SHOP’s 5.6% One Day Pop Begs The Question: Is APP Better Instead?

SHOP: Shopify logo
SHOP
Shopify

APP offers superior revenue growth across key periods, better profitability, and and relatively lower (though still expensive) valuation.

  • APP’s quarterly revenue grew 40.3%, vs. SHOP’s 26.8%.
  • In addition, its Last 12 Months growth came in at 41.6%, ahead of SHOP’s 26.5%.
  • APP leads on profitability over both periods – LTM margin of 46.5% and 3-year average of 25.6%.

That is one way to look at stocks. Trefis High Quality Portfolio evaluates much more, and is designed to reduce stock-specific risk while giving upside exposure

Valuation & Performance Overview

SHOP APP Preferred
Valuation
P/EBIT Ratio 137.7 51.8 APP
Revenue Growth
Last Quarter 26.8% 40.3% APP
Last 12 Months 26.5% 41.6% APP
Last 3 Year Average 25.3% 42.2% APP
Margins
Last 12 Months 12.7% 46.5% APP
Last 3 Year Average -0.0% 25.6% APP
Momentum
Last 3 Year Return 305.3% 1015.2% SHOP

Historical Market Performance

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2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Total [1] Avg Best
Returns
SHOP Return 185% 22% -75% 124% 36% 13% 194%
APP Return -89% 278% 713% 10% 256% <===
S&P 500 Return 16% 27% -19% 24% 23% 6% 94%
Monthly Win Rates [3]
SHOP Win Rate 67% 67% 25% 67% 50% 50% 54%
APP Win Rate 75% 8% 83% 83% 50% 50%
S&P 500 Win Rate 58% 75% 42% 67% 75% 50% 61% <===
Max Drawdowns [4]
SHOP Max Drawdown -19% -8% -81% 0% -33% -28% -28%
APP Max Drawdown -90% -8% -4% -32% -22%
S&P 500 Max Drawdown -31% -1% -25% -1% -2% -15% -12% <===

[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] 2025 data is for the year till date (YTD)
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year