Can Shopify Stock Double?

Shopify (NASDAQ: SHOP) has quietly transformed into one of Wall Street’s strongest comeback stories. The stock has surged almost 47% in the past six months and is now trading near $157 — more than double its 52-week low of around $70. The company just delivered year-over-year revenue growth north of 25%, processed more than $70+ billion in quarterly Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV), and is now generating over $1 billion in annualized free cash flow. For a business that only recently exited its capital-heavy logistics venture, the resurgence has been stunning — and it has investors asking the question: after such a massive rebound, could Shopify double again? And even if it can, should anyone go all in?

If you seek an upside with less volatility than holding an individual stock, consider the High Quality Portfolio. It has comfortably outperformed its benchmark—a combination of the S&P 500, Russell, and S&P MidCap indexes—and has achieved returns exceeding 105% since its inception. Separately, see –Navitas Crashes 55% In A Month: What’s Next?

Photo by justynafaliszek on Pixabay

From E-Commerce Rebound to Investor Euphoria

Shopify’s rally began accelerating after the company delivered stronger-than-expected revenue, robust transaction growth, and improving profitability. GMV grew at double-digit rates, powered by healthier consumer spending and increased merchant adoption of Shopify Payments, Shopify Capital, and AI-driven commerce tools. Subscription revenue also climbed steadily as the merchant base expanded, particularly at the higher end, where Shopify Plus continues to attract larger retailers.

Sentiment shifted dramatically when Shopify posted operating margins that climbed back into the mid-teens — a major reversal from the days when soaring logistics costs weighed heavily on profitability. Investors also warmed to the company’s AI and enterprise initiatives, which are pushing merchants toward higher-value plans and deepening Shopify’s role in both front-end storefronts and backend payments infrastructure. As growth accelerated and profitability stabilized, Shopify began to trade not just as an e-commerce platform, but as a global retail infrastructure powerhouse.

Can It Really Double Again? The Math Says It Isn’t Impossible

At roughly $157 per share and a market cap of about $204 billion, Shopify isn’t a cheap stock. But the math behind another potential large move — toward a $270–$290 share price — becomes plausible if the company maintains its current growth trajectory. Shopify’s annual revenue is now pacing toward $10–11 billion, growing at around 20–25%, with free cash flow margins hovering around 10–15%.

If revenue reaches $18–20 billion in four to five years — a reasonable scenario given GMV growth, rising take-rates, and increased merchant monetization — and Shopify sustains free cash flow margins of 20% as its operating leverage improves, annual FCF could reach $3.5–4 billion. Applying a 40× multiple, which the market often gives to high-margin, high-growth software-plus-payments platforms, yields a valuation close to $140–160 billion above the current level — implying a market cap near $340–360 billion. That translates to roughly $270–290 per share, not too far away from  a double from here.

The assumptions aren’t unrealistic: ongoing merchant expansion, rising adoption of Shopify Payments, cross-selling of AI tools, and further enterprise penetration could all support this upside scenario. Shopify effectively gets paid every time the global retail economy grows — and that structural leverage is exactly what keeps long-term investors bullish.

Why Investors Are Paying Attention

Numbers aside, Shopify has become a story stock again — not in the speculative sense, but in the narrative sense. It is now one of the most dominant forces in modern retail, powering millions of merchants, handling a meaningful share of U.S. e-commerce transactions, and increasingly positioning itself as a full-stack commerce engine. In a world where digital retail remains on a long-term secular climb, Shopify is one of the few platforms with structural advantages that deepen as merchants scale. That flywheel — more merchants, more GMV, more payments volume, more financial services — is the backbone of the Shopify bull case.

The platform has also become strategically important for brands seeking independence from big marketplaces. With AI, automation, payments, and enterprise-grade functionality, Shopify is becoming indispensable infrastructure. That narrative — like the national-policy narrative around lithium — is what fuels conviction for large funds and hedge investors.

The Catch: Valuation, Competition, and Consumer Cycles

Despite its momentum, the risks remain real. Shopify trades at a premium valuation that leaves no room for deceleration. If e-commerce spending softens, if macro conditions tighten, or if consumer demand weakens, Shopify’s GMV-driven revenue would feel the pressure immediately. Competition remains fierce as Amazon, Wix, BigCommerce, and emerging AI-native platforms push aggressively into Shopify’s territory. Meanwhile, investments in AI tools, international expansion, and merchant solutions could pressure margins in the near term.

The company’s dependence on payments growth is another double-edged sword. Payments revenue is high volume but low margin, and while it boosts scale, it can weigh on profitability if not managed carefully. After such a sharp stock run, even minor revenue misses or guidance cuts could trigger significant pullbacks.

The Bottom Line

Shopify’s powerful rally reflects a market belief that the company isn’t just an e-commerce enabler — it’s the backbone of global online retail. The stock now trades as a leveraged bet on continued digital-commerce expansion, rising payment penetration, and Shopify’s ability to convert merchant scale into widening margins and growing free cash flow.

Could it double again? Or rise over 50% over time? The math says yes: if Shopify continues compounding revenue at 20%+, expands margins, and drives deeper monetization across payments, AI, and enterprise clients, a valuation near $350 billion could be possible.

Now, we apply a risk assessment framework while constructing the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, which, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period — and has achieved returns exceeding 105% since its inception. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.

Invest with Trefis Market-Beating Portfolios

See all Trefis Price Estimates