How Will Starbucks Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. The company has $112 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $38 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $3.4 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.4 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Starbucks’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 40% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 42% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 8 positive returns = 6.2%, and median of the 12 negative returns = -3.1%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 1/28/2026 | -0.6% | -2.8% | 3.1% |
| 10/29/2025 | -1.2% | -1.5% | 1.6% |
| 7/29/2025 | -0.2% | -3.0% | -5.1% |
| 4/29/2025 | -5.7% | -2.4% | -0.2% |
| 1/28/2025 | 8.1% | 10.1% | 14.6% |
| 10/22/2024 | 0.9% | 0.6% | 2.1% |
| 7/30/2024 | 2.6% | -0.8% | 26.3% |
| 4/30/2024 | -15.9% | -18.1% | -10.3% |
| 1/30/2024 | -1.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% |
| 11/2/2023 | 9.5% | 14.2% | 9.2% |
| 8/1/2023 | 0.9% | -0.6% | -1.5% |
| 5/2/2023 | -9.2% | -6.8% | -14.4% |
| 2/2/2023 | -4.4% | -2.4% | -3.3% |
| 11/3/2022 | 8.5% | 15.0% | 23.7% |
| 8/2/2022 | 4.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% |
| 5/3/2022 | 9.8% | -3.3% | 7.6% |
| 2/1/2022 | -1.0% | -3.9% | -6.9% |
| 10/28/2021 | -6.3% | -0.9% | -1.8% |
| 7/27/2021 | -2.9% | -5.5% | -7.9% |
| 4/27/2021 | -3.2% | -1.8% | -2.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| # Negative | 12 | 14 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -2.6% | -4.2% |
| Max Positive | 9.8% | 15.0% | 26.3% |
| Max Negative | -15.9% | -18.1% | -14.4% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -22.2% | 5.5% | -21.6% |
| 3Y History | 9.7% | 0.1% | -45.7% |
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