification. This ongoing commitment to innovation and adapting to market needs, such as developing efficient electric drives, is expected to maintain and grow its customer base and market share. The company also offers digital solutions and a comprehensive range of after-sales services, which can contribute to sustained revenue through customer loyalty and recurring service contracts.
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Share Repurchases
- Aebi Schmidt has committed to a competitive quarterly dividend and to return capital to shareholders over the long-term, with the first quarterly cash dividend of $0.025 per share declared in August 2025, payable on September 29, 2025.
- Prior to the merger with The Shyft Group, Aebi Schmidt Holding AG's equity capital amounted to CHF 27,932,000, divided into 2,793,200 registered shares, and there was no approved or conditional capital for repurchases.
Share Issuance
- On July 1, 2025, Aebi Schmidt completed a merger with The Shyft Group, Inc., where 1.040166432 shares of Aebi Schmidt Holding AG Common Stock were issued for each share of The Shyft Group.
- The combined company, now operating as Aebi Schmidt Group, has a fully diluted share count of 78.2 million.
- Following the merger, Aebi Schmidt shareholders own 52 percent of the combined company, and former Shyft shareholders own 48 percent.
Inbound Investments
- The merger with The Shyft Group, completed on July 1, 2025, significantly bolstered the company's financial position, resulting in a combined balance sheet equity of over $700 million (approximately 40% equity ratio) and net debt of $446 million as of June 30, 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In 2020, Aebi Schmidt acquired Finnish company Arctic Machine Oy and Canadian manufacturer Équipements Lourds Papineau (ELP) to strengthen its market position in Northern Europe and North America, respectively.
- In 2021, the company acquired Monroe Truck Equipment, a US-based truck and trailer equipment supplier with an annual turnover of approximately EUR 240 million, boosting Aebi Schmidt's North American market presence and projected revenue to EUR 800 million.
- In mid-2023, Aebi Schmidt acquired the Snow Product Business of Oshkosh Corporation in the USA, further strengthening its North American snow clearing and de-icing sector.
Capital Expenditures
- A significant investment was made in the expansion of the Chilton, Wisconsin plant between 2020 and mid-2021, representing the largest individual plant investment in many years to support growth in the US.
- The company prioritizes investments in sustainable innovation, with a major focus on the electrification of its product range, aiming to deliver electric sweepers by 2023 and electrify the entire fleet of compact sweepers by the end of 2024.
- Aebi Schmidt consistently invests in growth and cost-saving initiatives, including developing modern solutions and enhancing efficiency across its business units.
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to AEBI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.7% | 18.7% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.7% | 4.7% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.9% | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.6% | 2.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 6.0% | 6.0% | -0.4% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons for Aebi Schmidt
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 13.12 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.0 |
| Rev LTM | 1,638 |
| Op Inc LTM | 371 |
| FCF LTM | 108 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 386 |
| CFO LTM | 150 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 618 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -15.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -3.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | -4.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/13/2025 | 4.4% | 4.0% | 26.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 4.4% | 4.0% | 26.8% |
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | 4.4% | 4.0% | 26.8% |
| Max Negative | |||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11132025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8142025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 7032025 | 424B3 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 5122025 | S-4/A 12/31/2024 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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