Down > 20% In Less Than A Month, Time To Buy The Dip In TransMedics Stock?
TransMedics stock has fallen by 21.4% in less than a month, from levels of $143.04 on 6/12/2025 to $112.46 now. Should you buy this dip? Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks when broad market conditions are favorable, provided that the stock has a history of recovering from dips.
As it turns out, not only does TransMedics pass basic fundamental quality checks, but it has also returned (on average) 106% in one year, and 140% as peak return following sharp dips (>30% in 30 days) historically. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | -11.6% |
| 3M | 10.6% |
| 6M | 18.4% |
| 12M | 146.9% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
TMDX had 5 events since 1/1/2020 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 182% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 350 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -39% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | TMDX Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | TMDX | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 147% | 182% | -39% | 350 | ||||
| 10292024 | -43% | 4% | 27% | 62% | -36% | 226 | ||
| 8242023 | -31% | -3% | 173% | 182% | -41% | 365 | ||
| 12172021 | -34% | -1% | 168% | 211% | -39% | 350 | ||
| 4272021 | -32% | 6% | -29% | 18% | -57% | 73 | ||
| 3092020 | -31% | -17% | 147% | 187% | -24% | 358 | ||
TransMedics Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 64.4% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 139.5% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 10.1% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 4.5 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 21.7 |
Dip buying, while attractive, needs to be evaluated carefully from multiple angles. Such multi-factor analysis is exactly how we construct Trefis portfolio strategies. If you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.