How Will Coinbase Global Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, May 7, 2026. The company has $53 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $7.2 billion, and it was operationally profitable with $1.5 billion in operating profits and a net income of $1.3 billion. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Coinbase Global’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 42% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 36% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 8 positive returns = 6.4%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -3.9%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/12/2026 | 16.5% | 21.4% | 44.1% |
| 10/30/2025 | 4.6% | -10.1% | -19.9% |
| 7/31/2025 | -16.7% | -17.7% | -19.4% |
| 5/8/2025 | -3.5% | 18.4% | 24.3% |
| 2/13/2025 | -8.0% | -21.0% | -36.6% |
| 10/30/2024 | -15.3% | 20.1% | 39.9% |
| 8/1/2024 | -3.9% | -9.6% | -13.8% |
| 5/2/2024 | -2.4% | -8.0% | 1.1% |
| 2/15/2024 | 8.8% | 0.2% | 44.6% |
| 11/2/2023 | 1.4% | 9.8% | 66.8% |
| 8/3/2023 | -3.8% | -8.1% | -14.1% |
| 5/4/2023 | 18.3% | 22.6% | 19.3% |
| 2/21/2023 | -1.4% | 4.4% | 24.3% |
| 11/3/2022 | 5.4% | -8.7% | -17.6% |
| 8/9/2022 | 7.4% | 3.1% | -16.7% |
| 5/10/2022 | -26.4% | -4.1% | -12.6% |
| 2/24/2022 | -1.5% | -0.9% | 4.0% |
| 11/9/2021 | -8.1% | -4.3% | -26.2% |
| 8/10/2021 | 3.2% | -7.0% | -4.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 8 | 9 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 6.4% | 14.1% | 24.3% |
| Median Negative | -3.9% | -8.1% | -17.1% |
| Max Positive | 18.3% | 22.6% | 66.8% |
| Max Negative | -26.4% | -21.0% | -36.6% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -38.2% | -9.1% | 35.4% |
| 3Y History | -25.9% | 7.6% | 52.2% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Coinbase Global stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Coinbase Global. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| COIN Earnings Dates | COIN | HOOD | CME |
| 2/12/2026 | 16.5% | -28.5% | 2.4% |
| 10/30/2025 | 4.6% | N/A* | -1.8% |
| 7/31/2025 | -16.7% | -2.9% | 0.7% |
| 5/8/2025 | -3.5% | 10.1% | 7.8% |
| 2/13/2025 | -8.0% | 22.8% | 0.5% |
| 10/30/2024 | -15.3% | N/A* | 0.1% |
| 8/1/2024 | -3.9% | -1.6% | -0.5% |
| 5/2/2024 | -2.4% | 6.8% | -2.4% |
| 2/15/2024 | 8.8% | 25.0% | -1.9% |
| 11/2/2023 | 1.4% | 3.7% | -0.7% |
| 8/3/2023 | -3.8% | -10.3% | 2.1% |
| 5/4/2023 | 18.3% | -4.2% | -0.5% |
| 2/21/2023 | -1.4% | -4.9% | 0.2% |
| 11/3/2022 | 5.4% | 5.6% | -0.6% |
| 8/9/2022 | 7.4% | 9.4% | 3.6% |
| 5/10/2022 | -26.4% | -8.1% | -11.4% |
| 2/24/2022 | -1.5% | -0.9% | -4.9% |
| 11/9/2021 | -8.1% | N/A* | 2.2% |
| 8/10/2021 | 3.2% | N/A* | -2.1% |
| CORRELATION | 7.5% | -53.2% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after COIN
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