Absci (ABSI)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $3.555 | Market Cap: $511.1 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Absci (ABSI)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $3.555Market Cap: $511.1 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Precision Medicine. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -3.9%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -46% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -119 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4229% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 155x | ||
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -33%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -16%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -78% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2867%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2911% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 139% | ||
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 23% | ||
| Key risksABSI key risks include [1] significant financial losses and high cash burn as a pre-revenue company, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Precision Medicine. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -3.9%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -46% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -119 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4229% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 155x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -33%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -16%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -78% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2867%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2911% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 139% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 23% |
| Key risksABSI key risks include [1] significant financial losses and high cash burn as a pre-revenue company, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ABSI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
**1. Accelerated Clinical Development and Dosing of ABS-201 for Hair Loss.** Absci significantly advanced its lead program, ABS-201, for androgenetic alopecia (pattern hair loss). The company accelerated the initiation of the Phase 1/2a HEADLINE™ trial to December 2025 and announced the dosing of the first healthy volunteers in this trial. This progress in a large, underserved market was a key driver of stock momentum. **2. Positive Human Ex Vivo Data for ABS-201.** In December 2025, Absci unveiled new preclinical data for ABS-201, demonstrating its potential to stimulate hair growth and regenerate the stem cell niche in human scalp tissue samples. The data indicated ABS-201 prolongs anagen, stimulates hair matrix keratinocyte proliferation, and increases key growth factors, suggesting it could reverse follicle miniaturization. **3. Strategic Expansion of ABS-201 Program to Endometriosis.** In November 2025, Absci announced it would expand the development strategy for ABS-201 to pursue endometriosis as an additional high-value indication. This strategic decision to target another large, underserved market with the same antibody candidate was highlighted as a pivotal inflection point for the company. **4. Positive Analyst Endorsement and Price Target Increase.** Following the positive developments, Jones Trading raised its price target for Absci to $9 from $8 in December 2025, while maintaining a Buy rating. This analyst upgrade signaled increased confidence in Absci's strategic initiatives and clinical pipeline. **5. Robust Financial Position and Extended Cash Runway.** Absci reported in its third-quarter 2025 financial results (November 2025) that its cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities were $152.5 million as of September 30, 2025, and reiterated that these funds were sufficient to finance its operations into the first half of 2028. This financial stability provided confidence for the continued advancement of its drug creation platform and clinical programs.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ABSI Return | � | � | -74% | 100% | -38% | 35% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | -52% | 10% | -55% | 13% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ABSI Win Rate | � | 20% | 25% | 42% | 33% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 32% | 37% | 48% | 35% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ABSI Max Drawdown | � | � | -76% | -45% | -39% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -64% | -40% | -62% | -37% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SDGR, RXRX, RLAY, ABCL, DNA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ABSI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -96.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2533.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN
In The Past
Absci's stock fell -96.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/3/2021. A -96.2% loss requires a 2533.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Absci Earnings Notes | ||
| Can Absci Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ABSI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Absci
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 6.36 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.1 |
| Rev LTM | 39 |
| Op Inc LTM | -287 |
| FCF LTM | -170 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -204 |
| CFO LTM | -135 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -181 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -16.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | -56.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -10.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -1,183.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -820.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -20.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -656.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -451.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -735.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -552.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.1 |
| P/S | 46.4 |
| P/EBIT | -3.1 |
| P/E | -3.4 |
| P/CFO | -5.2 |
| Total Yield | -29.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -18.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 9.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -4.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -6.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -48.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 8.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -21.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -118.2% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/12/2025 | -22.4% | -15.9% | -0.3% |
| 3/18/2025 | -3.2% | -0.3% | -1.0% |
| 11/12/2024 | -15.0% | -35.3% | 2.3% |
| 8/14/2024 | 11.0% | 16.6% | 4.6% |
| 3/21/2024 | 3.7% | 8.8% | -6.3% |
| 11/14/2023 | 0.0% | -2.9% | 97.1% |
| 3/30/2023 | 4.2% | 3.0% | -25.6% |
| 11/9/2022 | 3.3% | 1.5% | -5.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 6 | 3 |
| # Negative | 4 | 5 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 3.7% | 6.0% | 4.6% |
| Median Negative | -14.5% | -15.9% | -3.9% |
| Max Positive | 14.0% | 16.6% | 97.1% |
| Max Negative | -22.4% | -35.3% | -45.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11122025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8122025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5132025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5142024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8142023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5152023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3302023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5112022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |