VRSK Stock Falls -18% With A 6-day losing spree On $4B Storm Loss Estimate
Verisk Analytics (VRSK) – a predictive analytics and decision support solutions provider – hit a 6-day losing streak, with cumulative losses over this period amounting to -18%. The company’s market cap has crashed by about $5.5 Bil over the last 6 days and currently stands at $25 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 20.3% compared to 1.7% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity or a trap.
What Triggered The Slide?
[1] Winter Storm Fern Loss Estimate
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- Projected Up To $4 Billion In Insured Losses
- Third Costliest US Winter Storm On Record
- Impact: Sharp Negative Stock Reaction, Stock Hit 52-Week Low
[2] Information Services Sector Selloff
- Structural Concerns Over AI Competition
- Broad Decline In Software And Data Analytics Stocks
- Impact: Indiscriminate Sector-Wide Selling, Increased Market Volatility
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There is not much to fear in VRSK stock given its overall Strong operating performance and financial condition. This is aligned with the stock’s High valuation because of which we think it is Fairly Priced (For details, see Buy or Sell VRSK).
But here is the real interesting point.
You are reading about this -18% move after it happened. The market has already priced in the news. To avoid the next loser before the headlines, you need predictive signals, not notifications. Our High Quality Portfolio has a risk model designed to reduce exposure to losers.
Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for VRSK stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | VRSK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | -0.5% | 0.5% |
| 6D (Current Streak) | -18.1% | 0.4% |
| 1M (21D) | -20.0% | 0.6% |
| 3M (63D) | -16.1% | 3.6% |
| YTD 2026 | -20.3% | 1.7% |
| 2025 | -18.2% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | 16.0% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | 36.2% | 24.2% |
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 66 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 25 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 26 | 17 |
| 4D | 19 | 1 |
| 5D | 12 | 3 |
| 6D | 6 | 3 |
| 7D or more | 3 | 1 |
| Total >=3 D | 66 | 25 |
Key Financials for Verisk Analytics (VRSK)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $2.7 Bil | $2.9 Bil |
| Operating Income | $1.1 Bil | $1.3 Bil |
| Net Income | $614.4 Mil | $957.5 Mil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ2 | 2025 FQ3 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $772.6 Mil | $768.3 Mil |
| Operating Income | $354.3 Mil | $345.9 Mil |
| Net Income | $253.3 Mil | $225.5 Mil |
The losing streak VRSK stock is currently on doesn’t inspire much confidence among investors. In contrast, Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.