Super Micro Computer Stock To $28?
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) stock has fallen by 28.9% in less than a month, from $32.65 on 4th Mar, 2026 to $23.22 now. What comes next? We believe there is a good chance of a stock rebound considering history of recovery post-dips and our current Attractive opinion of the stock. Read Buy or Sell Super Micro Computer Stock to see how we arrive at this opinion.
Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips. As it turns out, SMCI stock passes basic quality checks. Historically, the median return for the 12-month period following sharp dips was 27%, with median peak return reaching 57%. We define sharp dip as stock going down 30% or more, in less than 30 day period.
Below, we get into details of historical dips and subsequent returns.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
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| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 1.9% |
| 3M | 11.8% |
| 6M | 17.9% |
| 12M | 27.3% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
SMCI had 12 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 57% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 189 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -20% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | SMCI Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | SMCI | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 27% | 57% | -20% | 189 | ||||
| 3202026 | -33% | -4% | 10% | 17% | 0% | 5 | ||
| 11132025 | -33% | 0% | -36% | 4% | -41% | 1 | ||
| 4012025 | -37% | -8% | -36% | 73% | -41% | 120 | ||
| 8022024 | -32% | -2% | -25% | 1% | -71% | 14 | ||
| 4192024 | -38% | -4% | -54% | 33% | -75% | 26 | ||
| 9202023 | -30% | -2% | 88% | 389% | -5% | 175 | ||
| 3162020 | -38% | -25% | 114% | 114% | -8% | 365 | ||
| 10102018 | -34% | -4% | 47% | 79% | -9% | 203 | ||
| 8222018 | -34% | 3% | 24% | 46% | -26% | 252 | ||
| 10192012 | -32% | -0% | 51% | 61% | -11% | 360 | ||
| 8042010 | -31% | 3% | 43% | 88% | -15% | 265 | ||
| 5262010 | -32% | -12% | 31% | 53% | -30% | 335 | ||
1Y Refers to 1 year or time since recent dip, whichever is smaller
Super Micro Computer Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 34.8% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 66.3% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 2.0% | Fail |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 13.2 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 47.6 |
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