How Will Qualcomm Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. The company has $161 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $45 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $12 Bil in operating profits and net income of $5.4 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Qualcomm’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 6 positive and 14 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 30% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 17% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 6 positive returns = 7.8%, and median of the 14 negative returns = -5.3%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/4/2026 | -8.5% | -5.3% | -8.3% |
| 11/5/2025 | -3.6% | -1.7% | -2.0% |
| 7/30/2025 | -7.7% | -8.3% | 1.1% |
| 4/30/2025 | -8.9% | -2.8% | -2.2% |
| 2/5/2025 | -3.7% | -3.2% | -7.8% |
| 11/6/2024 | -0.0% | -7.3% | -7.3% |
| 7/31/2024 | -9.4% | -13.7% | -6.3% |
| 5/1/2024 | 9.7% | 10.0% | 24.8% |
| 1/31/2024 | -5.0% | -1.8% | 10.4% |
| 11/1/2023 | 5.8% | 8.3% | 17.7% |
| 8/2/2023 | -8.2% | -9.8% | -10.8% |
| 5/3/2023 | -5.5% | -5.6% | 3.2% |
| 2/2/2023 | -0.6% | -3.9% | -9.3% |
| 11/2/2022 | -7.7% | -1.8% | 12.4% |
| 7/27/2022 | -4.5% | -2.8% | -4.7% |
| 4/27/2022 | 9.7% | 10.3% | -0.2% |
| 2/2/2022 | -4.8% | -2.3% | -13.4% |
| 11/3/2021 | 12.7% | 15.4% | 27.9% |
| 7/28/2021 | 6.0% | 4.1% | -0.0% |
| 4/28/2021 | 4.5% | -1.4% | -2.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| # Negative | 14 | 15 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 7.8% | 10.0% | 12.4% |
| Median Negative | -5.3% | -3.2% | -6.3% |
| Max Positive | 12.7% | 15.4% | 27.9% |
| Max Negative | -9.4% | -13.7% | -13.4% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -25.7% | -1.5% | 33.8% |
| 3Y History | -13.4% | 23.8% | 49.4% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Qualcomm stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Qualcomm. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| QCOM Earnings Dates | QCOM | INTC | TXN |
| 2/4/2026 | -8.5% | -10.5% | 14.1% |
| 11/5/2025 | -3.6% | 0.6% | -8.7% |
| 7/30/2025 | -7.7% | -10.1% | -11.8% |
| 4/30/2025 | -8.9% | -6.5% | 6.1% |
| 2/5/2025 | -3.7% | -1.8% | -8.8% |
| 11/6/2024 | -0.0% | 16.4% | 11.6% |
| 7/31/2024 | -9.4% | N/A* | 3.5% |
| 5/1/2024 | 9.7% | -13.5% | 5.9% |
| 1/31/2024 | -5.0% | -13.1% | -7.4% |
| 11/1/2023 | 5.8% | 14.7% | -1.7% |
| 8/2/2023 | -8.2% | -0.5% | -6.7% |
| 5/3/2023 | -5.5% | 2.6% | -3.6% |
| 2/2/2023 | -0.6% | 0.3% | 5.1% |
| 11/2/2022 | -7.7% | 4.4% | -1.5% |
| 7/27/2022 | -4.5% | N/A* | 6.7% |
| 4/27/2022 | 9.7% | N/A* | 0.6% |
| 2/2/2022 | -4.8% | -4.2% | 8.7% |
| 11/3/2021 | 12.7% | -10.0% | -3.4% |
| 7/28/2021 | 6.0% | -5.2% | -3.3% |
| CORRELATION | -10.6% | -4.6% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after QCOM
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