How Will Cloudflare Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Cloudflare (NYSE:NET) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, May 7, 2026. The company has $86 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $2.2 Bil, and it was operationally loss-making with $-207 Mil in operating losses and net income of $-102 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Cloudflare’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 55% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 73% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 6.9%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -9.5%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/10/2026 | 5.2% | 6.4% | 17.9% |
| 10/30/2025 | 13.8% | 1.5% | -9.5% |
| 7/31/2025 | -3.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| 5/8/2025 | 6.5% | 22.9% | 43.0% |
| 2/6/2025 | 17.8% | 24.7% | -17.6% |
| 11/7/2024 | -4.6% | -3.9% | 19.0% |
| 8/1/2024 | 6.8% | 3.3% | 10.4% |
| 5/2/2024 | -16.4% | -17.6% | -24.2% |
| 2/8/2024 | 19.5% | 12.1% | 7.5% |
| 11/2/2023 | 13.9% | 9.9% | 41.1% |
| 8/3/2023 | 6.9% | -2.7% | -1.6% |
| 4/27/2023 | -21.0% | -32.1% | 2.6% |
| 2/9/2023 | 3.3% | 17.4% | -5.0% |
| 11/3/2022 | -18.4% | -6.2% | -14.1% |
| 8/4/2022 | 27.1% | 28.3% | 0.5% |
| 5/5/2022 | -15.7% | -27.1% | -30.7% |
| 2/10/2022 | -9.5% | -10.5% | -27.4% |
| 11/4/2021 | -1.9% | -2.4% | -26.6% |
| 8/5/2021 | -2.2% | 0.6% | 7.4% |
| 5/6/2021 | 3.7% | -3.5% | 24.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 6.9% | 9.9% | 10.4% |
| Median Negative | -9.5% | -6.2% | -17.6% |
| Max Positive | 27.1% | 28.3% | 43.0% |
| Max Negative | -21.0% | -32.1% | -30.7% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -17.6% | -28.7% | -36.7% |
| 3Y History | -11.8% | -25.9% | -22.1% |
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