Is Global Payments Stock Poised for a Rally?

We think Global Payments (GPN) stock could be a good value buy. It is currently trading lower than average valuation, and has reasonable revenue growth and strong margins to go with its modest valuation.

Buying stocks with low valuations or trading well below their peaks but maintaining strong margins allows investors to capture mean reversion and valuation re-rating potential. The downside risk is potentially less because high-margin businesses can sustain earnings and recover faster when sentiment or market conditions improve

What Is Happening With GPN

GPN may be down -4.7% so far this year but is now 34% cheaper based on its P/S (Price-to-Sales) ratio compared to 1 year ago, and also trades at a P/E (Price-to-Earnings) ratio that is below S&P 500 median.

Here is what’s going well for the company. Global Payments recently became a pure-play commerce solutions provider by completing the Worldpay acquisition, significantly expanding its merchant network to over 6 million. This strategic shift is expected to unlock substantial cost efficiencies and accelerate future revenue, moving beyond recent softer top-line trends. Analysts have noted a positive outlook on the new structure, driving some upgrades. The valuation is discounted due to prior merger uncertainties, which are now receding, alongside mixed past stock returns.

GPN Has Strong Fundamentals

• Reasonable Revenue Growth: 21.0% LTM and 6.8% last 3 year average.
• Strong Margin: Nearly 19.8% 3-year average operating margin.
• No Major Margin Shock: Global Payments has avoided any large large margin collapse in the last 12 months.
• Modest Valuation: Despite encouraging fundamentals, GPN stock trades at a PE multiple of 10.1

Below is a quick comparison of GPN fundamentals with S&P medians.

*LTM: Last Twelve Months

But What Is The Risk Involved?

While GPN stock may be a compelling investment opportunity, it’s always helpful to be aware of a stock’s history of drawdown. GPN fell 44% in both the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid pandemic. The 2018 correction brought a more moderate drop of 26%, but the inflation shock hit even harder, with a 57% decline. Even solid companies like GPN can’t fully escape big sell-offs. Despite all the positive factors, steep drawdowns still show the risks investors face during market stress. But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read GPN Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.

For more details and our view, see Buy or Sell GPN Stock.

Stocks Like GPN

Not ready to act on GPN? Consider these alternatives:

1. Adobe (ADBE)
2. PayPal (PYPL)
3. Lululemon Athletica (LULU)

We chose these stocks using the following criteria:

1. Greater than $2 Bil in market cap
2. Meaningfully below 1Y high
3. Current P/S < last few year average
4. Strong operating margin
5. P/E ratio below S&P 500 median

A portfolio of stocks with the criteria above would have performed has follows since 12/31/2016:

• Average 6-month and 12-month forward returns of 12.7% and 25.8% respectively
• Win rate (percentage of picks returning positive) of > 70% for both 6-month and 12-month periods
• Strategy consistent across market cycles

The Right Way To Invest Is Through Portfolios

Individual picks can be volatile but staying invested is what matters. A diversified portfolio helps you stay the course, capture upside and reduce downside

The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.