Tearsheet

KKR Real Estate Finance Trust (KREF)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $8.51 | Market Cap: $560.6 Mil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Mortgage REITs

KKR Real Estate Finance Trust (KREF)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $8.51
Market Cap: $560.6 Mil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Mortgage REITs

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.2%, FCF Yield is 12%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -99%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 568%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 61%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 59%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -27%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -9.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -37%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 29%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers. Themes include Private Credit, E-commerce Logistics REITs, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.2%, FCF Yield is 12%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 61%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 59%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 29%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers. Themes include Private Credit, E-commerce Logistics REITs, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -99%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 568%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -27%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -9.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -37%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

KREF Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points highlighting why KKR Real Estate Finance Trust (KREF) stock moved by approximately -9.5% from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Disappointing Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results.

KKR Real Estate Finance Trust reported a significant shortfall in both adjusted earnings per share (EPS) and revenue for the third quarter of 2025 compared to analysts' expectations. The adjusted EPS showed a loss of $0.03, missing forecasts by 142.86%, and revenue of $31.41 million fell short of the projected $34.15 million.

2. Persistent Unprofitability and Valuation Concerns.

As of October 22, 2025, KREF continued to be unprofitable, with net losses increasing over the preceding five years. The company's price-to-sales ratio stood at 14x, considerably higher than the US Mortgage REITs average of 4.3x, indicating potential overvaluation relative to its sector peers.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
KREF Return-3%26%-26%9%-16%-10%-25%
Peers Return-14%10%-19%2%6%2%-15%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
KREF Win Rate75%75%42%58%50%40% 
Peers Win Rate53%57%50%45%55%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
KREF Max Drawdown-52%-4%-27%-26%-30%-17% 
Peers Max Drawdown-64%-6%-34%-22%-11%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DX, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventKREFS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-54.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven121.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-55.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven123.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven441 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-19.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven23.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1224 days120 days

Compare to DX, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY


In The Past

KKR Real Estate Finance Trust's stock fell -54.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/27/2021. A -54.7% loss requires a 121.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About KKR Real Estate Finance Trust (KREF)

Better Bets than KKR Real Estate Finance Trust (KREF)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to KREF. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for KKR Real Estate Finance Trust

Peers to compare with:

Financials

KREFDXIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameKKR Real.Dynex Ca.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
Mkt Price8.4813.898.192.784.7322.828.34
Mkt Cap0.61.90.60.50.115.00.6
Rev LTM120230722271,70396
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM7112215947251,953140
FCF 3Y Avg1237119632951,260159
CFO LTM7412215947252,857140
CFO 3Y Avg1277119632951,976161

Growth & Margins

KREFDXIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameKKR Real.Dynex Ca.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
Rev Chg LTM-27.1%87.1%-29.9%-73.3%-3.5%473.5%-15.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-9.4%63.4%241.0%-52.8%2.5%143.3%33.0%
Rev Chg Q-36.8%309.0%27.8%-29.1%-9.2%637.1%9.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-11.1%113.8%21.1%-45.4%-2.2%81.6%9.4%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM61.4%52.8%220.1%2,181.7%71.0%167.8%119.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg79.8%77.6%790.7%851.6%70.9%-79.8%
FCF/Rev LTM59.0%52.8%220.1%2,181.7%71.0%114.7%92.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg76.9%77.6%790.7%851.6%70.8%-77.6%

Valuation

KREFDXIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameKKR Real.Dynex Ca.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
Mkt Cap0.61.90.60.50.115.00.6
P/S4.97.37.129.38.87.87.5
P/EBIT-------
P/E-1,070.29.09.6-2.011.98.99.0
P/CFO8.013.73.21.312.44.66.3
Total Yield11.4%11.1%10.4%-27.7%16.8%11.3%11.2%
Dividend Yield11.5%0.0%0.0%21.4%8.4%0.0%4.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg15.8%6.8%40.1%36.2%8.5%11.4%13.6%
D/E6.00.00.06.00.22.21.2
Net D/E5.7-0.3-0.15.70.22.21.2

Returns

KREFDXIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameKKR Real.Dynex Ca.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
1M Rtn5.2%5.9%8.6%-4.1%-4.8%7.1%5.6%
3M Rtn-8.7%14.6%8.1%-32.2%-10.4%9.9%-0.3%
6M Rtn-0.2%24.9%19.5%-29.7%-3.4%29.0%9.7%
12M Rtn-17.4%30.4%19.1%-56.6%-6.1%33.1%6.5%
3Y Rtn-25.4%60.5%3.7%-68.6%5.7%58.4%4.7%
1M Excs Rtn5.2%6.0%8.7%-4.1%-4.8%7.2%5.6%
3M Excs Rtn-15.9%7.8%2.0%-38.0%-15.6%3.0%-6.8%
6M Excs Rtn-14.9%10.1%4.8%-44.5%-18.1%14.3%-5.0%
12M Excs Rtn-32.7%15.8%4.5%-70.9%-17.7%18.2%-6.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-99.4%-8.7%-65.4%-141.0%-64.9%-8.9%-65.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment175175152126100
Total175175152126100


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,670,934
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-2.7%
Average Daily Volume969,124
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.79
Basic Shares Quantity65,876,727
Short % of Basic Shares5.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251021202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025722202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025423202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024203202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241021202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024722202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024423202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023206202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231023202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023724202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023424202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022207202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221024202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022725202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022425202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021208202210-K 12/31/2021