What’s Next for Cleveland-Cliffs Stock?
Here’s a number that jumps off the page: Cleveland-Cliffs’ (NYSE:CLF) lost more than $1.4 billion in 2025 on $18.6 billion in revenue. Yet the stock still trades around $11, well above its 52-week low of $5.63. Something may finally be changing.
What Went Wrong In 2025
2025 was brutal for Cliffs. Weak automotive production hit demand for flat-rolled steel, while lower spot steel prices pressured margins. Revenue slipped to $18.6 billion from $19.2 billion in 2024, and net losses nearly doubled from $714 million to $1.4 billion.
Global steel oversupply remained a major issue, and sentiment worsened after CEO Lourenco Goncalves sold 3 million shares in February 2026 for roughly $37 million. Following weak Q4 earnings, the stock plunged 16.4% in a single day.
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Q1 2026 Showed Signs of Improvement
The Q1 2026 report was messy but encouraging.
Revenue came in at $4.9 billion, above expectations of $4.81 billion. Shipments rose to 4.1 million net tons, while the adjusted loss narrowed to $0.40 per share versus a $0.93 loss a year earlier.
Adjusted EBITDA reached $95 million despite an $80 million hit from extreme winter energy costs. A year ago, EBITDA was negative $179 million. That swing matters.
See how CLF’s financials compare with its peers, Nucor, Steel Dynamics, Reliance, and Commercial Metals.
Tariffs Are Changing The Story
Hot-rolled coil prices averaged $980 per ton in Q1, up 24% year over year, while steel imports fell to their lowest levels since the financial crisis. Section 232 tariffs are tightening the domestic market, benefiting producers like Cliffs.
Management says order books are strengthening, automotive demand is improving, and lead times are extending — all signs of a healthier steel cycle.
The Valuation Debate
Traditional valuation metrics look messy because Cliffs is still losing money. Trailing EPS sits at negative $2.31, while the forward P/E near 29x assumes a meaningful recovery ahead.
More revealing are the balance-sheet metrics. The stock trades at roughly 1.0x book value and just 0.31x sales, levels that suggest the market is still pricing in distress rather than recovery. By using normalized EBITDA multiples, the price lands in the $10 to $15 range, close to where the stock trades today.
In other words, the market is not pricing in a major turnaround yet. It is barely pricing in survival.
Why Q2 Matters
Management expects sequential improvement throughout 2026 and says positive free cash flow should begin in Q2.
The bear case remains obvious: Cliffs is still losing money, debt is high, and the stock is volatile. But if Q2 confirms improving cash flow and stronger pricing, the narrative could quickly shift from “struggling steelmaker” to genuine turnaround story.
At $11, the market still looks unconvinced. That could either be the risk — or the opportunity.
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