Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $5.375 | Market Cap: $295.1 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Mortgage REITs
Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $5.375Market Cap: $295.1 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Mortgage REITs
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.9%, Dividend Yield is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.7%, FCF Yield is 7.7% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -79%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -102% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 248% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 257% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 45x | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 367%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 346% | Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 64% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 287% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers. Themes include Private Credit, E-commerce Logistics, Show more. | Key risksACRE key risks include [1] a heavy portfolio concentration in the distressed office sector, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.9%, Dividend Yield is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.7%, FCF Yield is 7.7% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 257% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 367%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 346% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers. Themes include Private Credit, E-commerce Logistics, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -79%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -102% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 248% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 45x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 64% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 287% |
| Key risksACRE key risks include [1] a heavy portfolio concentration in the distressed office sector, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ACRE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Ares Commercial Real Estate reported stronger-than-expected financial results for the third quarter of 2025. The company surpassed Zacks Consensus Estimates for both earnings per share and revenue. Specifically, ACRE reported GAAP net income of $4.7 million, or $0.08 per diluted common share, and Distributable Earnings of $5.5 million, or $0.10 per diluted common share, for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025.
2. The company demonstrated improved financial flexibility and progress in managing its loan portfolio during Q3 2025. Ares Commercial Real Estate highlighted increased sequential earnings and stable CECL reserve and book values. Management also noted significant progress in strengthening financial flexibility by addressing risk-rated loans and reducing office loan exposure.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ACRE Return | -14% | 34% | -20% | 16% | -34% | -0% | -30% |
| Peers Return | -20% | 29% | -17% | 20% | -7% | 11% | 5% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ACRE Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 42% | 50% | 42% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 62% | 48% | 53% | 53% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ACRE Max Drawdown | -73% | -5% | -24% | -22% | -36% | -39% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -68% | -4% | -25% | -17% | -18% | -8% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: STWD, BXMT, ARI, KREF, LADR. See ACRE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ACRE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -52.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 110.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -75.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 311.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -11.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 59 days | 120 days |
Compare to NLY, AGNC, STWD, HASI, RITM
In The Past
Ares Commercial Real Estate's stock fell -52.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/14/2022. A -52.4% loss requires a 110.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ACRE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.5% | 13.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.0% | 2.0% | -0.5% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.8% | -4.8% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.8% | 5.8% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.1% | -12.1% | -12.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.5% | 13.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.0% | 2.0% | -0.5% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.8% | -4.8% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.8% | 5.8% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.1% | -12.1% | -12.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Ares Commercial Real Estate
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 10.71 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.4 |
| Rev LTM | 252 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 64 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 130 |
| CFO LTM | 129 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 177 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -9.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -5.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 0.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 64.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 70.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 51.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 54.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.4 |
| P/S | 6.5 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 14.0 |
| P/CFO | 8.0 |
| Total Yield | 13.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 10.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.8% |
| D/E | 3.7 |
| Net D/E | 3.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 8.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 8.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 30.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -5.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -8.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -50.0% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/7/2025 | -5.9% | -2.6% | 2.8% |
| 8/5/2025 | -0.5% | 5.8% | 20.7% |
| 5/7/2025 | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.4% |
| 2/12/2025 | -5.0% | -6.7% | -9.3% |
| 11/7/2024 | 1.3% | -2.2% | -0.6% |
| 8/6/2024 | 1.8% | 1.3% | 3.1% |
| 5/9/2024 | 1.9% | 0.7% | 3.5% |
| 2/22/2024 | -0.8% | -1.4% | 0.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 12 | 16 |
| # Negative | 10 | 12 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 2.2% | 2.0% | 4.7% |
| Median Negative | -2.8% | -2.7% | -3.2% |
| Max Positive | 41.4% | 25.1% | 30.8% |
| Max Negative | -5.9% | -6.7% | -26.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2122025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2152023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2152022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | FEINGOLD ANTON | Gen. Counsel VP and Secretary | 2042025 | Sell | 5.68 | 7,615 | 43,263 | 445,187 | Form |
| 1 | Gonzales Jeffrey Michael | CFO and Treasurer | 2042025 | Sell | 5.68 | 4,020 | 22,839 | 288,337 | Form |
| 2 | Donohoe Bryan Patrick | Chief Executive Officer | 2042025 | Sell | 5.68 | 23,465 | 133,230 | 1,243,149 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |