USAR Stock Surges 59% With A 6-day Winning Spree On $3.1B US Gov’t Deal
USA Rare Earth (USAR) – a blank check company for business mergers and acquisitions – hit 6-day winning streak, with cumulative gains over this period amounting to a 59%. The company market cap has surged by about $1.3 Bil over the last 6 days, and currently stands at $3.9 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 124.5% compared to 1.5% for S&P 500. Let’s take a look at what’s driving the stock.
What Triggered The Rally?
[1] US Gov’t $1.6B Funding & $1.5B PIPE
- Letter of Intent for $1.6B in US gov’t funding
- P $1.5B concurrent private investment
- Impact: Stock surged over 17% on the day, Trading volume 1.94x 20-day average
[2] Key Partner Selection for Commercialization
- Fluor and WSP selected as EPCM partners
- Aims to advance Round Top commercialization
- Impact: Positive pre-catalyst momentum, Increased investor confidence
Why This Matters?
Momentum often precedes conviction. A multi-day win streak can signal growing investor confidence or spark follow-on buying. Tracking such trends can help you ride the strength, or prepare for a well-timed entry if momentum fades.
But here is the real interesting point.
You are reading about this 59% move after it happened. The market has already priced in the news. To catch the next winner before the headlines, you need predictive signals, not notifications. Our High Quality Portfolio has flagged 5 new opportunities that haven not surged yet.
Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for USAR stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | USAR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | 7.9% | 0.5% |
| 6D (Current Streak) | 59.1% | 0.1% |
| 1M (21D) | 89.4% | 0.6% |
| 3M (63D) | 11.1% | 3.1% |
| YTD 2026 | 124.5% | 1.5% |
| 2025 | 39832.9% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | 0.0% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | 0.0% | 24.2% |
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 65 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 42 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 17 | 37 |
| 4D | 35 | 0 |
| 5D | 9 | 4 |
| 6D | 3 | 0 |
| 7D or more | 1 | 1 |
| Total >=3 D | 65 | 42 |
Key Financials for USA Rare Earth (USAR)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $0 | $0 |
| Operating Income | $-24.8 Mil | $-4.1 Mil |
| Net Income | $-7.4 Mil | $7.9 Mil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ2 | 2025 FQ3 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $0 | $0 |
| Operating Income | $-8.8 Mil | $-15.9 Mil |
| Net Income | $-142.5 Mil | $-156.7 Mil |
While USAR stock looks attractive given its winning streak, investing in a single stock without detailed, thorough analysis can be risky. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.