Can Vistra Stock Recover If Markets Fall?
Vistra (VST) stock is down 11.1% in 5 trading days. The recent slide reflects renewed concerns around White House intervention impacting power markets and capacity pricing, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Vistra stands today.
- Size: Vistra is a $54 Bil company with $17 Bil in revenue currently trading at $160.12.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 5.7% and operating margin of 12.2%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.32 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.02
- Valuation: Vistra stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 47.1 and P/EBIT multiple of 24.6
- Has returned (median) 28.7% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See VST Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Moderate operational performance, alongside High valuation – making the stock Unattractive. For details, see Buy or Sell VST Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is VST stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose VST stock falls another 20-30% to $112 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock saw an impact slightly better than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
2022 Inflation Shock
- VST stock fell 33.2% from a high of $23.83 on 24 February 2021 to $15.92 on 17 May 2021 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 6 April 2022
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $217.92 on 22 September 2025 , and currently trades at $160.12
| VST | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -33.2% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 324 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- VST stock fell 46.2% from a high of $23.43 on 21 February 2020 to $12.60 on 18 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 24 February 2021
| VST | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -46.2% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 343 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- VST stock fell 21.4% from a high of $27.25 on 30 April 2019 to $21.43 on 23 July 2019 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 30 October 2019
| VST | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -21.4% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 99 days | 120 days |
Feeling jittery about VST stock? Consider portfolio approach.
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