Can Trade Desk Stock Recover If Markets Fall?
Trade Desk (TTD) stock is down 21.4% in 21 trading days. The recent slide reflects renewed concerns around cautious ad spending and muted growth guidance, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Trade Desk stands today.
- Size: Trade Desk is a $19 Bil company with $2.8 Bil in revenue currently trading at $38.61.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 20.8% and operating margin of 18.9%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.02 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.24
- Valuation: Trade Desk stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 54.5 and P/EBIT multiple of 45.3
- Has returned (median) 52.4% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See TTD Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Strong operational performance, alongside Very High valuation – making the stock Relatively Expensive. For details, see Buy or Sell TTD Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is TTD stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose TTD stock falls another 20-30% to $27 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
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2022 Inflation Shock
- TTD stock fell 64.3% from a high of $111.64 on 16 November 2021 to $39.89 on 9 November 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 4 October 2024
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $139.51 on 4 December 2024 , and currently trades at $38.61
| TTD | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -64.3% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 695 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- TTD stock fell 54.2% from a high of $31.54 on 19 February 2020 to $14.44 on 18 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 7 May 2020
| TTD | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -54.2% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 50 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- TTD stock fell 35.6% from a high of $6.65 on 13 October 2017 to $4.28 on 9 February 2018 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 11 May 2018
| TTD | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -35.6% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 91 days | 120 days |
Feeling jittery about TTD stock? Consider portfolio approach.
Why Stock Pickers Win More With Multi Asset Portfolios
Single markets are unpredictable but different assets react differently. A multi asset portfolio cuts downside shocks while keeping upside on the table.
The asset allocation framework of Trefis’ Boston-based, wealth management partner yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%. Our partner’ strategy now includes Trefis High Quality Portfolio, which has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices