KKR Real Estate Finance Trust (KREF)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $8.51 | Market Cap: $560.6 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Mortgage REITs
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust (KREF)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $8.51Market Cap: $560.6 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Mortgage REITs
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.2%, FCF Yield is 12% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -99% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 568% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 61%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 59% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -27%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -9.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -37% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers. Themes include Private Credit, E-commerce Logistics REITs, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.2%, FCF Yield is 12% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 61%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 59% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers. Themes include Private Credit, E-commerce Logistics REITs, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -99% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 568% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -27%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -9.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -37% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
KREF Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points highlighting why KKR Real Estate Finance Trust (KREF) stock moved by approximately -9.5% from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Disappointing Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results.
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust reported a significant shortfall in both adjusted earnings per share (EPS) and revenue for the third quarter of 2025 compared to analysts' expectations. The adjusted EPS showed a loss of $0.03, missing forecasts by 142.86%, and revenue of $31.41 million fell short of the projected $34.15 million.
2. Persistent Unprofitability and Valuation Concerns.
As of October 22, 2025, KREF continued to be unprofitable, with net losses increasing over the preceding five years. The company's price-to-sales ratio stood at 14x, considerably higher than the US Mortgage REITs average of 4.3x, indicating potential overvaluation relative to its sector peers.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KREF Return | -3% | 26% | -26% | 9% | -16% | -10% | -25% |
| Peers Return | -14% | 10% | -19% | 2% | 6% | 2% | -15% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KREF Win Rate | 75% | 75% | 42% | 58% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 57% | 50% | 45% | 55% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KREF Max Drawdown | -52% | -4% | -27% | -26% | -30% | -17% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -64% | -6% | -34% | -22% | -11% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DX, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | KREF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -54.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 121.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -55.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 123.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 441 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -19.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1224 days | 120 days |
Compare to DX, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY
In The Past
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust's stock fell -54.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/27/2021. A -54.7% loss requires a 121.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to KREF. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for KKR Real Estate Finance Trust
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 8.34 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.6 |
| Rev LTM | 96 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 140 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 159 |
| CFO LTM | 140 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 161 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -15.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 33.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 9.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 119.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 79.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 92.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 77.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.6 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 9.0 |
| P/CFO | 6.3 |
| Total Yield | 11.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 13.6% |
| D/E | 1.2 |
| Net D/E | 1.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 9.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 6.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 4.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -5.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -6.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -65.1% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10212025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7222025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4232025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10212024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7222024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4232024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2062024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10232023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7242023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4242023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2072023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10242022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7252022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4252022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2082022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |