Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.22 | Market Cap: $286.4 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Mortgage REITs
Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.22Market Cap: $286.4 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Mortgage REITs
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.8%, Dividend Yield is 14%, FCF Yield is 10% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -83%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -110% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 302% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 578%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 559% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 53x | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -51%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -49%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5084% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers. Themes include Private Credit, E-commerce Logistics, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.8%, Dividend Yield is 14%, FCF Yield is 10% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 578%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 559% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers. Themes include Private Credit, E-commerce Logistics, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -83%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -110% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 302% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 53x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -51%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -49%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5084% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ACRE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the 12.7% movement in Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE) stock for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025: 1. 1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Beat: Ares Commercial Real Estate reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2025, significantly surpassing analyst expectations. The company announced a GAAP net income of $4.7 million, or $0.08 per diluted share, a substantial improvement from a net loss in the third quarter of 2024. Additionally, distributable earnings came in at $0.10 per share, notably exceeding the analyst estimate of $0.0224 per share. This positive earnings surprise was a primary driver of the stock's upward movement. 2. 2. Increased Sequential Earnings and Improved Profitability: The reported net income in Q3 2025 marked an increase in sequential earnings, signaling an improving financial trajectory for the company. This shift from a prior-year loss to profitability likely boosted investor confidence in ACRE's operational performance and future outlook. 3.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ACRE Return | -14% | 34% | -20% | 16% | -34% | -4% | -32% |
| Peers Return | 12% | 9% | -24% | 18% | 6% | 23% | 43% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ACRE Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 42% | 50% | 42% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 48% | 45% | 52% | 58% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ACRE Max Drawdown | -73% | -5% | -24% | -22% | -36% | -39% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -59% | -9% | -40% | -23% | -9% | -8% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NLY, AGNC, STWD, HASI, RITM. See ACRE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ACRE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -52.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 110.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -75.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 311.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -11.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 59 days | 120 days |
Compare to NLY, AGNC, STWD, HASI, RITM
In The Past
Ares Commercial Real Estate's stock fell -52.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/14/2022. A -52.4% loss requires a 110.1% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ACRE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Ares Commercial Real Estate
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 14.85 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.2 |
| Rev LTM | 877 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 316 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 118 |
| CFO LTM | 316 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 118 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 29.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 83.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 23.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 74.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 73.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.2 |
| P/S | 8.1 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 10.6 |
| P/CFO | 6.9 |
| Total Yield | 12.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| D/E | 1.8 |
| Net D/E | 1.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 21.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 13.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 43.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 5.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -0.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -28.2% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2122025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2152023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2152022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11032021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | FEINGOLD ANTON | Gen. Counsel VP and Secretary | 2042025 | Sell | 5.68 | 7,615 | 43,263 | 445,187 | Form |
| 1 | Gonzales Jeffrey Michael | CFO and Treasurer | 2042025 | Sell | 5.68 | 4,020 | 22,839 | 288,337 | Form |
| 2 | Donohoe Bryan Patrick | Chief Executive Officer | 2042025 | Sell | 5.68 | 23,465 | 133,230 | 1,243,149 | Form |
External Quote Links
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| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |